能源转型趋势2019+中国、欧洲、美国

Energy Transition Trends 2019 China, Europe, USA Implementing Unit Technical Support Financial Support ERR 能研微讯创办已经将近 1 年 ，关注人 数近 7000 人 ，目前在 微信订阅号 、 ofweek 和商业新知 3 个平台同时运营 。 ERR 能研微讯团队目前达到 30 人 ，团队 人员覆盖煤炭 、油气 、可再生能源 、 新能源汽车等领域 。  每日 订阅号 分享 精选出的 能源 资讯或 能源研究报告。  每月末或次月初更新上一个能源报告 索引，提供二次下载机会。  不 定期发布能源报告精选， 电子书等。 关注方式：扫描左侧二维码。  可通过 ERR 能研君垂询订阅号 过期报 告 索取方式 。  帮助加入 能源研究 群学习、交流 。  需要能源 情报收集、 研究报告翻译 以及 咨询研究服务，可 向 ERR 能 研君垂询。  如何添加能研君 微信 ：扫描左侧二维 码。  如何加入能源研究社群：添加能研君微 信 后， 在职人员 请提供工作名片 ； 在校 生 请提供姓名 +学校 。 International Trends in Energy Transition 02 1. China 04 Building a Clean, Low Carbon, Safe and Efficient Energy System 04 Outlook: Three Revolutions are the Future Development Trends in China Energy Sector 08 Conclusion 08 2. European Union (EU) 09 Main Drivers and Long-term Energy Targets for a European Energy Transition 09 The “Clean Energy for all Europeans” Package 10 Transfer to China 13 3. Germany 14 Status 2018: RE Power Production Caught up with Power Production from Hard Coal and Lignite 14 Germany’s Coal Phase-out According to Recommendations from the Commission for Growth, Structural Change and Employment 15 Transfer to China 16 4. Denmark 18 Higher Share of RE in Energy and Power Consumption 18 Transition in Close Cooperation between Public and Private Sector 18 Holistic Long-term Energy Planning 19 Setting and Meeting Ambitious Energy Targets 19 New Ambitious Energy Agreement Unanimously Approved 19 Flexibility Key for Renewable Energy Integration 21 Transfer to China: Large-scale RE Integration and Market Transformation 21 5. United States of America (USA) 22 Power System Transition: Where the U.S. Stands 22 Current Focus Points and Potential 23 Transfer to China 25 References 26 2 Energy Transition Trends 2019 International Trends in Energy Transition Global warming affects all countries and can only be tackled in a joint international effort. The Paris agreement was a crucial milestone in the fight against climate change. For the first time, virtually all countries worldwide acknowledged the threat of global warming and commonly agreed on “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degree above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degree above pre-industrial levels.” To date, over 180 countries have submitted their so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations and published national greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets. a The data shown in the graphic are based on either Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted to the United Nations (UN) or, in the case of Denmark and Germany, additional national targets. Unless stated otherwise, the base year for all targets is 1990. In order to allow for comparability, for the U.S., official NDC targets with base year 2005 have been converted to a base year 1990 using data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The Danish GHG reduction target for 2030 is based upon the preliminary Danish non- ETS reduction target of 39% compared to the 2005 level and is not an official Danish target. Key Elements for a Successful Energy Transition Worldwide: • International exchange of experiences and mutual learning. • Clear long-term vision, elaborated and regularly revised mid-term targets and flexible mind-sets for short-term adjustments. • An integrated approach that allows for a cross-sectoral optimization of the energy Denmark • minus 48% by 2030 • minus 80-95% by 2050 Germany • minus 55% by 2030 • minus 80-95% by 2050 EU28 • minus 40% by 2030 • minus 80-95% by 2050 China • peaking of CO 2 emissions around 2030 • lower CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from the 2005 level USA • minus 4.6% by 2030 • minus 14.9-17.3% by 2050 Figure 1: Overview of Key cCountries’ GHG Reduction Targets a In the past years, many countries have begun to transition their energy systems towards a more sustainable energy supply based on renewable energies (RE). The transition of the Chinese energy system takes place in the context of similar developments around the world. The paths all these countries have undertaken so far vary and depend on a number of variables, such as their different starting points, geographical locations, or political and social setting. This report provides a short summary of the current status of the energy transition in China, followed by case studies to illustrate this variety: 3 Energy Transition Trends 2019 • The European Union (EU) as the world’s biggest market is a leading global player and a strong advocate for the fight against climate change. With the “Clean Energy for all Europeans” package, significant legislation for the European energy transition has currently been passed. • Germany, as Europe’s biggest economy and most populous country, is a particularly good example of a highly industrialised nation that aims at decarbonising its economy. The results of the so-called coal commission setting the way for a coal phase-out are being observed worldwide. • Denmark is widely considered a pioneer when it comes to RE, particularly wind energy, and the transition of its electricity and heating system. Recently, Denmark’s political parties reached an ambitious new energy agreement. • The United States, being a vast territorial state with a complex political system, is another example for the wide variety of the variables mentioned above. These countries all have in common the experience of acting in a highly dynamic and internationally intertwined context while transforming their energy systems from a rather centralised approach with continuous energy generation based on fossil fuels to a more decentralised system with fluctuating energy generation from thousands of energy production facilities (wind, solar, and biomass). This requires that politics and regulation are governed by a clear long-term vision, with elaborated and regularly revised mid-term targets and continuous concrete adjustment steps on a short-term basis. 4 Energy Transition Trends 2019 1. China Building a Clean, Low Carbon, Safe and Efficient Energy System China is in the beginning of an energy transition with the aim of building an energy system for the future. At the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, President Xi Jinping confirmed that China will promote a revolution in energy production and consumption. The country’s plans emphasize shifting economic development from high growth to high-quality growth, a paradigm shift that also applies to the energy sector. With the important milestones for 2020, 2035 and 2050, China plans to develop a “clean, low carbon, safe and efficient energy system”. 1 This chapter summaries the energy transition achievements of China in 2018 and future trends towards 2030. After a brief review of 2018 energy consumption, carbon emissions and power mix changes, we review recent changes and newly announced policies, especially concerning renewable energy and the upcoming phase-out of subsidies. China has begun to introduce a renewable energy obligation, renewable tendering policies, and subsidy-free wind and solar pilots. Chinese policy-makers have faced delays in building out the national Emissions Trading System (ETS) and regional spot power markets. The chapter concludes by summarizing challenges facing China’s energy transition overall. China is Still under Pressure of Carbon Reduction China’s carbon dioxide emissions intensity (CO2 emission per unit of GDP) fell by 4.0% and energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP) decreased by 3.1% in 2018. Although both intensities decreased, electricity generated from thermal power plants grew 6.7% and secondary industry’s energy consumption grew 7.6%, implying that carbon- and energy-intensity improvements are primarily the result of economic output outpacing growth in carbon emissions and energy use. Growing secondary industry energy consumption could pressure China’s policies on coal caps and carbon reductions. Energy Consumption Continues to Transform China has seen progress in its efforts to transition away from coal, which includes scaling up other energy sources as well as restricting coal use in key regions. In 2018, China had total primary energy consumption of roughly 135.98 PJ, representing annual growth of 3.3%. Although raw coal production increased by 4.5%, its share in total primary energy consumption declined below 60% for the first time. Meanwhile, 2018 consumption of crude oil rose 6.5% and natural gas consumption grew 17.7%. China is increasingly reliant on imports of oil and gas: imports accounted for 70.9% of oil consumption and 45.3% of gas consumption in 2018. Electricity Consumption Continued to Increase China’s total electricity consumption in 2018 reached 6846 TWh, an 8.5% annual increase, the highest annual growth since 2012. Secondary industry contributed five percentage points of this growth, led by high technology and equipment manufacturing industries, whose electricity consumption grew 9.5%. Tertiary industry consumption also increased sharply, led by telecom, software, and information technology. As the trends of urbanization, electrification of heating, and rising living standards continue, residential electricity consumption as also continued to show strong growth. 2 5 Energy Transition Trends 2019 Renewable Energy Continues to Grow, Though Coal Power Rebounded In 2018 China added 120 GW of new power capacity, reaching 1,900 GW total capacity. Non-fossil energy resources took up 73% of this newly added capacity. In 2018, the power sector in China generated 6,990 TWh, 30.9% of which was from non-fossil energy sources, of which 26.7% was renewables and the remainder from nuclear. 3 China added 20.59 GW of new wind capacity, of which 47% was in East Central and South China, diversifying wind power development across more of the country. 4 China added 44 GW of new solar PV, 17% below the amount added in 2017 but above market expectations. The proportion of incremental power capacity of distributed solar PV accounts for 47% which shows parallel development of centralized and distributed solar PV markets. Figure 2: 2018 Incremental Installed Capacity (Left); 2018 Incremental Power Generation (Right) P ower Generation (TWh ) Thermal Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Biomass 7.2% 18.6% 3.2% 20.2% 50.8% 14.0% 324 46 38 61 60 11 400 300 200 100 0 Installed Capacity ( GW) Thermal Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Biomass 2.8% 24.2% 2.5% 12.4% 33.9% 20.7% 31 9 8 20 44 50 40 30 20 10 0 3 Figure 2 Notice: Thermal power = thermal in CEC datasheet – biomass in NEA datasheet. Source: Biomass data - China National Energy Administration, January 2019 5 ; the rest date - China Electricity Council, December 2018 6 Figure 3 Source: China National Energy Administration, from March 2014 to February 2019 8 Renewable Energy Curtailment Decreasing China has improved uptake of renewable energy in the past two years. In 2018, China experienced wind power curtailment of 27.7 TWh, a rate of 7%, a 5-percentage-point improvement versus 2017. In 2018, China saw solar power curtailment of 5.49 TWh, or 3%, 2.8 percentage points lower than in 2017. Officials cited various explanation for high curtailment in certain regions, including high proportion of renewable energy concentrated in certain provinces, competition with large scale thermal power plants for operating hours, and inadequate transmission capacity. 7 Figure 3: China 2018 Curtailment of Wind (Left) and Solar PV (Right) 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% 100 80 60 40 20 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% 16 11% 2013 2014 Wind Curtailment (TWh) PV Curtailment (TWh)Wind Curtailment Rate PV Curtailment Rate 2015 2014 2 9% 11% 10% 6% 3% 5 5 77 20152016 20162017 20172018 2018 8% 15% 17% 12% 7% 13 34 50 42 28 6 Energy Transition Trends 2019 Release of Renewable Energy Obligation Draft China plans to adopt provincial level targets for renewable electricity consumption in 2019. The implementation mechanisms consist of a renewable obligation enforced by provincial grid companies, and green certificates that enable compliance entities to meet their obligation. The government kicked off the development of China’s renewable energy obligation policy in 2001. 9 Due to provincial objections and other factors, the policy has experienced delays lasting nearly two decades. In 2017, National Energy Administration (NEA) relaunched the process and issued a third renewable obligation policy draft in November 2018. 10 The policy sets an explicit goal of encouraging renewable electricity consumption, especially to increase short-term uptake of existing wind and solar. It also aims to address wind and solar curtailment, inadequate transmission of renewable energy between provinces, and bilateral power trading that might discourage large customers from purchasing clean energy. NEA sets renewable electricity consumption targets by province and provides measures to achieve them. Those entities include provincial grid companies, stated-owned and private distribution grid companies, electricity retail companies, industrial enterprises owning their own power plants, and large end-users participating in bilateral electricity trading. Present plans call for the policy to go into effect in 2019. New Wind Power Projects Required to Participate in Tenders Since 2019 As NEA pushes to wind down feed-in tariffs for new projects, since the beginning 2019 China has required all new provincial centralized onshore wind and offshore wind power projects to participate in tenders to receive construction quotas and feed-in tariff subsidies. The weight of price in assessing bids is at least 40%. In December 2018, wind-rich Ningxia province announced the bidding results for its first wind power auction. 11 The auction results show that price was not the only factor in determining winning bids. Figure 4: Ningxia Onshore Wind Power Auction Results Benchmark Fit: RMB 0.49/kWh 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 Winning Price (RMB/kWh ) 201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Project Serial Number (Approved) A Nationwide Unified Solar Tendering System is under Discussion China has long experience with renewable energy tenders: NDRC launched the first renewable tender in 2003. 13 Since 2016, the government allowed all utility-scale PV projects to participate in tenders. As a reward for regions that have used competitive bidding to reduce FiT subsidy payments, the government grants proportionally higher annual provincial PV construction quotas. 14 This policy, designed to lower costs and reduce the subsidy burden, has partially achieved these objectives. 15 Policymakers are now discussing a nationwide solar tendering system to replace provincial feed-in tariff capacity quotas. One possibility is an annual national tendering process, in which provincial governments would provide a list of local tendering projects to NEA, and NEA would select projects based on accept