【推荐】中国氢能战略-英-33页.pdf

energypolicy.columbia.edu | 1 October 2023 While the US and European medias have dedicated significant bandwidth to the topic of low- carbon hydrogen in the United States and Europe, they have reported far less on unfolding developments around that topic in China. This disparity is especially notable because China stands as the foremost global player in hydrogen production and consumption. 1 The country’s substantial market size and extensive industrial infrastructure not only facilitate fast technological advancements in the hydrogen space, but also offer the potential to achieve economies of scale— two developments that can significantly influence the global hydrogen market landscape. In light of these circumstances, it is essential to understand China’s hydrogen strategy, including how the country plans to start decarbonizing its current hydrogen consumption and expand future use and production. A notable feature of China’s hydrogen strategy is that it is not, in fact, singular, but instead comprised of a national strategy and a multitude of regional strategies. Since the release of China’s Medium and Long-Term Strategy for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021–2035) (referred to as “the National Plan”) in March 2022, 2 there has been significant development in the country’s hydrogen space. However, the National Plan’s targets for renewable hydrogen production may appear conservative given the scale of hydrogen consumption in the country: a range of 100,000 to 200,000 tons per year by 2025 represents only 0.3 to 0.6 percent of the 33 million tons (Mt) of fossil-based hydrogen consumed in China in 2020. 3 (For context, in 2022, electrolytic hydrogen’s production level was still below 100,000 tons globally, and as of early 2023 about 4.5 Mt of renewable hydrogen globally by 2025 has been committed to, planned, and This commentary represents the research and views of the authors. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Center on Global Energy Policy. The piece may be subject to further revision. Contributions to SIPA for the benefit of CGEP are general use gifts, which gives the Center discretion in how it allocates these funds. More information is available at www.energypolicy. columbia.edu/about/partners. Rare cases of sponsored projects are clearly indicated. China’s Hydrogen Strategy: National vs. Regional Plans By Yushan Lou and Anne-Sophie Corbeau 2 | energypolicy.columbia.edu October 2023 announced. 4 Some regions appear more bullish, including the EU with its aspirational renewable hydrogen target of up to 1 Mt by 2024. 5 ) By contrast, provinces, cities, and municipalities across China have introduced their own hydrogen development plans that establish far more ambitious renewable hydrogen goals. Hence, the provincial plans viewed together may offer a more accurate picture of China’s hydrogen industry over the coming decades than the National Plan. This commentary analyzes these somewhat divergent national and local hydrogen strategies comparatively to provide a nuanced understanding of China’s evolving hydrogen landscape. Its key findings are as follows: ● The targets of China’s provinces combined are far more ambitious than its national targets, with Inner Mongolia leading the way. The latter province is aiming to reach 480,000 tons of renewable hydrogen production per year by 2025 (2.5 to 5 times the national target). China may have set a conservative national renewable hydrogen target to test the waters, allowing local governments to charge ahead. ● Inner Mongolia could reach around 60 percent of its 2025 target based on projects that are currently under construction (and excluding those still in the planning stage, which may or may not materialize). This region alone would largely meet the national target for renewable hydrogen. While the provinces’ targets may not be fully met, they provide a more realistic view of what China can accomplish. ● Though climate mitigation is certainly one key underlying driver of China’s hydrogen strategy, industrial and economic motivations seem more prominent in the short term. China has placed less emphasis on carbon intensity than the EU and the US, as evidenced by the Chinese government’s lack of a formal definition of renewable hydrogen. An Overview of China’s Hydrogen Landscape China holds a substantial share of global hydrogen production, contributing roughly one-third of total output at around 33 Mt per year. 6 This production heavily relies on fossil fuels (79 percent)— and about 21 percent of it originates as industrial by-product—resulting in 360 Mt of CO 2 emissions. 7 Meanwhile, the contribution of renewable hydrogen remains marginal, accounting for less than 0.1 percent of production. 8 As shown in Figure 1, China’s industrial sector plays a pivotal role in driving the country’s hydrogen consumption. 9energypolicy.columbia.edu | 3 October 2023 Figure 1: China’s hydrogen production and sectoral consumption (2020) Hydrogen production Hydrogen consumption Source: Adapted from International Energy Agency (IEA), “Opportunities for Hydrogen Production with CCUS in China,” November 2022, https:/ /iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/9c01430d-9e8f-4707-862c- 35453b9e7d89/OpportunitiesforHydrogenProductionwithCCUSinChina.pdf. Rather than evenly distributed across the country, hydrogen production in China is concentrated in the northwest and northeastern regions (see Figure 2). The highest production levels are in the Autonomous Region of Inner Mongolia (hereafter “Inner Mongolia”) and Shandong, each of which accounts for more than 4 Mt per year, followed by Xinjiang, Shaanxi, and Shanxi, at more than 3 Mt per year. By-product (7 Mt/y) Renewable (0.1 Mt/y) Natural gas (5 Mt/y) Coal (21 Mt/y) Heat combustion (5 Mt/y) Refining (8-9 Mt/y) Methanol (7-9 Mt/y) Ammonia (10-11 Mt/y) Other (0.02 Mt/y) 4 | energypolicy.columbia.edu October 2023 Figure 2: Distribution of existing hydrogen demand, industrial clusters, and renewable hydrogen projects in China Note: Project numbers are based on July 2022 data and may not cover all projects. See note 17 for detailed information about the scope of this work. Source: Adapted from Ping An Securities ( 平安证劵), “Hydrogen Series Report (1) Hydrogen Production: By-Product Hydrogen Takes the Lead, Green Hydrogen Is Expected to Open a New Era” ( 氢能系列报告 (一)制氢篇：副产氢占先机，绿氢有望开新局), December 2021, https:/ /dfscdn.dfcfw.com/download/A2_ cms_f_20211223134624381328 Tu et al., “Prospects of Renewable Hydrogen in China and Its Role in Industrial Decarbonization,” EnergiePartnerSchaft, 2022, https:/ /www.energypartnership. cn/fileadmin/user_upload/china/media_elements/publications/2022/Agora/Prospects_of_Renewable_ Hydrogen.pdf; Xiaohan Gong, Rainer Quitzow, and Anatole Boute, “China’s Emerging Hydrogen Economy: Policies, Institutions, Actors,” RIFS Study, January 2023, https:/ /doi.org/10.48481/rifs.2023.001.             Xinjiang Shaanxi Shanxi Gansu Tibet Autonomous Region Sichuan Liaoning Inner Mongolia Hubei Qinghai Yunnan Chongqing Guizhou Guangxi Hainan Hunan Jilin Heilongjiang             Zhejiang Jiangsu Guangdong Henan Ningxia Hebei Beijing Tianjin Shanghai Anhui
   Fujian Jiangxi Shandong Yz  D   - T  -b   energypolicy.columbia.edu | 5 October 2023 The northwest and northeast regions are also known for high coal output, underscoring the strong link between hydrogen production and coal resources. Abundant coal reserves in places like Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shandong (north China), which cater to the nearby petrochemical and chemical sectors, support hydrogen production and consumption, which typically occur within the same facility. 10 The northwest is also positioned to become a hub for renewable hydrogen supply due to its high abundance of renewable energy resources. 11 However, given that east and southeast China are anticipated to emerge as significant demand centers soon, a new challenge in the form of a geographical disjuncture between hydrogen supply and demand will likely present itself. China’s lack of transport infrastructure represents an additional challenge: the country currently possesses only 400 kilometers of hydrogen pipelines. 12 Recent initiatives to develop infrastructure such as short-distance hydrogen pipelines, hydrogen refueling stations, and liquid hydrogen storage facilities are primarily concentrated in four major industrial clusters—the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base (see Figure 2)—so may not be able to connect renewable hydrogen supplies with primary demand centers. China’s National and Regional Hydrogen Development Strategies Compared In September 2021, China announced what it called its “dual carbon goal” of carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. 13 As a first step toward achieving that goal, China’s State Council introduced an Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030, which emphasized the role of hydrogen in sectors such as steel, petrochemicals, and transportation (including heavy-duty freight), as well as technologies such as renewable hydrogen production. 14 This was soon followed by the announcement of China’s National Plan, which lays out the vision for China’s hydrogen industry by 2035. The National Plan strategically positions hydrogen as: (1) an important part of China’s future energy system; (2) an important carrier for achieving a low-carbon energy transition in China; and (3) a key emerging industry and development direction of future industries in China. 15 While most of China’s specific targets in this strategic plan are for 2025, many other countries’ national hydrogen strategies outline quantified targets for 2030 (and beyond), which can create the perception that their strategies are more ambitious. China’s plan, however, includes the long- term vision to fully establish the hydrogen industry value chain by 2035. Nonetheless, among the most important of these 2025 targets is the deployment of 50,000 fuel cell vehicles and the production of 0.1 to 0.2 Mt of renewable hydrogen toward a broader goal of reducing annual CO 2 emissions by 1 million to 2 million tons by 2025. 16 Other highlights from the National Plan include an aim to establish a hydrogen supply system that 6 | energypolicy.columbia.edu October 2023 uses both industrial by-product hydrogen and renewable hydrogen; meanwhile, the use of carbon capture and storage technologies to produce hydrogen from fossil fuels is absent from the strategy. The short-term emphasis on utilizing by-product hydrogen (which is unique to China) is due to the substantial volume of wasted by-product hydrogen (largely fossil-based) extracted from industrial waste gas in sectors such as coking, chlorine, and propane dehydrogenation. Aligned with this plan, numerous local governments (e.g., Anhui, Shanxi, Jilin, Hebei, Shandong, and Hunan) prioritize by- product hydrogen as the primary supply source through 2025. The development of collection and purification technologies for this hydrogen is also given priority across regions. The National Plan marked a significant shift in China’s overall energy strategy by making hydrogen a fundamental component of its emerging energy system, positioning the country well to achieve global leadership in hydrogen technologies such as fuel cell vehicles and electrolyzers. Out of the 34 regions that make up China, 17 18 have independently introduced their own hydrogen industry 14th Five-Year Plan, a strategic blueprint outlining a province’s economic and social development goals over a five-year period, while the others have incorporated hydrogen into their broader industrial strategies (see Table 1). Given their consideration of diverse provincial resources, infrastructure capacities, and strengths, these regional-level strategies hold valuable insights. One critical conclusion that can be drawn from them is that local policy and industry developments are already moving far beyond the conservative targets of the National Plan. The regions’ cumulative targets for renewable hydrogen amount to over 1.1 to 1.2 Mt by 2025, or 5 to 12 times the national target (see Table 1). 18 For instance, Inner Mongolia has an ambitious objective of 480,000 tons of renewable hydrogen by 2025, more than twice the national target.energypolicy.columbia.edu | 7 October 2023 Table 1: China’s regional hydrogen development plans Continued on next page Planning phase Hydrogen value chain and infrastructure Application Ref Production Hydrogen fueling stations Transportation Renewable (tons) By-product/ other (tons) Fuel-cell vehicles* Municipalities Beijing 北京市 2023 37 3,000 [19] 2025 74 10,000 Chongqing 重庆市 2025 30 2,000 [20] Tianjin 天津市 2022 10 1,000 [21] 2025 900 Shanghai 上海市 2025 70 10,000 [22] 2035 Northeast (东北) Heilongjiang Province 黑龙江 2025 5 [23] Jilin Province 吉林 2025 60,000– 80,000 10 500 [24] 2030 300,000– 400,000 70 7,000 2035 1.2–1.5 mill. 400 70,000 Liaoning Province 辽宁 2025 30 3,000 [25] 2035 500 150,000 North (华北) Hebei Province 河北 2025 100,000 200,000 100 10,000 [26] Shanxi Province 山西 2025 10,000 [27] 2030 50,000 East (华东) Jiangsu Province 江苏 2025 50 10,000 [28] 8 | energypolicy.columbia.edu October 2023 Planning phase Hydrogen value chain and infrastructure Application Ref Production Hydrogen fueling stations Transportation Renewable (tons) By-product/ other (tons) Fuel-cell vehicles* East (华东) (cont’d) Zhejiang Province 浙江 2025 50 5,000 [29] Anhui Province 安徽 2025 30 5,000 [30] 2030 120 20,000 2035 Fujian Province福 福建 2025 40 4,000 [31] Jiangxi Province 江西 2025 1,000 10 500 [32] Shandong Province 山东 2022 30 3,000 [33] 2025 100 10,000 2030 200 50,000 South Central (中南) Henan Province 河南 2025 5,000 [34] Hubei Province 湖北 2025 10 1,250 [35] Hunan Province 湖南 2025 10 500 [36] Guangdong Province 广东 2025 100,000 300 10,000 [37] Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region 广西 2025 2000 10 500 [38] Hainan Province 海南 - [39] Southwest (西南) Sichuan Province 四川 2025 60 6,000 [40] Continued on next pageenergypolicy.columbia.edu | 9 October 2023 Planning phase Hydrogen value chain and infrastructure Application Ref Production Hydrogen fueling stations Transportation Renewable (tons) By-product/ other (tons) Fuel-cell vehicles* Southwest (西南) (cont’d) Guizhou Province 贵州 2025 10,000 15 1,000 [41] Yunnan Province 云南 [42] Tibet Autonom- ous Region 西藏 [43] Northwest (西北) Shaanxi Province 陕西 2024 30,000 50 5,000 [44] 2025 100 10,000 Gansu Province 甘肃 2025 200,000 [45] Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region 宁夏 2025 80,000 10 500 [46] 2030 300,000 Qinghai Province 青海 2025 40,000 3 to 4 100 [47] Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region 新疆 2025 10,000 1,500 [48] Inner Mongo