2023年全球海上风电报告（英文版）-全球风能理事会GWEC.pdf

GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023 GWEC.NET Associate Sponsors Supporting Sponsor Leading Sponsor 1GWEC | GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023 Foreword 2 Executive Summary 6 Part 1: Offshore Wind Enablers 13 Part 2: Technology 41 Market Status 2022 52 Markets to Watch 59 Market Outlook 2023-2032 90 Appendix 108 Table of Contents Global Wind Energy Council Rue de Commerce 31 1000 Brussels, Belgium info@gwec.net www.gwec.net Lead Authors Rebecca Williams, Feng Zhao Contributors and editing by Ben Backwell, Joyce Lee, Amisha Patel, Maf Smith, Mark Hutchinson, Anjali Lathigara, Wanliang Liang, Esther Fang, Thoa Nguyen, Ben Hubbard, Marcela Ruas, Ramon Fiestas, Wangari Muchiri, Liming Qiao, Thang Vinh Bui, Eunbyeol Jo, Nadia Weekes Additional contributions SER Colombia – Asociación Energías Renovables, Associação Brasileira de Energia Eólica e Novas Tecnologias (ABEEólica), Japan Wind Power Association, Renewable Energy Institute – Japan, Korea Wind Energy Industry Association, China Wind Energy Association, South African Wind Energy Association – SAWEA, Clean Energy Council (Australia), American Clean Power, Canadian Renewable Energy Association − CanREA Published 28 August 2023 Design lemonbox www.lemonbox.co.uk GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GWEC.NET Foreword 2 Rebecca Williams Head of Global Offshore Wind, Global Wind Energy Council The 2023 Global Offshore Wind Report marks a new frontier in the global growth of offshore wind. Our analysis shows that over 380 GW of offshore wind capacity, across 32 markets, is predicted to be added in the next ten years. There are plans in place for offshore wind to provide large-scale, renewable energy in every continent in the world, save for Antarctica. This is excellent news for the planet and an increasing number of communities that want clean, reliable electricity to power lives, develop local economies and boost industrial growth and jobs. For the 2023 edition, we are launching the report at the inaugural GWEC Asia Pacific Offshore Wind and Green Hydrogen Summit in Australia. This new, annual event recognises the huge offshore wind opportunity for the Asia Pacific (APAC) region. Indeed, our report shows that nearly half of all offshore wind installed worldwide in the next ten years will be in this region, from an ever-greater number of new offshore wind markets. As more countries in APAC pledge to work towards carbon neutrality, there is a growing demand for renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind. Whilst China continues to be the biggest single market in the region, we are forecasting capacity additions in an increasingly diversified set of markets. Our outlook shows more than 180 GW capacity of offshore wind project pipeline identified outside of China. This year alone, we have so far seen important breakthroughs in several markets: Bangladesh announced plans for its first ever offshore wind project; Vietnam published the Power Development Plan 8, that sets an offshore wind target of 6 GW by 2030 and 70–91.5 GW by 2050; South Korea granted over 20.8 GW of offshore wind electricity business licences (EBL) and is developing a ‘dual-track’ system for offshore wind development; and the Philippines is moving towards its first Green Energy Procurement auction for offshore, which could be as early as next year; from humble offshore wind beginnings, Australia now has a pipeline of 50 GW of capacity, with the event host city, Melbourne, in the state of Victoria, recognised as the epicentre of the Australian offshore wind industry. The central challenge governments and industry now face in this region is realising this potential. APAC is poised for growth but the market alone will not deliver in its current state. Achieving the rollout of offshore wind at this scale in the APAC region will require unprecedented collaboration and cooperation between governments and industry. While the stage may be set for APAC growth, in both Europe and the US Welcome to the Global Offshore Wind Report 2023 Achieving the rollout of offshore wind at this scale in the APAC region will require unprecedented collaboration and cooperation between governments and industry. GWEC | GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022 Foreword 3 the industry is dealing with some acute growing pains. Challenges such as inflation, increased capital cost and the supply chain crunch have been brought into sharp relief in markets that have prioritised race-to-the-bottom pricing schemes. Meanwhile, offshore wind projects have been delayed or indefinitely stalled by inadequate and inefficient permitting and licensing rules. These factors have created uncertainty and have forced developers to review the viability of their projects, in some cases even to stop developing. Such ineffective policies centred on a downward price competition and, where coupled with impractical and unattainable local content stipulations, will add to project costs and slow the pace of offshore wind deployment needed for the world to meet net zero. At the same time, GWEC analysis shows that by the mid-2020s there may be supply chain bottlenecks in every region of the world except China. Immediate investment and global cooperation will be needed to address these bottlenecks. Restrictive trade and investment policies – and calls to decouple from China’s supply chain – may risk delaying the global energy transition. The headwinds faced by the sector are symptomatic of policy and financing environments that are no longer fit for purpose as the world works towards a 1.5C pathway where wind generates one-fifth of the world’s electricity by 2030 and two-thirds by 2050. The UAE COP Presidency, IEA and IRENA are now leading countries to align behind the ambitious aim of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, to around 11 TW ahead of COP28. This target would send a serious message that countries are prepared to make sure their energy objectives are aligned with climate goals, providing the basis for policy action that could accelerate deployment of offshore wind power. The setting of this target, and the evidence of the headwinds faced by the sector, shows that the time has come to take a new, simpler approach to policy for offshore wind. Such an approach should prioritise the delivery of large volumes of offshore wind, supported by incentive-based industrial policies to deliver the socio-economic benefits the world now expects from the industry. It is evident that scaling offshore wind will require shared problem-solving to find effective policy solutions across the sector, including crucially how we scale the global supply chain. The key message here is that achieving the necessary growth in offshore wind energy production cannot rely on protectionist policies that isolate domestic markets. Our message is clear: We need partnership, not protectionism. Collaborative efforts between industry and governments will be essential to addressing these challenges. The establishment of the Global Offshore Wind Alliance, a multi-stakeholder and diplomatically led initiative, signifies the industry’s commitment to public- private partnership. By working together, the industry and governments can create an environment that fosters innovation, investment and the development of a robust offshore wind supply chain. This approach is essential to meet the growing global demand for clean energy and make a significant positive impact on both the energy transition and environmental goals. GWEC analysis shows that by the mid-2020s there may be supply chain bottlenecks in every region of the world except China Sponsor 4 The world is changing rapidly: last year was one of the most challenging in the energy sector. While we were recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, different geopolitical movements, including a war in Europe that triggered an energy crisis, further increased the political willingness to accelerate renewables deployment as the right and only way forward. However, it is necessary to act now to create the conditions required for this transition to happen. For several decades the wind industry has demonstrated its ability, flexibility and resilience to create wealth and a sustainable future for society. We should continue working together to overcome the short-term challenges and to deliver on these big ambitions. Thanks to the huge effort of all the actors, in the last 15 years offshore wind has proven it is able to deliver large amounts of green energy at a reasonable and affordable cost, becoming a key piece of decarbonisation plans worldwide. By the end of last year, the world had more than 60 GW of operational offshore wind capacity, with almost 9 GW installed in 2022 alone. This is the second-best annual deployment figure in offshore wind history and represents more than 10% of the total wind capacity installed in 2022. We expect offshore wind installations to continue increasing significantly in the near future. Despite current difficulties, such as supply chain constraints, inflation and high interest rates among others, we will probably see several projects being delivered between 2023 and 2025. To ensure we can continue delivering sustainable growth for the industry post-2025, the sector and policymakers should invest all their efforts today in paving the way for the decisions we need to take in the short term. Offshore wind energy is a capital-intensive solution that requires regulatory stability and long-term predictability in order to unlock the necessary investment. Special attention should be paid to supply chain resilience and preparedness. Major investments in supply chain capabilities and equipment will be required to meet growth targets. This will bring massive positive returns in the economy but will only happen if suitable frameworks are in place to give the right long-term signals for these investments. If no action is taken, the supply chain will face serious disruptions from 2026, as this report outlines. Equal consideration should be given to attracting and developing talent – already a key factor for delivering the overall objectives of the energy transition. Being mindful of price and cost pressure on consumers and the supply chain, designing the right auction processes to award sites becomes paramount for achieving the sector’s goals. We should question whether the Alvaro Martinez Palacio Managing Director, Offshore Wind, Iberdrola Offshore wind energy is a capital-intensive solution that requires regulatory stability and long-term predictability in order to unlock the necessary investment. Delivering on the big ambitions of global offshore wind 5GWEC | GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023 uncapped negative bidding schemes currently running in some countries will threaten offshore wind growth targets. These schemes impose significant additional costs on projects and heighten pressure on the supply chain, leading to higher electricity prices and increasing the risk of delaying project investment decisions. Facilitating onshore and offshore grid development, designing seabed allocation mechanisms that focus on project delivery and streamlining permitting processes are key enablers for deploying our ambitious goals. Recent market volatility also calls for price risk reduction in auctions, for example, through indexation to inflation and commodities, to ensure faster and timely construction of projects. At the same time, discussions should shift from cost to value by designing frameworks that promote solutions involving generators and offtakers. This will boost the advantages that offshore wind can offer by contributing to sustainable transformation of the economy. Over 20 years ago, Iberdrola anticipated that wind energy would be a key driver for future power systems. Since then, it has been committed to the wind sector and the energy transition. Fifteen years ago, the company entered the offshore wind market. We can now say that these were the right decisions. Thanks to its vision, by the end of 2022 Iberdrola had 1.4 GW of offshore wind capacity in operation, more than 3 GW under construction, an additional 14 GW of sites secured and more than 20 GW under development. More recently, Iberdrola decided to expand its onshore and offshore wind activities to the Asia Pacific region and is currently developing offshore projects in Japan, Taiwan and Australia, bringing together its experience in other markets and its existing local footprint. We believe this region can become a key growth area for the offshore wind sector, and the authorities are making great efforts to create suitable frameworks to promote the necessary investments. There is no doubt that offshore wind energy will play a key role in the decarbonisation of all sectors of the economy with its mature, cost- competitive and reliable energy. Collaboration is crucial to achieving the increase in pace of installations described in this report. The industry needs to keep working together with the support of GWEC to engage with governments and communities globally in creating an enabling environment to foster growth for the offshore wind sector. Sponsor 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7GWEC | GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023 Executive Summary Market status Feeding 8.8 GW of new offshore wind into the grid – 58% lower than the bumper year of 2021 – still made 2022 the second highest year in history for offshore wind installations. The 8.8 GW of new installations brings the total global offshore wind power capacity to 64.3 GW, showing year-on-year (YoY) growth of 16% and representing 7% of global cumulative offshore wind installations. China continued to lead global offshore wind development, although its new installations dropped to 5 GW from 21 GW in 2021 – which was a record year driven by the end of the feed-in tariff (FiT). Two other markets reported new offshore wind installations in Asia-Pacific last year: Chinese Taiwan (1,175 MW) and Japan (84 MW). No intertidal (nearshore) wind projects achieved commercial operation in Vietnam in 2022. This was due to the absence of a ceiling price until January 2023 to be used by Vietnam Electricity (EVN) to negotiate PPAs with investors for their renewable projects. Europe connected the remaining 2.5 GW of capacity in 2022, with France and Italy each commissioning their first commercial offshore wind projects. Despite the rate of installations last year being the lowest since 2016, Europe’s total offshore wind capacity reached 30 GW, 46% of which is from the UK. With total installed offshore wind capacity reaching 34 GW in Asia-Pacific in 2022, Europe relinquished its title as the world’s largest offshore wind market. Nevertheless, Europe continues to lead the way in floating wind. Norway commissioned 60 MW of floating wind capacity last year, bringing the region’s total installations to 171 MW, equal to 91% of global installations, followed by Asia-Pacific (16.7 MW, or 9% of global market share). Outside Europe and