中国的早期能源效率投资是实现碳中和与经济发展的关键_Nicholas Howarth.pdf

14 CHINA INVESTMENT Issue3 、 4, February 2022 15 中国投资 2022年2月第3 、 4期 By Nicholas Howarth and Clara Camarasa ，Energy Efficicency Policy Analysts, Energy Efficiency Division, International Energy Agency Early investment in energy efficiency in China is key for carbon neutrality and economic development China doubled its rate of energy intensity improvement over the last decade, helping lift global progress Over the last decade, the average rate of energy intensity improvement in China doubled to around 3.5% each year from the 1.7% seen between 2000 and 2010. This result was delivered despite the significant slowdown of energy intensity improvements which has been observed globally and in China since 2015. The notable improvement in energy intensity during the first half of the last decade reflects the priority placed on meeting energy intensity targets in China’s Five Year Plans (FYP) and the significant boost to efficiency spending following the 2008 financial crisis and the implementation of several mandatory energy efficiency policies. Well targeted government support has also helped build the world’s largest energy service market with Chinese Energy Service Company (ESCO) investment making up around 60% of the global market. Total annual investment in energy efficiency in China is now estimated to be around USD 70 billion, up by 15% compared with pre-crisis levels and accounting for nearly one-quarter of the global spending. Improving energy intensity will play a key role in helping achieve China’s targets to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060. At a global level, a doubling of energy intensity improvement will be needed over the next decade to reach net zero emissions by mid- century In its recently released Energy Efficiency Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that the global rate of energy intensity improvement in 2021 is expected to recover to 1.9% after its worst year in a decade. In 2020, the impact of the 观察与思考 OBSERVATION AND REFLECTION Primary energy intensity improvement, 2000-2030 IEA, All rights reserved.Note: 2021 estimate based on World Energy Outlook 2021 Key global energy and economic indicators in the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario IEA. All rights reserved14 CHINA INVESTMENT Issue3 、 4, February 2022 15 中国投资 2022年2月第3 、 4期 Covid-19 crisis saw a shift in the balance of economic avtivity away from less energy intensive services such as hospitality and energy efficiency enhancements slowed, with energy intensity improvements falling to 0.5% at the global level. While the recent economic recovery brings the rate of improvement back to its ten year average, it is still only half of what is needed to put the world on track to reach net zero emissions by mid-century. The report also examined over 40 energy efficiency actions based on the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap, to help countries achieve efficiency goals to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C. This roadmap recognises that different countries will be moving at different speeds and will also choose different options based on national resources and circumstances. For energy effcieincy such actions include scaling up use of mature technologies in buildings, appliances, transport and industry. Many of these actions are already being pursued as part of China’s industrial enterprises programmes. For example, encouraging best available technology for electric motors is key as they account for approximately 65% of total electricity consumption in China. Expanding the scope of efficiency programmes to include more manufacturing sectors – such as vehicles, machinery, food, timber and textiles – also offers large scope for efficiency gains. This is because more than 90% of heat demand in light industry is low and medium temperature, which can be more easily switched from fossil fuels to more efficient electric processes, such as heat pumps. This compares with heavy industry such as steel and cement where electrification potential is more limited. In China, the 14th FYP (2021-2025) includes a target to reduce carbon intensity by 18% by 2025 and a target for reducing energy intensity by 13.5%. This compares with a 15% energy intensity reduction target over the 2016-2020 period. As in many countries, slowing economic growth due to the pandemic and a shift towards more energy intensive sectors of the economy as restrictions reduce activity in sectors such as hospitality and tourism has slowed energy intensity improvements in China. The challenge for policy makers is to develop and implement policies that can both support economic growth and enhance environmental protection. Energy efficiency- related spending offers this solution, making up around two-thirds of all clean energy and sustainable recovery spending, according to the IEA Sustainable Recovery Tracker. While China’s past results have been impressive, the recent slowdown in intensity improvements, combined with goals to achieve carbon neutrality, makes lifting efficiency efforts more important than ever. Doubling the efficiency of new appliances by 2030 is possible and the focus of the world’s largest ever international energy efficiency initiative Efficiency standards and labels have been shown to reduce electricity demand by the equivalent of the total electricity generation of wind and solar energy in the nine countries and regions for which the data are available. Such standards have been in place longer in the European Union and United States, but China is catching up. The implementation of standards in China is already helping avoid around 5% of total national electricity consumption each year, reducing annual CO2 emissions by 80 million tonnes. These savings will grow, as old stock is replaced by more efficient equipment though standards need to be continually ratcheted up to optimise savings. Along with 21 other governments, China is a member of the Super-efficient Appliance Deployment (SEAD) Initiative – a collaboration with the IEA and other partners to accelerate and strengthen the design and implementation of appliance energy efficiency policies. Such international collaboration enables governments to design standards based on global best practice. For example, in November 2021, the IEA and the COP26 Presidency launched the COP26 Product Efficiency Call to Action to double the efficiency of key appliances by 2030 – particularly for lighting, industrial electric motor systems, air conditioning and refrigeration. The initiative aims to help countries raise ambition faster and at a lower cost. Electric mobility start-ups raise more money than other sectors, with strongest activity in China and the United States Venture capital (VC) activity can help track progress of clean energy innovation. While governments typically account for most early-stage research and development (R whilst simultaneously taking advantage of the multiple benefits associated with energy efficiency such as increased industrial productivity, local job creation, and health benefits from reduced local air pollution. Cumulative VC investments in clean energy start-ups active in fields of energy efficiency and electric mobility between 2018 and 2020, by technology area and region IEA analysis based on Cleantech Group, i3 database. All rights reserved. Notes: RoW = Rest of the World. Left hand chart is for transport venture capital investment, while right hand chart is for all other investment. Includes grants, seed, series A and B, growth equity, late-stage private equity and buyout, private investment in public equity, and coin/token offering financing rounds. The figure excludes very large investments of USD 500 million and above in a single deal that distort annual trends. These aggregated to about USD 5.8 billion in China, USD 2.2 billion in the European Union, USD 20.4 billion in the United States, and USD 2.2 billion in the rest of the world. These were primarily focusing on electric mobility. Global price indices for key commodities linked to construction and efficient equipment, January 2019- August 2021 IEA. All rights reserved. 观察与思考 OBSERVATION AND REFLECTION 16 CHINA INVESTMENT Issue3 、 4, February 2022 17 中国投资 2022年2月第3 、 4期 中国的早期能源效率投资 是实现碳中和与经济发展的关键 改善能源强度将为助力中国实现在 2030 年前二氧化碳排放达到峰值， 并在 2060 年前实现碳中和的目标方面发挥关键作用 中国在过去十年里将其能源强度的 改善速度提高了一倍，推进了全球 进展 在过去的十年里，中国能源强度的 平均改善率翻了一番，从 2000-2010 年 的 1.7% 提高到每年 3.5% 左右。尽管自 2015 年以来，全球和中国的能源强度改 善速度明显放缓， 但仍取得了这一成果。 2011-2015 年间，能源强度的显著改善 反映了中国五年规划中对实现能源强度 目标的优先考虑，以及在 2008 年金融 危机和实施若干强制性能源效率政策后 对能效支出的显著推动。 目标明确的政府支持也帮助建立了 世界上最大的能源服务市场，中国能源 服务公司 (ESCO) 的投资约占全球市场 的 60%。目前，中国每年在能源效率方 面的投资总额估计约为 700 亿美元，与 疫情前的水平相比增加了 15%，占全球 支出的近 1/4。 改善能源强度将为助力中国实现在 2030 年前二氧化碳排放达到峰值，并 在 2060 年前实现碳中和的目标方面发 挥关键作用。 在全球范围内，为了在本世纪中叶 达到净零排放，需要在未来十年内 将能源强度改善率提高一倍 在最新发布的 《能源效率市场报告》 中，国际能源署 (IEA) 发现在经历了十 文｜ Nicholas Howarth and Clara Camarasa 国际能源署能效部能效分析师 图 1 一次能源强度的改善， 2000 年至 2030 年 资料来源： IEA, All rights reserved. 备注 :2021 年的估测基于世界能源展望 2021 图 2 在国际能源署 2050 年净零排放情景中的关键能源和经济指标年 资料来源： IEA. All rights reserved OBSERVATION AND REFLECTION 观察与思考18 CHINA INVESTMENT Issue3 、 4, February 2022 19 中国投资 2022年2月第3 、 4期 年来最糟糕的一年之后，2021 年全球 能源强度改善率预计将恢复到 1.9%。 2020 年，在 Covid-19 危机的影响下， 经济活动的平衡从能源密集度较低的服 务 ( 如餐旅服务业 ) 转离，能源效率的 提高也放缓，全球范围内能源强度的改 善率下降到 0.5%。虽然最近的经济复 苏使改善率回到了十年的平均水平，但 仅为本世纪中叶全球实现净零排放所需 速率的一半。 该报告还根据国际能源署的《全球 能源行业 2050 净零排放路线图》研究 了 40 多项能效行动，以帮助各国实现 能效目标，将全球温度上升限制在 1.5 摄氏度以内。该路线图认识到，不同的 国家将以不同的速度前进，也将根据各 国资源和情况选择不同的方案。在能源 效率方面， 这些行动包括在建筑、 电器、 交通和工业中扩大使用成熟技术。 这些行动中有许多作为中国工业企 业计划的一部分已经实施。例如，电机 占据中国电力消纳约 65%，因此鼓励采 用最佳可用电机技术至关重要。 通过囊括更多的制造部门 （如车辆、 机械、食品、木材和纺织品）扩大能效 行动的范围，也提供了巨大的效率提高 空间。这是因为轻工业中 90% 以上的 热需求是中低温的，可以更容易地从化 石燃料转向更高效的电力过程， 如热泵。 与此相比，钢铁和水泥等重工业的电气 转化潜力更为有限。 在中国，十四五规划 (2021-2025) 涵盖了到 2025 年将碳强度降低 18% 的目标和将能源强度降低 13.5% 的目 标。与此相比，2016-2020 年期间的 能源强度降低目标为 15%。与许多国家 一样，由于新冠疫情导致的经济增长放 缓，以及随着限制措施减少餐旅服务业 和旅游业等部门的活动，经济向能源密 集型产业的转移，减缓了中国能源强度 的改善。政策制定者面临的挑战是制定 和实施既能支持经济增长，又能加强环 境保护的政策。根据国际能源署《可持 续复苏跟踪》能源效率相关的支出占所 有清洁能源和可持续复苏支出的 2/3 左 右，提供了相应的解决方案。中国过去 的成果令人印象深刻，但最近能源强度 改善的放缓，加上实现碳中和的目标， 使得提升能效的努力比以往任何时候都 更加重要。 到 2030 年将新电器的效率提高一 倍是可能的，这也是世界上有史以 来最大的国际能源效率倡议的重点 在有数据可查的九个国家和地区中， 效率标准和标签减少的电力需求量，相 当于风能和太阳能的总发电量。这些标 准在欧盟和美国实施的时间更长，但中 国正在迎头赶上。在中国，标准的实施 已经帮助每年避免了全国总电力消耗的 5% 左右，每年减少 8000 万吨的二氧 化碳排放。随着旧设备被更高效的设备 所取代，这些节约将越来越多，尽管标 准需要不断提高以优化节能。 与其他2 1个国家的政府一起 ， 中国是 “超高效设备和家电推广计 划”(SEAD) 倡议的成员，该倡议与国 际能源署和其他合作伙伴合作一起，以 加速和加强家电能效政策的设计和实施。 这种国际合作使各国政府能够在全 球最佳实践的基础上设计标准。例如， 2021 年 11 月，国际能源署和联合国第 二十六届气候变化大会（COP26） 主 席国发起了COP26产品能效行动呼吁， 以实现于 2030 年将主要电器的能效提 高一倍，特别是照明、工业电机系统、 空调和制冷。该倡议旨在帮助各国以更 低的成本更快地 提高气候雄心。 电动出行初创企业比其他行业筹集 更多资金，在中国和美国的活动最 有力 风险投资 (VC) 活动可以帮助跟踪 清洁能源创新的进展。政府通常占早期 研究和开发 (R 同时 利用与能源效率相关的多种益处，如 提高工业生产力、 创造当地就业机会， 以及减少当地空气污染带来的公共卫 生改善。 图 5 与建筑和高效设备相关的主要商品的全球价格指数 2019 年 1 月至 2021 年 8 月 资料来源： IEA. All rights reserved. 图 4 对活跃在能源效率和电动汽车领域的清洁能源初创企业的累计风险投资情况， 按技术领域和地区 划分， 2018 年至 2020 年 资料来源： IEA analysis based on Cleantech Group, i3 database. All rights reserved. 备注 :RoW = 世界其他地区。 左图是交通领域风险资本投资， 而右图是所有其他投资。 包括赠款、 种子、 A 轮和 B 轮 投资、 成长型股权、 后期私募股权和收购、 公共股权的私人投资以及货币 / 代币发行融资回合。 该数字不包括单笔交 易中的 5 亿美元及以上的 大额投资， 因为这些投资扭曲了年度趋势。 这些投资总额在中国约为 58 亿美元， 在欧盟约 为 22 亿美元， 在美国约为 204 亿美 元， 在世界其他地区为约 22 亿美元。 这些投资主要集中在电动汽车方面。 OBSERVATION AND REFLECTION 观察与思考