全球能源转型指南：电力部门——化石燃料转型战略（英）-RMI.pdf

Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies RMI’s Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity November 2022 G L O B A L GUIDErmi.org / 2 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE About RMI RMI is an independent nonprofit founded in 1982 that transforms global energy systems through market-driven solutions to align with a 1.5°C future and secure a clean, prosperous, zero-carbon future for all. We work in the world’s most critical geographies and engage businesses, policymakers, communities, and NGOs to identify and scale energy system interventions that will cut greenhouse gas emissions at least 50 percent by 2030. RMI has offices in Basalt and Boulder, Colorado; New York City; Oakland, California; Washington, D.C.; and Beijing. rmi.org / 3 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE Cara Goldenberg Anibal Gomez Leia Guccione Genevieve Lillis Matt Sugihara Authors listed alphabetically. Contacts Matt Sugihara, msugihara@rmi.org Cara Goldenberg, cgoldenberg@rmi.org Copyrights and Citation Matt Sughiara, Cara Goldenberg, Anibal Gomez, Leia Guccione, and Genevieve Lillis, Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies — RMI’s Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity, RMI, 2022, https://rmi.org/global- energy-transformation-guide-fossil-fuel-transition-strategies RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge and insights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the Creative Commons CC BY-SA 4.0 license. https://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. All images used are from iStock.com unless otherwise noted. Authorsrmi.org / 4 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE The authors thank the following individuals for their helpful insights and/or feedback on this report. All errors remain our own. RMI Diego Angel Kingsmill Bond Koben Calhoun Francis Elisha Alex Engel Rachit Kansal Dhroovaa Khannan Whitney Mann Laetitia de Marez Acknowledgments Tyeler Matsuo Francis Ndongo Kaja Rebane Jeremy Richardson Carina Rosenbach Sakhi Shah Emma Slater Oleksiy Tatarenko Juan Vial External Catherine Abreu, E3G Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Council on Energy, Environment, and Water Ananth Chikkatur, Deloitte Consulting US Anna Collyer, Australian Energy Market Commission Tanuj Deora, independent interviewee Stephen Doig, RMI, Irving Institute for Energy and Society, and Dartmouth College Garrett Fitzgerald, Smart Electric Power Alliance Max Gruenig, E3G Jennie Jorgensen, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Architrandi Priambodo, Asian Development Bank Francisco Salazar, Enix Richard Sedano, Regulatory Assistance Project Michael Sponring, PwC Robert Stoner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Eric Wanless, Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet Dan Wetzel, International Energy Agencyrmi.org / 5 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE About This Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Global Trends Emerging in the Fossil Fuel Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 The Transition Away from Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 The Changing Role of Gas in Future Portfolios. . . . 20 Private-Sector Commitments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Mobilization of Finance to Support Transition Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Ensuring a Just Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Key Challenges and Opportunities in the Fossil Fuel Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Table of Contentsrmi.org / 6 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE How Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies Can Support Priority Outcomes . . . . . . . . . 34 Ensure a Fair and Inclusive Energy Transition . . . . 35 Create a System Poised for Sustainable Growth . . 37 Increase Efficient Utilization of Clean Assets . . . . 40 Innovation in the Fossil Fuel Transition Across Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Advanced Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Middle-Income and Emerging Markets with Dynamic Electricity Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Middle-Income and Emerging Markets with Stable Electricity Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Developing Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Spotlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Coal Transition in the United Kingdom . . . . . . . . 54 Kenya’s Growth through Clean Energy . . . . . . . . 55 Overcoming Long-Term Fossil Fuel–Generation PPAs in Chile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Stakeholder-Driven Just Transition in Canada and Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59rmi.org / 7 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE About This Report This report is part of RMI’s Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity series, which is a research endeavor aimed at understanding the leading edge of innovation for forward-thinking electricity system transitions around the world. The intent of the Global Guide is to assess new developments to secure universal access to reliable, affordable, and clean electricity by identifying key trends, exploring emerging challenges and opportunities, and sharing success stories from electricity system leaders. The series focuses on eight catalysts for change that our research has shown have the greatest potential to support electricity system transformation. These catalysts are high-impact levers available to industry leaders across countries to transform the power sector. RMI plans to publish a separate report for each of the eight catalysts to provide details on the innovation edge and where leadership is needed most.rmi.org / 8 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE This report is focused on Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies. The other catalysts in this series are: • Market Structures • System Planning and Procurement • Public Policies • Customer Solutions • Accessible Finance • Utility Incentive Structures • Carbon-Free Technology Additionally, for an introduction to this effort, explanation of the framework used to guide our discussion of different catalysts, and further context on where countries are in their energy transition, we have published a complementary report titled Points of Progress — An Introduction to RMI’s Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity. rmi.org / 9 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE Expanding energy access, supporting sustainable growth opportunities, and reducing emissions are three key factors underpinning commitments to and implementation of the global transition away from fossil fuels to clean energy sources. A variety of pressures are driving this transition, from financial institutions and shareholders to governments and utilities. In response, diverse innovative solutions are emerging across the globe that can offer important insights to countries as they craft their own strategies to navigate the transition. This report touches on five key trends prominent around the world that will have a significant impact on the successful transition away from fossil fuels. They are: • The transition away from coal. Although economics, political pressures, and policy actions have supported the decline of coal globally, coal is continuing to grow in some regions with ready access to supply and subsidized rates. • The changing role of natural gas in future generation portfolios. Although existing policies and procedures may favor deployment of gas generation in some countries, global gas demand is expected to decline because of tighter supplies, elevated prices, and increased market uncertainty. • Mobilization of finance to support transition strategies. Because transitioning large, complex fossil fuel assets is costly, the availability of innovative financing is a critical enabler to accelerate their transition. • Private-sector commitments. Investors and shareholders are increasingly integrating climate considerations into their investment strategies. Executive Summaryrmi.org / 10 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE • Ensuring a just transition. If not managed appropriately, workers and their families, as well as broader communities economically dependent on fossil fuels, will bear a disproportionate burden of the transition. All these trends need to be considered in the transition from fossil fuels. Innovation will be required (1) to transition the dirtiest plants quickly and with minimal impacts to communities and customers and (2) to develop new clean energy resources to take the place of fossil fuel generation and meet new demand growth in a fair and equitable manner. The fossil fuel transition will open new opportunities for economic growth, bringing cheaper and cleaner power, as well as associated industry and jobs to support it. To ensure economic viability, transitioning assets need to be replaced by new sources of clean energy, including renewables and demand-side resources such as energy efficiency and flexible end uses. The fossil fuel transition will need to be enabled and supported by financing, a clear pipeline of clean replacement energy projects, innovative utility programs, and new technology to support flexible, responsive, and reliable grids. This report identifies the critical challenges that countries face in transitioning their electricity systems, as well as the key opportunities they will be able to take advantage of. The latter include innovative financing methods, roles for the private sector to increase demand for clean energy, new ways workers and communities can participate in the clean economy, new technologies and business models to expand electricity access and reliability, and emerging opportunities for countries to leverage the transition for climate-forward growth. These are exemplified in case studies from around the world, such as the UK’s coal transition and Chile’s innovative methods to transition coal power purchase agreements (PPAs). As policymakers, utilities, investors, developers, civil society, and other stakeholders explore ways to support a fossil fuel transition, we hope this report provides inspiration and lessons from places that are already navigating the challenges in front of them.rmi.org / 11 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE Introduction Transitioning the world’s energy system away from fossil fuels to clean energy sources will enable countries to expand energy access, support sustainable growth opportunities, and reduce emissions, especially through expansion of renewable generation and energy- efficiency gains. i This paper focuses on the variety of pressures and strategies driving this transition away from fossil fuel generation and highlights innovative solutions emerging across the globe to share lessons and insights that can guide new efforts. The fossil fuel transition is not only about reducing power sector emissions. It will also reshape the global electricity sector and open further opportunities to decarbonize and modernize grid systems. The power sector has mature clean energy technologies with favorable economics, putting it at the leading edge of the broader energy transition. It also expands opportunities for equitable access to other end uses, such as cooking, mobility, and thermal comfort. It is important that power sector decarbonization be completed rapidly but also equitably, to ensure that communities, workers, and markets relying on the existing system benefit from the transition. i While electricity generation is the focus of this report, the fossil fuel transition can broadly include the global energy system, such as liquid fuels for transportation. The fossil fuel transition will reshape the global electricity sector and open further opportunities to decarbonize and modernize grid systems. rmi.org / 12 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE This report explores various dimensions that need to be considered in the global fossil fuel transition, including: • Reducing and avoiding emissions associated with existing and new fossil fuel generation, when possible and appropriate • Supporting fossil fuel workers, communities, and the associated economies to achieve a just transition • Appropriately wielding regulatory tools to ensure that the most economic solutions are implemented, including not only new generation, but also energy efficiency, demand response, and other non-wire alternatives • Incentivizing deployment of renewables through reduced barriers or access to capital, including support for demand-driven actions such as clean energy commitments • Recognizing the environmental co-benefits captured through clean resources • Overcoming political challenges and barriers to the fossil fuel transition Many more change levers will also govern the pace and scale of electricity sector decarbonization. RMI will be exploring the policy, planning, market, and technology pressures and opportunities in companion catalyst reports. To decarbonize the power sector, while achieving universal access to affordable and reliable electricity, the world will need to make a massive change in the way it generates and manages energy. rmi.org / 13 Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies G L O B A L GUIDE 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Solar and wind Other Renewables Electricity Generation (Terawatt-hours [TWh]) Exhibit 1 Increase in Global Power Sector Emissions and Shifts in Generation, by Source Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy; Ember, Global Electricity Review; Ember, European Electricity Review; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Solar and wind Other Renewables Electricity Generation (Terawatt-hours [TWh]) Power Sector Emissions 16 12 14 10 8 4 6 2 Power Sector CO 2 Emissions (Gigatons [Gt]/year) Electricity Generation (Terawatt-hours [TWh]) Power Sector CO 2 Emissions (Gigatons [Gt]/year) Globally, installed capacity, as shown in Exhibit 1, is still largely fossil fuel generated. For example, Global Energy Monitor estimates that: • More than 2,400 coal plants, across 79 countries, total around 2,100 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity. 1 • 9,354 gas-fired generators (above 50 megawatts [MW]), across 129 countries, total around 1,800 GW of capacity, which is known to be a significant undercount of actual generators. ii • Oil-based generation is more marginal at the utility scale but contributes to electricity generation through small generators and is widely used in certain areas, such as island states. ii Global Energy Monitor’s criteria exclude certain generation units, such as those smaller than 50 MW, as well as generation for or from liquefied natural gas. Also, the criteria often miss captured or embedded generation uni