全文 | 欧洲太阳能协会：2020-2024年全球光伏市场展望

Supported by: Global Market Outlook For Solar Power / 2020 - 2024Caption to image. © SPE GET.invest is supported by Mobilising Investments in Emerging Markets Picture credits © GIZ / Cordula Kropke www.get-invest.eu @GET_invest GET.invest MARKET INFORMATION We provide financiers, project and business developers with critical market intelligence for informed decisions. ACCESS TO FINANCE GET.invest’s Finance Catalyst delivers advisory services for the preparation of decentralised renewable energy projects and connects your business to financiers. NETWORKING Subrahmanyam Pulipaka, National Solar Energy Federation of India (NSEFI); Takeaki Masukawa, Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPEA); JosØ Donoso, Unión Espaæola Fotovoltaica (UNEF); Steve Blume, Smart Energy Council; Artem Semenyshyn, Solar Energy Association of Ukraine (ASEU); Bernhard Strohmayer, German Association of Market Innovators (BNE); Chang Sik Son Peter Molengraaf Rodrigo Lopes Sauaia Mexican Association of Solar Energy (ASOLMEX); Gurmeet Kaur John van Zuylen, African Solar Industry Association (AFSIA); Jean-Jacques Ngono, Finergreen; Karsten Schlageter, ABO Wind; James Osborne, Cecilia Bergamasco Akuo Energy; GET .invest; GIZ; Premier Solar Group; Solarcentury; Voltalia; AEA (AL); CADER (AR); Armenian Energy Agency Foundation (AM); PV AUSTRIA (AT); EDORA APSTE (BG); CANSIA (CA); ACESOL (CL); SER-COLOMBIA (CO); OIE (HR); SolÆrní Asociace (CZ); European Energy (DK); LUT University (FI); SER-Solaire (FR); BSW-Solar (DE); HELAPCO (GR); MANAP (HU); ISEA (IE); GEA-IL (IL); ANIE Rinnovabili EDAMA SPAQ (KZ); KEREA (KE); ALME (LB); LSEA (L T); ILR (LU); NSEC (NO); Jerusalem Energy (PS); PV POLAND (PL); APREN (PT); RPIA (RO); PV RUSSIA (RU); ZSFV (SI); SAPVIA (ZA); Svensk Solenergi (SE); Swissolar (CH); TPVIA (TW); GÜNDER (TK); STA (GB); Energia Solar (UY); REAZ (ZW). Design: Onehemisphere, Sweden. Supported by: Intersolar Europe, Global Solar Council (GSC). Please cite as: SolarPower Europe (2020): Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2020-2024. Date of publication: June 2020. Disclaimer: Please note that all historical figures provided in this study are valid at the time of publication and will be revised when new and proven figures are available. All forecast figures are based on SolarPower Europe knowledge at the time of publication. Please also note that forecast figures have been rounded. SolarPower Europe’s five-year forecast consists of Low, Medium and High Scenarios. The Medium scenario anticipates the most likely development given the current state of play of the market. The Low Scenario forecast is based on the assumption that policymakers halt solar support and other issues arise, including interest rate hikes and severe financial crisis situations. Conversely, the High Scenario forecasts the best optimal case in which policy support, financial conditions and other factors are enhanced. Segmentation is based on the following system size: Residential (1000 kW, ground-mounted). SolarPower Europe’s methodology includes only grid-connected systems. Installed capacity is always expressed in DC, unless otherwise stated. Unless otherwise stated, the copyright and other intellectual property rights of market intelligence data and resources provided are owned by SolarPower Europe. 4 / SolarPower Europe / GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR POWER 2020-2024 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 1 GLOBAL SOLAR MARKET 7 UPDATE 2000 – 2019 7 PROSPECTS 2020 – 2024 24 SEGMENTS 2020 – 2024 33 2 FOCUS: THE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN SOLAR MARKET 35 TRENDS WHAT’S HOT IN SOLAR TECHNOLOGY 55 HIGHLIGHT COVID-19 IMPACTS ON SOLAR 63 3 GW-SCALE SOLAR POWER MARKETS IN 2019 69 4 GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR POWER 113SolarPower Europe / GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR POWER 2020-2024 / 5 Analysis from various sources substantiates the fact that utility-scale solar is oen the lowest cost power generation technology, with costs continuing to go down. While solar can compete with combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT), the rapidly decreasing cost for batteries enables solar + storage to outcompete gas peakers, depending on region and framework conditions. Only one year aer several tenders saw solar-winning bids enter the 2 US cent /kWh level, the next frontier was reached in 2019, when solar taris in the 1 US cent range were reported from four dierent regions: Latin America, North America, Europe, Middle East. Cost leadership alone is insuicient to expand the solar market if the policy framework is not fit for solar. This was again experienced in several of the major markets. The most prominent example is the world’s largest market China, which decreased by 32% to 30.1 GW, as the country’s administration was still struggling in 2019 (and still is) with its energy transformation – from a former uncapped and generous feed-in tari system, to a market-based scheme including auctions and IPP systems. India, the world’s third largest market, suered from multiple problems and installed 11% less solar in 2019 than the year before. The good news is that a trend continued and gained momentum that could already be observed last year. The low cost of solar and its unique, versatile nature have been attracting many new markets to embrace the technology, while several emerging markets strongly committed to solar power generation. In 2019, 16 countries added over 1 GW, in comparison to 11 in 2018, and 9 in 2017, showing how the diversification of the solar sector is beginning to unfold into markets with notable volumes, which together are able to to absorb the slumps of leading markets. Notable growth regions in 2019 included Europe, which added 22.9 GW – more than twice the capacity of the previous year – and the Middle East and Africa, where primarily tenders helped several countries turn into viable on- grid solar markets. In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, these tenders were frequently and successfully facilitated by developing finance institutions, which is why we included a chapter in cooperation with GET.invest, which provides a detailed background on grid-connected solar in that region. Due to the effects of COVID-19, 2020 can be considered for the solar sector a year, where demand is expected to shrink by 4% to 112 GW in our Medium Scenario. The good news is that we expect the following four years, covered in our Global Market Outlook, to add even more solar than we anticipated last year. Although the actual growth level will depend, among other things, to the extent that solar will receive support from various economic stimulus programs. The report and all figures can be downloaded at: www.solarpowereurope.org EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2019, the global solar power sector returned to a two-digit growth path, increasing by 13% to 116.9 GW, marking a new annual installation record. This growth helped solar to expand its annual share among all other power generation technologies to 48% – in other words, almost half of the global net power plant capacity installed in 2019 was based on solar PV technology. While solar’s combined electricity output reached a mere 2.6%, this highlights the immense growth potential, which is increasingly in reach.SolarPower Europe / GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR POWER 2020-2024 / 7 GLOBAL SOLAR MARKET UPDATE 2000 - 2019 1 75 MW, Kalkbult, South Africa. Scatec Solar Overall, 2019 was a decent growth year for the global solar sector, improving with a low two-digit rate aer it basically paused the year before. Looking beyond the newly- installed worldwide solar capacity, solar developments look much brighter. Despite China’s dramatic demand decrease last year, global installations grew by two digits, showing that the world’s desire for solar power is diversifying, with an increasing number of countries turning towards the sun. In any case, solar maintained its title as the most attractive power generation source installed in 2019. As in the years before, not only was more solar PV added than all fossil fuel and nuclear power generation capacities combined, it also saw nearly twice as much power installed as wind, and more than all renewables together. On top of these impressive achievements, solar’s power generation share increased to 48%, compared to 42% in 2018 (see Fig. 1). However, these positive developments showing solar dominating annual global power generation capacity additions need to be taken into perspective. When looking at solar’s cumulative share it is still very small, adding up to only 8.5% by the end of 2019. Regarding actual output, all solar PV systems united generated a mere 2.6% of the global power output. This is also true in comparison to renewables as a whole, which owned about one third of total generation capacities, and 23% in the world’s power output in 2019 (see Fig. 2). The good news is that the market potential for solar is immense, and its constantly improving cost-competitiveness will enable the technology to reach an increasingly larger share. FIGURE 1 NET POWER GENERATING CAPACITY ADDED IN 2019 BY MAIN TECHNOLOGY Solar; 117 Wind; 61 Coal; 18 Gas; 30 Hydro; 15 Other RE; 5 SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2020 Source: Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF (2020).8 / SolarPower Europe / GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR POWER 2020-2024 1 GLOBAL SOLAR MARKET UPDATE 2000 - 2019 / CONTINUED FIGURE 2 SOLAR AND RENEWABLE POWER AS A SHARE OF GLOBAL POWER 2015-2019 0 % 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Solar capacity change as a % of global capacity additions (net) RE capacity change as a % of global capacity additions (net) Other RE power as a % of global power generation Non-RE power as a % of global power generation Solar power as a % of global power generation 1.0% 22% 21% 62% 1.3% 22% 30% 59% 1.8% 23% 38% 68% 2.2% 23% 42% 73% 2.6% 23% 48% 80% SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2020 Source: Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF (2020); IRENA (2020); SPE estimates. Note: RE capacity includes large hydro. Project site analysis Definition of design Download documentation Look at the results Metereological data review The leading software for utility-scale photovoltaic plants design Projects 8000+ GW Optimazed 1000+ Countries 100+ ratedpower.comSolarPower Europe / GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR POWER 2020-2024 / 9 Solar’s success story over other technologies has a variety of reasons, but a key factor is its rapid cost reduction over the last decade, which has finally led solar to become the cost leader (see Fig. 3). While the cost of solar PV power generation has been lower than unsubsidised fossil fuels and nuclear for several years, they are now oen also less costly than gas and even wind in many regions of the world. FIGURE 3 SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION COST IN COMPARISON WITH OTHER POWER SOURCES 2009-2019 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 USD/MWh Solar Wind CCGT Coal Nuclear 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 155 109 56 41 40 SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2020 Source: Lazard (2019). Historical mean unsubsidised LCOE values (nominal terms, post-tax).