2035年展望报告—降低太阳能、风能和电池的成本可以加速我们的清洁电力未来--UC Berkeley.pdf

PLUMMETING SOLAR, WIND, AND BATTERY COSTS CAN ACCELERATE OUR CLEAN ELECTRICITY FUTURE JUNE 2020Global carbon emissions must be halved by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C and avoid catastrophic climate impacts. Most existing studies, however, examine 2050 as the year that deep decarbonization of electric power systems can be achieved—a timeline that would also hinder decarbonization of the buildings, industrial, and transportation sectors. In light of recent trends, these studies present overly conservative estimates of decarbonization potential. Plummeting costs for wind and solar energy have dramatically changed the prospects for rapid, cost-effective expansion of renewable energy. At the same time, battery energy storage has become a viable option for cost- effectively integrating high levels of wind and solar generation into electricity grids. This report uses the latest renewable energy and battery cost data to demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of achieving 90% clean (carbon-free) electricity in the United States by 2035. Two central cases are simulated using state-of-the-art capacity- expansion and production-cost models: The No New Policy case assumes continuation of current state and federal policies; and the 90% Clean case requires that a 90% clean electricity share is reached by 2035. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2035 THE REPORT | 2KEY FINDINGS Table ES-1 shows the report’s findings at a glance, and the following discussion expands on these findings. CURRENT GRID (2019) NO NEW POLICY (2035) 90% CLEAN (2035) Highly Decarbonized Grid Dependable Grid Electricity Cost Reductions - Feasible Scale-Up - Highest Number of Jobs Supported - Largest Environmental Savings - STRONG POLICIES ARE REQUIRED TO CREATE A 90% CLEAN GRID BY 2035 The 90% Clean case assumes strong policies drive 90% clean electricity by 2035. The No New Policy case achieves only 55% clean electricity in 2035 (Figure ES-1). A companion report from Energy Innovation identifies institutional, market, and regulatory changes needed to facilitate the rapid transformation to a 90% clean power sector in the United States. TABLE ES-1. U.S. Power System Characteristics by Case Modeled in the Report 2035 THE REPORT | 3THE 90% CLEAN GRID IS DEPENDABLE WITHOUT COAL PLANTS OR NEW NATURAL GAS PLANTS Retaining existing hydropower and nuclear capacity (after accounting for planned retirements), and much of the existing natural gas capacity combined with new battery storage, is sufficient to meet U.S. electricity demand dependably (i.e., every hour of the year) with a 90% clean grid in 2035. Under the 90% Clean case, all existing coal plants are retired by 2035, and no new fossil fuel plants are built. During normal periods of generation and demand, wind, solar, and batteries provide 70% of annual generation, while hydropower and nuclear provide 20%. During periods of very high demand and/or very low renewable generation, existing natural gas, hydropower, and nuclear plants combined with battery storage cost-effectively compensate for mismatches between demand and wind/solar generation. Generation from natural gas plants constitutes about 10% of total annual electricity generation, which is about 70% lower than their generation in 2019. ELECTRICITY COSTS FROM THE 90% CLEAN GRID ARE LOWER THAN TODAY’S COSTS Wholesale electricity costs, which include the cost of generation plus incremental transmission investments, are about 10% lower in 2035 under the 90% Clean case than they are today, mainly owing to low renewable energy and battery costs (Figure ES- 2). Pervasiveness of low-cost renewable energy and battery storage across the United States requires investment mainly in transmission spurs connecting renewable generation to existing FIGURE ES-1. Generation Mixes for the 90% Clean Case (left) and No New Policy Case (right), 2020–2035 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 ANNUAL GENERATION | 90% CLEAN ANNUAL GENERATION (TWh/yr) COAL GAS NUCLEAR WIND HYDRO OTHER GEOTHERMAL BIOPOWER SOLAR 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 ANNUAL GENERATION (TWh/yr) COAL GAS NUCLEAR WIND HYDRO OTHER GEOTHERMAL BIOPOWER SOLAR ANNUAL GENERATION | NO NEW POLICY 202O 2025 2030 2035 202O 2025 2030 2035 2035 THE REPORT | 4high-capacity transmission lines or load centers. Hence, additional transmission-related costs and siting conflicts are modest. Relying on natural gas for only 10% of generation avoids large investments for infrequently used capacity, helping to avoid major new stranded-asset costs. Retaining natural gas generation averts the need to build excess renewable energy and long-duration storage capacity—helping achieve 90% clean electricity while keeping costs down. While still lower than today’s costs, wholesale electricity costs are 12% higher under the 90% Clean case than under the No New Policy case in 2035. However, this comparison does not account for the value of emissions reductions or job creation under the 90% Clean case. 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 202O 2025 2030 2035 202O 2025 2030 2035 $/MWh (2018 REAL) $/MWh (2018 REAL) 90% CLEAN W/ ENV COST NO NEW POLICY W/ ENV COST 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 NO NEW POLICY W/O ENV COST 90% CLEAN W/O ENV COST THE 90% CLEAN GRID AVOIDS $1.2 TRILLION IN HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGES, INCLUDING 85,000 PREMATURE DEATHS, THROUGH 2050 The 90% Clean case nearly eliminates emissions from the U.S. power sector by 2035, resulting in environmental and health benefits largely driven by reduced mortality related to electricity generation (Figure ES-3). Compared with the No New Policy case, the 90% Clean case reduces carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 88% by 2035. It also reduces exposure to fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) matter by reducing nitrogen oxide (NO x ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions by 96% and 99%, respectively. 1 As a result, the 90% Clean case avoids over $1.2 trillion in health and environmental costs, including 85,000 avoided premature deaths, through 2050. These savings equate roughly to 2 cents/kWh of wholesale 1 Primary PM 2.5 emissions reductions are not estimated by the model, resulting in a conservative estimate of reduced PM 2.5 exposure. FIGURE ES-2. Wholesale Electricity Costs with (left) and without (right) Environmental Costs, for the 90% Clean and No New Policy Cases 2035 THE REPORT | 5electricity costs, which makes the 90% Clean case the lowest-net- cost option when environmental and health costs are considered. FIGURE ES-3. Emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x in the 90% Clean and No New Policy Cases, 2020–2035 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 MILLION TONS/YR 90% CLEAN NO NEW POLICY CO 2 EMISSIONS (MILLION TONS/YR) 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2020 2025 2030 2035 90% CLEAN NO NEW POLICY SO 2 EMISSIONS (MILLION TONS/YR) MILLION TONS/YR 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2020 2025 2030 2035 NO NEW POLICY NO X EMISSIONS (MILLION TONS/YR) 90% CLEAN MILLION TONS/YR SCALING-UP RENEWABLES TO ACHIEVE 90% CLEAN ENERGY BY 2035 IS FEASIBLE To achieve the 90% Clean case by 2035, 1,100 GW of new wind and solar generation must be built, averaging about 70 GW per year (Figure ES-4). Recent U.S. precedents for natural gas and wind/solar expansion suggest that a renewable energy buildout of this magnitude is challenging but feasible. New renewable resources can be built cost-effectively in all regions of the country. 2035 THE REPORT | 6FIGURE ES-4. Cumulative New Capacity Additions in the 90% Clean Case, 2020–2035 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 CUMULATIVE NEW CAPACITY ADDITIONS NEW CAPACITY (GW) Battery Storage Solar Wind 202O 2025 2030 2035 THE 90% CLEAN GRID CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ENERGY-SECTOR EMPLOYMENT The 90% Clean case supports a total of 29 million job-years cumulatively during 2020–2035. Employment related to the energy sector increases by approximately 8.5 million net job- years, as increased employment from expanding renewable energy and battery storage more than replaces lost employment related to declining fossil fuel generation. The No New Policy case requires one-third fewer jobs, for a total of 20 million job-years over the study period. These jobs include direct, indirect, and induced jobs related to construction, manufacturing, operations and maintenance, and the supply chain. Overall, the 90% Clean case supports over 500,000 more jobs each year compared to the No New Policy case. ACCELERATING THE CLEAN ENERGY FUTURE Establishing a target year of 2035, rather than the typical 2050 target, helps align expectations for power-sector decarbonization with climate realities while informing the policy dialogue needed to achieve such an ambitious goal. Aiming for 90% clean electricity—rather than 100%—by 2035 is also important for envisioning rapid, cost-effective decarbonization. By 2035, emerging technologies such as firm, low-carbon power should be mature enough to begin to replace the remaining natural gas generation as the nation accelerates toward 100%, cross- sector decarbonization. Reaching 90% zero-carbon electricity in the United States by 2035 would contribute a 27% reduction in economy-wide carbon emissions from 2010 levels. 2035 THE REPORT | 7Executive Summary 2 1. Introduction 12 2. Methods and Data Summary 13 3. Key Findings 16 3.1 Strong Policies Are Required to Create a 90% Clean Grid by 2035 16 3.2 The 90% Clean Grid Is Dependable without Coal Plants or New Natural Gas Plants 17 3.3 Electricity Costs from the 90% Clean Grid Are Lower than Today’s Costs 22 3.4 Scaling-Up Renewables to Achieve 90% Clean Energy by 2035 Is Feasible 27 3.5 The 90% Clean Grid Can Significantly Increase Energy-Sector Employment 28 3.6 The 90% Clean Grid Avoids $1.2 Trillion in Health and Environmental Damages, Including 85,000 Premature Deaths, Through 2050 30 4. Caveats and Future Work 34 References 36 TABLE OF CONENTSFunding was provided by the MacArthur Foundation. NAMES AND AFFILIATIONS OF AUTHORS AND TECHNICAL REVIEW COMMITTEE Amol Phadke, 1 * Umed Paliwal, 1 Nikit Abhyankar, 1 Taylor McNair, 2 Ben Paulos, 3 David Wooley, 1 * Ric O’Connell 2 * 1 Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California Berkeley, 2 GridLab, 3 PaulosAnalysis. * Corresponding Authors Below are the members of the Technical Review Committee (TRC). The TRC provided input and guidance related to study design and evaluation, but the contents and conclusions of the report, including any errors and omissions, are the sole responsibility of the authors. TRC member affiliations in no way imply that those organizations support or endorse this work in any way. Sonia Aggarwal, Energy Innovation Mark Ahlstrom, Energy Systems Integration Group Steve Beuning, Holy Cross Energy Aaron Bloom, Energy Systems Integration Group Severin Borenstein, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley Ben Hobbs, Johns Hopkins University Aidan Tuohy, Electric Power Research Institute ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following people provided invaluable technical support, input, and assistance in making this report possible. Phoebe Sweet, Courtney St. John, Chelsea Eakin, Lindsay Hamilton, Climate Nexus Silvio Marcacci, Energy Innovation Jarett Zuboy, independent contractor Betony Jones, Inclusive Economics Simone Cobb, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California Berkeley Maninder Thind and Julian Marshall, University of Washington Yinong Sun, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Zane Selvans, Catalyst Cooperative We are thankful to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for making its ReEDS model publicly available, as well as all their scenarios and the Annual Technology Baseline. Appendices, supporting reports, and data visualizations can be found at 2035report.com 2035 THE REPORT | 9ABOUT GRIDLAB GridLab is an innovative non-profit that provides technical grid expertise to enhance policy decision- making and to ensure a rapid transition to a reliable, cost-effective, and low-carbon future. ABOUT UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY GOLDMAN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY The Center for Environmental Public Policy, housed at UC Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy, takes an integrated approach to solving environmental problems and supports the creation and implementation of public policies based on exacting analytical standards that carefully define problems and match them with the most impactful solutions.In October 2018, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that global carbon emissions must be halved by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C and avoid catastrophic climate impacts (UN IPCC 2018). Most existing studies, however, examine 2050 as the year that deep decarbonization of electric power systems can be achieved—a timeline that would also hinder decarbonization of the buildings, industrial, and transportation sectors through electrification. 2 These studies offer little hope that climate change impacts can be held to a manageable level in this century. Yet, in light of recent trends, these studies—even those published in the past few years—present overly conservative estimates of decarbonization potential. Plummeting costs and cost projections for wind and solar energy have dramatically changed the prospects for rapid, cost-effective decarbonization (Figure 1). At the same time, battery energy storage has become a viable option for cost-effectively integrating high levels of wind and solar generation into electricity grids. 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 $/MWH (2018 REAL) WIND LCOE, BEST CAPACITY FACTOR | ATB LOW CASE SOLAR PV LCOE, BEST CAPACITY FACTOR | ATB LOW CASE ATB 2015 ATB 2015 ATB 2016 ATB 2016 ATB 2017 ATB 2017 ATB 2019 ATB 2019 ATB 2018 ATB 2018 2 Broadly, these studies do not assess near-complete power-sector decarbonization (80% decarbonization or greater) before 2050. The one study (MacDonald et al. 2016) that assesses complete decarbonization of the U.S. power sector by 2030 does not assume a significant role for battery storage, as our report does. Instead, it relies on expansion of the U.S. transmission network, which is technically and economically challenging (Joskow 2004). See Appendix 1 for a brief review of some of these studies. 1 INTRODUCTION FIGURE 1. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Low- Case Cost Projections Made 2015–2019 for Years Through 2050 Wind (left) and solar photovoltaic (PV, right) levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) projections are shown by the year that each projection was made in the NREL ATB (NREL 2015; 2016; 2017; 2018; 2019) using ATB low-case assumptions and best capacity factors. LCOE projections were revised downwards in almost every year during this period. $/MWH (2018 REAL)This report uses the latest renewable energy and battery cost information to demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of achieving 90% “clean” electricity in the United States by 2035—much more quickly than projected by most recent studies. Generation from any resou