Satellite Derived and Ground Measured Solar Irradiance for PV Power Nowcasting-Elke Lorenz -Fraunhofer ISE
© Fraunhofer ISE Satellite Based and Ground Measured Solar Irradiance for PV Power Nowcasting: PV Live FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE Elke Lorenz 1 , Wolfgang Heydenreich 1 , Christian Braun 1 , Nicolas Holland 1 , Tobias Zech 1 , Bin Xu-Sigurdsson 1 , Anna Dittmann 1 , Steffen Karalus 1 ,Björn Müller 1 , Sven Killinger 1 , Philipp Guthke 2 1) Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems 2) TransnetBW GmbH PVPMC modeling workshop Weihai 04.02.2018 www.ise.fraunhofer.de © Fraunhofer ISE AGENDA Motivation PV Live project Evaluation © Fraunhofer ISE Motivation Contribution of PV to electricity supply in Germany installed PV power (end 2017): 43 GW peak up to 60% of electricity demand from PV strong variability of solar power www.energy.charts, Sources: 50Hertz, Amprion, Tennet, TrannetBW, EEX 2.4.18 3.4.18 4.4.18 5.4.18 6.4.18 7.4.18 8.4.18 date 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 power (GW) 31GW PV 13 GW PV Conventional 100 MW Wind Solar © Fraunhofer ISE Motivation Integration of PV by transmission system operators Trading of PV power at European power exchange EPEX Congestion management Requirements PV forecast for the next hours and days Assessment of current PV power feed-in Image source: Francis Mc Loyd © Fraunhofer ISE Motivation PV power feed-in for control area of TransnetBW Installed PV power 5.7 GW Approx. 317 000 PV power plants contribute to the PV power feed-in Not all PV power plants provide real-time measurements in 15min resolution Current overall PV feed-in must be estimated from available information Upscaling method required © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live Standard upscaling method and PV Live Standard Upscaling method based on PV measurements © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live Standard upscaling method and PV Live Standard Upscaling method based on PV measurements spatial interpolation/ aggregation/ calibration PV measurements reference plants information on PV portfolio EEG data, annual yield,… PV upscaling Reference PV plants © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live Standard upscaling method and PV Live Standard Upscaling method based on PV measurements spatial interpolation/ aggregation/ calibration PV measurements reference plants information on PV portfolio EEG data, annual yield,… PV upscaling Influence of local, system-specifc factors unclear: shading, snow, curtailment, degradation, orientation, self consumption, © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live upscaling method based on solar irradiance data spatial aggregation/ calibration PV Live Standard upscaling method and PV Live Standard Upscaling method based on PV measurements spatial interpolation/ aggregation/ calibration PV measurements reference plants PV power values PV simulation solar irradiance/ temperature Clear definition of provided data: expected PV power for standard plant Influence of local, system- specifc factors unclear: shading, snow, degradation, orientation, self consumption, curtailment, information on PV portfolio EEG data, annual yield,… PV upscaling PV upscaling © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live upscaling method based on solar irradiance data spatial aggregation/ calibration PV Live Standard upscaling method and PV Live Standard Upscaling method based on PV measurements PV upscaling spatial interpolation/ aggregation/ calibration PV measurements reference plants PV power values PV simulation solar irradiance/ temperature Clear definition of provided data: expected PV power for standard plant Influence of local, system- specifc factors unclear: shading, snow, degradation, orientation, self consumption, curtailment, information on PV portfolio EEG data, annual yield,… © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live Ground-measurements and satellite-based irradiance data Ground-measurements 40 stations in Baden Württemberg 1min resolution, Satellite-based irradiance data High spatial resolution: ~1km x 2km Time resolution: 15min Currently: 33 stations © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live The measurement station 3 silicon sensors (tilted) Tilt 25° East/ South/ West - simulated „standard PV plant“ Pyranometer (horizontal) high accuracy/straight-forward combination with satellite-based irradiance values Real-time transmission every minute fast access to data © Fraunhofer ISE Irradiance measurements in minute resolution: global horizontal and tilted irradiance PV Live Measurements and irradiance maps Satellite-based irradiance maps Heliosat Method * Spatial resolution ~4km x 4km ca. 4000 grid points * Hammer A., Lorenz E: Solar Energy Assessment Using Remote Sensing Technologies , Remote Sensing of Environment 2003 © Fraunhofer ISE Irradiance measurements in minute resolution: global horizontal and tilted irradiance PV Live Measurements and irradiance maps Satellite-based irradiance maps © Fraunhofer ISE AGENDA Motivation PV Live Project Evaluation © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales Dataset 19 stations August 17 – April 18 Global horizontal irradiance GHI Time GHI [W/m 2 ] 15min values single stations © Fraunhofer ISE Quantitative evaluation Root mean square deviation 𝑅𝑅 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝐷𝐷 = 1 𝑁𝑁 � ( 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝐺𝐺 𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 − 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝐺𝐺 𝑚𝑚 𝑚𝑚𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 ) 2 𝑁𝑁 𝑖𝑖 = 1 Normalized with respect to average irradiance If normalized like PV wrt. STC (1000 W/m 2 ) yields about 6% Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales 15min values single stations RMSE = 60 W/m 2 (29 %) RMSD = 60 W/m 2 (29 %) © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales 15min values single stations RMSE = 60 W/m 2 (29 %) RMSD = 60 W/m 2 (29 %) RMSD = 45 W/m 2 (22 %) Hourly values single stations © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales From single station values to regional averages © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales From single station values to regional averages Here: mean of 19 sites © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales From single station values to regional averages Here: mean of 19 sites Reduced fluctuations © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales From single station values to regional averages Here: mean of 19 sites Reduced fluctuations Reduced deviation between measurements and satellite data © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales 15min values, average 19 stations RMSD = 25 W/m 2 (12 %) Hourly values average 19 stations RMSD = 23 W/m 2 (11 %) © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales 15min values, average 19 stations RMSD = 25 W/m 2 (12 %) Hourly values average 19 stations RMSD = 23 W/m 2 (11 %) 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐷𝐷 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑅𝑅 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐷𝐷 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 𝑎𝑎 𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 = 42 % 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐷𝐷 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑅𝑅 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐷𝐷 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 𝑎𝑎 𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 = 51 % © Fraunhofer ISE Estimation of irradiance at ground station with of neighbouring stations Depends on inter-station distance Comparison with satellite-based irradiance (horizontal lines) Satellite derived irradiance values with 15 min/1 h resolution better agreement for inter-station distances investigated here ( 10 km) RMSD- 1h satellite RMSD- 15min satellite inter-station distance [km] relative RMSD [%] 1 hour 15 min 1 min Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance vs. interpolation of neighbouring ground measurement stations © Fraunhofer ISE Summary Nowcasting of PV power important for grid integration of a large share of distributed PV plants New Approach PV Live: Irradiance data for PV power upscaling High-resolution grid of measurement stations in Baden Württemberg Combination with satellite-based irradiance Aim: Improvement of PV power upscaling at TransnetBW Evaluation of satellite derived irradiance on multiple spatial and temporal scales shows good accuracy © Fraunhofer ISE Thank you for your attention! Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Elke Lorenz www.ise.fraunhofer.de Elke.lorenz@ise.fraunhofer.de
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