国际投行报告-亚太地区投资策略-替代能源：氢，脱碳和可再生能源.pdf

Global Themes Monitor Alternative Energy (Vol. 3): Hydrogen, Decarbonisation and Renewables Thematic Research | Theme Figure 1: Impact of recent NDC submissions + sectoral pledges since Sept-2020 on the 2030 emissions gap Source: Climate Action Tracker. NDC – Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 turned out to be an important year for mankind’s efforts to manage its carbon footprint. After leadership change, USA re-committed to climate change mitigation efforts. Equally important, China, which is a manufacturing base for a number of global products and hence a sizeable contributor to GHG emissions, shared its net zero targets. COP26 brought together leadership from across the world, and countries have renewed their commitment towards making earth greener and the environment healthier. However, as shown in Fig. 1, current NDCs are not sufficient to reach the targeted level of emissions. In this third edition of the Global Themes Monitor on Alternative Energy (refer to earlier editions here #1 and #2), we highlight key CS research reports. Our global ESG research team looks at the key industry trends, and presents its view regarding key monitorables in 2022. The team believes that regulation and decarbonisation will dominate the ESG investments, which have now reached US$35 tn in AUM in 2021. CS Global ESG team evaluates the progress of COP26, and shares that private sector commitments came out as the biggest upside surprise. Keeping in mind the net zero emission targets, CS Europe team maps out the capacity build-up plan in green hydrogen production, renewables power and electrolysis capacity in the next few decades. The team also initiated on European hydrogen and renewables pure-plays. Our APAC ESG Strategist delved into various facets of China’s Net Zero policy framework released in late 2021. This report builds on earlier work done by the China Equity research team on China’s carbon neutrality efforts, which highlights the progress in renewables, autos (NEV), materials and industrials sectors. Our Global Renewables team did a deep-dive into various disruptive innovations across the solar/wind supply chain, which will further reduce cost of renewable energy, and provide a strong boost to net zero emission initiatives. Based on the deep-dive of our global teams, we present a consolidated list of companies exposed to the hydrogen theme in Americas, APAC, and Europe in Figures 35-37. ‘Global Themes Monitor’ provides updates on key global themes and presents a comprehensive round-up of Credit Suisse research on the sector. 8 February 2022 Equity Research Asia Pacific DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Research Analysts Global Sector Themes Marketing 852 2101 7067 globalsectorthemes.marketing@credit-suisse.com Manish Nigam 852 2101 7067 manish.nigam@credit-suisse.com Vaibhav Jain 852 2101 7061 vaibhav.jain@credit-suisse.com 8 February 2022 Global Themes Monitor 2 Focus charts and tables Figure 2: Key detailed reports over the past few months Sector Report Research Analyst Month* Global Renewables Sector Disruptive innovations for Net Zero Alex Liu Jan-2022 Global ESG Research Sustainable Investing in 2022: Focus on regulation and decarbonisation Eugene Klerk Dec-2021 Sustainable Energy Initiating coverage of European Hydrogen TOPCon= Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact; HJT= Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin-layer; MBB= Multi Bus bars; MWT= Metal Wrap Through; CdTe= Cadmium Telluride; EBOS= electrical balance of systems W i n d s u p p l y c h a i n Ca r b o n f i b r e ( 20 21 : 9%, 20 25 : 20 %) Ve r ti c al A x i s ( 20 21 : 0%, 20 25 : 1%) M e d i u m - vo l tage I GC T ( 20 21 : 10 %, 2 0 2 5 : 3 0 %) B l ade Pitc h c o nt ro l Gea rb o x Generato r C o nve rt er T u rb i ne T o w er W i nd f arm I n d i vid u al p i tc h ( 2 0 2 1 : 4 0 %, 20 25 : 75 %) S o l a r s u p p l y c h a i n G r a n u l a r si l i c o n ( 20 21 : 4% , 2025: 25 %) L ar ge r w af e r ( 20 21 : 50 %, 20 25 : 95 %) M BB / M WT 20 21 : 25 %, 20 25 : 48 %) N - ty p e w af e r ( 20 21 : 10 %, 20 25 : 20 %) T O P Co n ( 20 21 : 6%, 20 25 : 18 %) A d va n c e d i n ve r te r s ( 2021: 50% , 2025: 80% ) Po l ysil i c o n W afer C ell Mo d u l e So l ar f arm EBO S ( 20 20 : 32 %, 20 23 : 60 %) HJT ( 20 21 : 3%, 20 25 : 19 %) T h i n f i l m - Cd T e ( 20 20 :4%, 20 23 : 5%) T r ac ki n g syste m ( 2 0 2 1 : 3 4 %, 20 25 : 54 %) 8 February 2022 Global Themes Monitor 3 Figure 6: Global electricity mix scenarios Figure 7: Investment requirements to decarbonise the world are substantial Source: IEA (2021) World Energy Outlook, Credit Suisse research Source: IEA, Credit Suisse research Figure 8: Global Hydrogen Electrolysis demand Figure 9: Implied Renewable Capacity (GW) Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 10: Green H2 value chain implied by 40GW target Figure 11: Carbon Capture storage required for blue hydrogen Source: Credit Suisse estimates Source: Credit Suisse estimates - 1 0 ,0 00 2 0 ,0 00 3 0 ,0 00 4 0 ,0 00 5 0 ,0 00 6 0 ,0 00 7 0 ,0 00 8 0 ,0 00 20 2 0 An no un c ed Pl ed ge s Sc en ar i o N e t Z e r o Sc en ar i o An no un c ed Pl ed ge s Sc en ar i o N e t Z e r o Sc en ar i o An no un c ed Pl ed ge s Sc en ar i o N e t Z e r o Sc enar i o 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0 T Wh So l a r Wind Other r e new a bl e s N u c l ear H ydr o g e n , fo ss i l f u e l s w i th C C U S U n a b a te d f o ss i l f u e l s $0 $ 5 0 0 $ 1 , 0 0 0 $ 1 , 5 0 0 $ 2 , 0 0 0 $ 2 , 5 0 0 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 2 0 2 1 -2 0 3 0 C u rr e nt P le dg e 20 21 -2 0 30 N e t Z er o ( $ b n ) 96 945 3, 925 0 100 0 200 0 300 0 400 0 500 0 203 0 204 0 205 0 GW of E lec tro lysi s R e f i ni ng A m m o ni a ( e x M ar i ne ) M e t ha n o l O t h e r Che m i c a l s S t e e l R o ad A v i at i o n M ar i n e R e si de nt i al H e at i ng , Coo k i ng , W at e r S e as o na l St o r ag e Gl o ba l H y dr o g e n El e ct ro y l si s de m a nd 195 1, 837 7,568 0 100 0 200 0 300 0 400 0 500 0 600 0 700 0 800 0 203 0 204 0 205 0 G W i m pl ie d re ne wabl e c ap ac it y P o w e r d e m an d f r o m e l e c t r o l y s i s I m p l i e d R e n e w a b l e ca p a ci t y 40GW El ectrolyser Ins tal led Ca pa city ~ 210 TW h Renew a bl e Po wer Outp ut 80 - 120GW Renew a bl e Ins tal led Ca pa city (e .g. ~60GW so lar + ~40GW o n sh o re wi n d ) ~4.5 mtpa G reen H y dro gen Ou tpu t A v ailab il it y and lo ad f ac t o r s: e . g. A v ailab il it y 97. 5% S o lar LF 20%, O n sh o r e W in d LF 33% E le ctr o ly se r in st alle d ca p ac it y r e q u ir e d N B. Ut il isat io n o f 60% E le ctr o ly se r e f f icie n cy ( 70%) Ut il isat io n ( 60%) H yd r o ge n LH V con v e r sio n ~50 mtCO2 p a Emis s io ns F oo tprint ~ 5 mtpa G rey Hy dro gen Ou tpu t 0.8 QBtu Na tura l G a s F eeds tock ~45 mtpa CCS Requ ired for Blue Hy dro gen U s ing standar d pr oduc t con ver s ion f ac tor s As s uming 70 % N atural G as r efor ming ef f ic ienc y As s umi ng 1 0 tonnes CO2 per t onne H2 As s umi ng ca ptur e r ates of 9 0 % 8 February 2022 Global Themes Monitor 4 Global Renewables Sector Disruptive innovations for Net Zero (Jan-2022) While renewables are bringing about significant changes to the global energy mix, there are several disruptive innovations happening within the renewables space itself. In this global Connections Series report, we focus on some such innovations which are likely to accelerate the global progress in achieving the sustainability goals in energy transition and carbon neutrality. We leverage efforts of multiple global teams and estimate the potential impact of 14 innovations across solar/wind supply chains and what we believe hasn’t been priced in by the market. Renewable energy innovations to pave the road beyond grid-parity: In the past decade, we’ve witnessed dramatic cost reductions in renewables driven by technology improvements, which helped most of the world achieve grid-parity. For the next decade, a new round of innovations already in progress will bring global renewables demand to a new level, by making renewables more economical, efficient and available. With those innovations, we expect solar/wind costs to fall by another 33%/25% by 2025, and global solar/wind annual installation to rise from 165/67GW in 2021 to 386/112GW in 2025. Existing leaders will be strengthened by the innovations: In contrast to some views, we believe disruptive innovations won’t be a threat to existing renewables leaders, because: (1) the next innovation cycle should get prolonged; (2) squeezed margins reduce the incentive and capability of existing capacities’ replacement; and (3) capital and R TOPCon= Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact; HJT= Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin-layer; MBB= Multi Bus bars; MWT= Metal Wrap Through; CdTe= Cadmium Telluride; EBOS= electrical balance of systems W i n d s u p p l y c h a i n Ca r b o n f i b r e ( 20 21 : 9%, 20 25 : 20 %) Ve r ti c al A x i s ( 20 21 : 0%, 20 25 : 1%) M e d i u m - vo l tage I GC T ( 20 21 : 10 %, 2 0 2 5 : 3 0 %) B l ade Pitc h c o nt ro l Gea rb o x Generato r C o nve rt er T u rb i ne T o w er W i nd f arm I n d i vid u al p i tc h ( 2 0 2 1 : 4 0 %, 20 25 : 75 %) S o l a r s u p p l y c h a i n G r a n u l a r si l i c o n ( 20 21 : 4% , 2025: 25 %) L ar ge r w af e r ( 20 21 : 50 %, 20 25 : 95 %) M BB / M WT 20 21 : 25 %, 20 25 : 48 %) N - ty p e w af e r ( 20 21 : 10 %, 20 25 : 20 %) T O P Co n ( 20 21 : 6%, 20 25 : 18 %) A d va n c e d i n ve r te r s ( 2021: 50% , 2025: 80% ) Po l ysil i c o n W afer C ell Mo d u l e So l ar f arm EBO S ( 20 20 : 32 %, 20 23 : 60 %) HJT ( 20 21 : 3%, 20 25 : 19 %) T h i n f i l m - Cd T e ( 20 20 :4%, 20 23 : 5%) T r ac ki n g syste m ( 2 0 2 1 : 3 4 %, 20 25 : 54 %) Alex Liu 852 2101 7115 alex.liu@credit-suisse.com Gary Zhou, CFA 852 2101 6648 gary.zhou@credit-suisse.com 8 February 2022 Global Themes Monitor 5 Figure 13: Global solar cell manufacturing capacity forecast Figure 14: Trends of power output per solar wafer and module Source: Multiple solar cell makers, CPIA, Credit Suisse estimates. BSF= Back Surface Field; PERC=Passivated Emitter and Rear Contact; IBC= Interdigitated Back Contact. Source: PV-Tech, Longi, Zhonghuan, Shangji, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 15: Wind power generation cost reduction to continue Figure 16: Global electricity mix scenarios Source: IRENA, Credit Suisse estimates Source: IEA (2021) World Energy Outlook, Credit Suisse research 255 327 438 511 4 23 55 156 3 11 36 164 - 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 0 1 , 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 E 2 0 2 3 E 2 0 2 5 E (G W ) BS F PER C TO P Co n H J T IBC M WT Oth e rs 403 414 450 540 620 5 .6 5 .8 6. 3 7 .6 1 0 .3 0 .0 2 .0 4 .0 6. 0 8 .0 1 0 .0 1 2 .0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 40 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 M2 (15 6 .7 5 mm) G1 (15 8 .7 5 mm) M6 (16 6 mm) M 1 0 (18 2 mm) G 1 2 (21 0 mm) ( W/ p ie c e )( W) P o we r o u tp u t p e r mo d u le (L HS) P o we r o u tp u t p e r waf e r ( RHS) 0 .0 8 9 0 .0 8 3 0 .0 8 2 0 .0 7 9 0 .0 7 1 0 .0 6 3 0 .0 6 0 0 .0 5 7 0 .0 5 1 0. 04 5 0. 03 9 0 .0 2 9 0 .0 2 0 .0 3 0 .0 4 0 .0 5 0 .0 6 0 .0 7 0 .0 8 0 .0 9 0 .1 0 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 25 E (US$ / kW h ) - 1 0 ,0 00 2 0 ,0 00 3 0 ,0 00 4 0 ,0 00 5 0 ,0 00 6 0 ,0 00 7 0 ,0 00 8 0 ,0 00 20 2 0 An no un c ed Pl ed ge s Sc en ar i o N e t Z e r o Sc en ar i o An no un c ed Pl ed ge s Sc en ar i o N e t Z e r o Sc en ar i o An no un c ed Pl ed ge s Sc en ar i o N e t Z e r o Sc enar i o 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0 T Wh So l a r Wind Other r e new a bl e s N u c l ear H ydr o g e n , fo ss i l f u e l s w i th C C U S U n a b a te d f o ss i l f u e l s 8 February 2022 Global Themes Monitor 6 Figure 17: Summary of the next-generation renewable technology innovations and the key beneficiaries Sector Segment Key technology innovations What is the purpose? Our estimated market share of this tech Key players / beneficiaries Solar Polysilicon Granular silicon Reducing production cost and carbon emission during the production process 2020: 0%, 2021: 4%, 2025: 25% GCL Poly Wafer Larger sized wafer Improving power output and reducing unit power generation cost 2020: 5%, 2021: 50%, 2025: 95% Longi, Zhonghuan, Shangji, Shuangliang, Jingsheng, KBC, Metron N-type wafer Improving a solar cell’s conversion efficiency; Better suitability to various environments 2020: 3%, 2021: 10%, 2025: 20% Longi, Zhonghuan, Jingsheng, Daqo, GCL Poly, Tongwei Cell HJT Improving conversion efficiency and power output; Reducing procedures in the production process 2020: 1%, 2021: 3%, 2025: 19% Tongwei, Longi, Risen Energy Akcome, Canadian Solar, Trina, Meyer Burger, Maxwell Technologies, S.C New Energy Technology TOPCon Improving conversion efficiency and power output; Easier to upgrade existing PERC capacity 2020: 2%, 2021: 6%, 2025: 18% Tongwei, Longi, Jolywood Sunwatt, Zhongli, Jinko, JA Solar, Trina, S.C New Energy Technology Module MBB/MWT Improving a solar module’s conversion efficiency and power output 2020: 10%, 2021: 25%, 2025: 48% Longi, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, Canadian Solar Thin film - CdTe Reducing the dependence on crystalline silicon supply chain; Lower panel degradation 2020: 4%, 2023: 5% First Solar Solar power project Tracking system Improving energy efficiency and power output of the solar system and reducing unit power generation cost 2020: 29%, 2021: 34%, 2025: 54% Array Technologies, Arctech Solar Advanced inverter Providing better feasibility of high voltage and energy storage 2020: 40%, 2021: 50%, 2025: 80% Sungrow Power, Ginlong Technologies, GoodWe, Sineng Electric, Enphase energy, SolarEdge, Generac EBOS Advanced wiring and connectors for faster project construction 2020: 32%, 2023: 60% Shoals Technologies Wind Blade Carbon fibre Can support longer blades as the material is stronger and lighter. 2020: 7%, 2021: 9%, 2025: 20% Toray, Hexcel, Weihai Guangwei Composites Pitch control Individual pitch system Adjusting the pitch of each rotor blade independently from other blades, thus reducing the loads on the wind turbine in blades, hub and tower. 2020: 30%, 2021: 40%, 2025: 70-80% Vestas Converter Medium-voltage converter As power ratings of wind turbines increase, medium- voltage converters become more competitive with low power loss, high efficiency, small size and ease of installation Note: Using global annual solar/wind installation volume to estimate the market shares. 8 February 2022 Global Themes Monitor 7 Glob