2035报告系列-美国海上风电潜力（英文版）-加州大学伯克利分校.pdf

ABUNDANT, AFFORDABLE OFFSHORE WIND CAN ACCELERATE OUR CLEAN ELECTRICITY FUTURE Gary Norton / DOEEXECUTIVE SUMMARY Plummeting costs and technical performance improvements of offshore wind have dramatically enhanced the prospects for near-term power sector decarbonization. The high resource quality of offshore wind in the United States, coupled with rapidly falling technology costs, makes it possible for offshore wind to provide 10-25% of total electricity generation in the U.S. power system in 2050 without substantially impacting wholesale electricity costs. This report, 2035 Report 3.0, examines the prospect of achieving 90% clean electricity by 2035 and 95% clean electricity by 2050. Three scenarios — Low, Medium, and High Ambition — detail the electricity system impacts of increased offshore wind growth providing 10-25% of total generation. Global carbon emissions must be halved by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change (UN IPCC, 2023). While the United States continues to make progress on national decarbonization trends, with increases in clean energy produc- tion delivering cuts in power sector emissions, 2022 still saw a slight rise in the nation’s overall greenhouse gas emissions (Rhodium Group, 2023). For the U.S. to achieve net zero emissions, in which the nation emits no more carbon into the atmosphere than can be removed, the U.S. must significant- ly ramp up clean energy production while electrifying other sectors of the economy, such as buildings, transportation, and industry — likely causing U.S. electricity demand to triple by 2050. Dennis Schroeder / NREL 2035 3.0 THE REPORT | iAround the globe, nations have begun to grasp the opportunity on the waters. The global pipeline of offshore wind projects that have been announced or are in pre-construction phases now stands at over 700 GW (GEM, 2023). The European Union will endeavor to build nearly 400 GW of offshore wind by 2050, while China installed 20 GW in the last two years alone (European Commission, 2023; GWEC, 2023). While the Biden Administration has a target to deploy 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050, increasing offshore wind ambition beyond these current goals could accelerate the nation’s transition to net zero emissions. THE UNITED STATES HAS HIGH-QUALITY AND ABUNDANT OFFSHORE WIND POTENTIAL The United States has some of the highest offshore wind potential in the world. When combined, the U.S. coastline, including the Great Lakes region, has the technical potential of nearly 4,000 GW of offshore wind capacity. Over 1,000 GW of this potential is highly productive, with capacity factors above 50%, suggesting offshore wind can provide affordable and reliable clean energy generation across the nation. OFFSHORE WIND CAN BE INTEGRATED INTO THE U.S. POWER GRID WITHOUT IMPACTING WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY COSTS Offshore wind costs have dropped rapidly over the past few years, and the Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts prices to fall to $53/MWh by 2035, cheaper than the levelized cost of a new combined cycle gas plant or coal plant, and on par with existing solar and wind projects (WETO, 2023). As a result of improved performance and falling costs, wholesale electricity costs (the cost of generation plus new transmission) are comparable in all Offshore Wind Policy scenarios. Wholesale electricity costs in the High Ambition scenario, in which the nation deploys 750 GW of offshore wind by 2050, are just 2.2% higher in 2035 than a Baseline scenario with minimal offshore wind deployment and 0.25% higher than Baseline in 2050. Wholesale electricity costs in the Low and Medium Ambition offshore wind scenarios are both lower than Baseline in 2050. 2035 3.0 THE REPORT | iiOFFSHORE WIND COMPLEMENTS LAND-BASED RENEWABLES TO MEET INCREASED ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN A NET ZERO ECONOMY To achieve net zero carbon emissions economy-wide requires the elimination of fossil fuels and the transition to electric end-uses (such as electric vehicles and heat pumps), which will likely lead to a tripling in electricity demand by 2050. The nation will have to significantly increase annual deployments of clean energy resources and expand the available suite of technologies in order to meet future clean energy generation needs. An expanded commitment to offshore wind could bolster the technology such that offshore wind could support 10-25% of the nation’s electricity demand by 2050. Achieving net zero emissions in the U.S. requires the installation of over 3,500 GW of new renewable resources through 2050. The annual deployment targets across all scenarios are ambitious, requiring 100 GW of new land-based solar and wind deployed each year through 2050 on average, and nearly 40 GW of new offshore wind each year between 2035-2050. While the U.S. installed a record 28 GW of renewable capacity in 2021, achieving net zero goals without offshore wind will require the nation to install land-based wind and solar at five times that rate. Increasing offshore wind deployments would reduce the land-based installation rate to three or four times 2021 levels. SCALING THE OFFSHORE WIND SUPPLY CHAIN WILL REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND ROBUST DOMESTIC POLICY SUPPORT The development of a robust offshore wind domestic supply chain is a necessary step towards achieving the United States’ ambitious clean energy goals. While researchers have identified a pathway to developing the supply chains needed to support the Biden Administration’s 30 GW by 2030 target, scaling the offshore wind industry beyond that will require targeted domestic policy support and infrastructure investment. In order for offshore wind to provide 10-25% of the nation’s electricity needs, cumulative investment in the supply chain would need to exceed $260 billion through 2045. Manufacturing the amount of blades, nacelles, towers, and cables required to meet the Medium and High Ambition targets will require a four or five fold increase in the estimated number of facilities needed to meet the 30 GW by 2030 target. Lack of port capacity and wind turbine installation vessels will likely remain the largest bottleneck to scaling the U.S. offshore wind industry. 2035 3.0 THE REPORT | iiiHIGH-QUALITY OFFSHORE WIND IS AVAILABLE ACROSS ALL COASTAL STATES, EXPANDING THE AREA AVAILABLE FOR DEPLOYMENT WHILE DISPERSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS ACROSS THE NATION The U.S. is fortunate in its abundant coastline and high-quality wind potential across all major coastal areas. The quality of the offshore wind resource suggests that the U.S. can deploy significant new offshore wind capacity along the U.S. coastline, bringing clean energy and the accompanying economic benefits to a majority of the population. As offshore wind deployment increases, the area directly impacted by renewable energy infrastructure decreases relative to the Baseline scenario. Because of the high power density of offshore wind resources, the U.S. could generate more clean power on a smaller footprint offshore. COORDINATED TRANSMISSION PLANNING CAN REDUCE INTERCONNECTION COSTS AND ACCELERATE DEPLOYMENT TIMELINES A net zero electricity grid will require significant new investment in transmission infrastructure in order to distribute clean energy generation across the nation. The transition to net zero will require doubling existing transmission infrastructure. By clustering multiple offshore wind farms together and connecting them to the onshore grid using a single, high- voltage transmission line, offshore transmission investments can be reduced by approximately 35% relative to a business-as-usual transmission approach. Clustering enables developers to build fewer, higher capacity lines which reduces total assets and minimizes energy losses. Offshore wind provides an opportunity to reimagine the transmission planning process and avoid the bottlenecks that have plagued land-based renewable energy deployment. OFFSHORE WIND GENERATION CAN SUPPORT A DEPENDABLE GRID TO MEET NEAR-NET ZERO EMISSIONS A diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies, bolstered by highly productive and widely deployed offshore wind, is critical to ensuring future grid dependability with the anticipated increase in energy demand through 2050. Not only is offshore wind an abundant resource, its generation patterns are particularly complementary to existing land-based wind and solar and well-matched to electricity demand trends. Over the course of an average year, offshore wind can pair with other clean resources to provide nearly 95% of total electricity generation in 2050. 2035 3.0 THE REPORT | ivSCALING THE DOMESTIC OFFSHORE WIND INDUSTRY COULD CREATE NEARLY 390,000 JOBS AND SPUR ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COUNTRY When isolating the impacts of just offshore wind development, the High Ambition offshore wind policy scenario could support approximately 390,000 jobs across the economy in 2050. A scenario in which a greater percentage of goods and materials are sourced domestically — a policy goal of the Inflation Reduction Act — leads to additional job creation, while expanding employment and economic benefits across the entire country. The benefits of offshore wind thus expand far beyond the U.S. coastline. DIVERSIFYING THE CLEAN ENERGY MIX TO POWER A NET ZERO FUTURE Scaling the offshore wind industry to provide 10-25% of total electricity generation in 2050 will require an ambitious, long-term policy agenda, robust industrial policy support, and large investments in the supply chain, infrastructure, and transmission systems. In order to achieve net zero targets, the U.S. will need to deploy new renewable energy capacity at nearly four times today’s annual rate of deployment. But the benefits can be huge — development of the U.S. offshore wind industry would provide a highly productive, reliable clean energy resource needed to help achieve a 2050 economy-wide net zero target, alongside ambitious land-based renewable energy development. 2035 3.0 THE REPORT | vTABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary i Introduction 1 Scenarios, Data, and Methods 6 Offshore Wind Potential and Profiles 7 Power Sector Analysis 8 Grid Dependability Assessment 8 Key Assumptions 9 Scenario Design 11 Key Findings 15 The United States has high-quality, 17 abundant offshore wind resources Offshore wind can be integrated into 19 the U.S. power grid without impacting wholesale electricity costs relative to Baseline Offshore wind complements land-based 21 renewables to meet increased electricity demand in a net zero economy Scaling up the supply chain will require 26 significant capital investment and robust domestic policy support High-quality wind resources off the 31 shores of all coastal states increases opportunities for deployment while dispersing economic benefits across the nation Coordinated transmission planning can 36 reduce interconnection costs by 35% and accelerate deployment timelines Offshore wind generation can effectively 41 balance land-based renewable generation to support a dependable grid Scaling the domestic offshore wind 46 industry could create nearly 390,000 jobs and spur economic activity across the country Conclusion 50 Additional 2035 Report Resources 51 References 52NAMES AND AFFILIATIONS OF AUTHORS Umed Paliwal 1 * @ , Nikit Abhyankar 1 * @ , Taylor McNair 2 , Jose Dominguez Bennett 1 , David Wooley 1 , Jamie Matos 1 , Ric O’Connell 2 , Amol Phadke 1 @ 1 University of California, Berkeley, Goldman School of Public Policy 2 GridLab * Lead Authors @ Corresponding Authors Marty Schwarz National Renewable Energy Laboratory Matt Shields National Renewable Energy Laboratory Patrick Gillman Department of Energy Amber Hewett National Wildlife Federation Lara Skinner Climate Jobs Institute, Cornell University Emma Rebhorn Climate Jobs National Resource Center Sushma Raghavan Climate Jobs National Resource Center Juan Guevara Climate Jobs National Resource Center Stephanie McClellan Turn Forward Sara Parkinson Turn Forward Catherine Bowes Turn Forward Arne Jacobson Schatz Energy Research Center, Cal Poly Humboldt Eddie Ahn Brightline Defense Sarah Xu Brightline Defense Kathleen Frangione Orsted Justin Sharp Sharply Focused Beth Treseder Equinor Nicole DiPaolo BlueGreen Alliance JB Tengco BlueGreen Alliance Jessica Eckdish BlueGreen Alliance ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following people provided invaluable technical support, input, and assistance in making this report possible: Maggie Caldwell, Harrison Carpenter- Neuhaus, Danielle Crockett, Tina Li, Eliana Miller, Rene Polanco, Monika Sharma, Elisabeth Soto, Courtney St. John, Climate Nexus Casey Baker, Kyra Ngai, Priya Sreedharan, GridLab Greg Alvarez, Todd Fincannon, Silvio Marcacci, Michael O’Boyle, Michelle Solomon, Sarah Spengeman, Energy Innovation Simone Cobb, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley Chani Wiggins, Winn Strategies Annie Dore, BeeSprings Designs Anya Breitenbach, Forge & Foundry Christopher Jylkka, Tom Jones, Daymark Energy Advisors Ann Furbush, Rosie Hayward, Istvàn Heilmann, Dan Hodge, Jon Stenning, Cambridge Econometrics Below are the members of the Technical Review Committee (TRC). The TRC provided input and guidance related to study design and evaluation, but the contents and conclusions of the report, including any errors and omissions, are the sole responsibility of the authors. TRC member affiliations in no way imply that those organizations support or endorse this work in any way. Funding for this report was provided by Oceankind, the Energy Foundation, and Anita & Josh Bekenstein. SUGGESTED CITATION Paliwal, U., Abhyankar, N., McNair, T., Bennett, J.D., Wooley, D., Matos, J., O’Connell, R. and Phadke, A. 2023. 2035 and Beyond: Abundant, Affordable Offshore Wind Can Accelerate Our Clean Electricity Future. Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.ABOUT GRIDLAB GridLab is an innovative non-profit that provides technical grid expertise to enhance policy decision-making and to ensure a rapid transition to a reliable, cost effective, and low carbon future. ABOUT ENERGY INNOVATION Energy Innovation is an energy and climate policy think tank that produces independent analysis to inform policymakers of all political affiliations in the world’s largest emitting regions. Energy Innovation delivers objective, science-based research to policymakers and other decision-makers seeking to understand which policies are most effective to ensure a climate safe future for all. ABOUT UC BERKELEY’S CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PUBLIC POLICY The Center for Environmental Public Policy, housed at UC Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy, takes an integrated approach to solving environmental problems and supports the creation and implementation of public policies based on exacting analytical standards that carefully define problems and match them with the most impactful solutions.INTRODUCTION Global carbon emissions must be