全球电力市场报告

July 2021 Electricity Market Report The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t India POSOCO, https://posoco.in/ and ENTSO-E, https://transparency.entsoe.eu/. -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% J an Feb Ma r Ap r Ma y J un J ul Au g Se p Oc t No v De c J an Feb Ma r Ap r Ma y 2020 2021 R el at i v e c hang e t o t he s am e per i od i n 2019 China India Europe Electricity Market Report – July 2021 PAGE | 10 Introduction and recent developments I E A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Hot and cold – weather-related electricity demand is set to bounce back in 2021 Global electricity demand decreased by around 1% in 2020, pushed down not only by the Covid-19 pandemic, but also by milder temperatures that reduced consumption. In 2021, we expect temperature driven consumption to pick up again, particularly due to an increase in cooling demand in the Northern Hemisphere, although the trends are highly region-specific. In 2020, if temperatures had been similar to those in 2019, global demand would have fallen by around 0.3% instead of 1%. Milder temperatures during the cold season reduced the global need for space heating (heating degree days were down by 4%) and a slightly cooler hot season decreased the need for space cooling (cooling degree days were down by 0.6%). In France, milder temperatures caused demand to drop by 5% instead of 3% and in the United States, annual demand fell by 3% instead of 2%. In the first five months of 2021, colder temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere pushed up global heating degree days by 13% compared with the same period in 2020, with North America and Europe experiencing particularly severe cold waves in February. In June and July 2021, extremely hot temperatures in several regions could result in a global increase in electricity demand for cooling. In British Columbia, Canada, a new heat record of 50 degrees Celsius was reached. Temperatures in several cities in the northwest of the United States reached new all-time highs. In the Middle East, several countries registered more than 50 degrees Celsius. In India’s northern states, a heatwave caused temperatures to reach a nine-year high in the country’s capital New Delhi, and also parts of Europe had a hot start to the summer. Looking more closely at regional trends, in several European countries, electricity demand for cooling fell in 2020 as a result of a cooler summer: by 14% in Italy, for example, and 6% in France. In early 2021, electricity demand for heating rose due to colder temperatures. The United Kingdom experienced the lowest average minimum temperatures for April since 1922 in 2021, with similar cold temperatures in Germany (coldest April in 40 years), France and Austria (both coldest in 20 years). For the first half of 2021, we estimate a year-on-year increase in heating demand of 33% in France and 21% in Norway and Sweden. We also expect that higher early-summer temperatures in Northern Europe will drive up electricity demand for cooling in 2021. In June, some regions saw their hottest days on record, including Finland (31.7°C), Moscow (34.8°C), Belarus (35.7°C) and Estonia (34.6°C). The impact of weather on electricity demand is mixed in North America: following a mild winter in 2020 that drove heating related demand in the United States down by 14%, electricity demand for heating rebounded by 13% in the first half of 2021, due to a record- breaking cold snap. Following record-breaking high temperatures Electricity Market Report – July 2021 PAGE | 11 Introduction and recent developments I E A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . which affected multiple regions in the northwest of the United States and in Canada, we estimate that overall electricity demand for cooling for the summer of 2021 will increase relative to 2020. In June 27 of 2021, some areas in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia saw air temperatures that were more than 15°C higher than the 2014-2020 average for the same day. The weather in some regions of Central and South America has been slightly cooler in 2020-2021 compared with 2019. In Brazil, we estimate a year-on-year decrease in electricity demand for cooling of 10% in 2020 and of 1% in the period January to May 2021. The impact of weather in the Asia Pacific region is also mixed. China, the world’s biggest consumer of electricity for heating, experienced lower temperatures during the winter in 2020 that pushed up electricity demand for heating by 2%. The first half of winter in 2020-2021 hit record-breaking low temperatures. However, the first five months of 2021 have been milder on average, slightly reducing electricity demand for heating. In India, a heat wave in the early summer months increased the need for cooling. An early-summer heatwave in the Middle East is expected to bring up electricity demand for cooling. During June 2021, temperatures climbed above 50°C in multiple regions, including the Islamic Republic of Iran (hereafter “Iran”), Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. Average daily dry temperatures in selected areas of the United States and Canada IEA. All rights reserved. Note: the temperatures were measured in Portland International Airport (Oregon, USA) and Vancouver International Airport (British Columbia, CA). Source: NOAA (2021), Global Surface Summary of the Day. 0 10 20 30 40 1 J une 8 J une 15 J une 22 J une 29 J une 6 J ul y 13 J ul y 20 J ul y 27 J ul yD r y t em per at ur e ( null C) Oregon, United States Range 2015-19 2020 2021 0 10 20 30 1 J une 8 J une 15 J une 22 J une 29 J une 6 J ul y 13 J ul y 20 J ul y 27 J ul yD r y t em per at ur e ( null C) British Columbia, Canada Range 2015-19 2020 2021 Electricity Market Report – July 2021 PAGE | 12 Introduction and recent developments I E A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Milder weather was an important contributor to the electricity demand decline in 2020 Year-on-year change in electricity demand in 2020 for selected countries IEA. All rights reserved. Note: Weather-corrected power demand represents the change in demand if weather in 2020 had been the same as in 2019. For calculating the impact of weather on demand we take into account the change in heating and cooling degree days, the effect of yearly improvements in the energy efficiency of heating and cooling technologies, and the changing stock of heating and cooling appliances. Sources: IEA analysis with data from IEA and CMCC (2020), Weather for Energy Tracker; IEA (2020), Energy Efficiency Indicators; IEA (2020), Heating; IEA (2020), Cooling; IEA (2020), The Future of Cooling. -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Y ear - on - y ear c hang e i n dem and Power demand Power demand (weather corrected) Electricity Market Report – July 2021 PAGE | 13 Introduction and recent developments I E A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Cooler temperatures in early 2021 compared to early 2020 pushed up electricity demand in France and the United States Monthly heating degree days (HDDs) and cooling degree days (CDDs) for selected countries IEA. All rights reserved. Note: Base temperatures (16°C for HDDs and 18°C for CDDs) are constant for all regions to facilitate comparison; however, comfort temperatures can vary by region. Source: IEA analysis based on data from IEA and CMCC (2020), Weather for Energy Tracker. 0 5 10 15 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec A v er ag e dai l y deg r ee day s France 0 5 10 15 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec A v er ag e dai l y deg r ee day s United States 0 5 10 15 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec A v er ag e dai l y deg r ee day s China 0 5 10 15 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec A v er ag e dai l y deg r ee day s India Range 2010-2020 CDDs 2019 CDDs 2020 CDDs 2021 HDDs 2019 HDDs 2020 HDDs 2021 Electricity Market Report – July 2021 PAGE | 14 Introduction and recent developments I E A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Commercial and industrial demand booming in China, bumpy recovery in the US and Europe While measures to contain the pandemic supported higher residential electricity demand, particularly in developed economies, both the commercial and industrial sectors experienced a strong decline in electricity consumption in many countries. While China reached a low in the first quarter of 2020, many countries followed in the second. In the United States and Europe, demand in both sectors gradually recovered in the second half of 2020 as restrictions were lifted. In the first quarter of 2021, when increasing Covid-19 cases were met by new restrictions, industrial and commercial demand fell again in Spain and growth halted in the United States. In China, demand continued to grow rapidly. After strict lockdown measures in the first quarter of 2020 and a subsequent drop in demand, China reached pre-pandemic demand levels in the second quarter of 2020, reflecting a rapid economic recovery. In the second half of 2020, electricity demand significantly exceeded 2019 levels. This trend continued in the first quarter of 2021, with industrial demand exceeding the first quarter of 2019 by more than 15%. Commercial electricity demand in the first quarter of 2021 exceeded 2019 demand for the same period by 16.5%. In the United States, the recovery of electricity demand in the industrial as well as the commercial and services sector has slowed in recent quarters. Commercial sector demand remained around 5% below the same quarters in 2019 from the third quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021. After recovering in the second half of 2020, industrial demand stagnated in the first quarter of 2021 at 5% below the 2019 level. Despite an overall positive trend, the US Energy Information Administration projections from July 2021 show that demand in both sectors will remain below 2019 levels until 2022. In Europe, countries pursued individual strategies against the Covid-19 pandemic, affecting the commercial and industrial sectors to different extents. Electricity demand in Spain and the United Kingdom in both sectors reached its lowest point in the second quarter of 2020 and recovered afterwards – only to fall again during the winter. In the United Kingdom, demand from the commercial sector fell in the second quarter of 2020 to -25% relative to the same period in 2019 and recovered to -10% of the 2019 value in the next quarter. With new lockdown measures coming into force towards the end of 2020 and early 2021, demand dropped to -12% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and -17% in the first quarter of 2021. Demand from UK industry in the fourth quarter of 2020 recovered to 1% below the same period in 2019 before dropping to 9% below 2019 in the first quarter of 2021. In Spain, industrial demand recovered to pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2020 before dropping again to -3% in the first quarter of 2021, also due to new restrictions. Commercial demand over the same period fell from -7% to -10%. Electricity Market Report – July 2021 PAGE | 15 Introduction and recent developments I E A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Commercial and industrial demand: fragile recovery and new heights Electricity demand trends by sector IEA. All rights reserved. Sources: IEA analysis based on data from EIA (2021), Electric Power Monthly: Sales of Electricity to Ultimate Customers; China Energy Portal (2020, 2021), Electricity and other energy statistics; UK Department for Business, Energy Red Eléctrica de España (2021), Indice de Red Electrica: Industria y Servicios; Red Eléctrica de España (2021), Daily Balance Report. -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 United States China United Kingdom Spain D em and l ev el r el at i v e t o t he s am e q uar t er i n 2019 Commercial and services Industry Electricity Market Report – July 2021 PAGE | 16 Introduction and recent developments I E A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . In 2021, coal generation returns to pre-crisis levels in the European Union In the European Union, the share of coal in the electricity mix returned to average pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2021, following an increase that started in the second half of 2020. This growth was facilitated by lower nuclear generation, which fell by 1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, and lower wind power output, which fell by 14%. Additionally, gas prices increased significantly in Europe in the fourth quarter of 2020, recovering to rise well above 2019 levels. Despite strong growth in EU Emissions Trading System prices from December 2021 onwards, this gas price rise reduced coal-to-gas fuel switching, especially in mid-2020. The return of coal is likely to be short-lived, as several European countries accelerated their coal phase-out plans. Austria and Sweden shut down their last single-fired coal power plants in 2020. Portugal brought forward its coal phase-out plan to close its biggest coal power plant (Sines Power Station, 1.3 GW) in January 2021. Gas-fired electricity generation increased significantly in the first five months of 2021 compared with the same period in 2020, rising by 20% while coal rose 14%. While this leaves coal still 15% below pre-pandemic levels, gas-fired generation shows a 4% increase when comparing January to May 2021 with the same period in 2019. In the second quarter of 2021, fossil fuel-based generation decreased as renewables picked up and electricity demand fell with increasing temperatures. Coal and natural gas shares in the European Union IEA. All rights reserved. Note: The lockdown periods are indicative and represent periods when confinement measures were strictest. Sources: IEA analysis based on ENTSO-E (2020) for 25 EU countries (Luxembourg and United Kingdom excluded), Transparency Platform. Bundesnetzagentur (2020), SMARD.de for Germany. See also IEA (2020), Covid-19 impact on electricity. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l S ep No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l S ep No v Ja n Ma r Ma y 2019 2020 2021 P er c ent ag e out of t ot al e le c t r ic it y m ix Coal Gas 1st lockdown 2nd lockdown Electricity Market Report – July 2021 PAGE | 17 Introduction and recent developments I E A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . After record lows, coal’s share of Chinese generation picks up again From late 2020 through to early 2021, coal’s share in the Chinese generation mix bounced back from record lows ear