2050年氢气预测（英）-DNV.pdf

HYDROGEN FORECAST TO 2050 Energy Transition Outlook 20222 DNV — Hydrogen forecast to 2050 CONTENTS Foreword 3 Highlights 4 1 Introduction 8 1.1 Properties of hydrogen 9 1.2 Today’s industrial use and ambitions 12 1.3 Hydrogen value chains 15 1.4 Safety, risks and hazards 20 1.5 Hydrogen investments risks 26 2 Hydrogen policies and strategies 30 2.1 Policy and the hydrogen transition 30 2.2 Details on the policy and regulatory landscape 34 2.3 Regional hydrogen policy developments 37 2.4 Policy factors in our hydrogen forecast 46 3 Producing hydrogen 48 3.1 Ways of producing hydrogen 48 3.2 Hydrogen from fossil fuels: methane reforming and coal gasification 50 3.3 Hydrogen from electricity: electrolysis 52 4 Storage and transport 56 4.1 Ways of transporting and storing hydrogen 56 4.2 Storage 58 4.3 Transmission transport system 61 4.4 Distribution pipelines 65 4.5 Shipping hydrogen 66 5 Hydrogen: forecast demand and supply 70 5.1 Hydrogen production 73 5.2 Hydrogen as feedstock 78 5.3 Hydrogen as energy 81 6 Trade infrastructure 92 6.1 Seaborne interregional transport 93 6.2 Pipeline transport 94 7 Deep dive: evolution of value chains 96 7 .1 Four competing hydrogen value chains 96 7 .2 Solar PV in Southern Spain 98 7 .3 Geothermal energy in Iceland 101 7 .4 Offshore wind on the North Sea 104 7 .5 Nuclear power 106 7 .5 Comparison and conclusion 108 References 110 Project team 113 3 Foreword FOREWORD Remi Eriksen Group president and CEO DNV Welcome to DNV’s first standalone forecast of hydrogen in the energy transition through to 2050. While there are ambitious statements about the prominent role that hydrogen could play in the energy transition, the amount of low-carbon and renewable hydrogen currently being produced is negligible. That, of course, will change. But the key questions are, when and by how much? We find that hydrogen is likely to satisfy just 5% of global energy demand by 2050 — two thirds less than it should be in a net zero pathway. Clearly, much stronger policies are needed globally to push hydrogen to levels required to meet the Paris Agreement. Here it is instructive to look at the enabling policies in Europe where hydrogen will likely be 1 1% of the energy mix by 2050. Five percent globally translates into more than 200 million tonnes of hydrogen as an energy carrier, which is still a significant number. One fifth of this amount is ammonia, a further fifth comprises e-fuels like e-methanol and clean aviation fuel, with the remainder pure hydrogen. Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, but only available to us locked up in compounds like fossil fuels, gasses and water. It takes a great deal of energy to liberate those hydrogen molecules — either in ‘blue’ form via steam methane reforming of natural gas with CCS, or as ‘green’ hydrogen from water and renewable electricity via electrolysis. By 2050, more than 70% of hydrogen will be green. Owing to the energy losses involved in making green hydrogen, renewables should ideally first be used to chase coal and, to some extent, natural gas, out of the electricity mix. In practice, there will be some overlap, because hydrogen is an important form of storage for variable renewables. But it is inescapable that wind and solar PV are prerequisites for green hydrogen; the higher our ambitions, the greater the build-out of those sources must be. Hydrogen is expensive and inefficient compared with direct electrification. In many ways, it should be thought of as the low-carbon energy source of last resort. However, it is desperately needed. Hydrogen is especially needed in those sectors which are difficult or impossible to electrify, like aviation, shipping, and high-heat industrial processes. In certain countries, like the UK, hydrogen can to some extent be delivered to end users by existing gas distribution networks at lower costs than a wholesale switch to electricity. Because hydrogen is crucial for decarbonization, safety must not become its Achilles heel. DNV is leading critical work in this regard: hydrogen facilities can be engineered to be as safe or better than widely-accepted natural gas facilities. That means safety measures must be designed into hydrogen production and distribution systems, which must be properly operated and maintained throughout their life cycles. The same approach must extend to the hydrogen carrier, ammonia, which will be heavily used to decarbonize shipping. There, toxicity is a key concern, and must be managed accordingly. It is no easy task to analyse the technologies and policies that will kick-start and scale hydrogen and then model how hydrogen will compete with other energy carriers. As we explain in this report, there will be many hydrogen value chains, competing not just on cost, but on timing, geography, emission intensity, risk acceptance criteria, purity, and adaptability to end-use. I commend the work my colleagues have done in bringing this important forecast to you, and, as always, look forward to your feedback. 4 HIGHLIGHTS Forecast • Renewable and low-carbon hydrogen is crucial for meeting the Paris Agreement goals to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors. To meet the targets, hydrogen would need to meet around 15% of world energy demand by mid-century. • We forecast that global hydrogen uptake is very low and late relative to Paris Agreement requirements — reaching 0.5% of global final energy mix in 2030 and 5% in 2050, although the share of hydrogen in the energy mix of some world regions will be double these percentages. • Global spend on producing hydrogen for energy purposes from now until 2050 will be USD 6.8trn, with an additional USD 180bn spent on hydrogen pipelines and USD 530bn on building and operating ammonia terminals. DNV — Hydrogen forecast to 2050 Highlights 5 • Grid-based electrolysis costs will decrease significantly towards 2050 averaging around 1.5 USD/kg by then, a level that in certain regions also will be matched by green hydrogen from dedicated renewable electrolysis, and by blue hydrogen. The global average for blue hydrogen will fall from USD 2.5 in 2030 to USD 2.2/kg in 2050. In regions like the US with access to cheap gas, costs are already USD 2/kg. Globally, green hydrogen will reach cost parity with blue within the next decade. • Green hydrogen will increasingly be the cheapest form of production in most regions. By 2050, 72% of hydrogen and derivatives used as energy carriers will be electricity based, and 28% blue hydrogen from fossil fuels with CCS, down from 34% in 2030. Some regions with cheap natural gas will have a higher blue hydrogen share. • Cost considerations will lead to more than 50% of hydrogen pipelines globally being repurposed from natural gas pipelines, rising to as high as 80% in some regions, as the cost to repurpose pipelines is expected to be just 10-35% of new construction costs.6 HIGHLIGHTS HIGHLIGHTS • Hydrogen will be transported by pipelines up to medium distances within and between countries, but almost never between continents. Ammonia is safer and more convenient to transport, e.g. by ship, and 59% of energy-related ammonia will be traded between regions by 2050. • Direct use of hydrogen will be dominated by the manufacturing sector, where it replaces coal and gas in high-temperature processes. These industries, such as iron and steel, are also where the uptake starts first, in the late 2020s. • Hydrogen derivatives like ammonia, methanol and e-kerosene will play a key role in decarbonizing the heavy transport sector (aviation, maritime, and parts of trucking), but uptake only scales in the late 2030s. • We do not foresee hydrogen uptake in passenger vehicles, and only limited uptake in power generation. Hydrogen for heating of buildings, typically blended with natural gas, has an early uptake in some regions, but will not scale globally. DNV — Hydrogen forecast to 2050 7 Highlights Insights • Hydrogen requires large amounts of either precious renewable energy or extensive carbon capture and storage and should be prioritized for hard-to-abate sectors. Elsewhere, it is inefficient and expensive compared with the direct use of electricity. • Unabated fossil-based hydrogen used as an industrial feedstock (non-energy) in fertilizer and refineries can be replaced by green and blue hydrogen immediately — an important existing source of demand before fuel switching scales across energy sectors. • Safety (hydrogen) and toxicity (ammonia) are key risks. Public perception risk and financial risk are also important to manage to ensure increased hydrogen uptake. • The low and late uptake of hydrogen we foresee suggests that for hydrogen to play its optimal role in the race for net zero, much stronger policies are needed to scale beyond the present forecast, in the form of stronger mandates, demand-side measures giving confidence in offtake to producers, and higher carbon prices.8 DNV — Hydrogen forecast to 2050 Hydrogen has been used in large quantities for well over 100 years as a chemical feedstock, in fertilizer production, and in refineries. However, the present use of hydrogen as an energy carrier is negligible. That is because the production of hydrogen itself must be decarbonized — currently at high cost — before it can play a prominent role in the drive to decarbonize the energy system. That formidable cost barrier is not deterring the energy industry’s interest in hydrogen, although the number of projects with investment decisions and in a construction phase is still at a modest level. Further up the innovation pipeline, there are many feasibility studies from both existing technology suppliers, and start-ups are devel- oping more efficient and larger-scale concepts. Hydrogen normally has significant cost, complexity, efficiency, and often safety disadvantages compared with the direct use of electricity. However, for many energy sectors, the direct use of electricity is not viable, and hydrogen and its derivatives such as ammonia, methanol and e-kerosene are the prime low-carbon contenders — sometimes competing with biofuel. There is an emerging consensus that low-carbon and renewable hydrogen will play an important role in a future decarbonized energy system. How prominent a role remains uncertain, but various estimates point to hydrogen being anything from 10 to 20% of global energy use in a future low-carbon energy system. DNV’s own Pathway to Net Zero has hydrogen at 13% of a net zero energy mix by 2050 and gaining share rapidly by then. Our present task, with this forecast, is not to state what share hydrogen should take in the 2050 energy mix, but what share it is likely to take. We find that hydrogen is not on track to fulfil its full net zero role by mid-century — in fact far from it. Our forecast shows that hydrogen is likely to satisfy just 5% of energy demand by 2050. Scaling global hydrogen use is beset by a range of challenges: availability, costs, acceptability, safety, efficiency, and purity. While it is widely understood that urgent upscaling of global hydrogen use is needed to reach the Paris Agreement, the present pace of develop- ment is far too slow and nowhere near the acceleration we see in renewables, power grid, and battery storage installations. Nevertheless, there is a great deal of interest among a range of stakeholders and the media in the promise of hydrogen. Yet very few commentators are taking a careful, dispassionate look at the details behind hydrogen’s likely global growth pathway. This report is a part of DNV’s annual Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) suite of reports. The results presented here will be part of the 2022 version of the main ETO report to be released in October 2022. Our insights and conclusions in this hydrogen forecast are based on more detailed hydrogen modelling in DNV’s ETO model, including new modules for hydrogen trade and transport and a much closer study of new production methods and hydrogen derivatives. Our aim with this forecast is not to state what share hydrogen should take in the 2050 energy mix, but what share it is likely to take. The report starts by explaining the properties and present use of hydrogen, as well as safety and invest- ment risks, and continues by describing present and likely future hydrogen policies and strategies. Chapters 3 and 4 go into the details of hydrogen technologies for production, storage and transport. The results from DNV’s modelling of hydrogen uptake are presented in Chapter 5, looking at hydrogen production and use in the different energy sectors. Chapter 6 covers the trade of hydrogen. The final chapter dives into examples and a comparison of different hydrogen supply chains. 1 INTRODUCTION9 Introduction 1 1.1 Properties of hydrogen Hydrogen is both familiar and different from anything else in the energy system. As with electricity, hydrogen is an energy carrier that can be produced via renewable energy, and like electric power, it can be used to ‘charge’ batteries (comprised of fuel cells). Like a fossil fuel, hydrogen is explosive and produces heat when combusted; it can be extracted from hydrocarbons, held in tanks, moved through pipelines, and stored long term; it can be transformed between gaseous and liquid states and converted into derivatives. These properties make hydrogen a fascinating prospect in the energy transition, but also create barriers to its adoption in terms of safety, infrastructure, production, use cases, and commercial viability. Abundant, but costly to produce as a low-carbon and renewable energy carrier Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, but on Earth it is found only as part of a compound, most commonly together with oxygen in the form of water but also in hydrocarbons. 1 Abundant, but costly to produce as a low-carbon energy carrier 2 Combustible, but behaves differently to natural gas 3 Light weight, but low energy density is an issue 4 Liquid hydrogen and derivatives overcome limitations, but conversion is inefficient 5 Great potential, but also significant challenges FIGURE 1.1 Hydrogen properties $10 DNV — Hydrogen forecast to 2050 For use as an energy carrier or zero-emission fuel, hydrogen must temporarily be released from its bond with oxygen or extracted from hydrocarbons. Hydrogen is the simplest of all elements, but processes to produce it in its pure form are not so simple: they are energy intensive and involve large energy losses, have significant costs, and can produce their own carbon emissions. The main driver of widescale hydrogen use is to decarbonize the energy system, and more specifically those parts of it that are hard-to-abate (i.e., cannot be directly electrified). This makes it essential to produce and transport low or zero emission hydrogen, with efficient use of water and byproducts such as waste heat and oxygen. Hydrogen is the simplest of all elements, but processes to produce it in its pure form are not so simple: they are energy intensive and involve large ener