超越2℃⸺国际城市应对气候变化中长期减排行动英文版

1 Beyond 2℃ This report was written in cooperation with the following organization © Zichuan Han / https://unsplash.com/ — The Long-Term Emission Reduction Actions of Global Cities in Response to Climate Change innovative Green Development Program
iGDP
 innovative Green Development Program (registered name: Beijing Green Partnership Consulting Company Limited) is a non-profit policy and strategy consultancy that focuses on green and low-carbon development. It works to strengthen China’s low-carbon environmental policy design and implementation through interdisciplinary, systematic, and empirical policy research. iGDP works with a range of different stakeholders to promote a zero-emissions future and tell the story of China s green and low-carbon development. innovative Green Development Program was initiated by Energy Foundation China. It is the secretariat of China’s Green and Low-Carbon Development Think Tank Partnership, sits on China’s Green Finance Association Experts Committee, and is a member of the North-East Asian Subregional Programme for Environmental Cooperation’s Low Carbon City Platform. innovative Green Development Program’s research, consulting and communications focus on the following areas: Macro-Level Climate Policy Urban Green and Low-Carbon Transformation Green Economic Policy Behavioral Change WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature) WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature) is one of the world’s largest and most respected independent organizations dedicated to the conservation of nature. Since the first office was founded in Switzerland in 1961, WWF has grown into a global network active in more than 100 countries with almost five million supporters. WWF has been active in China since 1980, when it was invited by the Chinese government as the first international NGO to work on nature conservation. The Beijing office opened in 1996, and there are now 8 additional field programme offices spread across China. WWF has more than 120 staff working in China on a broad range of conservation programmes including species, freshwater, forest, marine, climate change and energy, the green economy and footprint. Authors Acknowledgements We are thankful for the insights provided by Mr. Tian Zhiyu (Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission), Dr. Yanghui (Tsinghua University). We would also like to thank the following collogues at iGDP for their insights: Mrs. HU Min, Dr. Yang Li, Dr. Chen Meian, Mr. Diego Montero and supports from the interns at iGDP Ben Abraham, Han Yueying. Suggested quotation: LI Ang, and exclude industries not controlled by cities (such as power generation). Promoting emission reduction targets in these industries is a top priority that is often matched by an increase in economic incentives and support policies. Policies and actions in different cities have certain common characteristics: power industries focus on reducing fossil energy and increasing renewable energy; transportation industries mainly adopt electric vehicles (EVs), promote low-carbon fuel substitution, or develop public transportation systems; buildings industries improve energy efficiency standards and increase the electrification rate; waste management industries improve the recycling rate, increases the sorting ratio, and reduce the amount of landfill waste. 2 1 At present, there is no scientific definition of “Climate Action Plan”. A “Climate Action Plan“ in this report refers to the guiding documents used to deal with climate change within a certain time scale. In general, the planning content includes the current status of urban greenhouse gas emissions, targets, implementation paths, measures and actions, and required resources. Cities make plans according to their own conditions and the names of planning documents are often also different. Beyond 2¥ — The Long-Term Emission Reduction Actions of Global Cities in Response to Climate Change The report finds that cities that have proposed deep emission reduction or carbon neutrality targets set more ambitious standards and policy targets. The report distinguishes between existing policies and deep emission reduction or near-zero-emission measures. Cities apply economic incentives and support policies under both scenarios. The report concludes with case studies in industry-related and city-wide carbon reduction actions. For the industry case studies, cities with outstanding performance were selected from the four major emission areas of buildings, transportation, energy, and waste. The city case studies take a close look at factors such as level of economic development, quality of emission reduction commitments, and city scale. The case studies focus on target setting and highlight policy measures to provide a reference for Chinese cities. The information in this report was gathered from open sources. Given language and other possible limitations, it may not provide a full picture of city actions. 3 2. Research Background Climate change poses a danger to social development and economic growth. Estimates of global annual GDP loss caused by climate change range from 0.5% and 20%. 2 The Stern Review concluded that if no action is taken, the losses caused by climate change could account for 5%-20% of global GDP. 3 The 2020 Global Risk Report released by the World Economic Forum in January 2020 ranked the failure to deal with climate change as the biggest risk facing the global economy. 4 The Paris Agreement, which went into force in November 2016, states that “the global average temperature rise should be kept well below 2¥ above pre-industrial levels, and efforts should be made to limit the temperature rise to 1.5¥ above pre-industrial levels“. Limiting the temperature rise at 2¥ means that emissions in 2050 should be reduced by 40-70% compared with 2010, while controlling the temperature rise at 1.5¥ means that, before 2030, global annual emissions will need to be reduced by 45% from 2010, reaching net zero around 2050. 5 “Long-term Low Emission Strategies“ describe the long-term emission reduction efforts of the parties of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement invited all parties to report to the Convention Secretariat their long-term low-emission strategies by 2020. The objective is to motivate deep global emission reduction and bridge the gap between the Agreement’s ambitious target and existing emission paths. At present, 59 countries have expressed their intention to submit an intensified climate action plan (or Nationally Determined Contribution), and another 11 countries have already started an internal action process 6 to raise emission reduction targets 2 IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. Stern, N. (2007). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511817434 Bierbaum, R., Fay, M., Scope 2 refers to indirect energy-related emissions occurring outside the city s jurisdiction, mainly including emissions from secondary energy sources such as power, heating and/or refrigeration purchased to meet the city s consumption; Scope 3 refers to other indirect emissions caused by activities within the city and generated outside the jurisdiction but not covered by Scope 2, such as greenhouse gas emissions from the production, transportation, use and waste disposal of all items purchased by the city from outside its jurisdiction. 26 Due to the better monitoring of construction, energy, and other activities, and strong mobility of the transportation sector, some cities only account for urban greenhouse gas emissions in Scopes 1 and 2 in order to avoid double counting. Forty-one cities accounted for emissions in Scope 3. According to the GPC guidelines, emissions that must be included in Scope 3 include: emissions from loss of power transmission and distribution, transboundary solid waste treatment, transboundary wastewater treatment, transboundary water transportation, and aviation. Emissions from purchasing food, building raw materials, 10 Building and transportation are the main emission sources in cities Beyond 2¥ — The Long-Term Emission Reduction Actions of Global Cities in Response to Climate Change etc. are not required to be included. Therefore, only a few cities have calculated the implied emissions from building materials, food purchases, and other purchased products. As consumers of major products, the non-local emissions brought by the industrial chain in cities may be far greater than the emissions within its initial scope. The calculation of emissions within Scope 3 is helpful to further clarify the role of cities in greenhouse gas emission reduction and identify more effective emission reduction measures. After analyzing the emission inventories of all cities in the latest year, we found that the major emission areas of the Willing Cities are buildings and transportation, with the median of buildings emissions accounting for 55% and transportation for 29%, and that the sum of the two exceeds 80% of the overall emissions of the city. However, due to differences in industrial structure, energy structure or resource endowment, Willing Cities have relatively large differences in emissions in the industrial field, especially in the energy conversion process. In addition, in areas with relatively developed agriculture (e.g. Auckland), agricultural emissions must be taken into account. Among the cities with inventory reports, 13 cities have a method of inventory preparation and started to compile an inventory in the same year. The same analysis was made for the inventories defined by the same emission boundaries in the same year for these 13 cities. The results are shown in Figure 6. It can be seen that the industries with the highest emissions are still buildings and transportation, and the sum of the two still accounts for nearly 80% of total emissions in these cities. 11 Figure 5. Emissions from Willing Cities (outer circle: list of 55 cities; inner circle: emission inventory of 13 cities in same year) Buildings Transportation Industry Water Waste and Garbage Leakage 29.00% 29% 16% 48% 11.5% 4.00% 1.14% 55.00% 3% 1% Beyond 2¥ — The Long-Term Emission Reduction Actions of Global Cities in Response to Climate Change Judging from these results, the current emission situation of the Willing Cities is quite different from that of Chinese cities. Therefore, in the process of benchmarking, more attention should be paid to factors such as inventory compilation method, emission boundaries, and industrial structure within the administrative boundary of the city to fully understand the emission situation of the city. Of course, for the buildings and transportation domains specifically, benchmarking analysis based on industrial sectors between Willing Cities and similar cities in China can still serve as a useful reference for analyzing emission trends and the emission reduction potential in related industries of Chinese cities. 6. Climate Mitigation Targets of Committed Cities Commitment to climate goals not only reflects the leadership of cities concerning climate issues but can also drive the actions of other cities. Among the 88 Willing Cities, 66 cities have promised clear climate targets, hence they are called Committed Cities here. The public information they have made available makes it possible to analyze their targets and level of ambition. The targets set by these cities in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) types, target year, the formality of target, etc., are all different. By analyzing their contents we can have a better understanding of the respective strengths and progressiveness of their commitments. This in turn can promote comparison and exchange between Chinese and non-Chinese cities, and provide reference for Chinese cities to set ambitious medium- and long-term emission reduction commitments. The methodology for evaluating the ambition of a stated emission reduction includes index definition, data collection, and scoring for said target. In the index definition stage, we mainly refer to the climate change targets in national and city-level planning and the target setting of the 66 Committed Cities in this study. We divide the index into primary and secondary indicators, of which the primary indicators are: GHG types, target year, formal degree of commitment, whether there is a plan, and whether carbon offset and aviation emissions are included. The secondary indicators are set according to the content of urban planning targets under the corresponding primary indicators. The secondary indicators set scores according to the ambition or difficulty of emission reduction. By default, the weight of different indicators is equal. The indicators without publicly available information get a score of zero. The sum of all indicators is the total score of the city. The higher the score, the more ambitous a city s goal is. A full score is 15 points. The Specific indicators and scores are shown in the table below. 13 Table 1 Committed Cities Target Setting Evaluation Index Framework and Score Factor GHGs CO2 NA 2 1 0 3 2 1 0 3 2 1 0 Before 2050 2050 Deep emission reduction The progressiveness of a city s commitment is determined by their performance in the above 6 primary indicators. Specifically, if a city s actions cover all greenhouse gases, do not consider carbon offsets, take aviation emissions under control, have a target year that is earlier than 2050, and the commitment has been promulgated by the government and is supported by practical planning documents, then the city s commitment is considered to be maximally ambitious. The city actions of Stockholm, which has the highest total score, cover all greenhouse gases, the target year for achieving carbon-neutrality is 2040 (and has become the government s official commitment), a long-term plan has been drawn up, and the plan includes controlling aviation emissions. Lisbon, by contrast has actions that cover only CO2 and aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The city council has already adopted this target, but it is not clear whether it will call for controlling aviation emissions. The report considers Stockholm s commitment to be more progressive. Fig. 6 shows the list of top 20 cities with advanced targets. The contents of Committed Cities, targets show that an advanced target has the following characteristics: Indicator Score Factor Indicator Score There is a plan In the process of making a plan There is no plan 3 2 1 0 2 1 2 1 0 Beyond 2¥ — The Long-Term Emission Reduction Actions of Global Cities in Response to Climate Change Emission reduction gas type Plan is formulated Does it include carbon offs