未来能源情景2022（英）-National Grid ESO.pdf

July 2022 Future Energy Scenarios N a v ig at io n Text Pop-ups Rollover highlighted orange text to view pop-ups Text Links Click highlighted grey text to navigate to an external link. Or to jump to another section of the document Expand content Rollover or click the plus symbol to expand or enlarge content More information Rollover or click the info symbol for more information Buttons Access additional information by hovering on the rectangular buttons positioned beneath many of our charts Download a pdf To download a full copy of this report go to www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios Button To help you find the information you need quickly and easily we have published the report as an interactive document. Download the PDF in Acrobat Reader to view all interactivity. Return to contents From here you can navigate to any part of the publication Page navigation explained Back a page Forward a page C o nt e nt s Foreword Executive Summary: Key messages, energy flow diagrams and the main things you need to know Introduction: What FES is and what’s new for 2022 Net Zero: How we reflect the UK’s legislated target to decarbonise by 2050 The Energy Consumer: How individual end users interact with their energy Introduction Residential Transport Industrial Commercial The Energy System: How different energy sources interact to meet end user demand and provide value to consumers Introduction Bioenergy Supply Natural Gas Supply Hydrogen Supply Electricity Supply Flexibility: How energy demand and supply are balanced at all times to ensure system security Glossary Continuing the Conversation Legal Notice 04 06 16 24 45 46 52 67 79 89 99 100 108 119 129 153 181 225 235 236 F E S 2 0 2 2 / F o r e w o r d 0 4 F or e w or d Navigating to a Net Zero British energy system for all Since last year’s Future Energy Scenarios, the world has continued to change at pace. The impact from the pandemic is still being felt, while the devastating war in Ukraine is testing supply chains and access to fossil fuels for homes and industry. The past year has sparked recognition of the importance of a faster transition to Net Zero, to support energy security and reduce exposure to volatile international fossil fuel prices, by harnessing abundant renewable and low carbon resources. In the grips of a cost-of-living crisis, it is crucial that we never lose sight of the consumer while also focusing on delivering the broader societal benefits that can come from the transition. As a result, the Electricity System Operator (ESO) s mission has never been more important: to drive the transformation to a fully decarbonised electricity system by 2035 which is reliable, affordable and fair for all. The Future Energy Scenarios (FES 2022) sets out credible ways that the UK can achieve Net Zero by 2050, as well as the UK Government’s commitment to a decarbonised electricity system by 2035. Based on extensive stakeholder engagement, research and modelling, each scenario considers how much energy we might need; where it could come from; and how we maintain a system that is reliable. We explore how different parts of the energy system can help lower emissions across the economy – whether through smart and digital technologies, electrification, deploying new hydrogen opportunities, or incorporating Carbon Capture Usage and Storage (CCUS) into industrial clusters. We know the threat of climate change is not theoretical – we are all witnessing its impact. This has mobilised Great Britain (GB) to deliver one of the fastest decarbonising electricity systems in the world. We are working hard with the industry to deliver carbon free operation by 2025, such as through our Pathfinder projects to find innovative new ways of operating the electricity system, keeping costs down for consumers. By 2035, we want to run a fully decarbonised electricity system all the time - helping the UK on its way to meeting its legally binding target of Net Zero by 2050. Through reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and moving towards 100% renewable and low carbon energy, we can create long-term energy security and deliver sustainable economic opportunities across the country. F E S 2 0 2 2 / F o r e w o r d 0 5 F E S 2 0 2 2 / F o r e w o r d 0 5 Foreword Changing our energy mix will make us less dependent on uncertain foreign supplies, create sustainable new jobs, grow our economy and help keep the UK’s place as a global innovator in green technologies. In practice, we need to generate economy-wide solutions to help investment in the infrastructure across GB to onboard booming renewable generation. As an entire industry we need to inform and support consumers about straightforward ways to reduce their energy bills – with energy companies ensuring the best tariffs are readily available. We need reform of the GB energy market, to ensure we can best utilise the low-cost, low-carbon electricity where and when it is available. We recently published a detailed report to inform the debate on how to reform GB’s wholesale electricity market to reduce consumer costs, and this summer we published our Pathway to 2030: incorporating the Holistic Network Design (HND) report, an integrated approach to support the delivery of electricity from offshore wind to consumers across GB. As the cost of living is rising around the world, it is right for Government to look at various measures to reduce the impact on individuals and families. To stop decarbonising will mean higher costs for households, communities and businesses and put our vital energy security at risk. Investing in a renewable and low carbon future now will help bolster energy security in the future. As custodians of this vital public service, and as we transition to the ‘Future System Operator’, it is our responsibility to clearly explain the impact we think that various energy scenarios will have now and in the future. Overall, the UK’s Net Zero timetable is achievable if we work together, however there are many ways to get there. Delivering it will require a strong partnership between industry and policymakers, and full engagement across society and consumers. Never before has collaboration been more important – and, as our Future Energy Scenarios 2022 demonstrates, we must be ready to act now to secure a clean and fair system for all. Fintan Slye Executive Director, Electricity System Operator (ESO) Executive Summary LEVEL OF SOCIET AL CHANGE LOW HIGH SPEED OF DECARBONISATIONSLOW FAST NET ZERO BY 2050 FALLING SHORT • Slowest credible decarbonisation • Minimal behaviour change • Decarbonisation in power and transport but not heat SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION • Hydrogen for heating • Consumers less inclined to change behaviour • Lower energy efficiency • Supply side flexibility CONSUMER TRANSFORMATION • Electrified heating • Consumers willing to change behaviour • High energy efficiency • Demand side flexibility LEADING THE WAY • Fastest credible decarbonisation • Significant lifestyle change • Mixture of hydrogen and electrification for heating F E S 2 0 2 2 / E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y 0 7 F E S 2 0 2 2 / E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y 0 7 What are the Future Energy Scenarios and why are they important? Our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) outline four different, credible pathways for the future of energy between now and 2050. Each one considers how much energy we might need and where it could come from to try to a build a picture of the different solutions that may be required. FES is widely used by our stakeholders across the energy industry to: • underpin energy network development • support investment decisions • inform national and regional policy As well as producing FES for our stakeholders, feedback is collected as part of our comprehensive engagement work and incorporated alongside our own analysis and research to ensure that our data and insights remain robust and up to date. We also endeavour to make our data publicly available so that it can be used in academic work and innovation projects as well as to encourage challenge and collaboration. The COP26 event in Glasgow in November 2021 showed how important it is for the world to reach Net Zero emissions by 2050 if global temperatures are to remain below 1.5 degrees. Reaching this target in the UK while also delivering an energy system for all that is secure, clean, affordable and fair is possible but will require a transition in how energy is both consumed and supplied. The Scenario Framework In line with stakeholder feedback, the top-level scenario framework remains broadly unchanged compared to recent years. However, the Steady Progression scenario has been renamed as Falling Short to reinforce how this scenario does not meet the UK Net Zero target by 2050. All the scenarios meet the relevant security of supply standards across the different fuels in every year. Introduction N E T ZE R O C A RBO N Leading the Way reaches Net Zero in 2047 Overall end consumer demand reduces by over 40% by 2035 in Leading the Way Leading the Way has no unabated natural gas generation capacity after 2035 Levelised costs of wind and solar are much lower than unabated natural gas generation for projects commissioning in 2025 F E S 2 0 2 2 / E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y 0 8 F E S 2 0 2 2 / E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y 0 8 Significantly accelerating the transition to a decarbonised energy system can help to address security and affordability concerns at the same time as delivering Net Zero milestones. Regional focus on heat A ‘one-size fits all’ approach to decarbonisation of residential heat is not optimal due to differences in consumer preferences, availability of resources and proximity to energy infrastructure. Within a national strategy, delivery of the targeted solutions and investment required by consumers should take place at a more regional level to leverage local knowledge and improve affordability. Policy and delivery Key Message Demand side strategy The British Energy Security Strategy addresses long term strategic priorities by ensuring greater levels of low carbon energy supply. A corresponding demand side strategy that incentivises more flexible electricity consumption, long duration storage and early hydrogen uptake is also required to avoid significant volumes of renewable energy being wasted during periods of oversupply as well as to ensure capacity adequacy. Energy efficiency Improving energy efficiency is a no-regrets policy solution that can provide immediate benefits in terms of both affordability and energy security while also facilitating more enduring decarbonisation. A plan to roll out thermal insulation to buildings alongside associated financing is urgently needed to unlock these benefits. Key recommendations N E T ZE R O C A RBO N 84% of people said that they were concerned about climate change, with 41% saying they were “very concerned” 82% of people said they had given either a lot, or a fair amount, of thought to saving energy in the home In our scenarios, consumer engagement in smart EV charging ranges from 43% (FS) to 92% (LW) in 2035 As at the end of March 2022, only 45% of installed energy meters were smart and operating in smart mode FREQUENCY VOLTAGE D EM AN D F E S 2 0 2 2 / E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y 0 9 F E S 2 0 2 2 / E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y 0 9 Consumer behaviour is pivotal to decarbonisation – how we all react to market and policy changes, and embrace smart technology, will be vital to meeting Net Zero. Consumer and digitalisation Key Message Consumer information Consumers are willing to make changes to meet Net Zero but need to be reliably informed about both how they can help as well as the affordability benefits of low carbon solutions. Targeted campaigns, led by trusted bodies, are required to provide consumers with the information they need to decarbonise and embrace new technology. Key recommendations Digitalisation and innovation Even the most engaged consumers won’t manually adjust their demand in line with prices and so smart digital solutions will be required to do this for them automatically and seamlessly. To facilitate developments in smart technology and better understanding of regional trends, data must be made available to innovators while ensuring that appropriate consumer protection is maintained. Driving change Significant levels of demand side flexibility are required to operate the electricity system without unabated natural gas after 2035. Suppliers must be further supported to increase the availability of flexible time-of-use-tariffs so that consumers can respond to market signals and benefit from low prices at times of high renewable output. BEIS Public Attitudes Tracker, Spring 2022, UK Wind and solar generation currently make up 43% of GB energy supply and this rises to at least 66% across the scenarios by 2030 Annual transmission constraint costs have increased from £170m in 2010 to £1.3bn in 2022 and are expected to continue rising In Leading the Way, demand side flexibility reduces unmanaged peak demand by over 40% by 2035 Consumer Transformation and Leading the Way have more than 115 GWh of electricity storage in 2035 compared to less than 30 GWh today F E S 2 0 2 2 / E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y 1 0 F E S 2 0 2 2 / E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y 1 0 Reforming energy markets to improve price signals will help unlock the flexible solutions needed to integrate renewables efficiently. Market participation The energy market of the future must harness the vast potential of demand side flexibility to integrate renewables and ensure security of supply at least cost for all. Market changes must facilitate flexible tariffs, support innovation and reduce barriers to participation for new market entrants from the industrial and commercial sector or in the form of aggregated residential demand. Markets and flexibility Key Message Flexibility requirement Operating a future energy system with high levels of renewables and no unabated natural gas generation will require significantly more flexible capacity than we have today. Current market signals mean that flexible assets cannot contribute their full value to the system and may at times exacerbate network constraints - the impact of this will only increase in the future if changes are not made now. Locational signals ESO analysis shows that market reform is needed to provide the dynamic real-time locational signals required to optimise dispatch and siting decisions of flexible capacity on the whole energy system. Improving locational signals has the potential to deliver significant cost savings to consumers without any adverse impact on renewable targets. Key recommendations Across the scenarios, at least 31 GW of offshore wind is connected in 2030 with 51 GW in Leading the Way At least 15 TWh of electricity is curtailed in the Net Zero scenarios by 2030 There are over 40 GW of n