中国的气候挑战：资助向零排放过渡（英）-世界经济论坛.pdf

China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero INSIGHT REPORT JULY 2022 In collaboration with Oliver WymanContents Foreword Executive summary 1 China’s commitment to tackling climate change 2 The financing gap 2.1 Building a stronger information infrastructure 2.2 Balancing lending supply and demand 2.3 Enhancing the policy framework 3 Industry analysis 3.1 Mobility 3.2 Construction and real estate 3.3 Steel Conclusion Contributors Acknowledgements Endnotes 3 4 5 10 13 15 17 21 22 28 32 38 39 40 42 Images: Getty, Unsplash © 2022 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders. China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero 2An April 2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report found that the global community is on a pathway to global warming of more than double the 1.5°C (or 2.7° Fahrenheit) limit agreed upon in Paris in 2015. The report underscores the urgency with which private and public sector leaders must act, and China – currently the world’s largest carbon emitter – has made an ambitious pledge to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050. Fulfilling this commitment will require an enormous amount of financing – about CNY 140 trillion (Chinese yuan renminbi) ($22 trillion) in total for the 2020-2060 period across the electricity, steel, mobility, and construction and real estate industries alone. These are also heavily polluting industries that are particularly hard to transition and require the application of innovative, new technologies that are early- stage, capital-intense and risky. Public and private stakeholders, both from carbon-intense industries and the financial services community, need to create new financing models to develop, test and scale these technologies. To facilitate this process, the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with Oliver Wyman, is engaging global industry leaders in the Financing the Transition to a Net-Zero Future initiative. In October 2021 – and in time for the 26th United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) – initiative members published an insight report presenting initial findings from these global discussions. Building on this work and recognizing China’s significance in accelerating capital mobilization towards these early-stage decarbonization technologies, the Forum and Oliver Wyman convened a group of Chinese industry leaders and experts in early 2022 to explore how challenges and opportunities in China align with or differ from global dynamics. Through numerous workshops and expert interviews, more than 50 industry and public sector leaders contributed insights and observations and posed yet-to-be-solved questions that are presented in this insight report. China holds a critical and outsized role in helping the global community achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement and preserving the planet’s biosphere. At the same time, China’s available financing mechanisms and its financial system remain somewhat distinct. A nuanced understanding of prioritized net-zero technologies and potential pathways to financing these technologies in Greater China is therefore critical to ensure the country can achieve its net-zero ambitions. This publication seeks to help in turning these ambitions into realities, show the enormous opportunities China holds for contributing to the global carbon-neutrality agenda and also highlight remaining challenges. We welcome your feedback on the ideas presented in this insight report and encourage you to become part of this important work facilitated by the World Economic Forum through the Shaping the Future of Financial and Monetary Systems Platform and the Mission Possible Platform. Foreword China holds immense opportunities to realize net-zero ambitions and global environmental change. Jason Ekberg Partner, Corporate and Institutional Banking Practice, Oliver Wyman Kai Keller Platform Curator, The Future of Financial Services in China, World Economic Forum China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero July 2022 China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero 3Executive summary China has the most ambitious net-zero target of any country worldwide and so must ensure it can finance a carbon-neutral transition. China has declared itself fully committed to having a decarbonized economy by 2060, a massive ambition. For more than 15 years, due to its heavily industrialized economy, it has been the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. One unique challenge the world’s second biggest economy will face in transitioning to carbon neutrality is balancing its decarbonization ambitions with the need to maintain a compelling economic growth rate. At the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) held in Glasgow, Scotland, from 31 October to 13 November 2021, China and the US agreed to boost climate cooperation over the next decade. In a joint declaration, the two countries called for increased efforts to close the significant gap, which will be necessary if the world is to keep its target of restricting the average global temperate rise to 1.5°C, as set out in the Paris Agreement of 2015. They renewed this commitment to cooperate at the Forum’s Annual Meeting 2022 in Davos. Despite these bold words, China’s journey to a carbon-free future has only just started. As this report shows, the coming decades will see China having to invest heavily in economic transformation, above all in three sectors that, along with energy, dominate the country’s carbon emissions: steel, mobility, and construction and real estate. Covering the R&D expenditure needed to identify and develop the necessary new technologies and paying for the new machinery and equipment that must be bought and installed will require an immense amount of funding. This report identifies three areas where change will be needed to make these shifts possible: – Finance innovation, particularly in finding ways in which lending packages can be structured to meet the needs of long-term borrowers facing higher costs and/or lower margins. – Collaboration, particularly between different players within an industry that can create incentives for companies to produce or use sustainable products and inputs. – Policy support, particularly in the areas of standards and the use of tax incentives to discourage unwanted behaviour, such as through the imposition of carbon taxes, and encourage desirable practices, such as tax breaks on green products and services. Although realizing some of these changes will be challenging, none looks insurmountable. Rather, as this report concludes, given the resources China has available, the commitment of its government and the time scale over which China’s transition to carbon neutrality will occur, there is good reason to believe the Chinese economy will indeed be carbon neutral by 2060. China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero 4China’s commitment to tackling climate change 1 Through the adoption of green technologies, China can radically transform their economy to achieve net zero. China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero 5China is active in the world’s major global initiatives to tackle climate change. Like most other countries, it recognizes that a global problem needs global solutions. It is moving ahead with the ongoing adoption of the Paris Accords, including those commitments agreed at COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021. In addition, despite broader geopolitical tensions, China and the US issued a joint statement addressing the climate crisis, followed by a joint declaration on tackling climate change at COP26, which demonstrate a commitment to boosting climate cooperation over the next decade (Figure 1). Domestic policies in China are also heavily focused on climate change. The latest five-year plan, covering 2021-25, puts decarbonization at the centre of policy-making, and the country has also made progress in the carbon trading market. China’s recent commitment to tackling climate change FIGURE 1                                              
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  Nv1 Source: World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman, 2022, based on official disclosures Nonetheless, it is also clear that China’s transition to a carbon-free future has only just started. Its commitment to reaching peak CO 2 emissions by 2030 and having net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2060 represents a gigantic project that is unique in two ways. First, industrial output constitutes a much higher proportion of the Chinese economy than any other major economy. And second, its economic governance model means that the West’s free- market mechanisms might be less applicable to driving change. China is considered to be “the world’s factory”, with its manufacturing’s share of GDP – 27% in 2019 – far higher than in any of the developed economies such as Germany and Japan (Figure 2). 1 Furthermore, this manufacturing is heavily concentrated in sectors with high CO 2 emissions (Figure 3), including steel, cement, petrochemicals and automotive. 2 China’s manufacturing CO 2 emissions alone are equal to 2.2 times the total emissions in Europe and almost 13 times the carbon sunk from photosynthesis in the Amazon jungle. 3 This carbon-heavy core of the Chinese economy will require substantial technological advances and investment to reach net zero. China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero 6The proportion of manufacturing in GDP in China, the EU, the US and globally (2015-2019) FIGURE 2                            
() –          C  W ld E pU  U dS   Source: World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman, adapted from World Bank, Data – Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP), 2021 China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero 7CO 2 emissions by final sector (2018) FIGURE 3                                                     Source: World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman, adapted from International Energy Agency, Data and statistics, 2020 Consequently, China’s net-zero commitment will depend on a revolutionary transformation of its economy driven by the widespread adoption of green technologies, which will require enormous investment (T able 1 ). Prioritized technology to be financed, with expected contribution to China becoming net zero by 2060 TABLE 1 Source: Oliver Wyman estimation Industry Technology breakthroughs Expected contribution to 2060 net zero in China Energy Photovoltaic (PV) Generating electricity from solar power with PV modules 15-20% Wind power Generating power with wind turbines 10-15% Nuclear power, etc. Generating electricity from nuclear power, geothermal, tidal and other low-carbon energy 5-8% Construction and real estate Green cement Using waste or green materials and more efficient technologies in cement production 3-5% Building energy management Efficient in-building energy management and use of building in renewable energy production (e.g. rooftop PV) 2-3% Iron and steel Long process to mini-mill Using electric furnaces which have shorter processes and lower emissions, using scrap steel as raw material 8-10% Hydrogen metallurgy Using hydrogen as a reducing agent instead of coal for metallurgy 1-2% Mobility Electrification of automobiles Using electric vehicles to replace fuel vehicles 3-5% Green auto factories Using recycled materials and components, efficient processes and energy management tools 1-2% Heating Green heating Using geothermal, industrial waste heat and other energy sources to replace coal for heating 3-5% General Carbon capture, utilization and storage Captures carbon dioxide emissions from sources for either storage or reuse 15-20% China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero 8China’s unique economic model will shape this transition with both the government and provincial administrations playing key roles due to their involvement in detailed economic planning. State- owned enterprises will also be important due to their substantial market share in many industries, including the carbon-heavy industries needing to transition and the financial services that will have to finance that transition. Compared with Western market-driven models, especially those where corporate’s quarterly results are a focus, this top-down approach to economic planning may prove advantageous in investing for the long term. However, China will also need to ensure market vitality remains strong so that it encourages the innovation and development of the new technologies needed to ensure successful decarbonization (Figure 4). Four key forces in Chinese society and their participation in net zero FIGURE 4                                     
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