2022年全球水电现状报告：行业趋势与思考（英）-国际水电协会.pdf

| 1 2022 Hydropower Status Report Sector trends and insights2 | International Hydropower Association | 2022 Hydropower Status Report Contents Contents Foreword 5 Executive summary 6 Hydropower installed capacity in 2021 7 Where was capacity added in 2021? 9 Hydropower growth in context 10 Regional developments 12 2021: pumped storage hydropower in the spotlight 14 Regions in focus 18 North and Central America 20 South America 22 Europe 26 Africa 30 South and Central Asia 34 East Asia and Pacific 40 Installed capacity and generation 2021 46 | 1 The global certification label for sustainable hydropower The Hydropower Sustainability Standard is the global certification scheme that provides minimum sustainability expectations for hydropower projects, using up-to date, industry-leading guidance. Hydropower developers and operators can now gain international recognition for their environmental, social and governance performance by certifying their projects against the Standard. Certify your project now to: • Unlock green finance for your project • Enhance your social licence to operate • Align your project with sector leading environmental and social safeguards Find out more: hydropower.org/standard2 | International Hydropower Association | 2022 Hydropower Status Report We are the voice for sustainable hydropower Secure hydropower’s place in the energy transition by joining the International Hydropower Association today 10 0 + organisations IHA’s network of members 12 0 + countries where our members operate 450 gigawatts installed capacity of our members The International Hydropower Association (IHA) represents organisations and individuals committed to sustainable hydropower. Since IHA was founded in 1995, the hydropower sector has more than doubled in size from 625 GW to over 1,300 GW. IHA’s members operate around a third of current capacity at 450 GW. Our mission is to advance sustainable hydropower by building and sharing knowledge on its role in renewable energy systems, responsible freshwater management and climate change solutions. When delivered responsibly, hydropower offers clean, affordable and reliable electricity, while meeting our basic needs for water, irrigation, flood and drought control. As the world’s largest producer of renewable energy, hydropower ensures global decarbonisation goals remain within reach, while complementing variable renewables through its flexibility and storage. | 3 Find out more: hydropower.org/take-action © 2022 International Hydropower Association Limited. The “International Hydropower Association” name and logo are the property of International Hydropower Association Limited, a not-for-profit company limited by guarantee, incorporated in England (No. 08656160), the operator of the International Hydropower Association. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior permission of the publisher. Contact: communications@hydropower.org4 | International Hydropower Association | 2022 Hydropower Status Report WE CAN MAKE NET ZERO GOALS A REALITY WE CAN MAKE NET ZERO GOALS A REALITY Hydropower.org/WeCan #WithHydropower WE CAN WITH HYDROP WER | 5 As the world strives towards ambitious net zero emissions targets, the 2022 Hydropower Status Report is a stark wake-up call to governments around the world that we are falling short of the progress that is needed. But there are reasons to be positive. The Glasgow Climate Pact signed by all 197 parties at the closure of the United Change climate change conference, COP26, signified the first global agreement to phase down coal. The conversation must now address how we will fill the hole left by coal. Fortunately, we do not need to look very far, as the technology that we need to achieve net zero already exists. With the flexibility, security and grid services provided by sustainable hydropower, we can deploy wind and solar energy at scale and deliver reliable energy systems for future generations. We are moving in the right direction, but the pace needs to be stepped up. The last five years have seen an annual average of 22 GW of new hydropower capacity, which is perilously short of the 45 GW per year that is needed if we are to keep the global temperature rise below 1.5°C and reach net zero emissions by 2050. We can supercharge the progress firstly by accelerating the development of pumped storage hydropower around the world. Secondly, we need to look towards the immense untapped hydropower potential that exists in many regions of the world, particularly Asia and Africa. Finally, we need to make the most of our existing hydropower fleet by modernising it, as well as integrating hydropower facilities into non-power water infrastructure wherever suitable. Foreword The sustainable hydropower community is ready to deliver. We are working with a coalition of stakeholders all over the world to ensure that any new development is delivered responsibly, and delivers net positive benefits to society and the environment. This message is emphasised in the historic San José Declaration on Sustainable Hydropower, launched in September 2021 at the conclusion of the World Hydropower Congress following months of public consultation. The Declaration is clear that “going forward, the only acceptable hydropower is sustainable hydropower” . These are not just words. The Declaration is reinforced by the Hydropower Sustainability Standard, which is the first ever sustainability standard in the renewable energy sector. Also launched in September 2021, and governed by a multistakeholder body, the Standard enables responsible hydropower developers to certify their projects as sustainable. So, we have the technology to achieve net zero and the knowledge to deliver it sustainably. All that’s needed is the political will to make it happen. We can, with hydropower. Roger Gill IHA President Eddie Rich IHA CEO | 56 | International Hydropower Association | 2022 Hydropower Status Report The 2022 Hydropower Status Report, now in its ninth edition, is published while both climate change and energy security are at the forefront of global discourse. At COP26 (the United Nations climate change conference) in Glasgow in November 2021, welcome progress was made on some of the key climate change issues. Alongside headline deals on deforestation and methane emissions, important commitments were made by many countries, international financial institutions and banks to phase down coal and its financing. Filling the hole left by coal will be a major task over the coming decade. Hydropower, with its ability to provide both flexible and reliable power, is ideally placed to deliver. The conflict in Ukraine is a human tragedy with profound global consequences. The impact on fossil fuel prices is having a major impact on the cost of living around the world. It has served to demonstrate how vulnerable the world economy is in relying on sources of energy that are restricted to just a few key regions. In generating around 16 per cent of the world’s electricity, hydropower plays a key role providing low-carbon electricity at scale and free from many of the energy security concerns that plague fossil fuels. We know that to keep climate change below 2°C, or the more challenging 1.5°C net zero target, we will need to see a huge increase in low-carbon electricity generation. International agencies such as the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have consistently modelled a significant increase in the amount of hydropower needed in such energy systems. Executive summary Electricity generated from hydropower in 2021 Hydropower installed capacity reached in 2021 Pumped storage installed capacity reached in 2021 Pumped storage capacity added in 2021 decrease from 2020 on 2020 on 2020 up on added in 2020 Capacity added in 2021, including pumped storage up on -2.7% +1.9% +3.3% 1.5GW 21GW added in 2020 4,252 TWh 1,360 GW 26 GW 165 GW 4.7 GW 6 | International Hydropower Association | 2022 Hydropower Status Report To achieve a 2°C target, we need to see around 850 GW of additional hydropower capacity added by 2050, while to achieve a 1.5°C target we will need at least 1,200 GW more. Unfortunately, this is not capacity that can be easily substituted. Other low-carbon sources will, under the international agencies’ models, be pushed to their limit. Landmark moments for sustainable hydropower development For hydropower to play its role in the clean energy transition it is vital that it is developed sustainably. In 2021, leading hydropower companies and international organisations declared their support for a new sustainability certification scheme for hydropower – the Hydropower Sustainability Standard. Launched in September 2021 at the World Hydropower Congress, the Standard will help to ensure that hydropower projects across the world are recognised and certified for their environmental, social and governance performance. The San José Declaration on Sustainable Hydropower, issued on 24 September 2021 at the conclusion of the Congress, outlines a vision for hydropower’s contribution to meeting global climate and development goals. At the heart of the Declaration is a recognition that “sustainable hydropower is a clean, green, modern and affordable solution to climate change” . It says that “going forward, the only acceptable hydropower is sustainable hydropower” . | 7 Hydropower installed capacity (GW) of top 20 hydropower producers and the rest of the world, including pumped storage (2021) Hydropower installed capacity in 2021 Rest of world 268.1 China 391 Brazil 109.4 United States 101.9 Canada 82.3 Russia 55.7 India 51.4 Japan 49.6 Norway 33.4 Turkey 31.5 France 25.5 Italy 22.6 Spain 20.4 Vietnam 17.3 Switzerland 16.8 Sweden 16.5 Venezuela 15.4 Austria 14.7 Mexico 12.6 Iran 12.2 Colombia 11.9 1 ,360GW total hydropower installed capacity in 2021 East Asia and Pacic South America South and Central Asia Africa North and Central America Europe 21,897 1,961 1,156 182 172 New hydropower installed capacity by region in 2021 (MW)8 | International Hydropower Association | 2022 Hydropower Status Report Africa 181 South America 33 North and Central America 1, 156 South and Central Asia 1,960 East Asia and Pacic 21,897 Europe 1,087 8 | International Hydropower Association | 2022 Hydropower Status Report Only China is keeping pace with net zero pathway for hydropower We are falling short of the development needed to make net zero goals a reality. We need to build around 30 GW a year to keep on track to the 2°C target, and around 45 GW for the more ambitious net zero 1.5°C target. Over the last five years growth has averaged only 22 GW per year, and more than half of this has been in China. We estimate that there is around 132 GW of hydropower under construction around the world, with just under 430 GW in various stages of pre-construction development. But it is by no means clear that all of this will be built, and even if it is, it would still leave a 300 GW+ gap in the provision of flexible low-carbon generation as coal and gas are taken offline. We run the risk of having to choose between blackouts or carbon emissions, despite a huge amount of remaining potential that can be developed sustainably and cost-effectively. Hydropower development highlights last year Hydropower generated around 4,250 terawatt hours (TWh) of clean electricity worldwide in 2021, down from the record of 4,370 TWh in 2020. Lower than average rainfall in many regions contributed to this downturn in generation. Hydropower’s generation is equivalent to around one and a half times the entire electricity consumption of the European Union, reflecting hydropower’s continued significant contribution to low-carbon generation globally. Global hydropower installed capacity reached 1,360 gigawatts (GW) in 2021. This represents year-on-year growth of 1.9 per cent, higher than 2020, but still below the more than 2 per cent needed to enable hydropower’s essential contribution to tackling climate change. During 2021, 26 GW of new hydropower capacity was put into operation, up on 2020’s 21 GW. Most of this growth came from China, which saw nearly 21 GW of new capacity come online. Pumped storage hydropower totalled 4.7 GW of the new additions in capacity, up on the 1.5 GW added in 2020. Again, most of this was in China (4.5 GW), including 600 MW of capacity at the Fengning pumped storage facility, which will be the largest in the world at 3,600 MW once it is complete in 2023. Major additions in 2021 included: the 824 MW Muskrat Falls Hydroelectric Generating Station, part of the Lower Churchill Project in Canada; the remaining 600 MW of capacity at the 1,272 MW Nam Ou plant in Laos; Nepal’s 456 MW Upper Tamakoshi project; units 3 and 4 of Kameng Hydropower Station in India, adding 300 MW; and a 324 MW unit added at the Dnesiter pumped storage plant in Ukraine, raising the plant’s installed capacity to 1,296 MW. In China, the first six 1,000 MW turbines at the giant Baihetan hydropower plant started generating in 2021. Once complete, the 16,000 MW facility will be the world’s second largest. Other major additions in China included 3,400 MW at Wudongde, 2,500 MW at Lianghekou, and 1,500 MW brought into operation at Yangfanggou. Hydropower capacity by region in 2021 (GW) | 9 Where was capacity added in 2021? No new additions 199 MW and below 200 MW to 1,999 MW 2,000 MW to 9,999 MW 10,000 MW and over Key Ranking Country Capacity added (MW) 1 China 20,840 2 Canada 924 3 India 803 4 Nepal 684 5 Laos 600 6 Turkey 513 7 Indonesia 481 8 Norway 396 9 Viet Nam 222 10 Brazil 175 11 USA 172 12 Russia 167 13 Austria 150 Ranking Country Capacity added (MW) 14 Zambia 150 15 Kazakhstan 129 16 Argentina 115 17 Philippines 85 18 Uzbekistan 76 19 Tajikistan 49 20 Costa Rica 48 21 South Korea 35 22 Sri Lanka 35 23 Ecuador 31 24 Uganda 24 25 Spain 16 26 Honduras 12 Ranking Country Capacity added (MW) 27 Switzerland 12 28 Georgia 10 29 Azerbaijan 8 30 Burundi 8 31 Dominican Republic 8 32 Colombia 4 33 Thailand 3 34 Cambodia 2 35 Mexico 2 36 Taiwan 2 37 Bolivia 1 38 Jamaica 110 | International Hydropower Association | 2022 Hydropower Status Report Laos Viet Nam Brazil Indonesia China Turkey Norway India Nepal Canada 20,840 924 803 684 600 513 481 396 222 175 Where was capacity added in 2021? China remains the world leader in respect to total hydropower installed capacity with over 390 GW, followed by Brazil (109 GW), the USA (102 GW) and Canada (82 GW). Russia, India and Japan also have around 50 GW or more. 38 countries added hydropower capacity in 2021 (including capacity added through modernisation), slightly up on the 35 countries that added capacity in 2020. The total amount of new capacity added, however, increased from 21 GW to 26 GW, led by China with 20.8 GW. No other country added more than 1 GW in 2021. Canada (924 MW), India (803 MW), Nepal (684 MW), Lao