国际能源署（IEA）《2050年净零排放：全球能源行业路线图》（Net Zero by 2050，A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector）

Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector Net Zero by 2050 Interactive iea.li/nzeroadmap Net Zero by 2050 Data iea.li/nzedata IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries: Brazil China India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t GDP = gross domestic product in purchasing power parity. Net zero by 2050 requires huge leaps in clean energy innovation Reaching net zero by 2050 requires further rapid deployment of available technologies as well as widespread use of technologies that are not on the market yet. Major innovation efforts must occur over this decade in order to bring these new technologies to market in time. Most of the global reductions in CO 2 emissions through 2030 in our pathway come from technologies readily available today. But in 2050, almost half the reductions come from technologies that are currently at the demonstration or prototype phase. In heavy industry and long‐distance transport, the share of emissions reductions from technologies that are still under development today is even higher. The biggest innovation opportunities concern advanced batteries, hydrogen electrolysers, and direct air capture and storage. Together, these three technology areas make vital contributions the reductions in CO 2 emissions between 2030 and 2050 in our pathway. Innovation over the next ten years – not only through research and development (R no new coal mines or mine extensions Summary for policy makers 21 There is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply in our net zero pathway Beyond projects already committed as of 2021, there are no new oil and gas fields approved for development in our pathway, and no new coal mines or mine extensions are required. The unwavering policy focus on climate change in the net zero pathway results in a sharp decline in fossil fuel demand, meaning that the focus for oil and gas producers switches entirely to output – and emissions reductions – from the operation of existing assets. Unabated coal demand declines by 98% to just less than 1% of total energy use in 2050. Gas demand declines by 55% to 1 750 billion cubic metres and oil declines by 75% to 24 million barrels per day (mb/d), from around 90 mb/d in 2020. Clean electricity generation, network infrastructure and end‐use sectors are key areas for increased investment. Enabling infrastructure and technologies are vital for transforming the energy system. Annual investment in transmission and distribution grids expands from USD 260 billion today to USD 820 billion in 2030. The number of public charging points for EVs rises from around 1 million today to 40 million in 2030, requiring annual investment of almost USD 90 billion in 2030. Annual battery production for EVs leaps from 160 gigawatt‐ hours (GWh) today to 6 600 GWh in 2030 – the equivalent of adding almost 20 gigafactories2 each year for the next ten years. And the required roll‐out of hydrogen and CCUS after 2030 means laying the groundwork now: annual investment in CO2 pipelines and hydrogen‐ enabling infrastructure increases from USD 1 billion today to around USD 40 billion in 2030. Drive a historic surge in clean energy investment Policies need to be designed to send market signals that unlock new business models and mobilise private spending, especially in emerging economies. Accelerated delivery of international public finance will be critical to energy transitions, especially in developing economies, but ultimately the private sector will need to finance most of the extra investment required. Mobilising the capital for large‐scale infrastructure calls for closer co‐operation between developers, investors, public financial institutions and governments. Reducing risks for investors will be essential to ensure successful and affordable clean energy transitions. Many emerging market and developing economies, which rely mainly on public funding for new energy projects and industrial facilities, will need to reform their policy and regulatory frameworks to attract more private finance. International flows of long‐term capital to these economies will be needed to support the development of both existing and emerging clean energy technologies. 2 Battery gigafactory capacity assumption = 35 gigawatt‐hours per year. PRIORITY ACTION IEA. All rights reserved. 22 International Energy Agency | Special Report Clean energy investment in the net zero pathway An unparalleled clean energy investment boom lifts global economic growth Total annual energy investment surges to USD 5 trillion by 2030, adding an extra 0.4 percentage point a year to annual global GDP growth, based on our joint analysis with the International Monetary Fund. This unparalleled increase – with investment in clean energy and energy infrastructure more than tripling already by 2030 – brings significant economic benefits as the world emerges from the Covid‐19 crisis. The jump in private and government spending creates millions of jobs in clean energy, including energy efficiency, as well as in the engineering, manufacturing and construction industries. All of this puts global GDP 4% higher in 2030 than it would be based on current trends. Governments have a key role in enabling investment‐led growth and ensuring that the benefits are shared by all. There are large differences in macroeconomic impacts between regions. But government investment and public policies are essential to attract large amounts of private capital and to help offset the declines in fossil fuel income that many countries will experience. The major innovation efforts needed to bring new clean energy technologies to market could boost productivity and create entirely new industries, providing opportunities to locate them in areas that see job losses in incumbent industries. Improvements in air quality provide major health benefits, with 2 million fewer premature deaths globally from air pollution in 2030 than today in our net zero pathway. Achieving universal energy access by 2030 would provide a major boost to well‐being and productivity in developing economies. 1 2 3 4 5 2016‐20 2030 2050 Trillion U S D (2019) End‐use Energy infrastructure Electricity generation Low‐emissions fuels Summary for policy makers 23 New energy security concerns emerge, and old ones remain The contraction of oil and natural gas production will have far‐reaching implications for all the countries and companies that produce these fuels. No new oil and natural gas fields are needed in our pathway, and oil and natural gas supplies become increasingly concentrated in a small number of low‐cost producers. For oil, the OPEC share of a much‐reduced global oil supply increases from around 37% in recent years to 52% in 2050, a level higher than at any point in the history of oil markets. Yet annual per capita income from oil and natural gas in producer economies falls by about 75%, from USD 1 800 in recent years to USD 450 by the 2030s, which could have knock‐on societal effects. Structural reforms and new sources of revenue are needed, even though these are unlikely to compensate fully for the drop in oil and gas income. While traditional supply activities decline, the expertise of the oil and natural gas industry fits well with technologies such as hydrogen, CCUS and offshore wind that are needed to tackle emissions in sectors where reductions are likely to be most challenging. The energy transition requires substantial quantities of critical minerals, and their supply emerges as a significant growth area. The total market size of critical minerals like copper, cobalt, manganese and various rare earth metals grows almost sevenfold between 2020 and 2030 in the net zero pathway. Revenues from those minerals are larger than revenues from coal well before 2030. This creates substantial new opportunities for mining companies. It also creates new energy security concerns, including price volatility and additional costs for transitions, if supply cannot keep up with burgeoning demand. The rapid electrification of all sectors makes electricity even more central to energy security around the world than it is today. Electricity system flexibility – needed to balance wind and solar with evolving demand patterns – quadruples by 2050 even as retirements of fossil fuel capacity reduce conventional sources of flexibility. The transition calls for major increases in all sources of flexibility: batteries, demand response and low‐carbon flexible power plants, supported by smarter and more digital electricity networks. The resilience of electricity systems to cyberattacks and other emerging threats needs to be enhanced. Address emerging energy security risks now Ensuring uninterrupted and reliable supplies of energy and critical energy‐related commodities at affordable prices will only rise in importance on the way to net zero. The focus of energy security will evolve as reliance on renewable electricity grows and the role of oil and gas diminishes. Potential vulnerabilities from the increasing importance of electricity include the variability of supply and cybersecurity risks. Governments need to create markets for investment in batteries, digital solutions and electricity grids that reward flexibility and enable adequate and reliable supplies of electricity. The growing dependence on critical minerals required for key clean energy technologies calls for new international mechanisms to ensure both the timely PRIORITY ACTION IEA. All rights reserved. 24 International Energy Agency | Special Report availability of supplies and sustainable production. At the same time, traditional energy security concerns will not disappear, as oil production will become more concentrated. Global energy security indicators in the net zero pathway Note: mb/d = million barrels per day; Mt = million tonnes. International co‐operation is pivotal for achieving net‐zero emissions by 2050 Making net‐zero emissions a reality hinges on a singular, unwavering focus from all governments – working together with one another, and with businesses, investors and citizens. All stakeholders need to play their part. The wide‐ranging measures adopted by governments at all levels in the net zero pathway help to frame, influence and incentivise the purchase by consumers and investment by businesses. This includes how energy companies invest in new ways of producing and supplying energy services, how businesses invest in equipment, and how consumers cool and heat their homes, power their devices and travel. Underpinning all these changes are policy decisions made by governments. Devising cost‐ effective national and regional net zero roadmaps demands co‐operation among all parts of government that breaks down silos and integrates energy into every country’s policy making on finance, labour, taxation, transport and industry. Energy or environment ministries alone cannot carry out the policy actions needed to reach net zero by 2050. Changes in energy consumption result in a significant decline in fossil fuel tax revenues. In many countries today, taxes on diesel, gasoline and other fossil fuel consumption are an important source of public revenues, providing as much as 10% in some cases. In the net zero pathway, tax revenue from oil and gas retail sales falls by about 40% between 2020 and 2030. Managing this decline will require long‐term fiscal planning and budget reforms. 10 20 30 40 50 2020 2050 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2020 2050 20 40 60 80 100 2020 2050 Oil supply (mb/d) Share of solar PV and wind in electricity generation Critical minerals demand (Mt) 52% OPEC share 34% Summary for policy makers 25 The net zero pathway relies on unprecedented international co‐operation among governments, especially on innovation and investment. The IEA stands ready to support governments in preparing national and regional net zero roadmaps, to provide guidance and assistance in implementing them, and to promote international co‐operation to accelerate the energy transition worldwide. Take international co-operation to new heights This is not simply a matter of all governments seeking to bring their national emissions to net zero – it means tackling global challenges through co‐ordinated actions. Governments must work together in an effective and mutually beneficial manner to implement coherent measures that cross borders. This includes carefully managing domestic job creation and local commercial advantages with the collective global need for clean energy technology deployment. Accelerating innovation, developing international standards and co‐ordinating to scale up clean technologies needs to be done in a way that links national markets. Co‐operation must recognise differences in the stages of development of different countries and the varying situations of different parts of society. For many rich countries, achieving net‐zero emissions will be more difficult and costly without international co‐operation. For many developing countries, the pathway to net zero without international assistance is not clear. Technical and financial support is needed to ensure deployment of key technologies and infrastructure. Without greater international co‐operation, global CO 2 emissions will not fall to net zero by 2050. Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the net zero pathway and Low International Co-operation Case Note: Gt = gigatonnes. 10 20 30 40 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Gt C O 2 NZE Low International Cooperation Case PRIORITY ACTION IEA. All rights reserved. Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Interactive iea.li/nzeroadmap 2035 2020 2030 Industry Other Power Transport Unabated coal, natural gas and oil account for over 60% of total electricity generation Solar PV and wind accounts for almost 10% of total electricity generation Retrofit rates below 1% globally Fossil fuels account for almost 80% of TES 40 Mt CO 2 captured 5% of global car sales are electric 33.9 Total CO 2 emissions (Gt) Buildings 2.9Gt 8.5Gt 1.9Gt 13.5Gt 7.2Gt From 20