2020年 ODI-计算全球贸易中的碳：为什么进口排放会挑战气候制度，以及对此可以采取的措施（英文）-2020.6-84页

Counting carbon in global trade Why imported emissions challenge the climate regime and what might be done about it An essay series Edited by Aarti Krishnan and Simon Maxwell May 2020 Report Readers are encouraged to reproduce material for their own publications, as long as they are not being sold commercially. ODI requests due acknowledgement and a copy of the publication. For online use, we ask readers to link to the original resource on the ODI website. The views presented in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of ODI or our partners. This work is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. ISBN: 978-1-8380751-0-1. Cover photo: A shipping container in Mumbai Port, India. Credit: Cyprien Hauser. 3 Acknowledgements This publication originated in a workshop on ‘Certification as a route to reducing the global carbon footprint: Implications for developing countries’, held at ODI on 3 September 2019. We are grateful to speakers and others for making papers available here and to all the participants in the workshop for their contributions. We also wish to thank Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive of ODI, for contributing the foreword and the ClimateWorks Foundation for covering the cost of the publication. Special thanks to Dirk Willem te Velde, Director of the ODI International Economic Development Group, for his consistent encouragement and active support. We would like to thank the ODI Communications Team, Elizabeth Tribone and Natalie Brighty, for their support, and Hannah Caddick for her editorial input. Aarti Krishnan is grateful to the Economic and Social Research Council for support. Aarti Krishnan and Simon Maxwell are alone responsible for errors and omissions. List of authors John Barrett, Professor in energy and climate policy, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds. Jonathan Beynon, Senior Economist, Climate and Environment Department, Department for International Development Lina Fedirko, Senior Associate, Transportation, ClimateWorks Foundation Rowland Hill, Sustainability, Marks Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK Government Jonathan Shopley, Managing Director, External Affairs, Natural Capital Partners Martin Smith, Project Director, The Carbon Mark project Dirk Willem te Velde, Director of Programme - International Economic Development Group, Overseas Development Institute Emily Wain, Head of Certification, Avieco World Resources Institute 4 Contents Foreword 9 Sara Pantuliano Part A Introduction 11 Chapter 1 Counting carbon in global trade: why imported emissions challenge the climate regime and what might be done about it 12 Aarti Krishnan and Simon Maxwell Part B Setting the scene 21 Chapter 2 Imported emissions: an overview and policy options 22 John Barrett Chapter 3 Standards and certification: an overview 29 Aarti Krishnan Part C Certification in practice 37 Chapter 4 Lessons from the first decade of environmental footprints 38 Rowland Hill Chapter 5 The GHG Protocol 41 World Resources Institute Chapter 6 The power of carbon-neutral certifications to reduce embodied emissions in international trade 45 Jonathan Shopley Chapter 7 Avieco’s Smart Sustainability certification 49 Emily Wain and Daniel Murray Chapter 8 The carbon labelling journey 52 Hugh Jones Chapter 9 Achieving robust, science-based measurement, reporting and certification of carbon emissions through artificial intelligence and machine learning 56 Martin Smith 5 Part D Policy perspectives 59 Chapter 10 Consumption emissions in UK policy 60 David Joffe Chapter 11 Managing government regulation for carbon reporting and action 63 Gary Shanahan Chapter 12 A new accountability framework to prepare for a new climate regime 67 Aarti Krishnan and Simon Maxwell Chapter 13 Trade and climate: friends or foes? 70 Jodie Keane and Dirk Willem te Velde Chapter 14 Development policy implications of carbon certification and border carbon adjustments 74 Jonathan Beynon Chapter 15 Trading blame or exporting ambition? How trade can drive emissions and how trade policy can be mobilised for climate action 77 Dan Plechaty, Lina Fedirko and Surabi Menon Chapter 16 The measurement, reporting and certification of carbon emissions: implications for developing countries 81 Andrew Scott 6 List of boxes, tables and figures Tables Table 3.1 Types of standard 30 Figures Figure 1.1 Total and per capita GHG emissions, GtCO 2 e, 1990–2018 14 Figure 2.1 Average annual growth rates of key drivers of global CO 2 emissions and components of GHG emissions for OECD and non-OECD countries, % per year, 2009–2018 22 Figure 2.2 Territorial carbon emissions by world region, MtC, 1990–2018 23 Figure 2.3 Territorial and consumption-based carbon emissions, MtC, 1990–2016 24 Figure 2.4 Emissions (MtCO 2 e) associated with the 10 largest countries based on GDP 24 Figure 2.5 UK territorial and consumption emissions, CO 2 e, 1990–2016 25 Figure 2.6 Key drivers of consumption-based GHG emissions in the UK, MtCO 2 , 1997–2016 25 Figure 2.7 Embodied emissions in global trade: BCA possibilities, GtCO 2 27 Figure 3.1 Environment-related requirements within standards 29 Figure 3.2 External and internal pressures supporting the proliferation of standards 31 Figure 3.3 Role of standards in value chains in low- and middle-income countries 32 Figure 5.2 Overview of scopes and emissions across a value chain 42 Figure 5.2 The five stages of a product life cycle 42 Figure 12.1 Paris Agreement transparency framework 68 Figure 16.1 Disparity between territorial and consumption emissions, selected countries 81 Boxes Box 3.1 Fair trade in the food sector 33 Box 5.1 Principles of GHG accounting and reporting 41 Box 11.2 Principles for accounting for and reporting environmental impacts 64 Box 11.1 Standard-setting, reporting and verification frameworks 64 Box 11.3 A process to determine the impacts upstream in the supply chain 65 Box 15.1 Case study: Buy Clean California 78 Box 15.2 Case study: driving climate action with trade 79 7 Acronyms 3Ps performance, participation, progressive realisation AI artificial intelligence ATIS Alliance for Telecommunication Industry Solutions BCA border carbon adjustment CCC Committee on Climate Change CO 2 e carbon dioxide equivalent COP Conference of the Parties CSO civil society organisation CSR corporate social responsibility DFID UK Department for International Development EMAS Eco-Management and Audit Scheme ETS Emissions Trading Scheme EU European Union Eurofer European Steel Association FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FDA United States Food and Drug Administration FRC Financial Reporting Council GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas GtCO 2 e gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent GVC global value chain HFC hydrofluorocarbon IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISO International Organization for Standardization ITC International Trade Centre KPI key performance indicator M the topic of climate change is not just for climate specialists. Designing, incentivising and implementing the right policy responses, in both high- and low-income countries, touches every area of our work – in economics, politics and social policy, in productive and social sectors, and in every other field. At the heart of our work must be a commitment to delivering global change in ways that recognise the legitimate needs of the poorest and of all social groups. Climate change, of course, is intimately linked to the other Sustainable Development Goals. Traded emissions are only one piece of the puzzle, but they are an important one. The share of emissions linked to trade has grown sharply and may be as high as 38% globally. The United Kingdom provides a stark example: net imported emissions now account for over 40% of the country’s total footprint and have risen to such an extent that they now cancel out almost all domestic, territorial reductions. In other words, the UK as a country is producing much less pollution within its borders but generating about the same level through its consumption. This is not only the result of deindustrialisation and the offshoring of polluting industries: in fact, that seems to be a minor factor. More important is that we are richer than we were, so are spending more, and there are more of us. These shifts mean that traded emissions need to feature more prominently in the global climate regime. As they do so, issues of measurement, reporting and certification become crucial: they are the platform on which policy can be built. Already, there is considerable expertise on how to account for greenhouse gas emissions in firms and in the production of goods and services. In the essays in this volume, there are authoritative accounts of both the underlying standards and the different ways in which they are being applied at all stages of the value chain. The legal frameworks are beginning to be put in place. The public–private partnerships are impressive. Low-income countries can benefit from better information of this kind and from new opportunities to acquire technology and present their goods in national and export markets. However, there are costs involved – and risks. Most important is to make sure that these countries have voice and ownership of new global standards and that producers do not suffer from a ‘green squeeze’, whereby costly imported standards devised elsewhere are imposed on poor farmers or workers. Border taxes on the carbon content of trade, as proposed in some high-income countries, could pose a significant risk to poor countries. Here, then, is the task for development and other global policy actors: to understand the nature and scale of the problem; to devise appropriate policy; and to support change. Options for how to do this are to be found in technology transfer, finance and government regulation, and within international bodies like 10 the World Trade Organization and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We do not yet have the answers, but we hope this publication will encourage further work. I would like to express my personal thanks to all the contributors, to the ClimateWorks Foundation for its support with the publication costs, and to Aarti Krishnan and Simon Maxwell for editing the volume. Part A Introduction 12 Chapter 1 Counting carbon in global trade: why imported emissions challenge the climate regime and what might be done about it Aarti Krishnan and Simon Maxwell 1 All references in this form are to contributions in this volume. 1.1 Introduction: a climate regime under threat? For almost 30 years, the climate regime can be characterised as having attempted to tackle a global problem by means of voluntaristic, nationally driven action. But the foundations of this regime are now under threat, with significant implications for developing countries. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted at the Earth Summit in 1992, set out to ‘stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ (UN, 1992). It would do this by virtue of national parties to the Convention agreeing to ‘formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions’. This voluntaristic, bottom-up approach to decarbonisation has been sustained through successive rounds of climate negotiations, most importantly in the 2015 Paris Agreement (UN, 2015a). Under the terms of this agreement, countries are required to submit and update national emissions reduction pledges in the form of ‘nationally determined contributions’ (NDCs) (UN, 2015b). There are two main threats to this regime. The first is the growing importance of emissions traded across national borders, currently accounting for up to 38% of global emissions (Barrett), 1 with developed countries being net importers and emerging economies mostly net exporters. Consequently, territorial emissions are an increasingly unreliable guide to a country’s climate footprint – and reductions in such emissions an unreliable guide to a country’s contribution to climate action. In the UK, for example, both the absolute volume and the share of imported emissions have grown, with imported emissions now accounting for 43% of the country’s total footprint (Barrett). The second threat to the voluntaristic and nationally driven character of the climate regime is the increasing focus on action to reduce the carbon intensity of trade, including, of course, exports from developing to developed countries. The drivers include internal concern within companies and external pressure by civil society organisations, but also a growing body of legislation (Krishnan; Shanahan). Action is given added impetus by the prominence of climate and environment issues in trade negotiations (te Velde and Keane). For example, the European Commission’s proposal for a ‘European Green Deal’, published in December 2019, says that ‘the Commission will propose to make the respect of the Paris agreement an essential element for all future comprehensive trade agreements’ (European Commission, 2019). Further, the Commission will introduce carbon border adjustments to ensure a level playing field in the trade sphere and will appoint a chief trade enforcement officer. In the best case, developing countries may find that the reshaping of the climate regime acts to their benefit, for example, encouraging 13 faster progression to low-carbon output and opening new export opportunities for low- carbon products. In the worst case, however, developing countries may find themselves bearing increasing costs for monitoring and certifying carbon content and perhaps being at a competitive disadvantage in a low-carbon trading system. This has been described as a ‘green squeeze’ (Krishnan). In this context, we aim to understand the challenge to the current climate regime, and to explore the implications for developing countries. Together with a group of distinguished and expert authors, we address five questions: 1. How and why is the geography of carbon emissions changing? 2. How are carbon emissions measured and how are the boundaries set? 3. What are the opportunities and challenges of carbon reporting and certification? 4. What are the implications for developing countries? 5. How should the climate regime adjust to ensure efficient and equitable outcomes? We conclude that the fast-growing share of traded emissions in the global total requires a change to the climate regime, giving greater attention to traded emissions and consumption footprints than has been the case to date. There are opportunities for developing countries to embed green approaches in careful accounting, reporting and certification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, at firm and possibly product levels. Howeve