国际能源署-巴西、印度和美国的生物燃料政策-全球生物燃料联盟的见解（英）.pdf

v Biofuel Policy in Brazil, India and the United States Insights for the Global Biofuel Alliance 更多报告请关注星球：碳通通 The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 13 association countries and beyond. This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States The European nullmmission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries: Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Kenya Morocco Senegal Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Biofuel Policy in Brazil, India and the United States Abstract Insights for the Global Biofuel Alliance PAGE | 3 Abstract As part of its G20 presidency, India has proposed a Global Biofuel Alliance (GBA) to bring countries together to expand and create new markets for sustainable biofuels. The sharing of best practices, the technical support and the capacity building that the GBA would bring are welcome additions to international efforts to expand sustainable biofuel production and use, a key step to decarbonising transportation and heat services with secure and affordable energy supplies. This report aims to inform and focus the Alliance’s work by sharing biofuel policy insights from Brazil, India and the United States. We find that these countries have expanded biofuel production and use by designing long-term strategies, implementing the right investment signals, supporting innovation, ensuring supplies are secure and affordable, addressing sustainability concerns early and collaborating with the international community. Further, there are three priority areas that would facilitate sustainable biofuel deployment in support of the global energy transition: Identifying and helping develop markets with high potential for sustainable biofuels production, accelerating technology deployment and seeking consensus on performance-based sustainability assessments and frameworks. 更多报告请关注星球：碳通通 Biofuel Policy in Brazil, India and the United States Acknowledgements Insights for the Global Biofuel Alliance PAGE | 4 Acknowledgements, contributors and credits This study was prepared by the Renewable Energy Division in collaboration with members of the Biofuture Platform, a Clean Energy Ministerial Initiative. The study was conceived and directed by Paolo Frankl, Head of the Renewable Energy Division. The design, analysis and production of the report were led and coordinated by Jeremy Moorhouse, Bioenergy Analyst in the Renewable Energy Division. Valuable comments, feedback and guidance were provided by Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security and Toril Bosoni, Head of Oil Industry and Markets Division. We also thank Praveen Bains, Ana Alcande Bascones, Hana Chambers, Alejandra Bernal-Guzman, Astha Gupta (Consultant), Joerg Husar, and Kavita Jadhav. Members of the Biofuture Platform including Jim Spaeth (DOE – Bioenergy Technologies Office System Development and Integration Program Manager / Chair Biofuture Platform Initiative), Keith Klein (Oak Ridge National Laboratory – Distinguished Scientist), Gerarld Ostheimer (Manager of the Clean Energy Ministerial Biofuture Campaign), Andrea Rossi (IEA Bioenergy TCP – Secretary) and Adam Brown (Energy Insights Ltd. – Managing Director) made important contributions. This work benefited from review and contributions from Laís de Souza Garcia (Ministry of External Relations, Brazil – Head of the Renewable Energy Division), Marlon Arraes Jardim Leal (Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brazil – Director of Biofuels Department), George Thomas (Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India – Director International Cooperation Division). The authors would also like to thank Gregory Viscusi for editing the report and the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular Astrid Dumond. This policy insight paper was developed in close collaboration with members of the Biofuture Platform, a Clean Energy Ministerial Initiative, for which the IEA acts as facilitator. Biofuel Policy in Brazil, India and the United States Table of contents Insights for the Global Biofuel Alliance PAGE | 5 Table of contents Executive summary . 6 Introduction . 8 Sustainable biofuel production must triple by 2030 on a net zero trajectory . 8 Both conventional and advanced fuels expand . 9 Learning from policy implementation can help expand sustainable supplies 10 Expanding sustainable feedstock supply and developing new markets requires particular attention 11 Brazil . 13 United States . 17 India . 21 Lessons learned 25 Implications for the Global Biofuel Alliance 27 更多报告请关注星球：碳通通 Biofuel Policy in Brazil, India and the United States Executive summary Insights for the Global Biofuel Alliance PAGE | 6 Executive summary India has proposed a Global Biofuel Alliance that aims to support worldwide development and deployment of sustainable biofuels. The Global Biofuel Alliance (GBA) aims to establish a global partnership of national governments, agencies, industries and other stakeholders to advance sustainable biofuels technology deployment and expand sustainable biofuels market penetration. The GBA recognises that sustainable biofuels are a pillar of the global energy transition. The GBA’s governance framework and action plan will be developed over the coming months. Biofuels offer numerous advantages. Liquid biofuels in 2022 avoided near 2 million barrels of oil per day in the transport sector, over 4% of global transport demand, helping secure energy supplies during the energy crisis. Biofuels are also compatible with existing infrastructure, can be made using wastes and residues and offer economic and employment opportunities for rural communities. Sustainable biofuel production is not on track for a net zero trajectory: Global biofuel growth through 2028 is running at less than half the rate needed to help achieve net zero emissions by mid-century based on current policies and market trends. In the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, sustainable biofuel production needs to triple by 2030 to help reduce emissions from new and existing trucks, planes, ships and passenger vehicles that have few other mitigation options. Over 80% of global production is concentrated in just four markets: the United States, Brazil, Europe and Indonesia. These markets account for only half of global transport fuel demand. This share is forecast to decline to near 40% by 2028. Expanding sustainable biofuels will therefore require developing new markets and higher use in existing ones. Brazil, India and the United States showcase policies that have driven considerable growth in supply. Brazil, India and the United States have deployed policies which sustained annual growth rates above 20% over at least a five-year period. As a result, biofuels provided 22% of Brazil’s and 7% of the United States transport energy in 2022. In India, ethanol’s share of energy use in gasoline vehicles reached 6% in 2022, double 2019 levels. Six policy pillars have supported biofuel growth: Brazil, India and the United States have expanded biofuel production and use by designing long-term strategies, implementing the right investment signals, supporting innovation, ensuring supplies are secure and affordable, addressing sustainability concerns early and collaborating with the international community. Biofuel Policy in Brazil, India and the United States Executive summary Insights for the Global Biofuel Alliance PAGE | 7 Sustainable feedstock supplies are sufficient to triple biofuels production by 2030. Advanced biofuels made from organic wastes and residues, for instance, could support an additional 2.4 mboe/d by 2030, more than total biofuel production in 2022. This level of growth requires a fifteen-fold increase in advanced biofuel deployment. Conventional biofuels also expand in the IEA’s NZE Scenario, but to a lesser extent, with no net increase in cropland use for biofuels and no biofuel crops on existing forested land. The mix of advanced and conventional fuels will vary with each country. More technology development and innovation efforts are needed to expand sustainable feedstocks. The scale and pace of growth in the IEA’s NZE Scenario requires: 1) Enhancing land productivity to make the most of existing cropland and marginal land 2) Improving waste and residue collection of those feedstocks compatible with existing biofuel technologies such as residue vegetable oils 3) Deploying technologies that can process different feedstocks such as agricultural and forest residues. The Global Biofuel Alliance can accelerate the deployment of sustainable, secure and affordable biofuels. There are three priority areas that would facilitate sustainable biofuel deployment in support of the global energy transition:  Identify and help develop markets with high potential for sustainable biofuels production: Expanding biofuels production requires distinguishing high potential regions in both existing and new markets. Growing these markets will also require:  Enhancing measurement and monitoring for sustainable supplies: For priority markets, develop and apply a consistent sustainable feedstock assessment, monitoring, and reporting approach.  Assessing mixed technology development pathways: Each priority market will have its own potential for conventional and advanced biofuel technologies, as well as greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction technologies like carbon capture utilisation and storage.  Developing regional-specific policy packages learning from existing experiences. Brazil, India and the United States offer examples of six policy pillars that have worked and common challenges that can be used to support policy packages in new markets.  Accelerate technology deployment to commercialise advanced biofuels: Coordinated, international efforts are necessary to commercialise advanced biofuels at scale, vital to realising the potential of biofuels.  Seek consensus on performance-based sustainability assessments and frameworks: More consistent and internationally recognised sustainability frameworks would help improve measurement and reporting, improve GHG reductions, encourage sustainable biofuels trade and help new markets incorporate lifecycle GHG accounting into their biofuel policies. 更多报告请关注知识星球：碳通通 Biofuel Policy in Brazil, India and the United States Introduction Insights for the Global Biofuel Alliance PAGE | 8 Introduction India has proposed a Global Biofuel Alliance (GBA) to bring countries together to expand and create new markets for sustainable biofuels. The sharing of best practices, the technical support and the capacity building that the GBA would bring are welcome additions to international efforts to expand sustainable biofuel production and use, a key step to decarbonising transportation and heat services with secure and affordable energy supplies. This document aims to inform and focus the Alliance’s work by sharing policy lessons from three successful biofuel countries about the role sustainable biofuels can play in energy transitions in the transport sector. Sustainable biofuel production must triple by 2030 on a net zero trajectory In the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), sustainable biofuels play an important role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector, along with electric vehicles, more efficient engines, changes in transport modes and other clean fuels such as hydrogen. Under the NZE Scenario, sustainable biofuel demand more than triples from 2021 to 2030 across all transportation segments, including light-duty vehicles, heavy duty trucks, aviation and shipping. Only if they are sustainable, can biofuels contribute to this scenario. In the NZE, total modern, sustainable bioenergy use expands to 100 EJ by 2050, with no net increase in cropland used for bioenergy and no bioenergy crops grown on existing forested land. The NZE also meets other energy related Sustainable Development Goals such as energy access. Biofuel Policy in Brazil, India and the United States Introduction Insights for the Global Biofuel Alliance PAGE | 9 Transport energy demand by vehicle type and energy supply in the Net Zero by 2050 Scenario, 2021-2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Source: IEA (2022), World Energy Outlook. Both conventional and advanced fuels expand In the IEA’s NZE Scenario, demand for ethanol (blended with gasoline), biodiesel (blended with diesel) and biojet fuel (blended with jet fuel) expands to 2030. Most biofuels today are made from corn, sugar cane and soybeans (soyoil) with a growing share of residues such as used cooking oil 1 . However, the scale and pace of growth in the NZE Scenario requires more efficient agricultural production and new processing technologies that can use feedstocks that do not compete for land with food and animal feed. Advanced fuels account for almost half of total production in 2030, a fifteen time increase from 2021 levels. 1 Conventional biofuels include those produced from food crop feedstocks. Also known as first generation biofuels, they include sugar cane ethanol, starch-based ethanol, fatty acid methyl ester (FAME), hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) produced from vegetable oils such as palm, rapeseed, and soybean oil. Advanced biofuels include those produced from non-food crop feedstocks, which can deliver significant lifecycle GHG emission savings compared with fossil fuel alternatives, and which do not directly compete with food and feed crops for agricultural land or cause adverse sustainability impacts. In the IEA’s NZE Scenario, sustainable bioenergy and biofuels are those that are responsibly managed, do not compete with other land uses and otherwise contribute to the NZE Scenario, including helping to stabilise global average temperatures at 1.5 o C above pre-industrial levels while meeting key energy-related UN Sustainable Development Goals including energy access and improving air quality. 0 5 10 15 20 25 2021 2030 2021 2030 2021 2030 Light-duty vehicles Heavy trucks Aviation and shipping Fi nal c ons um pt i on ( m boe/ d) Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels Bioenergy Electricity Natural gas