央行货币政策应对气候变化的历史教训报告Every-Avenue-Available

EVERY AVENUE AVAILABLE LESSONS FROM MONETARY HISTORY FOR TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE Rens van Tilburg and Aleksandar Simić February 2021 “I WANT TO EXPLORE EVERY AVENUE AVAILABLE IN ORDER TO COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE” Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, July 2020 E v e r y Av e n u e Av a i l a b l e S u s t a i n a b l e F i n a n c e L a b 2 E v e r y Av e n u e Av a i l a b l e S u s t a i n a b l e F i n a n c e L a b E v e r y Av e n u e Av a i l a b l e S u s t a i n a b l e F i n a n c e L a b 3 Utrecht, February 2021. The Sustainable Finance Lab (SFL https://sustainablefinancelab.nl/en) is an academic think tank whose members are mostly professors from different universities in the Netherlands. The aim of the SFL is a stable and robust financial sector that contributes to an economy that serves humanity without depleting its environment. To this end the SFL develops ideas and provides a platform to discuss them, thus bridging science and practice. This paper has been drafted by Rens van Tilburg, Director of the Sustainable Finance Lab at Utrecht University (r.vantilburg@uu.nl) and Aleksandar Simić, researcher of the SFL. The authors wish to thank Roben Kloosterman for his excellent research support and Alexander Barkawi, Simon Dikau, Maarten Kavelaars, Jens van ‘t Klooster, Cormac Petit, Rick van der Ploeg, Dirk Schoenmaker and Roland Uittenbogaard for their comments. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of all members of the Sustainable Finance Lab. This paper was commissioned by the Council on Economic Policies and supported by the European Climate Foundation. Insufficient action to limit climate change The costs of runaway climate change are much higher than those of limiting it. Despite this, we still do not see the political action and coordination — globally — that is required to curb climate change. Climate change is a threat to price stability Climate change will have monetary consequences and seems to be incompatible with price stability. The eco- nomic damage of climate change can be of the order of magnitude of the most disruptive and damaging wars. These were periods of high, or even hyperinflation in some countries. Preventing climate change is within the central bank mandate Such severe monetary consequences mean central bankers have a duty to act. To help prevent climate change, as this is a prerequisite for price stability in the medium to long term. Other reasons for monetary policymakers to act are the climate risks that a central bank wants its balance sheet protected from and the secondary objectives that most central banks have, among which environmental protection. Central bankers are uniquely positioned to contribute to mitigating climate change Monetary policymakers are uniquely positioned to support the necessary long-term climate mitigation efforts of governments. They have a long history of international KEY TAKEAWAYS E v e r y Av e n u e Av a i l a b l e S u s t a i n ab l e F i n an c e L ab 4 cooperation, have closely aligned mandates and have much longer tenures than their respective governments. Central banks have performed similar tasks successfully in the past Central bankers, historically, have been instrumental in co-financing economic development efforts of a similar scale and time span as the climate mitigation challenge. For example, in the USA during the New Deal and in many countries after World War II. Monetary support for such reconstruction and industrialization efforts have not led to excessively high inflation. Central banks need to formulate a common long-term strategy In response to the recent and current economic crisis central banks have adopted new forms of unconventional monetary policy. These should specifically support investments in the global energy transition. The energy transition however, will not be realized during one eco- nomic downturn. For that reason, in support of government policies, monetary policymakers should formulate a common long-term global strategy to avoid a runaway climate change that could place price stability out of reach. They need to explore every avenue available to reach the related objectives of stable prices and a stable global climate. E v e r y Av e n u e Av a i l a b l e S u s t a i n a b l e F i n a n c e L a b 5 p. 7 p. 10 p. 11 p. 12 12 13 p. 15 15 17 20 21 23 p. 25 25 26 29 32 34 p. 35 35 37 38 41 45 p. 47 p. 49 E v e r y Av e n u e Av a i l a b l e S u s t a i n ab l e F i n an c e L ab 6 Summary List of abbreviations 1. Introduction 2. The nature and origin of central banks The nature of central banks The origin of central banks 3. Financiers of emergency responses Children of war 1668–1900 World Wars I and II Wars seem incompatible with price stability Central banks’ response to natural disasters Central banks’ response to epidemics 4. Guardians of stability Stabilizing the currency: ending free banking Stabilizing commercial banks: lender of last resort Stabilizing the economy: rebuilding after World War II Stabilizing the financial sector through money creation Conclusion: extending their role to safeguard stability 5. The monetary response to climate change The challenge of climate change Central bankers and climate change: the current situation Climate change and the tactics of monetary policy The historical perspective on climate change as a monetary question Conclusion: central bankers, globally, need to make a common developmental effort 6. Historical lessons for a monetary response to climate change Literature CONTENTS Back to Contents The monetary response to climate change: a historical perspective Climate change impacts the global economy and will do so increasingly in the years ahead. Central bankers agree that both physical risks of climate change and energy transition risks are material to the stability of financial institutions and the wider financial system. That said, climate change has not, so far, been taken into account in setting the monetary policies of Western central banks. That may change this year at the European Central Bank (ECB) as its current monetary Strategy Review has established a working stream on climate. ECB president Lagarde stated that she wants “to explore every avenue available in order to combat climate change”. This paper contributes to that exploration by discussing the historical role of monetary policy in society. We do this to establish which lessons can be learnt in determining an appropriate response to the challenges of climate change. We discuss how, throughout history, thinking has developed about what central banks are and what they should do: what aims they have had and which instruments they have used to pursue these aims. We look in particular at periods of turmoil and crisis: wars, epidemics, natural disasters, as well as financial and economic crises. We discuss how the challenges of climate change compare, and which monetary policy responses may be warranted. The twin objectives of central banks Although the term ‘central bank’ was coined only in the 19 th century, and the oldest central banks still in operation were only created in the late 17 th century, (semi-)public institutions have been performing roles we now associate with central banking from the moment larger civili- zations came into existence. Two objectives can be identified that such institutions have been expected to realize: 1. Ensuring there is enough currency to serve society’s needs; 2. Protecting the stability of the currency and, increasingly, the wider financial and economic system. SUMMARY E v e r y Av e n u e Av a i l a b l e S u s t a i n ab l e F i n an c e L ab 7 Providing the currency Most central banks were founded primarily for the first reason, as ‘banks of issue’: to provide the sovereign with financial means beyond borrowing and taxation. Often this was for the purpose of war, as when the Bank of England helped finance war against France in the late 17th century. Central banks have also helped to overcome natural disasters, as the Bank of Japan did after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami. Most recently we have seen how central banks in many countries helped in funding support measures during the lockdowns due to Covid-19. Stabilizing the currency Central banks’ second objective is guarding the stability of the currency. Price stability, however, requires financial and economic stability. This has led central banks to expand their activities beyond the mere mo- netary sphere, to enabling real world economic changes. Central banks are now the ‘lender of last resort’, the backstop of banks and, increasingly, other financial institutions. The Bank of England has assumed this role during the crises that plagued the financial system almost every decade from 1760 onwards. After WWII the stabilizing role of central banks in most countries extended to the whole economy. They were given the tasks of economic development and maintaining full employment. These efforts have mostly yielded economies with strong growth, full employment and only moderate inflation. In more recent times, central banks have used their money creating powers to stabilize the global financial system through a series of ‘quantitative easing’ programs. Fierce discussions have arisen over the legality of these measures — especially in relation to the ECB. The European Court of Justice, however, concluded that the ECB’s purchasing program “does not go manifestly beyond what is necessary to achieve the objectives it pursues” (Court of Justice of the European Union, 2015). The monetary challenge of climate change The economic costs of climate warming beyond two degrees can be tens of percentage points of national income. The two world wars are among the few recorded historical events that had a similar global impact. Both were followed by periods of high and hyperinflation. E v e r y Av e n u e Av a i l a b l e S u s t a i n a b l e F i n a n c e L a b 8 Back to Contents So, if safeguarding price stability is the primary objective, limiting climate change would be a necessary precondition. The costs of runaway climate change are much higher than the costs of mitigating climate change (estimated at 1-3 percent of global GDP). While substantial, the costs of mitigation are manageable. Both the scale and time span of mitigation are comparable to the development and reconstruction co-financed by central banks, supported through monetary policies before and after World War II. Despite international agreements on climate change, political action to limit climate change is insufficient. It requires international coordina- tion between countries with widely differing financial means and climate vulnerabilities. Unlike in a war, there is no clear enemy in sight. Unlike in a natural disaster, the damage done is not (yet) clearly visible. When a ‘Pearl Harbor moment’ arrives and galvanizes the political will to act, it may be too late. Monetary policymakers are particularly well positioned to play a more active role in limiting climate change, supporting government policies in this field. They have long and intensive histories of global cooperation. Central bank mandates are much more aligned than the mandates of their governments. And central bankers have much longer tenures than politicians. Importantly, central banks also have unique and powerful instruments to support economic and financial development. Instruments that historically have been used for the common good when needed. Towards a common long-term strategy Central banks are currently exploring and using new forms of monetary- fiscal coordination. These need to be focused more specifically on supporting the global energy transition to curb climate change. Energy transition will not be realized during one economic downturn — that takes longer. For that reason, and to support government efforts, monetary policymakers need to formulate a common long-term global strategy to mitigate climate change and avoid runaway climate change where price stability may no longer be within reach. Throughout history central banks have gone ‘every avenue available’ to help societies meet the challenges of their times. Now, central banks need to agree on a common course to safeguard the closely related objectives of stable prices and a stable global climate. E v e r y Av e n u e Av a i l a b l e S u s t a i n a b l e F i n a n c e L a b 9 Back to Contents Back to Contents LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ABSPP Asset-Backed Securities Purchase Programme BACEN Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil) BIS Bank for International Settlements BoE Bank of England BoJ Bank of Japan CBPP Covered Bond Purchase Programme CSPP Corporate Sector Purchase Programme DNB Dutch Central Bank (De Nederlandsche Bank) ECB European Central Bank ECJ European Court of Justice GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product IDB Industrial Development Bank IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LoLR Lender of Last Resort MEFO Metal Research Company (Metallforschungsgesellschaft) MERS Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome NGFS Network for Greening the Financial System OMT Outright Monetary Transactions PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving) PEPP Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme PSPP Public Sector Purchase Programme QE Quantitative Easing RFC Reconstruction Finance Corporation SARS Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SMP Securities Markets Program UNEP United Nations Environment Programme US(A) United States (of America) VOC Dutch East India Company (Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie) WWI World War One WWII World War Two E v e r y Av e n u e Av a i l a b l e S u s t a i n ab l e F i n an c e L ab 10 Back to Contents Climate change and monetary policy There will be no ‘business as usual’ scenario for the global economy in the coming decades. Either the average global temperature will exceed the threshold of one and a half to two degrees Celsius, or the economy will be fundamentally reorganized in order to prevent this from happening. Both scenarios will have profound consequences for the economy, and therefore, for financiers (IPCC, 2018a; Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures [TCFD], 2018). These scenarios provide opportunities as well as risks, with the overall costs to the economy being much higher in scenarios where climate change exceeds two degrees (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency [PBL], 2014; Stern, 2007). Central bankers agree that both the physical risks of climate change and energy transition risks are material to the stability of financial institutions and the wider financial system (Network for Greening the Financial System [NGFS], 2019). However, despite initial explorations of the topic, climate change so far has not been taken into account in the monetary policies of Western central banks (Bolton et al