2021年低排放技术报告书（英）-澳大利亚政府.pdf

LOW EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGY STATEMENT 2021COPYRIGHT © Commonwealth of Australia 2021 Ownership of intellectual property rights Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, if any) in this publication is owned by the Commonwealth of Australia. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence CC BY 4.0 All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence, with the exception of: • the Commonwealth Coat of Arms • content supplied by third parties • logos • any material protected by trademark or otherwise noted in this publication. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence is a standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms is available from https:/ /creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. 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Interested parties should make their own independent inquires and obtain their own independent professional advice prior to relying on, or making any decisions in relation to, the information provided in this publication. The Commonwealth accepts no responsibility or liability for any damage, loss or expense incurred as a result of the reliance on information contained in this publication.LOW EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGY STATEMENT 20212 LOW EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGY STATEMENT 2021Contents Message from the Minister 5 Message from the Chair 6 At a glance 11 Introduction 15 Australian Government investment 24 Government actions 29 Priority technologies 43 Enabling infrastructure 47 Emerging technologies 53 Accelerating deployment 61 Australia’s resources opportunity 87 Impact evaluation framework 974 LOW EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGY STATEMENT 20215 LOW EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGY STATEMENT 2021 Message from the Minister The Technology Investment Roadmap and its Low Emissions Technology Statements set out Australia’s technology-led approach to accelerating the development of technologies essential to achieving net zero emissions. Our goal is to drive down the cost of a portfolio of low emissions technologies, because getting them to commercial parity with existing approaches will make them more attractive to consumers at home and abroad. Our approach is technology not taxes, because it’s the only way to reduce emissions without imposing new costs on households or businesses, or raising the price of existing energy sources. To achieve this goal, we are investing more than $20 billion in new energy technologies over the coming decade, to drive between $80 billion and up to $120 billion of combined public and private investment and creating 160,000 jobs. Like the government’s 10 year funding model for infrastructure investment, we have adopted a decade-long funding model to bring forward private sector investment in low emissions technologies. The government will continue to refine its investments over time. Since the release of the first statement (LETS 2020) in September 2020, we have committed an additional $1.7 billion in new funding across a range of areas including clean hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, soil carbon measurement and a series of international partnerships. The release of LETS 2021, the second annual statement under the roadmap, is an important element of Australia’s Long-Term Emissions Reduction Plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Annual reviews of our technology priorities and the investments we are making are part of our commitment to being accountable for progress under our Plan. LETS 2021 expands the priorities set out in LETS 2020, adding a new priority technology and associated stretch goal, as well as identifying new actions the government will take to establish Australia as a leader in low emissions technologies. Getting the cost of solar energy down to less than $15 per megawatt hour, around a third of today’s cost, will help us achieve dramatic cost reductions in clean hydrogen produced from electrolysis and in low emissions materials. Clean, low cost, bulk electricity supply will also help maintain Australia’s traditional advantage in affordable and reliable energy. Our continent has the highest levels of irradiation of any in the world and we have an incredible track record of driving innovation in solar photovoltaics, with more than 90% of solar panels manufactured around the world using Australian technology. LETS 2021 also adds enabling infrastructure as a new technology category, which will focus on infrastructure to help deploy priority and emerging low emissions technologies at a commercial scale, including for electric vehicles. I would like to thank the Chair of the Technology Investment Advisory Council, Dr Alan Finkel, and the other council members – Drew Clarke, Jo Evans, Grant King, David Parker, Justin Punch, Steven Skala, Alison Watkins, Shemara Wikramanayake and Ben Wilson – for their invaluable expertise and advice in developing this year’s statement. The Hon Angus Taylor MP Minister for Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction6 LOW EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGY STATEMENT 2021 Message from the Chair The decade is still young, a decade during which we must accelerate progress in low emissions technologies into broad and lasting benefits. This technological transformation has the potential to fuel our long-term prosperity, pave the way for net zero emissions by 2050 and preserve our planet. But it rests on our ability to promote Australia’s unmatched enterprise and creativity and expand early wins in low emissions technologies into mainstream solutions. The 2021 Low Emissions Technology Statement (LETS) represents the second important milestone in the development of a roadmap to guide our path toward this target. LETS 2021 is technology agnostic – selecting priorities through the filters of abatement potential, economic benefit, Australia’s comparative advantage and responsiveness to government investment – while taking action to lower the adoption costs for new and emerging low emissions technologies. It underscores the importance of research and development, regulations, community engagement, voluntary action and efficient operation of markets. It introduces new policy initiatives, adds ultra low-cost solar as a priority technology in recognition of the contribution clean electricity makes to the success of the other priority technologies, and provides a new focus on enabling infrastructures that are essential to curbing emissions across the electricity and transport sectors. As the global challenge of climate change has become dramatically evident in recent years, so too has the need for greater international cooperation. We have fostered partnerships with Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore and the United Kingdom, to advance the development and deployment of low emissions technologies and embrace our collective responsibility to protect our common home. It is a privilege to be part of such a strategic, rigorous and adaptive approach that reflects the vigour and vision this challenge demands. I thank Minister Angus Taylor for the opportunity to contribute, and for his wise guidance and engagement throughout. I also express my sincere thanks and appreciation to my fellow council members. They have reflected deeply on the technology challenges, and opportunities, for Australia. Their astute counsel has made it possible to take the next step in this journey. I acknowledge the strong capability and professionalism from the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources and I offer my specific thanks to the dedicated team that has implemented the work. Finally, I thank all our industry partners who have shared their expert knowledge over the past year. Dr Alan Finkel AO Special Adviser to the Australian Government on Low Emissions Technology Chair of the Technology Investment Advisory Council 7 LOW EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGY STATEMENT 2021 Our Vision Australia’s big technology challenges How government will make a difference Australia’s principles for emissions reduction Scaling geological and biological sequestration to provide globally significant sequestration of CO₂ Invest in low emissions technology research, development, demonstration and early-stage commercialisation Facilitate voluntary action by businesses and consumers to reduce emissions Invest in enabling infrastructure and technology Ensure transparency and accountability to inform consumers Work with international partners A prosperous Australia, recognised as a global low emissions technology leader Delivery of low-cost, clean and reliable energy to households and industry for transportation, heating, lighting and production Expanding production and increasing productivity, creating jobs and substantially reducing emissions from Australia’s primary industries Preserving and expanding onshore manufacturing of energy-intensive products and capturing new export markets for low emissions commodities Technology not taxes Expand choices, not mandates Drive down the cost of a range of new technologies Keep energy prices down with affordable and reliable power Be accountable for progress8 LOW EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGY STATEMENT 2021 Priority Technologies Achieving our economic stretch goals 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Clean hydrogen Clean hydrogen production under $2 per kilogram Ultra low- cost solar Solar electricity generation at $15 per MWh Energy storage Electricity from storage for firming under $100 per MWh Low emissions steel Low emissions steel production under $700 per tonne (based on the marginal cost) Low emissions aluminium Low emissions aluminium under $2,200 per tonne (based on the marginal cost) Carbon capture and storage CO2 compression, hub transport and storage for under $20 per tonne of CO 2 Soil carbon Soil organic carbon measurement under $3 per hectare per year * clean hydrogen produced from natural gas with emissions captured and stored permanently underground is technically and economically feasible, but subject to offtake agreements, development approvals and the adoption of a hydrogen Guarantee of Origin scheme † price assumptions for the other priority technologies don’t yet include the reduction in electricity prices expected from ultra low-cost solar, or the associated upside benefits for meeting the stretch goals ‡ economically viable in the late 2020s, but subject to capital development cycles ^ subject to offtake agreements and development approvals Lithium-ion batteries Hydrogen and direct reduction of iron‡ Renewable electricity and inert anodes Expected deployment^ Advancement in proximal sensing, modelling and remote sensing technologies Large scale solar† Steam methane reforming with CCS* Renewable electrolysis Higher confidence of achieving stretch goal Earliest date for achieving stretch goal Legend9 LOW EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGY STATEMENT 2021 New government actions in 2021 Advancing the roadmap Battery charging and hydrogen refuelling stations Digital grid to support growth in wind and solar generation Low emissions cement to reduce emissions from cement production Livestock feed supplements to reduce methane emissions from cows and sheep Our Actions Enabling infrastructure Emerging technologies A new category for infrastructure that will help deploy priority, emerging and proven low emissions technologies at commercial scale, and support consumer choice Two emerging technologies show promise for prioritisation in future statements and will be supported by early investments Solar 30 30 30 initiative Infrastructure assessment Clean hydrogen industrial hubs Voluntary zero emissions gas market Impact evaluation framework Outlines metrics to track our progress Accelerating deployment of priority low emissions technologies Identifies opportunities to meet our stretch goals Australia’s resources opportunity in a new energy economy Highlights resource opportunities for Australia through the global adoption of low emissions technologies10 LOW EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGY STATEMENT 202111 LOW EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGY STATEMENT 2021 At a glance About the Low Emissions Technology Statement 2021 This is the second Low Emissions Technology Statement (LETS 2021) released by the Australian Government. Annual statements are released under the Technology Investment Roadmap. The roadmap is the cornerstone of Australia’s Long-Term Emissions Reduction Plan to meet net zero emissions by 2050. It is an enduring process to accelerate the development and commercialisation of new and emerging low emissions technologies to reach cost parity with existing high emissions technologies. The Australian Government’s technology-led approach will reduce emissions without imposing new costs on households, businesses or the economy. Priority low emissions technologies The first Low Emissions Technology Statement, released in 2020 (LETS 2020), identified five priority technologies and set economic stretch goals for each one: — clean hydrogen – production under $2 per kilogram (kg) — energy storage – electricity from storage for firming under $100 per megawatt hour (MWh) — low emissions materials (steel and aluminium) – low emissions steel production under $700 per tonne and low emissions aluminium production under $2,200 per tonne 1 — carbon capture and storage (CCS) – carbon dioxide (CO₂) compression, hub transport and storage under $20 per tonne of CO₂ — soil carbon – soil carbon measurement under $3 per hectare per year. Economic stretch goals are ambitious but realistic goals to bring priority low emissions technologies to cost parity with existing high emissions technologies. 1 LETS 2020 identified this priority technology as ‘low carbon materials (steel and aluminium)’. This change has been made to clarify that the priority technology focus is on low emissions production for steel and aluminium products rather than products that contain low elemental carbon content. To be consistent with other priority technologies, the low emissions materials stretch goals have been refined to reflect