2022全球海上风电报告（英）-GWEC.pdf

GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL SOUTH EAST ASIA GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL SOUTH EAST ASIA TASK FORCE LATIN AMERICA WORK FORCE OFFSHORE WIND TASK FORCE GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL OFFSHORE GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL LATAM GWEC | GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022 GWEC.NET Associate Sponsors Supporting Sponsor Leading Sponsor 1GWEC | GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022 Foreword 2 Executive Summary 6 Part One: Supply Chain 12 Part Two: Policy 21 Part Three: Sustainability of the Industry 28 Part Four: Technology 39 Market Status 2021 55 Markets to Watch 57 Market Outlook 2022-2031 83 Appendix 98 Global Leaders 102 Sponsors and Contacts 104 Table of Contents Global Wind Energy Council Rue de Commerce 31 1000 Brussels, Belgium info@gwec.net www.gwec.net Lead Authors Rebecca Williams, Feng Zhao, Joyce Lee Contributors and editing by Ben Backwell, Emerson Clarke, Wanliang Liang, Anjali Lathigara, Esther Fang, Reshmi Ladwa, Marcela Ruas, Liming Qiao, Mark Hutchinson, Thang Vinh Bui, Maf Smith, Nadia Weekes, Alastair Dutton, Martha Selwyn Published 29 June 2022 Design lemonbox www.lemonbox.co.uk GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL FOREWORD 2 3GWEC | GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022 Foreword Welcome to the Global Offshore Wind Report 2022 - “Offshore Wind - the Next Horizon”. It feels like the world has changed substantially since our 2021 edition. It also seems evident that we are working towards a new horizon for offshore wind technology, where wind will play an increasingly critical role in energy systems across the world. Countries globally are now grappling with the unprecedented twin challenge of ensuring secure energy supplies and meeting climate targets to stem the worst effects of global heating. 2022 so far, has seen consumers globally bear the brunt of spiraling fuel and power prices as well as associated inflation, creating a cost of living crisis being felt in every corner of the world. It has also seen record emissions and temperature increases, and ever graver warnings from international climate bodies, as encapsulated in the latest IPCCC report. As we set out in the Global Wind Report 2022 earlier this year, GWEC believes that the only permanent way to solve the challenges of energy security, climate change and affordability is an accelerated transition away from volatile fossil fuels towards renewables. Offshore wind represents a key opportunity for countries to push the energy transition forwards at scale, creating significant national and local jobs and economic growth and jobs, and lowering energy prices, while supporting energy security. I am, therefore, pleased to share with you that 21.1GW of offshore wind was connected to the grid last year, making 2021 the best ever year for the offshore wind industry. 2022 is likewise set to be a record-breaking year for offshore wind growth globally. Policymakers are now fully waking up to the opportunities that offshore wind can provide. The last few months following COP26 have seen a rapid expansion of ambition for offshore wind around the world. We have seen many governments either setting offshore wind targets for the first time or increasing targets in response to the energy crisis. For example, the European Commission recently released the REPowerEU plan, aiming to achieve independence for Europe from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030. The Esbjerg Declaration from the North Sea nations of Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany set out a new target of 150 GW of offshore wind by 2050. We have also seen the UK Government raise its offshore wind target by another 10 GW, to 50GW by 2030; and Vietnam is targeting a huge offshore wind increase in its PDP8 (Power Development Plan 8). In the United States, the total announced offshore wind procurement targets at the state level increased by 28.6% to nearly 50 GW within a year. In Australia, the Victoria State Government has set a target of 9 GW of offshore wind by 2030. Crucially governments are also starting to put in place the right policy frameworks to achieve their goals. We have also seen the publication of the Decree 10,946/2022 in Brazil which lays the regulatory ground for offshore wind, and in Columbia, the government is moving forwards towards a seabed leasing framework. Welcome to the Global Offshore Wind Report 2022 Rebecca Williams Global Head of Offshore Wind, Global Wind Energy Council GWEC.NET Collectively this increase in ambition is taking headline targets for offshore wind close to the 380 GW by 2030 which GWEC and IRENA proposed in their UN Energy Compact in 2021. However, policymakers and industry will now need to make a gargantuan effort to make sure these targets are met, as this will require around 70 GW of installations per year, compared to the current level of around 20 GW. So far, only China has shown itself capable of constructing at close to the required levels to meet its targets. Many countries, such as South Korea, Vietnam, India, and Brazil, have impressive ambitions but are relatively new to offshore wind. These newer markets will, therefore, need to be supported by industry bodies such as GWEC, experienced national governments and other institutions to quickly kick start their sectors and get steel in the water in the right time frames to meet their targets. Redesigning regulatory frameworks to more rapidly lease seabed and permit sites will be of crucial importance if offshore wind is to fulfill its role in replacing fossil fuels. This year’s Global Offshore Wind Report sets out details of how this can be achieved. New policy solutions will also have to be adopted to ensure that the global supply chain can meet ever increasing demand against a backdrop of rising commodity prices and shrinking margins. Continued offshore wind growth cannot be achieved without a buoyant supply chain able to supply a growing pipeline of projects across the world. As the size of the industry increases, a sustainable approach to expansion will be key. This year’s report explores the different challenges that are being faced by the industry as it scales up and discusses how offshore wind can be deployed in harmony with nature, communities and shared users of the marine environment. Offshore wind is ready to play its part in mitigating climate change and tackling the energy crisis. Now is the time to redouble our efforts, working collaboratively with policymakers, communities and wider stakeholders, to accelerate the transition towards a renewable future. Foreword 4 5GWEC | GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022 A lot has changed in the energy sector over the past year. The rebound in the world economy from COVID-19 has led to increased demand for energy and other commodities, with sharply rising prices as a consequence. Global supply chains have been disrupted, challenging the ability of industries to deliver on time and within budget. The energy and supply chain crisis has been further exacerbated by Russia’s unwarranted invasion of Ukraine. Facing these grave challenges, it has become clear that the transition away from a fossil- dependent energy system must be accelerated. Today, the offshore wind industry finds itself at a new inflection point. After a decade of industrialisation and cost reductions, offshore wind has become a well-established and mature industry. Despite recent cost inflation, offshore wind is firmly cost-competitive with fossil-powered alternatives, and even more so in light of the current high price environment for fossil fuels. There is no longer any doubt that large-scale offshore wind will be an important part of the future decarbonised electricity system. Governments in Europe, the Asia- Pacific, the US and beyond are looking to offshore wind as a means to diversify and decarbonise their energy supply. 2021 was a remarkable year for new offshore wind capacity with a record 21 GW being installed globally, more than triple the capacity deployed in 2020. Europe had another strong year, installing around 3 GW. The big change happened in mainland China, where nearly 17 GW was installed, bringing its total installed capacity almost up to par with Europe. Meanwhile, the industry is seeing new build-out targets announced that would be almost unfathomable just a few years ago. These targets hold promise that the record installations seen in 2021 will not be a one-off event. The offshore wind industry, however, cannot rest on its laurels and must continue to evolve and innovate. The carbon footprint of the industry needs to be minimised through the decarbonisation of supply chains, including the steel that goes into producing wind turbines and towers. Offshore wind needs to be built in balance with nature, carefully managing its impact on the environment and biodiversity. While climate change is the single largest threat to global biodiversity, including in the ocean, the industry also has a responsibility to avoid, mitigate and address potential environmental impacts as offshore wind expands off our coasts. There are exciting opportunities for innovation by integrating offshore wind at scale with energy islands, interconnector links and through Power-to-X. Delivering on the ambitions for offshore wind capacity deployment will require a massive expansion of the supply chain. In Europe, supply chain capacity will need to more than triple towards 2030, and other regions will have to build up supply chains almost from scratch. A main challenge will be to attract the necessary investments while ensuring a healthy and economically sound supply chain industry. At the same time, the industry needs to continue to demonstrate the sustainability of offshore wind, including to local communities and biodiversity. Ørsted appreciates the good working relationships in the sector, not least as expressed by GWEC. We look forward to continuing to work with these important agendas in 2022 and beyond, including at COP27 in Egypt. Ulrik Stridbæk Vice President, Group Regulatory Affairs, Ørsted Foreword EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 7GWEC | GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022 Executive Summary Market status 2021 saw 21.1 GW offshore wind reach grid connection worldwide, three times more than in 2020, setting a new record in the offshore wind industry. The 21.1 GW of new installations brings global cumulative offshore wind power capacity to 56 GW, showing year-over-year (YoY) growth of 58% and representing 7% of total global cumulative wind installations. Of the 21.1 GW in new offshore installations, 80% was contributed by China. This makes 2021 the fourth year that China has led the world in new offshore wind installations. This astounding growth in China was chiefly driven by the FiT cut-off for offshore wind starting from 1 January 2022. A similar situation also occurred in Vietnam, which commissioned 779 MW of intertidal (nearshore) projects last year, making it the third-largest market in new installations in 2021. Taiwan only commissioned the 109 MW Changhua demonstration project in 2021, due to COVID-19-related disruptions. In addition to the new capacity from Asia, Europe is the only region which reported new offshore wind installations last year. The UK had a record year in 2021 with more than 2.3 GW reaching grid connection; however, it lost its title as the world’s largest offshore wind market in total installations to China. Coming in second for new installations in Europe is Denmark with 605MW commissioned last year, followed by Netherlands (392 MW) and Norway (3.6MW). In total installations, Europe remains the largest offshore wind regional market as of the end of 2021. The region was responsible for 50.4% of total cumulative global offshore wind installations, followed by Asia with 49.5% market share. Outside Europe and Asia, North America has 42 MW offshore wind in operation as of the end of last year, contributing only 0.1% of total offshore wind installations. Last year also saw 57 MW of new floating wind installed worldwide, of which 48 MW was in the UK, 5.5 MW in China and 3.6 MW in Norway. As of 2021, a total of 121.4 MW of floating wind is installed globally, of which 110.9 MW (91.4%) is in Europe and the remaining 10.5 MW (8.6%) in Asia. Market Outlook Political commitment to net zero gathered global momentum at COP26 in Glasgow. Offshore wind power is poised to play a vital role on achieving carbon neutrality. Coupled with renewed policy urgency for achieving energy independence from Russian oil and gas, and volatility in fossil fuel markets in general, the global offshore wind market outlook in the medium and long-term looks extremely promising. With an expected compound average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% until 2026 and 13.9% up to the beginning of next decade, new annual installations are expected to sail past the milestones of 30 GW in 2027 and 50 GW in 2030. GWEC Market Intelligence expects that over 315 GW of new offshore wind capacity will be added over the next decade (2022-2031), bringing total global offshore wind capacity to 370 GW by the end of 2031. Of this new volume, 29% will be connected Feng Zhao Head of Strategy and Market Intelligence, Global Wind Energy Council The Data: 2021 - The best year for the offshore wind industry GWEC.NET in the first half of the decade (2022- 2026). This still falls short of the 380 GW offshore wind installation target by 2030 set by GWEC and IRENA in its UN Energy Compact in 2021. As the volume of annual offshore wind installations is expected to more than double from 21.1 GW in 2021 to 54.9 GW in 2031, offshore’s share of new global wind installations is set to grow from 23% in 2021 to at least 30% by 2031. Considering the increased floating wind target in the UK and the accelerated floating project development activities in Europe, Asia and North America, which bring the current global floating project pipeline to 120 GW, GWEC Market Intelligence has upgraded its global floating wind forecast and predicts that 18.9 GW is likely to be built globally by 2030, of which 11 GW will be in Europe, 5.5 GW in Asia and the rest in North America. It is important to emphasise that our near-term outlook is primarily based on the existing global offshore project pipeline, but our medium-term outlook (2027-2031) reflects current declared national and regional targets. Given the energy system reform packages still underway in Europe and other regions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fossil fuel price volatility, it is highly likely that these targets will increase further and GWEC Market Intelligence’s 10-year forecast could be significantly revised upward this year. On the other hand, there is currently an implementation gap between declared targets and the rate of annual installations. Enabling an acceleration in offshore wind energy deployment requires measures to accelerate permitting procedures for wind projects