核电和确保能源转型(英)-IEA.pdf

Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions From today’s challenges to tomorrow’s clean energy systems The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 10 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t CCUS = carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Source: IEA (2021), World Energy Outlook 2021. Nuclear power has made a major contribution to slowing the rise in global emissions of CO 2 since the 1970s. Around 66 Gt of CO 2 was avoided globally between 1971 and 2 Australia, Canada, Chile, the 27 members of the European Union, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar PV Bioenergy Geothermal CSP Marine Coal with CCUS TW h Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions Nuclear power in the world today Page | 15 I E A . A ll r ight s r es er v ed. 2020. 3 Without the contribution of nuclear power, total emissions from electricity generation would have been almost 20% higher and total energy-related emissions 6% higher over that period. Advanced economies accounted for over 85% of these avoided emissions: 20 Gt, or over 40% of total emissions from electricity generation, in the European Union and 24 Gt, or 25%, in the United States. Without nuclear power, emissions from electricity generation would have been around one-quarter higher in Japan and about 50% higher in Korea and Canada. Cumulative CO 2 emissions avoided by nuclear power by country/region IEA. All rights reserved. Market leadership is shifting away from advanced economies Almost 70% of the global reactor fleet is in advanced economies, but this fleet is ageing. There are big differences in the average age of nuclear capacity across regions, ranging from just 5 years in the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) to 15 years in India, 36 years in North America and 38 years in Europe. Market leadership has been shifting to the Russian Federation (hereafter “Russia”) and China: 27 of the 31 reactors that began construction since 2017 are of Russian or Chinese design. 3 This assumes that other sources of electricity that were expanding alongside nuclear power would have been scaled up proportionally in its place. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Gt Emerging market and developing economies Other advanced economies Canada Korea Japan United States European Union Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions Nuclear power in the world today Page | 16 I E A . A ll r ight s r es er v ed. Age distribution of operational nuclear capacity by region, end of 2021 IEA. All rights reserved. Note: OECD Europe includes Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, Netherlands, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. OECD Americas includes Canada, Mexico and the United States. OECD Asia includes Japan and Korea. Source: IAEA Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). Investment in nuclear power in advanced economies has stalled over the last two decades because of high costs of new projects, long construction times, unfavourable electricity market and policy environments, and, in some countries, a lack of public confidence after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. Construction of first-of-a-kind Generation III reactors 4 has been subject to delays and significant cost overruns. The competitiveness of new nuclear power plants is further undermined by the fact that most power markets still do not adequately remunerate the low emissions and dispatchable attributes of nuclear power. Retirements of nuclear power plants are set to accelerate in the coming years, particularly in advanced economies, as existing plants reach the end of their operating licences, are forced to close due to policy-driven phase-outs or cease operation for economic reasons. Lifetime extensions will, nonetheless, slow the pace of retirements to some degree. For example, the United States has to date issued 20-year extensions of the original 40-year operating licences for 88 of the country’s 93 reactors currently in operation, while 11 reactors have applied for a further 20-year extension, bringing their lifetimes to 80 years. France has developed a rolling 10-year extension programme for plants that meet safety requirements, while plants in Hungary, Finland, the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom have also recently received 20-year extensions. In total, these extensions have already prevented the closure of nearly 4 This generation of reactors aims to enhance safety, relative to the preceding generation, by incorporating design changes that lower the risk of a severe accident and, should a severe accident occur, by using appropriate mitigation systems to limit its impact on the population and the environment. 0 15 30 45 60 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 GW Age (years) OECD Europe OECD Americas OECD Asia Russia China India Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions Nuclear power in the world today Page | 17 I E A . A ll r ight s r es er v ed. one-quarter of total capacity that would otherwise have occurred by 2020, a share that rises to almost 40% by 2030. Investment has started to recover, driven mainly by China and Russia Nuclear power capacity additions dwindled during the 2000s, but are now starting to pick up, particularly in China and Russia. Capacity additions peaked in the 1980s, when 230 GW of new nuclear power plants were brought on line across the globe, primarily in Europe and North America. But new construction slowed sharply in the 1990s in the wake of the major nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979 and Chernobyl in Soviet-era Ukraine in 1986, with just 25 GW of new capacity added. Capacity additions rebounded to 46 GW in the 2000s and 56 GW in the 2010s, despite the impact of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident in Japan (much of the capacity added since then was already under construction). Another 6 GW was commissioned in 2020 and 5.6 GW in 2021. China contributed most of the capacity that came online since 2010. 2021 saw a surge in construction starts, with ten units breaking ground compared to the four to five per year that had been typical in recent years. Overall, there are 52 reactors currently under construction, totalling 54 GW of capacity. China is currently building 16.1 GW, Korea 5.6 GW, Turkey 4.4 GW, India 4.2 GW, Russia 3.8 GW, the United Kingdom 3.3 GW and other countries combined 16.6 GW. Of the 31 reactors that commenced construction since the beginning of 2017, 27 of these are either of Russian design (17) or Chinese design (10) with two of European design under construction in the United Kingdom and two Korean-designed units in Korea. Russia dominates the export market: all ten Chinese-designed units are being built in China, only three Russian-designed units began construction in Russia, with the rest starting construction in Turkey (3), India (4), China (4), Bangladesh (2) and Iran (1). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raises questions about the export prospects for Russian- built nuclear plants. Finland has cancelled a contract, signed in 2013, for Rosatom to build a plant in Finland, citing delays and increased risks due to the war in Ukraine. Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions Nuclear power in the world today Page | 18 I E A . A ll r ight s r es er v ed. Nuclear power construction starts by national origin of technology, 2017-2022 IEA. All rights reserved. Source: IAEA Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). Net zero pledges are reviving interest in nuclear’s potential The number of countries with net zero targets has increased rapidly over the last few years. More than 70 countries, covering 76% of global energy-related CO 2 emissions, have now adopted such a pledge, covering either CO 2 or greenhouse gas emissions more broadly. This compares with only six countries at the end of 2018. In addition, more than 60 other countries have pledged to reach net zero or carbon neutrality, but without specifying a timeframe. These pledges are not yet underpinned by all the specific policies and measures that will be required for their realisation, but they are prompting deliberations on the mix of low emissions technologies, including energy efficiency, that can move countries towards these goals. Nuclear energy has been one of the beneficiaries. Significant developments in support of nuclear power 2020-2022 Country Policy United States • As part of the 2022 Civil Nuclear Credit Program, a USD 6 billion investment to help preserve the existing U.S. reactor fleet. • Allocation of USD 8 billion to demonstrate clean hydrogen hubs, including at least one hub dedicated to the production of hydrogen with nuclear energy. • Following the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program, a total of USD 3.2 billion investment over seven years on two nuclear projects. 0 2 4 6 8 10 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Year to date N um ber of r eac t or s t ar t s Other Chinese Russian Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions Nuclear power in the world today Page | 19 I E A . A ll r ight s r es er v ed. Country Policy Canada • The 2020 SMR Action Plan lays out the steps for the deployment of SMRs. Several projects have obtained federal and provincial government funding. • Announcement of an SMR project at Darlington based on GE- Hitachi technology to be commissioned by the late 2020s. France • Following the France 2030 investment plan, announcement to extend the lifetime of all nuclear reactors that can be extended while ensuring safety. • Announcement of plans to build six new large reactors starting in 2028 at a cost of around EUR 50 billion, with an option to build eight more by 2050. • A EUR 1 billion investment to develop innovative reactors, including a small modular reactor by 2030. United Kingdom • As part of the 2022 Energy Security Strategy ambitions for eight new large reactors, as well as small modular reactors, to achieve nuclear generation capacity of 24 GW by 2050, or around 25% of the forecast electricity demand. • The Nuclear Energy (Financing) Act, enacted in 2022, made a provision for the implementation of a regulated asset base model. • In 2021 a government commitment of GBP 210 million in funding to develop an SMR, matched by GBP 250 million in private investment. Belgium • In March 2022, the Belgian government decided to take the necessary steps to extend the lifetime of two reactors by a decade through 2035. Netherlands • Discussions in 2022 on the construction of two new nuclear stations. Poland • The 2020 Polish Nuclear Power Programme plans the construction of large reactors with a total capacity of between 6 GW and 9 GW. • In 2022 the government agreed to the deployment of SMRs based on US technology to replace existing coal-fired co-generation plants. Korea • The new government elected in 2022 plans to support lifetime extensions of current facilities, restart construction at two sites, develop and enhance cooperation on SMRs, seek to build ten plants overseas by 2030. Japan • In 2022, the government announced it would increase energy security with a view to restart existing reactors provided they are safe. China • Under the 14th Five Year Plan period (2021-2025), maintain a steady pace of construction setting the goal of about 70 GW by 2025, versus 53 GW at the beginning of 2022. India • Start of construction of a new ten reactor fleet expected between 2023 and 2025, for a total of 9 GW. • Political steps towards the construction of six large reactors using French technology. Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions Nuclear power in the world today Page | 20 I E A . A ll r ight s r es er v ed. Renewables, particularly wind and solar PV, are typically foreseen as providing the largest sources of electricity as countries move to a net zero future. However, a growing number of countries have also announced plans to support new nuclear investment. For example, President Macron of France announced in February 2022 plans to build six new large reactors starting in 2028 at a cost of about EUR 50 billion, with an option to build eight more by 2050. The French government previously pledged EUR 1 billion to develop innovative reactors, including a small modular reactor by 2030. China plans to continue its current pace of construction of nuclear reactors in order to help meet its goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. The newly-elected President of Korea made an election pledge to reverse the country’s nuclear phase- out by supporting lifetime extensions of current facilities and restarting construction at two sites while also seeking to build ten plants overseas using Korean technology by 2030. Today’s focus on energy security provides an opening for nuclear Deployment of nuclear energy increases the diversity of the energy mix, can facilitate the rise of variable renewables such as wind and solar, and also provides an opportunity – at scale – to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. The oil security crisis of the 1970s spurred the first wave of nuclear new-builds: in the decade that followed the first oil shock, construction started on almost 170 GW of nuclear power plants; these plants still represent 40% of the nuclear capacity that is operating today. If policy support is forthcoming and costs are kept under control, the renewed interest in nuclear today could point in a similar direction. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated the tightness that was already apparent in fuel markets around the world. This has in turn driven up electricity prices. According to the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), retail electricity prices were on average 30% higher year-on-year in February 2022, with prices increasing the most in places that depend heavily on natural gas in power generation, like Madrid, where they have risen 55%, and Rome (80%). Europe’s push to diversify away from Russian supply could maintain upward pressure on fuel prices for some time to come. Nuclear energy is one of the options that can be deployed by governments to reduce reliance on fossil fuels for the power sector, in particular for natural gas. For example, Korea’s plans to lift the share of nuclear in Korea’s total generation would, in our assessment, reduce natural gas use in the electricity sector by 5 bcm to 7 bcm per year within the next decade. Nuclear Power and Secu