2022年全球能源转型指数报告（英）-世界经济论坛.pdf

Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2022 Edition INSIGHT REPORT MAY 2022 In collaboration with AccentureContents Foreword Executive summary 1 The energy transition under pressure 1.1 Economic development and growth 1.2 Energy security and access 1.3 Environmental sustainability 1.4 Transition readiness enablers 2 Unlocking the net-zero transformation of industries 2.1 No net zero by 2050 without industries 2.2 Net-zero choke points: A call for multistakeholder collaboration 2.3 Clearing the path to net zero with “next generation” partnerships 2.4 Net-zero collaboration between customers and suppliers 2.5 Net-zero collaboration between industry and cross-industry peers 2.6 Net-zero collaboration between wider ecosystem stakeholders 3 Conclusion Appendix Contributors Endnotes 3 4 6 9 12 16 19 23 24 29 33 35 38 41 43 44 45 46 Images: Getty Images, Unsplash, Pexels Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders. © 2022 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2022 Edition 2Foreword The Energy Transition Index (ETI) has benchmarked the progress of countries’ energy transition for a decade on the three dimensions of the energy triangle – economic development and growth, energy security and access, and environmental sustainability – and on the enabling environment for transition. In view of the current volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, however, a trend analysis from historical energy data can currently provide only limited insights. Hence, instead of the annual country energy transition benchmarking report, this special 2022 edition builds on the ETI trends observed in recent years to provide a perspective on the current challenges affecting the transition, and highlights priorities to supercharge it. The urgency for transformative measures to mitigate climate change has intensified. The latest assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasize the need for global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to peak by 2025 and for emissions to decline rapidly thereafter. However, a series of systemic shocks over the past three years and their implications on the energy system highlight the challenges in pursuing long-term targets while responding to short-term emergencies. The ETI framework underscores the need to help advance energy affordability, security and access, and sustainability. The current environment poses simultaneous constraints on these three fronts. Many countries have demonstrated resilience to the pandemic and exceptional economic recovery. However, the faster-than-expected rebound coupled with low investments in parts of the energy system have put stress on the energy supply, leading to very high energy prices and severely impacting households and businesses. Supply-demand imbalances can recur through the transition as energy systems reconfigure, yet the transition cannot progress at pace if it leads to expensive energy or exacerbates inequalities. The war in Ukraine has led many countries to rethink their energy security paradigm and what it means for their energy transition. A review of the best performing countries in terms of energy security in the past ETI editions reveals the benefits of dual diversification: energy mix diversification and fuel import diversification. The war has forced several countries to consider the trade-offs between energy security and sustainability to secure energy supply in the short term. However, in the long term, we expect the energy transition will offer win-win opportunities, aligning security and sustainability imperatives through investments in renewables and other clean energy sources, as well as demand-side measures like energy efficiency. We believe this is the time for governments, companies and consumers to intensify efforts to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. Governments can invest in domestic decarbonized energy systems that will secure affordable and reliable energy, and companies have opportunities to adopt low-carbon technologies and energy- efficient processes. The decrease in GHG emissions observed during the pandemic due to the reduction in energy demand demonstrates the opportunities offered by demand management. Considering the critical role of energy-intensive industries in achieving demand-side emission reductions, this report includes a focus on the energy transition within the industrial sector. As the largest contributor of anthropogenic emissions, industries are regarded as the last frontier of decarbonization. We examine the multiple choke points that industrial firms encounter on their journey to net zero, and show how a new generation of collaboration models, coupled with new levels of ambition at the industry, country and global levels can help these companies break through their bottlenecks and accelerate the transition. There are glimmers of hope, but also caveats. A few countries, for example, are linking COVID-19 recovery packages with enhanced sustainability solutions to “build back better”. But many are not. And several large investment agendas are not yet fully approved. Also, we welcome the additional commitments made at COP26 at the end of 2021. However, action has fallen short in several key areas that will need to be addressed in the future. Overall, we remain cautiously optimistic. But success will depend on countries carefully striking the balance between energy affordability, availability and sustainability, and further strengthening their commitment to climate action. Roberto Bocca Head of Shaping the Future of Energy, Materials and Infrastructure, World Economic Forum Muqsit Ashraf Senior Managing Director and Lead, Energy Industry Sector, Accenture Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2022 Edition May 2022 Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2022 Edition 3Executive summary 1. The effects of macroeconomic turbulence and recent geopolitical developments on the energy system highlight the complexities and trade-offs inherent in the energy transition, calling for a balanced approach that delivers on the imperatives of sustainability, energy affordability, and energy security and access – in essence driving a resilient energy transition. The pandemic, the steep economic rebound and the war in Ukraine have successively disrupted energy markets, causing significant consequences for people, companies and economies around the world. The conjunction of diverse adverse events has created a perfect storm, creating headwinds on all three imperatives of the energy triangle: economic development and growth, energy security and access, and environmental sustainability. This situation demonstrates that the energy transition is not immune to the impacts of major environmental, economic and geopolitical events, and that the trade-offs between energy affordability, security and sustainability exist and need to be carefully considered. Such an approach is required to establish a resilient energy transition capable of achieving long-term climate ambitions, regardless of the challenges that might impact the journey. 2. Progress on the economic development and growth dimension of the energy transition has been slow over the past decade. Ensuring affordable access to energy for households and businesses is essential for economic growth and a just transition. As the energy system reconfigures to a low- carbon future, temporary supply-demand imbalances can be a recurring phenomenon, with consequences for households and businesses, not only in terms of energy prices but also of the cost of living (e.g. food, housing, transportation) and commodities. The effects of energy price volatilities tend to be more severe for vulnerable consumers and small businesses. Measures to address these concerns will rest on a robust framework of data transparency to determine the magnitude and prevalence of the challenge at the national and local levels, define mechanisms to effectively target vulnerable consumers for financial transfers, and design support measures in a manner that does not reduce incentives for efficient consumption. 3. The diversification of the energy mix with a range of low-carbon energy sources can help strengthen energy security. Countries can engage in dual diversification: diversifying their fuel import partners in the short term and their energy mix in the long term. A look at over 10 years of energy security analyses through the Energy Transition Index shows that the dual diversification of fuel import partners and of the domestic energy mix generates important benefits. Renewable sources are mature and available for accelerated deployment, allowing countries to build more diversified, reliable and sustainable energy systems. Other low- emission solutions, such as clean hydrogen and nuclear energy in those countries that accept such programmes, may appear as pathways to increase energy independence. Low-carbon energy systems can raise new energy security concerns, for example from disruptions in the supply of transition materials or less flexibility in the power system, which must be mitigated in advance. 4. Current energy market volatility and security constraints provide an opportunity to supercharge the transition by increasing clean energy investments at record pace and transforming consumers’ energy consumption habits. Renewable energy capacity installations set a record in 2021 with 290 gigawatts (GW) 1 of new wind and solar capacity added worldwide, yet this remains well below the 960 GW needed annually by 2030 to meet the 2050 net-zero target, 2 and the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns clean energy investments would have to triple by 2030. 3 Today, as the risks of high fossil fuel prices and uncertainties about the global energy supply outlook increase, countries can seize the opportunity to strengthen their commitments to clean energy investments. Additionally, the demand-side changes will be as critical as the supply-side transformation to achieve the energy transition objectives in the required time frame. The IEA indicates that “energy efficiency improvement will drive more than 40% of the reduction of energy-related GHG emissions over the next 20 years”. 4 Navigating the energy transition through a turbulent phase requires a balanced approach. Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2022 Edition 45. Addressing emissions from energy-intensive industries is essential to improve energy efficiency. Industrial activity generates more than 30% of anthropogenic emissions, 5 yet many industries face considerable challenges to decarbonize. Going forward, “clean demand” signals could be a turning point to accelerate “clean supply”. With global demand for industrial products projected to grow significantly by 2050, the decarbonization of industries is fundamental to the global energy transition. Just five industries (cement and concrete, iron and steel, oil and gas, chemicals, and coal mining) together are responsible for 80% of industrial emissions. 6 However, industrial firms face complex challenges that act as choke points. Today, technology, financing and policies are at the forefront of companies’ and governments’ net-zero strategies to decarbonize the supply side. But demand-side initiatives, such as the First Movers Coalition, 7 designed to create a strong “clean demand” pull (e.g. visibility on offtake volumes, acceptance of green premiums, etc.) are still isolated. They must be rapidly replicated to incentivize investments in low- emission technologies and production assets. 6. The “next generation” of ambitious multistakeholder collaborations between suppliers and customers, between industry and cross-industry peers, and between the wider industrial ecosystem of stakeholders can overcome decarbonization choke points and accelerate the industrial transformation towards net zero. The remedies to industry choke points are seldom found within a single firm or even industry. New forms of collaboration at the sector, country and global levels are needed. Such multistakeholder partnerships reflect a heightened level of ambition, a clear focus on emission reduction and fresh areas of joint action. Three archetypal partnerships have emerged: – Collaboration between customers and suppliers (e.g. low-emission product offtake agreements, circular supply networks, value chain decarbonization projects, etc.) – Collaboration between industry and cross- industry peers (e.g. CO 2 infrastructure, low- carbon manufacturing plants, knowledge sharing for decarbonization, etc.) – Collaboration between the wider ecosystem of stakeholders, such as governments, policy-makers, financiers, researchers and non-governmental organizations (e.g. emission measurement standards, integrated research for low-carbon technologies, public-private partnerships, etc.). Moving the industrial energy transition forward at the required pace will entail replicating, scaling and improving these models of collaboration. 7. The window of opportunity to prevent the worst consequences of climate change is closing fast. It is essential to make the energy transition robust by building the necessary enablers that will keep the transition going if the economic and energy security context deteriorates. With the world in the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s, it is critically important to speed up action to put mankind on the path to net-zero emissions while addressing energy security needs. Four key actions can help give impetus and steady long-term momentum to the energy transition and make it more likely to withstand economic disruptions: – Anchoring climate commitments in legally binding frameworks that can endure political cycles and enforce the long-term implementation of national transition objectives – Taking and holding long-term decisions with regard to the decarbonization of the national energy system structure (energy mix, power generation mix, energy efficiency, fossil fuel dependency) – Building an attractive investment landscape for private capital, both foreign and domestic, to finance energy transition projects (policy and legal frameworks, currency and institutional stability, infrastructure quality, technology availability) – Promoting consumer participation (awareness of climate change and carbon footprints, individual responsibility for action, incentives for consumer behavioural change) and building the loca