英国与能源转型：如何引领潮流（英）-Cornwall Insight .pdf

The UK and the energy transition Leading the way? May 2022 Insight Paper2 The UK and the energy transition Foreword Executive summary Chapter 1: The UK and the energy transition 1.1. Areas of competitive advantage 1.2. Key challenges Chapter 2: Solar PV 2.1. A resurgent market? 2.2. The evolution of routes to market 2.3. Is co-location set for the mainstream? Chapter 3: Onshore wind 3.1. A bumpy road? 3.2. Planning problems 3.3. Making way for onshore wind Chapter 4: Offshore wind 4.1. A success story 4.2. Ambitious targets, enduring challenges 4.3. Realising the potential Chapter 5: Hydrogen and CCUS 5.1. A nascent and rapidly evolving market 5.2. Uncertainty clouds investment decisions 5.3. Exploiting first mover advantage Chapter 6: Leading the way About Womble Bond Dickinson About Cornwall Insight Acknowledgements Contents 3 4 7 12 14 17 23 27 30 32 333 The UK and the energy transition Foreword Richard Cockburn Partner, Head of Energy Womble Bond Dickinson The energy landscape is ever-shifting and geopolitical events have shone a particular spotlight on the UK’s energy system. The age-old energy trilemma is in very sharp focus as the UK looks to decarbonise its energy sources, whilst ensuring security of supply and affordability of energy use. To drive industry conversation and to help our clients and other key stakeholders to understand better how well the UK is performing in its energy transition, we commissioned this report from Cornwall Insight. Our aim was to bring global energy leaders together to debate the challenges and opportunities facing the UK energy sector. The report offers global context, analysis of different energy markets and expert insights which shine a light on the UK’s progress in the energy transition. Throughout the research period for this report, new variables continued to be thrown into the mix – the impact of the invasion of Ukraine, gas supply concerns and new legislation and political strategies were just some of the developments which are typical of the pace at which the energy landscape changes. This report draws on lessons from around the globe and it becomes increasingly clear that the journey to net zero must be a collaborative one. The UK is well placed to play a key role in global efforts to reduce carbon emissions over the coming decades. The UK is a world leader in areas such as offshore wind, and it is now – after years of delay – forging ahead in carbon capture and storage and hydrogen, but it can still learn much from countries worldwide as the energy transition accelerates.4 The UK and the energy transition The United Kingdom is well placed to play a key role in global efforts to dramatically reduce carbon emissions over the coming decades. An urgent need to decarbonise its economy while ensuring security of supply is pushing the UK to develop domestic energy sources in a way that is both environmentally sustainable and socially equitable. While the country has well-founded ambitions to become a leader in specific technologies, such as offshore wind, nuclear and hydrogen, there is still a clear requirement to strengthen supply chains and address the uncertainties of a rapidly changing market for renewables. In this report, we will assess the main opportunities and challenges facing the UK when it comes to major low carbon technologies, such as solar photovoltaic (PV), onshore and offshore wind, and hydrogen 1 . Some of the key findings are summarised here: Net zero and energy security needs are set to turbo-charge UK renewables • Over the past five years, the UK Government has significantly increased its decarbonisation efforts. The UK has the ambition and potential to become a global leader, with national businesses taking a key role in global supply chains of renewable technologies. • The considerable impact of international tensions on the UK’s gas and electricity wholesale prices – and thus on consumer bills – shows that energy dependence is fraught with risk. Hence, the reduction of energy dependence is now clearly becoming a policy priority. • This was reflected in the publication of the Energy Security Strategy in April 2022, which set out policy and increased ambitions aimed at ensuring an “acceleration in energy independence” 2 . • A key feature of the Energy Security Strategy was policy backing for nuclear, offshore wind and low carbon hydrogen. These technologies are expected to be critical in the UK’s journey towards energy independence. • The UK can rely on its strong reputation as a friendly environment for energy and infrastructure investment, thanks to its robust rule of law and the transparency of its legal system. Executive summary Contracts for Difference (CfDs) will continue to play a key role in the UK’s renewable roll-out. However, the market which CfDs overlay is uncertain, so the role of this regime may need to evolve in the coming years. • Thanks to the CfD regime, the UK can boast a very effective scheme to support renewable sources, as highlighted by the success story of offshore wind. This support scheme is heavily reliant on market forces and less costly to the public purse than alternative approaches used in Europe. • With CfD auction rounds becoming annual, the confidence of global and domestic investors and developers has been further boosted by the expectation of a healthy pipeline of projects across different technologies. • The Energy Security Strategy proposes to consult on changes to the 2024 CfD auction to incentivise renewables while minimising whole-system costs. This adds uncertainty to the CfD scheme as the market underlying the scheme is likely to be transformed. • Similarly, the Strategy saw the expansion of the UK Government’s Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) which may impact those considering financing projects. High-level options may be introduced by the Review including locational marginal pricing which would result in the market being turned on its head. • These potential market developments could contribute to a sense of uncertainty around wholesale, networks and balancing market frameworks until we get to the other side of the initiatives in these areas. • As we move to a new phase of renewable development, driven by CfDs as well as merchant financing models, it is essential that planning processes are streamlined, and grid constraints are properly tackled. 1 Please note that the content of this report does not reflect analysis of releases and market updates which occurred after 13 April 2022, as the cut off time for publication finalisation pre-dated them. 2 Major acceleration of homegrown power in Britain’s plan for greater energy independence - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk).5 The UK and the energy transition The UK needs stronger domestic supply chains to underpin net zero ambitions and boost economic growth • The country has seen a dramatic ramp-up of renewables, however this has not yet translated in the development of a strong domestic manufacturing supply chain. • We can no longer bank on learning rates lowering global supply chain prices. This is a big change from the last decade and, when combined with global supply chain pressures due to rising commodity prices and increasing demand, it is evident that supply chains are due to suffer upward cost pressure across the 2020s. • It is essential that a minimum level of equipment and components are manufactured locally (boosting so called “local content requirements”) to ensure the development of the UK’s sustainable energy infrastructure supply chains, to build up industries and workforce within both established and less established technologies. The UK has the potential to become a global leader in emerging technologies such as floating offshore wind • While the UK has been historically successful in directing investment to relatively established technologies, it has struggled to develop less mature technologies. • Floating offshore wind is a technology which is about to take off in the UK. It is key that the country leverages the significant expertise and know-how that it acquired by developing utility-scale fixed offshore wind over the last decade. • The Energy Security Strategy will help to pave the way for the technology with an aim to bring forward up to 5GW of floating offshore wind by 2030. • Investors and developers are becoming increasingly comfortable with offshore wind technologies, and therefore floating wind is already set to become the UK’s next success story. • An important step now is improving infrastructure and policy around grid connection to accommodate for the roll-out of these technologies. 5 Leading the way? The UK and the energy transition6 The UK and the energy transition Policy to engage communities is essential for the future roll-out of land-intensive renewable technologies, such as onshore wind and solar • Issues around community buy-in are often a key barrier for the development of solar and onshore wind projects. • Co-location, agri-renewables and repowering will all play important roles in making better use of land available in the UK. • The UK Government and devolved administrations can play a role in introducing policy and schemes which encourage a platform for dialogue between developers and local communities. The UK is in a strong position to gain first mover advantage in nascent technologies, such as low carbon hydrogen and carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS), with industrial clusters emerging as production and consumption hubs • When it comes to low carbon hydrogen, the UK is rapidly developing a vibrant business ecosystem. Thanks to the publication of the Hydrogen Strategy in 2021, the UK is already catching up with its global competitors 3 . • The Energy Security Strategy raises the UK’s ambition for low carbon hydrogen capacity to 10GW by 2030, with at least half of this to come from electrolytic-enabled, or ‘green’, hydrogen. • The UK Government recently concluded its consultation on low carbon hydrogen business models. While a critical step in creating clarity for the market going forward, it is now key that these models are finalised and that final investment decisions are reached as soon as possible. • The UK’s industrial clusters are set to become leading hubs for the production and consumption of hydrogen as well as for the full-chain development of CCUS. However, industries and investors urgently need clarity on business models, so that they can make relevant investment decisions. • The co-location of solar and wind assets with hydrogen and other storage technologies presents considerable opportunities, by enhancing the economics of projects, optimising land consumption, and contributing to the stability of the grid. • The UK needs to fully exploit first mover advantage in the creation of its own hydrogen and CCUS economy. To this end, the oil and gas industry has a considerable role to play in the energy transition, thanks to its resources, assets, and know-how. Partnerships across different industries will be essential for decarbonising the economy at pace and scale. 3 For more information, see Cornwall Insight’s Low carbon Hydrogen Index which ranks the emerging low carbon hydrogen players, including the UK, in terms of their policy and financing for developing low carbon hydrogen supply chains.7 The UK and the energy transition As the world embarks on the colossal effort to reduce carbon emissions and turn the tide of climate change, the United Kingdom is well placed to take a leading role. The recent COP26 summit, hosted by the UK in November 2021, offered an ideal platform for the country to demonstrate this leadership, building on the commitments reached during the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. The UK Government aimed to place national business centre stage at the conference, calling on corporations to “[set] out clear pathways to get to net zero” and to “help start a green business revolution” 4 . The power generation sector is the largest emission driver in the global economy 5 . In many countries, there has been rapid change in recent years with the development of renewable energy sources and accompanying technology for storage, as well as increased interconnection between countries. This progress is going to need to escalate in the future as we approach global net zero target dates. Over the last five years, the UK Government has ramped up its decarbonisation of power generation (see Figure 1). In June 2019, the UK was the first large economy to make the target to reach net zero by 2050 legally binding 6 . The Scottish Government took a further step to expedite the achievement of this target by moving the deadline for zero-emissions to 2045 in Scotland 7 . The Johnson Government has identified net zero as a pillar in its COVID-19 economic recovery strategy, with a core narrative of “Build Back Better” and a stated commitment to be at the ‘forefront of tackling climate change’ 8 . A similar emphasis on net zero is present in the UK Government’s 2022 Energy Security Strategy, published in response to recent international tensions and related volatile wholesale gas prices. The Strategy includes increased targets for the development of solar, wind, hydrogen and nuclear. While the Strategy envisages a role for the domestic production of fossil fuels, there is a clear recognition that renewables are the primary route to ensuring the UK’s security of supply is sustainable in the long-term. Chapter 1: The UK and the energy transition Net zero commitments The global transition to net zero is a core commitment in the Paris Agreement— a legally binding international treaty on climate change — adopted by 196 parties at COP21 in 2015. Reaching net zero entails reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to a point at which the amount generated is no more than the amount removed. The aspired outcome of this reduction in GHG emissions is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has calculated that in order to achieve this, net zero must be achieved by 2050. The UK Government adopted this target and made it legally binding. Scotland has been a world leading jurisdiction in setting its target date for net zero at 2045. Figure 1: Capacity installed per technology (MW) UK 2011-2020 Source: Cornwall Insight 4 COP26 sees UK businesses lead the world in climate change commitments - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). 5 Emissions by sector – Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy: Overview – Analysis - IEA. 6 UK becomes first major economy to pass net zero emissions law - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). 7 Climate change - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). 8 Build Back Better: our plan for growth (HTML) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk).8 The UK and the energy transition Concerns around energy security and international tensions have also brought to the fore issues related to energy equity in the UK’s net zero transition. The price spikes experienced a