2019年 世界银行-碳定价和竞争力高级别委员会的报告（英文）-2019.9-53页.pdf

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized2 Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / the World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness, a group of business leaders and and other eminent leaders from the public sector and academia convened by the Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition (CPLC), was supported by sta! of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / International Development Association / International Finance Corporation (the World Bank Group). It represents the collective views of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness. The CPLC is a voluntary partnership of national and subnational governments, businesses, and civil society organizations that agree to advance the carbon pricing agenda. The CPLC secretariat is administered by the World Bank Group. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed by World Bank Group Sta! or external contributors in this work do not reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Please cite the work as follows: World Bank Group, 2019. Report of the High- Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, the World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: +2- 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design / Cover photo / Design credits: Daniel Martinez | www.danitinez.com COPYRIGHT3 Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness The Commission was supported by the Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition (CPLC), a World Bank Group initiative. The project was managed by Angela Churie Kallhauge under the guidance of John Roome and Alzbeta Klein. The team comprised Janet Peace as lead author and advisor (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES), Daniel Besley, Erika Rhoades, Namrata Patodia Rastogi, and Neeraj Prasad. Support was also provided by Isabel Saldarriaga Arango, Marissa Santikarn, Elizabeth Medb Lewis, Hlazo Mkandawire, Thomas Erb and the team from the World Bank’s Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition (CPLC) Secretariat. Valuable contributions for this report were provided by the Advisory Group of the Commission, by William Acworth (ICAP), Nicolette Bartlett (CDP), Emily Farnworth (World Economic Forum), Dirk Forrister (IETA), Marina Grossi (CEBDS), David Hone (Shell), Nathaniel Keohane (EDF), Helen Mountford (WRI), Steve Nicholls (National Business Initiative, South Africa), Mandy Rambharos (Eskom), Kathleen Rich (Manitoba Sustainable Development), Johan Rockström (Stockholm Resilience Centre), Bob Ward (Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science), and Kelley Kizzier (EDF). The Commission extends its gratitude to BCSD Portugal; Department of Environment, Fisheries and Forestry, South Africa; Eskom; IETA; National Business Initiative, South Africa; Sasol; and Global Compact Network Singapore for their assistance in hosting the regional consultations held in Lisbon, Portugal, in April 2019; Johannesburg, South Africa, in May 2019; and Singapore in June 2019. The Commission would also like to thank all the participants of the regional consultations. The Commission extends their gratitude to the following reviewers from the World Bank Group for their valuable comments and feedback: Jonathan Cooney, Thomas Flochel, Leonardo Iaocovone, Tom Kerr, Gzregorz Peszko, and Marcelo Mena. The report was edited by Clarity Editorial (Cape Town) and the graphic design is by Daniel Martinez (Dani Tinez). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS4 Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness5 Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness CONTENTS ACRONYMS BC British Columbia BCA Border carbon adjustment CAD Canadian Dollar CDP Formerly known as Carbon Disclosure Project CEBDS Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development C2ES Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions CPLC Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition EDF Environmental Defense Fund EITE Emissions-intensive trade-exposed ETS Emissions Trading System EU ETS European Union Emissions Trading System GHG Greenhouse gas ICAP International Carbon Action Partnership IETA International Emissions Trading Association IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NDC Nationally determined contribution PMR Partnership for Market Readiness WRI World Resources Institute The Commission I. Key Findings II. Purpose, Scope and Methodology III. Context and Background IV. International Trade Competitiveness: What are the Concerns and Who is Impacted? V. Policy Solutions VI. Carbon Pricing Benefits to Competitiveness VII. Conclusions References Annexes // 6 // 8 // 10 // 11 // 15 // 20 // 24 // 29 // 31 // 396 Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness THE COMMISSION The potentially adverse impact of carbon pricing on the competitiveness of businesses and economies has been a matter of concern to industry and policymakers. It has also been a barrier to progress on carbon pricing. The Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition launched the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness at its 2018 High-Level Assembly to address the issue. The Commission is co-chaired by Feike Sijbesma, Chairman and CEO of Royal DSM, and Anand Mahindra, Chairman of Mahindra Group. OBJECTIVE The Commission serves as a platform for dialogue among business leaders to explore the evidence base, the concerns of business, and the lessons learned in the design and implementation of carbon pricing policies in the context of competitiveness.7 Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness CO!CHAIRS MEMBERS Anand Mahindra, Chairman, Mahindra Group Feike Sijbesma, Chairman and Chief Executive O“cer, Royal DSM Hakan Hamdi Bulgurlu, Chief Executive O“cer, Arçelik Felipe Calderón, Former President, Mexico; President, Human Sustainable Development Foundation; Honorary Chair, Global Commission on the Economy and Climate Goh Swee Chen, Former Chairman, Shell Companies in Singapore; President, Global Compact Network Singapore Jos Delbeke, Former DG-Climate Action, European Commission; Professor, European University Institute, Florence, and KU Leuven, Belgium Lim Ah Doo, Chairman, Olam International Ltd. Anne M. Finucane, Vice Chairman, Bank of America; Chairman of the Board, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Europe Jean-Sébastien Jacques, Chief Executive O“cer, Rio Tinto Martin Lindqvist, President and Chief Executive O“cer, SSAB AB Marcia Smith, Senior Vice President, Sustainability and External A!airs, Teck Resources Limited Andrew Mackenzie, Chief Executive O“cer and Executive Director and Chairman of the Executive Leadership Team, BHP Group Ltd. Gérard Mestrallet, Honorary Chairman, Engie; Honorary Chairman, Suez Bongani Nqwababa, Joint President and Chief Executive O“cer, Sasol Mari Elka Pangestu, Former Minister of Trade, Indonesia; Professor, University of Indonesia; Board of Trustees, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta; Senior Fellow, Columbia University Mahendra Singhi, Managing Director and Chief Executive O“cer, Dalmia Cement (Bharat) Ltd. Nicholas Stern, IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government; Chairman of the Grantham Research Institute, and Head of the India Observatory, London School of Economics Eirik Wærness, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Equinor8 Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness I. KEY FINDINGS 1. Climate change poses a real threat to our industries and economies and needs to be addressed as a matter of urgency. The cost-e!ective transition to a net zero-carbon economy by the middle of the century is important to avoid the most severe impacts on our climate and to maintain the productivity of our economies. 2. Carbon pricing is an e!ective, flexible, and low-cost approach to reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs). Combined with other policies, carbon pricing can help accelerate and ensure a smooth transition to a low-carbon economy. 3. Carbon pricing is intended to drive a shift away from high-emissions products to low- emissions products and processes. Some firms that compete against these low-emissions substitutes may experience a loss of market share and reduced profits even as others adapt, increase their profitability and develop new business models. 4. Concerns exist that, due to di!erential carbon prices between jurisdictions, there is the potential risk that high-carbon economic activity may move to regions without a carbon price or with a lower price. This could result in decreased profits and job losses. It could also exacerbate political push-back and undermine the intended environmental outcome of reduced GHG emissions. If this “carbon leakage” occurs, it would be a lose-lose: a loss of competitiveness or economic activity without an environmental gain. 5. There is little evidence to date that carbon pricing has resulted in the relocation of the production of goods and services or investment in these products to other countries. This outcome is consistent with the economic literature assessing the competitive impact of environmental regulation more broadly. There may be several reasons for this, including the observation that carbon price levels have generally been moderate and existing programs include protection for at-risk sectors. In addition, tax rates, labor availability, and infrastructure may be more significant to investment decisions regarding location of production than environmental regulations. 6. While competitiveness remains a key concern for policymakers considering a price on carbon, these concerns should not be overstated. Competitive risks exist primarily for highly emissions-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) sectors and jurisdictions that depend on such sectors. These risks can and should be addressed through a suite of locally tailored policy design choices intended to protect industry from unfair international competition even as they ensure that the incentive and support for low-carbon innovation remains. 7. There are a variety of options to address competitiveness risks, including free allocation of emission rights and border measures. However, these should be based on a location- specific, data-driven evaluation of impacts. Once implemented, these measures should be periodically reevaluated to ensure their e!ectiveness and usefulness. To that end, data transparency from industry, at least with government o“cials, is particularly important for assessing how and when intervention is necessary.9 Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness 8. As ambition levels increase to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, two countervailing e!ects may be relevant for competitiveness impacts. On the one hand, greater ambition will generally mean higher carbon price levels leading to the potential for more significant competitiveness impacts for EITE industries. On the other hand, as more countries adopt climate policies and develop linkages between carbon markets, di!erences in carbon prices among countries and regions should become smaller, alleviating competitiveness concerns. 9. Concerns about competitiveness implications should not preclude carbon pricing or keep regions from increasing carbon prices or emission targets over time to levels needed to implement the Paris Agreement, for example as set out in the Stern-Stiglitz report (CPLC 2017), namely $40–$80/tCO#e by 2020 and $50–$100/tCO#e by 2030. 10. Carbon pricing, along with complementary measures, can also drive innovation, investment and substantial growth in some sectors. The investment opportunities that arise from decarbonization are considerable, as is the potential for the development of new industries and innovation within existing ones. Carbon pricing can also generate revenues to further program or national objectives and to support those who might be negatively impacted. 11. Innovation and investment, as well as stable and predictable policies, are crucial to the transition to a low-carbon economy. Policy clarity, with strong governmental commitment to meaningful policy which increases in stringency over time, can help ensure that companies and regions remain competitive in global markets. Furthermore, large mainstream investors are increasingly factoring in the development and implementation of low-carbon strategies when evaluating their portfolios.10 Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness II. PURPOSE, SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY Industry and policymakers considering the introduction of carbon pricing are often concerned that putting a price on carbon in the form of a tax or an emissions trading system may have adverse e!ects on the competitiveness of a carbon-intensive firm, sector, or country. For industry the concern is partially about the low-carbon transition challenge, and partially about the potential for international competitors to have an unfair advantage if they do not face a similar carbon price. While both factors may be significant to the overall competitiveness of a firm, the primary policy focus of most carbon pricing competitiveness discussions is on international competitiveness. This is primarily because of the potential to shift production, investment, and jobs, resulting in non-achievement of the environmental objective. This does not mean that the transition challenge is not significant for some industries, sectors, or regions, but rather that it is not typically thought of as “unfair” or unintentional. Providing an incentive that lowers emissions is the goal of carbon pricing; if emissions are simply moved elsewhere, or “leaked” to a region without similarly stringent climate regulations, that goal is not achieved. An increasingly large body of literature (both peer-reviewed and from industry) has examined the international competitiveness issue, both from