2019年 绿金委-中国碳金融市场研究-2019.5-81页

中国碳金融市场研究 A Study on China s Carbon Finance Market 中国金融学会 绿色金融专业委员会 北京环境交易所 绿金委碳金融工作组 中国碳金融市场研究 A Study on China s Carbon Finance Market 绿金委碳金融工作组 IPB 目 录·············································I 图表目录···········································III 缩略语表···········································IV 摘要·············································1 1 碳金融市场基础研究·····································8 1.1 关于碳金融市场·····································9 1.1.1 背null与概念·····································9 1.1.2 构 成 要 素·····································10 1.1.3 层 次 结 构·····································12 1.2 碳金融市场的定位与作用·································14 1.2.1 碳金融 vs. 碳现货···································14 1.2.2 碳金融 vs. 绿色金融··································15 1.2.3 碳金融 vs. 实体经济··································15 1.3 碳金融市场发展动力机制·································16 1.3.1 碳金融市场的主要驱动因素·······························16 1.3.2 碳金融市场规模评估··································17 1.3.3 碳金融市场发展的评估标准·······························19 1.4 发展碳金融市场的意义··································20 1.4.1 完善碳市场机制····································20 1.4.2 丰富绿色金融体系···································20 1.4.3 争取国际碳定价权···································20 2 国际碳金融市场案例研究 ··································· 21 2.1 欧盟碳市场体系·····································22 2.1.1 主要碳金融产品 ··································· 22 2.1.2 欧盟碳市场结构····································24 2.1.3 主要碳交易平台····································25 2.1.4 欧盟碳市场表现····································26 2.2 伦敦碳金融中心·····································28 2.2.1 英国碳市场发展历程··································28 2.2.2 碳金融中心伦敦····································28 2.2.3 伦敦碳金融市场主要参与者及其诉求····························29 2.3 欧洲碳金融市场监管···································30 2.3.1 欧盟政策法规·····································30 2.3.2 欧盟监管框架·····································32 2.3.3 英国政策法规·····································33 目录 IIIII 2.3.4 英国碳金融市场监管··································34 2.4 欧盟碳金融市场的成就与局限·······························35 2.4.1 主要成就·······································35 2.4.2 问题与挑战······································36 2.4.3 发展前null·······································37 3 中国碳金融市场现状研究···································39 3.1 政策发展历程······································39 3.1.1 我国的碳约束目标···································39 3.1.2 碳交易政策的演进···································39 3.2 碳现货市场发展现状···································41 3.2.1 配额市场：七省市碳交易试点进展····························41 3.2.2 项目市场：CCER···································45 3.2.3 项目市场：林业碳汇··································47 3.3 碳金融市场创新实践···································49 3.3.1 碳金融创新背null····································49 3.3.2 碳金融产品谱系····································50 3.3.3 主要创新实践·····································52 3.3.4 主要产品的市场前null··································55 3.4 试点碳市场的成就与不足·································59 3.4.1 主要成就·······································59 3.4.2 局限与不足······································61 4 中国碳金融市场未来展望···································62 4.1 全国碳市场建设进展···································63 4.2 主要挑战········································63 4.2.1 近期挑战：如何确保全国碳市场如期启动并顺利运行？···························62 4.2.2 中期挑战：如何提升碳金融市场的配置效率和运行效率？···························63 4.2.3 长期挑战：碳金融市场如何引导低碳发展、引领国际合作？···························64 4.3 未来展望········································65 4.3.1 一体化的碳市场····································65 4.3.2 金融化的碳市场····································65 4.3.3 国际化的碳市场····································66 5 发展中国碳金融市场的政策建议································68 5.1 关于一级市场建设····································68 5.2 关于二级市场建设····································68 5.3 关于协同监管框架····································69 参考文献···········································70 IIIII 图表目录 图 1-1 全球目前主要的碳定价区 图 1-2 碳金融市场的层次结构 图 1-3 碳金融市场的主要驱动因素 图 1-4 全球碳金融市场的历史走势 图 1-5 碳市场发展的评估标准 图 2-1 2014 年欧洲碳交易所市场份额 图 2-2 2008-2015 年 EUA 一级市场和二级市场表现 图 2-3 EUA 期货成交量和价格 图 2-4 英国碳预算目标下的政策组合 图 2-5 欧盟 28 国温室气体排放与经济发展状况 图 3-1 中碳指数历史走势 图 3-2 CCER 项目开发流程 图 3-3 碳金融产品 / 工具分类 图 3-4 碳基金的一般管理模式 图 3-5 碳托管的一般运作模式 图 3-6 碳金融产品市场前null综合评估 表 1-1 碳金融市场的主要利益相关方 表 1-2 碳市场连接的主要形式 表 2-1 EU-ETS 三阶段管控范围 表 2-2 欧洲市场近期发行的主要绿色债券 表 2-3 欧洲主要碳基金 表 2-4 欧盟碳交易平台发展概况 表 2-5 欧盟主要碳交易平台的碳金融交易产品 表 2-6 关于 EU ETS 的主要法规 表 2-7 适用于碳市场监管的欧盟金融市场主要法规 表 2-8 英国应对气候变化的政策法规 表 3-1 中国气候变化及碳市场相关政策 表 3-2 全国七省市碳排放权交易试点初始机制设计比较 表 3-3 七省市碳抵消市场需求 表 3-4 期权的基本要素 表 3-5 试点碳市场主要碳金融创新 表 3-6 碳金融产品市场前null评估模型 表 3-7 需求度分析 表 3-8 风险度分析 表 3-9 发育度分析 表 3-10 全国碳市场碳配额现货交易规模预测 表 3-11 全国碳市场 CCER 现货交易规模预测 表 3-12 全国碳市场碳金融交易规模预测 表 3-13 全国碳融资市场规模预测 VIV Anti-MLD Anti-Money Laundering Directive 反洗钱指令 BEA Beijing Emission Allowance 北京碳排放配额 BEIS Department for Business, Energy but not so much on the cultivation and perfection of a market that takes ‘trading’ as core element. The reason for that is simple and clear, as western carbon markets, in particular EU ETS, which is the largest-scaled, most regulated and mature carbon market in the world, were all established in a highly advanced financial market, thus, financialization has been realized at the very beginning of the establishment of these markets. However, China’s financial market is not mature and still in development. Therefore, two fundamental tasks will be faced in the establishment of China’s carbon markets: the first is to establish and perfect an ETS from scratch, which is also the primary goal for the seven piloting programs and the establishment of a national ETS; the second is to incorporate financing in the cultivation and perfection of trading market, so that ETS can work better and carbon price can truly provide guidance in energy saving, emission reduction and low-carbon investment. In April, 2016, Beijing Environment Exchange took the lead to set up a Green Finance Carbon Finance Group under the guidance of the Green Finance Committee, China Society for Finance 2. typical international cases, including EU ETS and London Carbon Finance Market, were studied and analyzed; 3. carbon financial market development in China was discussed mainly based on the seven piloting programs and efforts in carbon financial innovation; 4. prospects for future trends and main challenges of carbon financial market in China was made; 5. Relevant polices and proposals for backing up development of carbon financial market in China were given based on the above research works. (1) Fundamental theories. Carbon financial market is now a mainstream of carbon market development in the west, and the main goal of the future for carbon market development in China. Various carbon finance tools, including trading tools (carbon futures, carbon forward, carbon swap, carbon share options and so forth), financing tools (carbon pledge, carbon buyback and carbon collocation, etc.) and support tools (carbon exponent and carbon insurance etc.), which were developed mainly based on two types of basic carbon assets, namely the carbon credit and the project emissions reduction, are helpful for participators to better manage carbon assets, providing them with diversified trading means, improving marketing fluidity and achieve risk hedging in future price Executive Summary 摘要EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 65 fluctuation. The hierarchical structure of carbon market incorporates ETS at macroscopic level and secondary market, financial service market and supporting service market at microscopic level. Among which, the secondary market is the core. It is divided into floor trading and OTC, while the primary market serves as a transitional part between the macroscopic and microscopic structures. Maturity of the development of carbon financial market can be weighed from the perspective of market efficiency, including efficiency of resource allocation and of marketing operation. Efficiency of resource allocation includes the validity and stability of carbon price, while efficiency of marketing operation includes marketing fluidity and authority of carbon price. Development of carbon finance market is of important significance for perfecting carbon market mechanism, enriching green financial system and striving for international carbon pricing rights. In international carbon markets, though spot goods are the basis for trading, carbon futures are key, because the trading volume of carbon futures outweighs carbon spot by over 30 folds. (2) EU carbon financial market. The EU ETS had 9 main trading institutions including European Climate Exchange (“ECX”) for floor trading and OTC. By 2014, only 4 of them retained carbon trading business after market integration. London has rapidly grew into a center of carbon finance in UK and Europe as it successfully rounded up main financial investment institutions in Europe or even in the whole world: in terms of floor trading, ICE-ECX accounts for 92.9% shares of the primary and secondary markets, most of the trading are for futures; in terms of OTC, the turnover of London Energy Brokers Association (“LEBA”) accounts for over 50% of the trading in EU. Other than policies and regulations for carbon trading, the carbon markets in the EU are also in administration of relevant regulations for financial market such as Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (“MiFID”), Market Abuse Directive (“MAD”), Anti-Money Laundering Directive (“Anti-MLD”), Transparency Directive (“TD”) and so forth. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), together with Climate Action of the European Commission has drawn up drafts on technological proposals and standards for further executional management of MAD and MiFID, having them put into practice at the levels of carbon industry, financial industry and trading platform among member countries. Taking UK as instance, other than supervision from the former Department of Energy and Climate Change (“DECC”) at industry level, London Carbon Finance Market also gets supervision from Bank of England, financial regulation departments and HM Treasury, etc. Meanwhile, trading platforms also play an important role in daily supervision of trading activities in market. Carbon financial markets in London have grabbed significant achievements in over 10 years of development. It has regulated and matured market regulations, and obtains significant international influence. However, inordinate credit distribution and stiff decision-making mechanisms have resulted in imbalanced supply and demand; malfunctions such as long-term slack or even collapsed carbon price also exist in the EU’s carbon markets; in the meanwhile, EU carbon markets also confronted with issues such as fraud of added-value tax and “phishing attacks”, etc. All these issues should arouse high attention during the establishment of carbon financial market in China. (3) Current situation of carbon financial markets in China. To tackle increasingly severe environmental challenges, implementation of piloting programs for carbon emission trade and establishment of a national emissions trading system have become into an important part in construction of the ecological civilization system since the issue of the Twelfth Five- Year Plan. In September, 2015, President Xi Jinping made an official announcement in the China-U.S. Joint Presidential Statement on Climate Change that the national ETS that covers six major key industries including steel, electricity, chemical industry, building 摘要 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 65 materials, paper-making and nonferrous metals will be launched in 2017. In January, 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement on preparation and mobilization, to ensure the launching of national emissions right trading and the implementation of carbon emission rights trading mechanism in 2017. In October, 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission approved seven piloting programs in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen, which have successively initiated trading in the late half year of 2013. By June 30, 2016, accumulated trading volume of carbon credit in the seven piloting carbon markets has reached 109.8342 million tons, with an accumulative transaction of 2994.4843 million Yuan reached and CCER emission reductions surpassed 63 million tons. In the past three years since launching, the seven piloting carbon markets have obtained significant achievements, with marketing mechanism successfully set up and run and pricing mechanism gradually perfected. However, serious limitations such as pristine trading means, deficiency in fluidity and shortage of risk management tools, etc., were also found. In order to spur carbon asset management and activate carbon market trading, a lot of carbon financial innovations, covering various main tools except carbon futures, were made in the piloting programs. In terms of four key indicators, namely labor force, demand, risk and development, it is suitable to introduce in carbon financial products such as carbon futures, carbon forwards, carbon bonds and carbon funds, etc. If relevant carbon financial trading tools can be introduced after 2017, the trading volume may reach minimally 60-80 billion Yuan and moderately 417-556 billion Yuan; after 2020, it may reach minimally 100 to 120 billion Yuan, moderately 695 to 834 billion Yuan, and maximally 3750 to 4500 billion Yuan. (4) Prospect of carbon financial markets in China. A national unified carbon market is expected for both China and other countries. It is expected to set up reasonable carbon price, guide investment in clean energy, spur low carbon industry development, guide international low-carbon industrial cooperation and tackle with global climate changes in joint force. The future China Carbon Market will become into an integrated and financialised international carbon market to achieve these objectives, but it will face a series of challenges in this process: in terms of recent challenge, how to ensure punctual launching and successful implementation of the national carbon market; in terms of mid-term challenge, how to improve efficiencies in configuration and operation of the carbon financial market? In terms of long-term challenge, how to enable the carbon financial market to guide low-carbon development and international cooperation? Policy proposals. In order to solve these problems and spur sustainable, stable and sound development of carbon financial market in China, this report puts forward the following policy proposals. (1) On establishment of primary markets. It is suggested to control credit distribution, gradually introduce in paid distribution such as auction, so as to activate the carbon market pricing mechanism from fundamental supply and demand. In terms of CCER supply and regulation, it is suggested to develop a carbon market forecasting model and work out guidance for project development, so as to promote a balanced supply-demand relationship, while maintaining stable prediction of all part