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An IET Guide Energy technologies for net zero theiet.org/tech-for-net-zero© The Institution of Engineering and Technology ii Publication information Published by: Institution of Engineering and Technology, London, United Kingdom The Institution of Engineering and Technology is registered as a Charity in England & Wales (no. 211014) and Scotland (no. SC038698). © 2021 The Institution of Engineering and Technology This publication is copyright under the Berne Convention and the Universal Copyright Convention. All rights reserved. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, only with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. 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Typeset by S4Carlisle Printed in the UK by Hobbs the Printer Ltd Front Matter.indd 2 Front Matter.indd 2 9/24/21 4:08 PM 9/24/21 4:08 PM© The Institution of Engineering and Technology iii Contents Authors iv Acknowledgements v Foreword vi Technologies A-Z vii Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 What is Net Zero? 1 1.2 What is this Guide and Who is it for? 1 1.3 Energy & Power: Units & Scale 1 1.4 UK Emissions 2 1.5 Chapter 1 Endnotes & References 3 Chapter 2 The UK Energy Sector 5 2.1 UK Energy Flows 5 2.2 UK Energy Infrastructure 6 2.3 Chapter 2 Endnotes & References 8 Chapter 3 Energy Demand Technologies for Net Zero 9 3.1 Heating & Cooling 9 3.2 Transport 17 3.3 Electrical Appliances, Machines & Lights 27 3.4 Chapter 3 Endnotes & References 30 Chapter 4 Energy Infrastructure for Net Zero 43 4.1 Electricity Generation 43 4.2 Life Cycle Emissions of Electricity Generation 50 4.3 Renewable Electricity Resources 52 4.4 Electricity Network 53 4.5 Fuels for Net Zero 57 4.6 Life Cycle Emissions of Gaseous Fuels 61 4.7 Gas/Hydrogen Network 62 4.8 District Heating 64 4.9 Buildings 65 4.10 Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) 70 4.11 Energy Storage 73 4.12 Chapter 4 Endnotes & References 79 Chapter 5 Energy Systems for Net Zero 97 5.1 Energy Carriers 97 5.2 Pathways to Net Zero 99 5.3 Chapter 5 Endnotes & References 112 Chapter 6 Conclusion: A Vision of the 2050 Energy System 113 Chapter 7 Annex: The Chemistry of Energy Systems 115 7.1 The Carbon Cycle 115 7.2 The Nitrogen Cycle 118 7.3 Annex References 121 Glossary 123 Front Matter.indd 3 Front Matter.indd 3 9/22/21 9:35 AM 9/22/21 9:35 AM© The Institution of Engineering and Technology iv Dr James Dixon – Institute for Energy & Environment, Department of Electronic & Electrical Engineer- ing, University of Strathclyde & Transport Studies Unit and Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford James Dixon is a researcher with the Institute for Energy & Environment at the University of Strathclyde and the Transport Studies Unit and Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, working on the interplay between transport, electricity systems and demand flexibility in advancing understand- ing of Net Zero trajectories for the transport-energy system. He has also worked as an Energy Systems Technical Specialist at the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, advising policy units and ministers on issues relating to low-carbon energy systems, and as an engineer in the aerospace (Rolls-Royce) and nuclear (UK Atomic Energy Authority) industries. Susan Brush – Institute for Energy & Environment, Department of Electronic & Electrical Engineering, University of Strathclyde Susan Brush is a researcher with the EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Future Power Networks and Smart Grids, completing a PhD on a comparison of electricity system reinforcement with alternatives to enable Net Zero. Susan holds an MSc in Renewable Energy Systems and the Environment, an MSc in Environmental Technology and a BEng (Hons) in Science and Engineering of Metals and Materials. Susan has worked as the Environmental Manager at a steelworks, an Environmental Consultant and in an ana- lytical chemistry laboratory, as well as an outdoors activities instructor, a potato-picker, a fruit-packer and a volunteer at a wildlife trust. Susan is a Practitioner Member of IEMA and an Associate Member of the Energy Institute. Dr Graeme Flett – Energy Systems Research Unit, Department of Aerospace & Mechanical Engineering, University of Strathclyde Graeme Flett is a researcher with the Energy Systems Research Unit at the University of Strathclyde, working on high resolution modelling of energy demand and supply within small communities, and how communities can be integrated with renewable microgeneration systems. Aside from his special- ist knowledge on buildings, their energy demand and how it can be decarbonised in the transition to net zero, Graeme has 17 years’ engineering experience in specialty gas systems for major electronics companies, specialising in process engineering, ultra-high purity gas and chemical systems and system design & analysis. Prof Keith Bell – Institute for Energy & Environment, Department of Electronic & Electrical Engineering, University of Strathclyde Keith Bell is the holder of the ScottishPower Chair in Smart Grids at the University of Strathclyde, a co- director of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) and a member of the Climate Change Committee (CCC). He is an invited expert member of CIGRE Study Committee C1 on System Development and Eco- nomics, a member of the Executive Board of the Power Systems Computation Conference and a member of the Executive Committee of the IET Power Academy, an initiative to promote electric power engineer- ing as a graduate career in the UK. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh and a Chartered En- gineer. At different times, he has advised the Scottish Government, the Republic of Ireland government, Ofgem and the UK Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy on power systems issues. Dr Nick Kelly – Energy Systems Research Unit, Department of Aerospace & Mechanical Engineering, University of Strathclyde Nick Kelly is a Reader in the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and an Associate Director of the Energy Systems Research Unit (ESRU) at the University of Strathclyde. His expertise is in the modelling and analysis of microgeneration technologies integrated into conventional and low- carbon buildings, with over 90 publications in this area. Nick is the current Chair of IBPSA-Scotland and an affiliate of the Energy Institute. Authors Front Matter.indd 4 Front Matter.indd 4 9/22/21 9:35 AM 9/22/21 9:35 AM© The Institution of Engineering and Technology v Acknowledgements We thank Siv Almaas, of Almaas Technologies Ltd., and Graeme Hawker, of the University of Strathclyde, for assistance with the sections of this Guide describing the gas grid and gas storage in Britain. We thank Finlay Asher of Green Sky Thinking and William Dobson of Rolls-Royce plc for providing invaluable information, insights and references on technology options for the decarbonisation of the aviation sec- tor, and Dimitri Mignard, of the University of Edinburgh, for providing us with useful information relating to synthetic fuel manufacturing. We thank David Cole and Paul Littler of Atkins Ltd., who gave us their time to discuss the level of flexibility of nuclear power. We thank Andrew Lyden, of the University of Strathclyde, for background research and drafting support for the solar thermal and heat pump sections. Iain Struthers, of the University of Edinburgh, kindly shared information and his thoughts on marine and other renewable energy resources in the UK, and also relating to greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation. We are grateful to Grant Wilson, of the University of Birmingham, for generously sharing his data describing daily energy use in Britain, covering gas, electricity, transport fuels and gas storage. We thank Christian Brand, of the University of Oxford, for providing us with data on decarboni- sation pathways for the UK vehicle fleet. We thank Janet Moxley, formerly of the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, for input into the chemistry annex, and carbon and nitrogen cycles. We thank Rebecca Hall and Peter Taylor, of the EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Wind & Marine Energy Systems at the University of Strathclyde, for information about wind turbine arrangements in offshore windfarms. Finally, we thank Jonathan Bowes, of the University of Strathclyde and ClimateXChange, for being a mine of information on various topics. Front Matter.indd 5 Front Matter.indd 5 9/22/21 9:35 AM 9/22/21 9:35 AM© The Institution of Engineering and Technology vi In November 2021, the UK will host the 26 th Conference of Parties (COP26), the most important event in international climate change negotiations since the 2015 Paris Agreement. COP26 will determine each member state’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in eliminating net greenhouse gas emissions and limiting the effects of global warming. Amongst other things, this means weaning ourselves off fos- sil fuels. In 2019, 78% of UK final energy demand was derived from burning fossil fuels. While this is the lowest proportion it has been since the Industrial Revolution, it demonstrates the scale of the challenge ahead. The transition to Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions will rely on people and technology. Technology en- ables us to drastically reduce our dependence on fossil fuels by shifting our energy demand to sustain- able energy carriers such as electricity from renewable sources and low-carbon hydrogen. However, the success of technology depends on people and their active involvement in making low-carbon choices in how they travel, how they heat their homes, what they buy and what they eat. The UK Climate Assem- bly in 2020 has shown that if people understand what is needed and why, if they have options and can be involved in decision-making processes, then they will support the transition to Net Zero. This highlights the vital importance of a just transition. To succeed, a Net Zero transition must be fair, without adverse effects on peoples’ jobs and quality of life. People, places and communities must be well-supported. The roles of societal and technological changes in achieving Net Zero are uncertain, though analysis of seven published Net Zero pathways towards the end of this guide (§5.2) allows us to conclude that: • A pathway to Net Zero that relies on less behavioural change relies on more significant changes in technology. • A pathway to Net Zero that relies on more behavioural change relies on less significant changes in technology. However, no matter the level of behavioural change that is assumed to be achievable, technology plays a pivotal role. A third concluding message is therefore: • Significant changes in technology are required to meet Net Zero. This guide serves as a comprehensive reference to the technologies that we can use to decarbonise the UK energy system, that can shift our energy demand from fossil fuels to a low-carbon supply. As we continue the run-up to COP26, it is critical that policymakers, stakeholders and the public have a base level of fluency in these technologies – what they are, how they work, how they interact with the rest of the energy system and to what extent they can (or can’t) help us to get to Net Zero. This guide is designed to provide that fluency. As evidenced from this guide, there is an abundance of technology options for a Net Zero energy system. However, some are more suited to the UK – in terms of its renewable resources, existing infrastructure and evolving energy demand ‘culture’ – than others. After going through these options sector by sec- tor, this guide presents comparative analysis of a set of seven published Net Zero pathways to uncover what our decarbonised energy system – both supply and demand – in 2050 will probably look like (§6). This guide is designed to make it easy to flick to a specific Net Zero energy technology for the key facts (see the Technologies A-Z), but those who want a thorough explanation of Net Zero technology options for the energy sector may benefit from reading from cover to cover. Any terms and abbreviations used are defined at the first point of use and in a glossary (§8) at the end of this guide. Foreword Front Matter.indd 6 Front Matter.indd 6 9/22/21 9:35 AM 9/22/21 9:35 AM© The Institution of Engineering and Technology vii Topic Page Ammonia 60 Aviation 25 Bioenergy for electricity generation 47, 59 Biofuels for transport 60 Bioenergy for heating 16, 60 Building efficiency 65 Building standards 68 Carbon capture, utilisation & storage 70 Demand reduction - surface transport 22 District heating 13, 64 E-bikes 21 Electric vehicles 20 Electricity demand 27 Electricity network 53 Electricity storage 73 Emissions of electricity generation 50 Emissions of gaseous fuels 61 Fossil fuels with carbon capture & storage for electricity generation 50 Freight 24 Gas & hydrogen storage 76 Gas network 62 Heat pumps 11 Heat storage 77 Hydro & geothermal electricity generation 49 Hydrogen for heating 14, 63 Hydrogen network 62 Hydrogen production 57 Net Zero pathways 99 Nuclear energy 48 Public transport 22 Renewable electricity resources 52 Shipping 26 Smart grids 54 Solar electricity generation 44 Solar thermal heating 16, 68 Synthetic fuels 61 Wave & tidal electricity generation 46 Wind electricity generation 43 Technologies A-Z Front Matter.indd 7 Front Matter.indd 7 9/24/21 4:09 PM 9/24/21 4:09 PMFront Matter.indd 8 Front Matter.indd 8 9/22/21 9:35 AM 9/22/21 9:35 AM© The Institution of Engineering and Technology 1 Chapter 1 – Introduction 1.1 What is Net Zero? Net Zero is a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions tar- get binding the UK to bring all GHG emissions to Net Zero by 2050 [1.1]. This means that certain sectors (such as aviation and agriculture) can have positive emissions in 2050 – so long as others have negative emissions to resul