2022年东南亚能源展望（英）-IEA.pdf

Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 10 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t 2020e = estimated values for 2020. 5 10 15 20 25 30 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 EJ Total primary energy supply by fuel Renewables Traditional use of biomass Natural gas Oil Coal 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Total primary energy supply by country Lao PDR Brunei Cambodia Myanmar Singapore Philippines Malaysia Viet Nam Thailand Indonesia e Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 PAGE | 6 Key findings Southeast Asia’s policy choices will have huge implications for its future energy mix Energy demand trends in Southeast Asia by scenario, 2020-2050 IEA. All rights reserved. 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 2020 2030 2040 2050 m b /d STEPS SDS Oil demand 100 200 300 400 2020 2030 2040 2050 b cm Natural gas demand 150 300 450 600 2020 2030 2040 2050 m t ce Coal demand 700 1 400 2 100 2 800 2020 2030 2040 2050 TW h Renewables in power Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 PAGE | 7 Key findings With today’s policies, energy demand, fossil fuel imports and emissions are set to increase; the region would also fall short on its target to provide access to clean cooking for all by 2030 Key energy indicators in Southeast Asia in the Stated Policies and Sustainable Development scenarios, 2020-2050 IEA. All rights reserved. Note: Fossil fuel imports are net imports of coal, oil and natural gas. 0.0 1.5 3.0 2020 2030 2050 STEPS SDS CO 2 emissions Gt C O 2 0 15 30 2020 2030 2050 EJ Fossil fuel net imports 0% 50% 100% 2020 2030 2050 Share of population with access to clean cooking 30 60 2020 2030 2050 EJ Primary energy demand Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 PAGE | 8 Key findings Governments can introduce policies and measures to boost energy security and affordability, reduce emissions and ensure energy access for all Energy demand in Southeast Asia has increased on average by around 3% a year over the past two decades, and this trend continues to 2030 under today’s policy settings in the STEPS. Southeast Asian countries are in different stages of their development, but almost all of their economies have more than doubled in size since 2000. The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted these trends but economic growth is set to return: the region’s economy expands in all our scenarios by 5% a year on average until 2030 before slowing to an average of 3% between 2030 and 2050. Three-quarters of the increase in energy demand to 2030 in the STEPS is met by fossil fuels, leading to a near 35% increase in CO 2 emissions. Energy access has been improving in Southeast Asia in recent years: around 95% of households today have electricity and 70% have clean cooking solutions such as liquefied petroleum gas and improved cook stoves. However, these shares remain very low in Cambodia and Myanmar, and the recent surge in commodity prices threatens to set back progress. In the STEPS, universal access to electricity is achieved around 2030, but even by 2050, more than 100 million people in the region do not have access to clean cooking. The region also sees a steady worsening in its energy trade balance as fossil fuel demand outpaces local production. Governments across Southeast Asia have set out long-term plans for a more secure and sustainable future. For example, six Southeast Asian countries have already announced net zero emissions and carbon neutrality targets. The SDS maps out a way to achieve these goals in full, and also sees enhanced efforts to achieve universal access to energy in 2030. Fossil fuel subsidies are phased out, efficiency improvements temper the growth in overall demand, and there are concerted efforts to boost clean energy technology deployment in power generation and end-use sectors. For example, in the SDS, 21 GW of renewable capacity are added on average each year to 2030 (triple the level of recent years) and nearly 25% of the cars sold in the region by 2030 are electric. These efforts also help reduce the region’s fossil fuel import bill. Delivering electricity and clean cooking access to all by 2030 is achieved with an investment of USD 2.8 billion a year (about 2% of average annual energy sector investment in the region to 2030). Each country has its own pathway, and the range and diversity of countries and situations in Southeast Asia mean that delivering on these interrelated goals will be a challenge. Intraregional co- operation and international support will be critical, especially to boost innovation and support the development of related infrastructure. Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 PAGE | 9 Key findings The region’s fuel import needs and energy security vulnerabilities will rise sharply in the decades to come without a strong effort to accelerate transitions Crude oil and natural gas trade to Southeast Asia by scenario and origin (for STEPS), 2020-2050 IEA. All rights reserved. 2 4 6 8 2020 2030 2050 m i l l i on bar r el s per day Crude oil 40 80 120 160 2020 2030 2050 b illio n c u b ic m et r es Natural gas Total SDS Middle East Africa North America Central and South America Russia Australia Other STEPS (by origin) Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 PAGE | 10 Key findings Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlights the importance of mechanisms to safeguard the region’s security of supply, alongside policies to reduce energy security risks over time Seaborne crude oil trade to Southeast Asia Oil stockpiles required by companies and refineries from around the world, 2020 operating in Southeast Asia IEA. All rights reserved. Note: “Mandatory operational oil stockpiles” in the table are as of March 2019 and exclude LPG. Source: IEA analysis; IEEJ (2020). OtherTotal 2.6 mb/d Country Mandatory operational oil stockpiles Brunei 31 days for refineries Cambodia 30 days for companies importing oil Indonesia 14 days (crude oil) and 23 days (oil products) by the national oil company Lao PDR 21 days for companies importing oil and 10 days for distributers Malaysia 30 days by the national oil company Myanmar 6 days for oil companies Philippines 30 days for refineries (crude) and 15 days (oil products) for companies importing oil Singapore 90 days (oil products) for power companies Thailand 21.5 days (oil crude) and 3.5 days (oil products) for refineries and traders Viet Nam 10 days (oil crude) and 40 days (oil products) for oil companies Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 PAGE | 11 Key findings Well-managed energy transitions will shield Southeast Asia from the impacts of volatile international markets, but energy security during transitions does not come for free Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had profound consequences for energy markets, leading to high and volatile prices for fossil fuels and greater near-term competition for non-Russian supplies. The market turbulence has shone a spotlight on the energy security vulnerabilities of Southeast Asian countries and their mechanisms in place to weather supply disruptions. The region has been an aggregate oil importer since the mid-1990s and high oil prices put significant strains on consumers and the broader economy. In 2020, the region imported around 2.6 mb/d of oil (Thailand and the Philippines accounted for 40% of total oil imports to the region), mainly from the Middle East and Africa. In the STEPS, oil imports continue to rise to 4.6 mb/d in 2030 and 6.2 mb/d in 2050. Based on today’s policies, the region becomes a net natural gas importer by 2025, importing more than 130 bcm per year by 2050. However, the 2021 price increases – further accentuated by the invasion of Ukraine – may have long-term repercussions for the role of natural gas in the region, by changing perceptions on affordability and policy attitudes towards investments in gas import infrastructure. Accelerating clean energy transitions is the key way to reduce today’s energy security vulnerabilities. In the SDS, for example, both oil and gas imports in 2050 are 50% lower than in the STEPS. This occurs because of the enhanced efficiency measures that are deployed in the SDS. Targeted investments in energy security remain critical throughout energy transitions. Electricity demand rises rapidly in all our scenarios, as does output from variable renewables (wind and solar PV). Ensuring electricity security under these circumstances requires large-scale investments in networks, demand side management, digitalisation, enhanced cyber resilience as well as inter-regional planning. Even as the region takes policy steps to move away from oil, oil stockpiles remain an important mechanism to protect against supply disruptions. There are a number of mandatory operational oil stockpile regimes for companies operating in Southeast Asia. These are generally equivalent to fewer than 40 days of oil use (and in some cases as few as 6 days). Many countries in Southeast Asia have studied or discussed establishing strategic reserves, and a reserve in Viet Nam has already started operation. International cooperation can also play a role by helping to build oil-sharing arrangements with neighbouring countries. Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 PAGE | 12 Key findings Southeast Asia must attract much higher levels of energy sector investment to accelerate its clean energy transition and meet the rising demand for energy services Average annual energy investment in Southeast Asia, 2016-2030 Share of Southeast Asia in the global market, 2016-2030 IEA. All rights reserved. Note: Fossil fuels w/o CCUS = power generation from fossil fuels without carbon capture, utilisation and storage. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2016-20 2026-30 Power investment 2016-20 2026-30 End-use EV sales Grids Batteries Solar together, these close well over 50% of the emissions gap between the STEPS and SDS in 2050. There is also a significant role for low emissions fuels, such as modern bioenergy, hydrogen, hydrogen-based fuels, and CCUS. Including natural gas – when it replaces coal and oil – low emissions fuels close 30% of the emissions gap between the STEPS and SDS in 2050. Modern forms of bioenergy can displace fossil fuels in transport, industry, clean cooking and power generation. Several countries in Southeast Asia have robust mandates to blend transport biofuels and policies to support co-firing, biogas and biomethane, as well as modern cookstoves. To ensure the environmental benefits of bioenergy, feedstocks need to be sustainable, and avoid competition with food production and negative impacts on biodiversity. Low-carbon hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels such as ammonia and synthetic hydrocarbons can help reduce emissions from long-distance transport and heavy industry. Co-firing ammonia in thermal power generation can also help provide a dispatchable low-carbon generation fuel. Brunei Darussalam has started exporting small quantities of hydrogen to Japan, while Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand are piloting green hydrogen and fuel cell systems for power provision. Malaysia and Indonesia are conducting feasibility studies to co-fire ammonia in coal power plants, and there are plans to do so in Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. CCUS can reduce CO 2 emissions from the production of low-carbon hydrogen from natural gas and during fuel production or combustion. At least seven large-scale CCUS projects are in planning in Southeast Asia, including several linked to enhanced oil recovery and natural gas processing with offshore storage. In the SDS, the share of low emissions and abated fuels reaches 50% of total liquid, solid and gaseous fuel demand by 2050. Investment in these fuels averages around USD 10 billion per year to 2050, around half of the level of today’s investments in fossil fuels. Several regulatory hurdles and market risks must be addressed in order to scale up the deployment of low-carbon fuels in Southeast Asia. Even with higher fossil fuel prices, affordability remains a concern and several low emissions technologies and fuels are not yet mature or cost competitive. International collaboration and support are crucial to encourage investment and mitigate financial risks. Indonesia and Malaysia are cooperating with Japan to develop hydrogen, ammonia and CCUS supply chains. Similar initiatives are underway in Thailand and Singapore. Some major oil and gas players, such as Petronas, Pertamina and PTT have formulated plans to invest in hydrogen supply chains and carbon capture projects, often in partnership with international oil companies. Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 PAGE | 16 Key findings Power flexibility: growing deployment of wind and solar will require a more flexible power system – this must be a higher priority for governments and regulators Power generation and shares of variable renewables in Southeast Asia, SDS, 2020-2050 IEA. All rights reserved. Note: Other includes coal with CCUS, nuclear and marine energy. 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 800 1 600 2 400 3 200 2020 2030 2040 2050 TW h Wind Solar PV Geothermal Bioenergy Hydro Ammonia Oil Unabated natural gas Unabated coal blank SDS STEPS Variable renewables share (right axis) Power generation, SDS Other Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022 PAGE | 17 Key findings Power flexibility: less rigid contracts for power generation and fuel supply can play a vital role, alongside strengthened and more integrated regional grids Electricity demand is set to grow rapidly in the coming decades in Southeast Asia and an increasing share will be met by variable renewable sources. In the SDS, for example, the generation share of variable renewables increases from 2% in 2020 to 18% in 2030. The need for flexibility outpaces electricity demand growth. Coal and gas-fired power plants are the region’s main sources of electricity today but they can also play key roles in providing flexibility. Achieving this role change requires changing existing contracts. There is a heavy reliance on physical PPAs in Southeast Asia, especially in vertically integrated power systems such as Indonesia and Thailand, where many plants were financed with physical PPAs with large capacity payments and/or take-or-pay obligations. If assets or entities have a contract that ensures operators a minimum daily load, the assets have no incentives to act flexibly. Most of these PPA contracts extend beyond 2030. In Thailand, for example, minimum-take capacity in all contracts decreases by only 10% to 2030. Without any changes, it will not be easy to repurpose existing