海通国际：10月份风光装机继续保持高增，产业链价格下降空间有限.pdf

[Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。 (Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please ee APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 核心观点： 10 月火电、太阳能发电增速加快，水电增速回落，核电由增转降，风电降幅扩大。 10 月份，全国发电量 7044 亿千 瓦时，同比增长 5.2%，增速环比放缓 2.5 个百分点。分品种看，火电增长 4.0%，增速环比加快 1.7pct；水电增长 21.8%，增速环比回落 17.4pct；核电下降 0.2%， 9 月份增速为 6.7%；风电下降 13.1%，降幅环比扩大 11.5pct；太阳 能发电增长 15.3%，增速环比加快 8.5pct。预计未来三年国内电力需求仍保持刚性增长，电力运营商业绩有望持续改 善。 装机继续保持高增 ，产业链价格跌幅收窄，未来下降空间较小 。 2023 年 1-10 月 份 国内光伏累计新增装机规模为 142.56GW，同比增长 144.78%， 10 月份，国内光伏新增装机规模为 13.62GW，同比增长 141.5%，全年 170GW 新增 装机预期保持不变 。 产业链价格端方面，价格跌幅继续收窄， 需求侧 从硅料 谈判积极性和签单规模方面来看，均持 续出现回温态势，供应端保持整体增量趋势 ， 硅片价格已经逼近生产企业的盈利成本线，预期后续跌价空间与幅度 将十分有限 ， G12 尺寸电池片成交价格则因为供需的错配再度上扬 ， 二三线 PERC厂商几乎没有盈利空间， 组件价格 已无太多下降空间。 碳酸锂价格 延续下跌态势 ，看好 有估值弹性的快充技术和性能升级方向。 供应端，由于碳酸锂价格下行，部分碳酸 锂生产企业再度减产，主要集中在江西地区。随着前期检修的锂盐厂逐渐复产、生产技术进步，我们预计 11 月锂盐 供应环比持平。需求端，短期动力及储能订单量不会有太大增量，我们预计，下周碳酸锂价格会缓慢震荡下跌。 宁 德时代董事长和广汽集团董事长展开深入交流 ， 双方将联合开发神行超充电池 “低温版 ”和 “长寿命版 ”。 现阶段 ， 我们 看好锂电产业链盈利见底后，有估值弹性的快充技术和性能升级方向，建议关注具备海外布局先发优势以及新技术 储备充分的头部电池厂商。 中美发表阳光之乡声明，全球能源转型有望加 速。 中美两国支持二十国集团领导人宣言所述努力争取到 2030 年全球 可再生能源装机增至三倍， 全球 风电有望维持高增长趋势， 价格端方面， 原材料价格分化，钢材价格环比有所上 涨， 环氧树脂价格环比继续下跌， 风机中标价格趋稳，并有触底回升趋势， 风电整机商毛利率有望边际改善， 招标 规模维持高位，景气度有望持续。 电网投资增速修复明显，电力智能巡检有望成为新方向 。 2023年 1-9月电网基本建设投资完成额 3287亿元，同比增 长 4.22%， 9月投资金额 582 亿元，同比增长 19.51%，环比增长 150.86%， 电网投资有望在十五五期间继续维持高景 气度 。 细分 版块 如 电力智能巡检吸引市场关注，有望成为投资新方向。 中国 LNG 到岸价及市场价均继续上涨。 LNG 价格随着北方地区大面积供暖导致的下游取暖需求增加以及部分城燃出 现补库需求而上涨。截止 2023 年 11月 20 日，中国 LNG 到岸价为 17.63 美元 /百万英热，较前一周上涨了 12.36%。 截止 2023年 11月 17日，中国 LNG市场价为 5223.2元 /立方米，较前一周上涨 3.02%。 投资建议： 建议关注 有估值弹性的快充技术 和性能升级方向，建议关注具备海外布局先发优势以及新技术储备充分 的头部电池厂商 ； 同时建议关注风电零部件及电网一二次设备企业 。 风险提示： 新能源政策推进不及预期；电力市场改革不及预期；传统能源商品价格波动剧烈等。 [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 22 Nov 2023 ESG 年用气量 240 一 360 立方米 (含 ) 第二阶梯气价由每立方米 3.20 元调整为 3.48 元 ;年用气量 360 立方米以上第三阶梯气价由每立方米 4.00 元调整为 4.28 元 山东省 德州市 德城区、 天衢 新区 《关于落实居民用气价 格联动政策的通知》、 《德州市管道天然气价 格上下游联动办法》 从 2023 年 12 月 1 日起，第一阶梯年用气量 216 立方米及以 下，价格为 2.87元 /立方米（含税，下同）；第二阶梯年用气 量 216-336 立方米（含），价格为 3.31 元 /立方米；第三阶梯 年用气量 336 立方米以上，价格为 3.97 元 /立方米。 资料来源：各政府网站， HTI 22 Nov 2023 19 [Table_header1] ESG hydropower increased by 21.8%, and the growth rate dropped by 17.4 pct month-on-month; nuclear power decreased by 0.2%, and the growth rate in September was 6.7%; wind power decreased by 13.1%, and the rate of decline expanded by 11.5pct month -on-month; solar power generation increased by 15.3%, and the growth rate accelerated by 8.5pct mom. Domestic power demand is expected to maintain rigid growth in the next three years, and the performance of power operators is expected to continue to improve. The installed capacity continues to maintain high growth, and the decline in industrial chain prices has narrowed. From January to October 2023, the cumulative new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaics was 142.56GW, an increase of 144.78% yoy. In October, the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaics was 13.62GW, an increase of 141.5% yoy. The expected new installed capacity of 170GW for the whole year remains unchanged. On the price side of the industrial chain, the price decline continues to narrow. The supply side maintains an overall incremental trend, and the price of silicon wafers has approached the profit-cost line. It is expected that the space and extent of subsequent price drops will be very limited. The transaction price of G12 size battery wafers rises due to supply and demand mismatch, The second and third-tier PERC manufacturers have almost no profit, and there is no decrease room in component prices. Lithium carbonate prices continue to decline and are optimistic about fast-charging technology with valuation flexibility and performance upgrades. On the supply side, due to the downward price of lithium carbonate, some lithium carbonate production enterprises have reduced production again, mainly concentrated in the Jiangxi province. With the gradual resumption of production and progress in production technology of the lithium salt factory undergoing preliminary maintenance, we expect the lithium salt supply to remain flat month on month in November. On the demand side, there will not be a significant increase in short-term power and energy storage orders. We expect that lithium carbonate prices will slowly fluctuate and decline next week. The Chairman of CATL and the Chairman of GAC Group have had in-depth exchanges, and the two sides will jointly develop the “Low Temperature Edition“ and “Long Life Edition“ of Shenxing Supercharged Battery. At present, we are optimistic about fast charging technology and performance upgrade directions with valuation flexibility after the lithium battery industry chain bottoms out. We suggest paying attention to top battery manufacturers with overseas layout advantages and sufficient reserves of new technologies. China and the United States have issued a Declaration, indicating that the global energy transformation is expected to accelerate. China and the United States support the G20 Leaders Declaration to triple the global installed capacity of renewable energy by 2030. With differentiated raw material prices, a month-on-month increase in steel prices, stable wind turbine bid prices, and a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The bidding scale remains high, and the prosperity is expected to continue. The growth rate of power grid investment has been significantly repaired, and intelligent power line inspection is expected to become a new investment direction. From January to September 2023, the completed investment in the basic construction of the power grid was 328.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.22%. The investment amount in September was 58.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.51%, and a month-on-month increase of 150.86%. The electric power intelligent inspection conference has attracted market attention and is expected to become a new investment direction. The CIF and market prices of LNG in China continue to rise. The price of LNG has increased with the increase in downstream heating demand caused by large-scale heating in the northern region and the demand for replenishment of some urban fuel. As of November 20, 2023, the CIF price of LNG in China was $17.63 per million British heat, an increase of 12.36% compared to the previous week. As of November 17, 2023, the market price of LNG in China was 5223.2 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 3.02% compared to the previous week. Investment advice: It is suggested to focus on fast charging technologies with valuation flexibility and performance upgrade directions, and top battery manufacturers with overseas layout advantages and sufficient reserves of new technologies; It is also suggested to pay attention to wind power components and primary and secondary equipment enterprises in the power grid sector. Risks: Unexpected delays in renewable energy policies, slower-than-expected reforms in the electricity market, and significant fluctuations in prices. 22 [Table_APPENDIX] [ able_disclaimer] 附录 APPENDIX 重要信息披露 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司 (HT IR L )， Hait ong Securities India Private Limited (HSIPL)， Haito ng International Japan K.K. (HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公 司 (HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团 (HTIS G )各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE S This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equit y research teams of Haitong International Research Limited (“HTIRL”), Haitong Securities India Privat e Limited (“HSIPL”), Haitong International Japan K.K. (“HTIJKK”), Haitong International Securities Company Limited (“HTISCL”), and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Grou p of Companies (“HTISG”), each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction. HTIRL分析师认证 Analyst Certification: 我， 杨斌，在此保证（ i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达 的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究 报告发布后的 3 个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。 I, Bin Yang, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or a ll of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be direc tly or indirectly related to the specific recommen datio ns or views expres s e d in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. I and my ho usehold, whom I have already notified of this, will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review with in 3 business days after the research report is published. 利益冲突披露 Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和 /或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保 证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至 E RD -Dis clo sur e@ htis ec .c o m） HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and / or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report. As far as this research report is concerned, the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship (As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness, please send an email to ERD-Disclosur e@ htis ec .c o m if timely and comprehensi ve information is needed). 海通证券股份有限公司和 /或其子公司（统称 “海通 ”）在过去 12个月内参与了 6 009 38 .C H 的投资银 行项目。投资银行项目包括： 1、海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次 公开发行项目； 2、海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目； 3、海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。 Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. and/or its subsidiaries (collectivel y, the “Haitong“) have a role in investment banking projects of 600938.CH within the past 12 months. The investment banking project s include 1. IPO projects in which Haitong acted as pre -listing tutor, sponsor, or lead-underwriter ; 2. equity or debt refinancing projects of 600938.CH for which Haitong acted as sponsor, lead - underwriter or financial advisor; 3. listing by introduction in the new three board, target placement, M 其他所有中国概念股 – MSCI China. Ratings Definitions (from 1 Jul 2020): Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform , 评级分布 Rating Distribution 23 Neutral, or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research. In addition, since Haitong Internation a l Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst s views, investors should carefully read Haitong International Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investmen t advice. An investor s decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor s existing holdings) and other considerations. Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Neutral: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distributio n rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Underperform: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each stock’s listed region are as follows: Japan – TOPIX, Korea – KOSPI, Taiwan – TAIEX, India – Nifty100, US – SP500; for all othe r China-concept stocks – MSCI China. 截至 2023年 9 月 30日海通国际股票研究评级分布 优于大市 中性 弱于大市 (持有 ) 海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.3 % 1.1 % 9.6% 投资银行客户 * 3.9 % 5.8 % 10.0% *在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。 上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出 分别 对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。 只有根据 FINR A/ NYSE 的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含 非评级 的股票。 此前的评级系统定义（直至 2020年 6 月 30日）： 买入，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在 10 %以上，基准定义如下 中性，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据 FI NR A/N YSE 的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。 卖出，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在 10 %以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本 – TOPIX, 韩国 – KOSPI, 台湾 – TAIEX, 印度 – Nifty100; 其他所有中国概念股 – MSCI China. Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 30, 2023 O utp er for m Ne utral Underperfor m (h old ) HTI E quit y Re sear c h C o verag e 89.3 % 1.1 % 9.6% IB clie nts* 3.9 % 5.8 % 10.0% *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. BUY, Neutral, and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. Previous rating system definitions (until 30 Jun 2020): BUY: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. NEUTRAL: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. SELL: The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each stock’s listed region are as follows: Japan – TOPIX, Korea – KOSPI, Taiwan – TAIEX, India – Nifty100; for all other China-concept stocks – MSCI China. 海通国际非评级研究： 海通国际发布 计 量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为 24 Haitong International Non-Rated Research: Haitong International publishes quantitative, screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may s ugges t prices based on possible valuation multiples. Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only. 海通国际 A 股覆盖 ： 海通国际 可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国 A 股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券 （ 600 83 7. CH） ，海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国 A 股的研究报告。但 是， 海通国际 使用与海通证券不同的评级系统，所以 海通国际 与海通证券的中国 A 股评级可能有所不同。 Haitong International Coverage of A -Shares: Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen. Haiton g Securities (HS; 600837 CH), the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai, covers and publishes researc h on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China. However, the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and HS ratings for t he same A-share stocks. 海通国际 优质 100 A 股 （ Q100