IRENA：2020年可再生能源发电成本

www.irena.org © IRENA 2021 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2020 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2020 2021 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 20202 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2020 © IRENA 2021 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. Citation: IRENA (2021), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ISBN 978-92-9260-348-9 Acknowledgements IRENA is grateful for the valuable contributions of Dolf Gielen, Elizabeth Press, Ahmed Badr, Simon Benmarraze, Herib Blanco, Francisco Boshell, Yong Chen, Barbara Jinks and Binu Parthan (IRENA) in the preparation of this study. This report benefited from the reviews and comments of numerous experts, including Pietro Altermatt (Trina Solar), Alain Dollet (CNRS / PROMES), Alejandro Labanda (UNEF), Alex Barrows (exa-watt), Amelie Ancelle (ESTELA), Christoph Richter (DLR), Daniel Gudopp (deea Solutions), David Moser (Eurac Research), Eero Vartiainen (Fortum Growth Oy), Elvira Lopez Prados (Acciona), Eric Lantz (NREL), Florian Egli (ETH Zurich), Jose Donoso (UNEF), Jose Luis Martinez Dalmau (ESTELA), Jürgen Dersch (DLR), Keiji Kimura (Renewable Energy Institute), Lena Kitzing (DTU), Manuel Quero (Sunntics), Marcel Bial (ESTELA), Mark Mehos (NREL), Marta Martinez Sanchez (Iberdrola), Miguel Mendez Trigo (ESTELA), Molly Morgan (exa-watt), Nikolai Orgland (ETH Zurich), Paul Komor (University of Colorado at Boulder), Pedro Dias (Solar Heat Europe), Phillip Beiter (IEA Wind), Simon Price (exa-watt) and Rina Bohle Zeller (Vestas). Contributors: Michael Taylor, Pablo Ralon and Sonia Al-Zoghoul (IRENA). Bärbel Epp on solar thermal (Solrico) and Matthias Jochum on WACC benchmarking (ETH Zurich). IRENA would like to thank: · The International Climate Initiative (IKI) as part of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety for supporting the analysis of commercial and industrial solar thermal heat within the project Solar Payback. · The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy for supporting the benchmarking and survey of the cost of capital for renewable power generation projects. For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.org This report is available for download: www.irena.org/publications Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. Photographs are from Shutterstock unless otherwise indicated. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge, and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. An intergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org 3 Renewables are becoming more and more competitive in the energy landscape. The data from the IRENA Renewable Cost Database shows cost declines continued in 2020, with the cost of electricity from utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) falling 7% year-on-year, offshore wind fell by 9%, onshore wind by 13% and that of concentrating solar power (CSP) by 16%. The decade 2010 to 2020 saw dramatic improvement in the competitiveness of solar and wind power technologies. Between 2010 and 2020, the cost of electricity from utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) fell 85%, followed by concentrating solar power (CSP; 68%), onshore wind (56%) and offshore wind (48%). The last decade has seen CSP, offshore wind and utility-scale solar PV all join onshore wind in the cost range for new capacity fired by fossil fuels, when calculated without the benefit of financial support. Indeed, the trend is not only one of renewables competing with fossil fuels, but significantly undercutting them. This is not just the case where new generating capacity is required. The analysis in this report shines a spotlight on how even existing coal plants are increasingly vulnerable to being undercut by new renewables. Indeed, our analysis suggests that up to 800 gigawatts (GW) of existing coal-fired capacity could be economically replaced by new renewables capacity, saving the electricity system up to USD 32 billion per year and reducing carbon-dioxide (CO2 ) emissions by up to 3 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2. This would provide 20% of the emissions reduction needed by 2030 for the 1.5°C climate pathway outlined in IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook. There is no room for these coal assets to be part of the energy future, retrofitting with carbon capture and storage would only increase costs. While the flexibility to integrate very high shares of renewables will come from other, cheaper sources, with IRENA having identified 30 options that can be combined into comprehensive solutions in the report Innovation landscape for a renewable powered future. IRENA has, for over a decade, highlighted the essential role renewable power generation will play in the energy transition, as the opportunities for cost reduction were time and again, demonstrated, and then, in many cases, exceeded as smart policy and the razor-sharp focus of industry combined to unlock better performance and lower costs. The insights from IRENA’s data bear witness to the fruits of IRENA’s pluriannual programme of work and its focus on providing our Member States with the facts they need to support the energy transition at home. With falling renewable power generation costs, updates to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) need to consider the opportunities that have emerged in recent years. Countries can be more ambitious, and IRENA is ready to support them in that process. This report also reinforces one of the key messages of our World Energy Transitions Outlook 2021, that very low-cost renewables can not only form the backbone of a decarbonised electricity system, but support a radically different future energy system where renewable hydrogen – derived from very low-cost renewable electricity – and modern biomass provide the last key to unlocking an affordable pathway to a 1.5°C future for us all. Now is the time to seize that opportunity. Francesco La Camera Director-General International Renewable Energy Agency FOREWORD4 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2020 Figures, Tables and Boxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Renewable power generation costs in 2020 12 Renewable power generation cost trends, 2010-2020: A decade of falling costs 14 Renewable power generation is becoming the default economic choice for new capacity 16 Low-cost renewable power is stranding existing coal-fired power plants .18 Solar and wind power technologies have remarkable learning rates .19 LATEST COST TRENDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Introduction 21 Solar and wind power cost trends in 2020 .24 Cost trends 2010-2020: A decade of decline 26 Auction and Power Purchase Agreement price trends .34 Learning curves for solar and wind power technologies .37 Low-cost renewable hydrogen today: Is it possible? 46 ONSHORE WIND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Highlights 51 Introduction .52 Onshore wind total installed costs 55 Capacity factors 57 Operation and maintenance costs 60 Levelised cost of electricity 62 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Highlights 67 Recent market trends 68 Total installed costs .68 Capacity factors 78 Operation and maintenance costs .81 Levelised cost of electricity .82 OFFSHORE WIND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Highlights 91 Introduction 92 Total installed costs .95 Capacity factors 98 Operation and maintenance costs 100 01 02 03 04 CONTENTS5 CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Highlights .105 Total installed costs 107 Capacity factors .110 Operations and maintenance costs .112 Levelised cost of electricity 113 HYDROPOWER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 Highlights .119 Total installed costs 120 Capacity factors .127 Operation and maintenance costs .128 Levelised cost of electricity .130 GEOTHERMAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Highlights .133 Introduction 134 Total installed costs 136 Capacity factors .137 Levelised cost of electricity 138 BIOENERGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 Highlights .141 Bioenergy for power .142 Biomass feedstocks 142 Total installed costs 143 Capacity factors and efficiency 146 Operation and maintenance costs 147 Levelised cost of electricity 148 RENEWABLE HEAT COSTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 Solar thermal for district heating in Denmark 154 Large-scale solar thermal in Austria, Germany and Mexico 155 Economies of scale .156 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 ANNEX I Cost metric methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 Changing financing conditions for renewables and the weighted average cost of capital .168 ANNEX II The IRENA Renewable Cost Database . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 ANNEX III Regional Groupings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 06 07 08 09 056 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 FIGURES Figure ES.1 G l o b a l w e i g ht e d - a v e r a g e L C O E f r o m newly commissioned, utility-scale solar and wind power technologies, 2019-2020 13 Figure ES.2 Global LCOEs from newly commissioned, utility-scale renewable power generation technologies, 2010-2020 .15 Figure ES.3 T h e g l o b a l w e i g ht e d - a v e r a g e L C O E and PPA/auction prices for solar PV, onshore wind, offshore wind and CSP, 2010-2023 . 17 Figure 1.1 Global LCOE from newly commissioned utility-scale solar and wind power technologies, 2019-2020 . 25 Figure 1.2 Global LCOEs from newly commissioned, utility-scale renewable power generation technologies, 2010-2020 27 Figure 1.3 A n n u a l a n d c u m u l a t i v e t o t a l n e w renewable power generation capacity added at a lower cost than the cheapest fossil fuel-fired option, 2010-2020 . 29 Figure 1.4 G l o b a l w e i g ht e d - a v e r a g e t o t a l i n s t a ll e d costs by technology, 2010-2020 . 31 Figure 1.5 Global weighted-average utility-scale capacity factor by technology, 2010-2020 32 Figure 1.6 Global weighted-average utility-scale LCOE by technology, 2010-2020 33 Figure 1.7 T h e p r o j e c t a n d g l o b a l w e i g ht e d - a v e r a g e LCOE and PPA/auction prices for solar PV, onshore wind, offshore wind and CSP, 2010-2023 35 Figure 1.8 T h e g l o b a l w e i g ht e d - a v e r a g e t o t a l installed cost learning curve trends for solar PV, CSP, onshore and offshore wind, 2010-2020 38 Figure 1.9 T h e g l o b a l w e i g ht e d - a v e r a g e L C O E learning curve trends for solar PV, CSP, onshore and offshore wind, 2010-2021/23 . 39 Figure 1.10 O p e r a t i n g c o s t s o n l y o f e xi s t i n g c o a l - f i r e d power plants in Bulgaria, Germany, India and the United States by installed capacity and capacity factor in 2020 42 Figure B1.1 B e n c h m a r k r e a l W A C C e s t i m a t e s f o r utility-scale solar PV projects in the G20, 2021 45 Figure 1.11 S c e n a r i o s f o r L C O H 2 from utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind under different input assumptions in Saudi Arabia . 47 Figure 2.1 Global weighted-average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for onshore wind, 2010-2020 . 51 Figure 2.2 Weighted-average osnhore wind rotor diameter and nameplate capacity evolution, 2010-2020 53 Figure 2.3 Wind turbine price indices and price trends, 1997-2021 . 54 Figure 2.4 Total installed costs of onshore wind projects and global weighted-average, 1983-2020 55 Figure 2.5 Onshore wind weighted-average total installed costs in 15 countries, 1984–2020 . 56 Figure 2.6 Historical onshore wind average capacity factors and wind speed for projects commissioned in 2020 . 58 Figure 2.7 H i s t o r i c a l o n s h o r e wi n d w e i g ht e d - a v e r a g e capacity factors in 15 countries, 1984–2020 59 Figure 2.8 F u ll - s e r v i c e ( i n i t i a l a n d r e n e w a l ) O & M pricing indexes and weighted-average O&M costs in Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Norway, Sweden and the United States, 2008-2020 61 Figure 2.9 L C O E o f o n s h o r e wi n d p r o j e c t s a n d global weighted average, 1983–2020 63 Figure 2.10 T h e w e i g ht e d - a v e r a g e L C O E o f commissioned onshore wind projects in 15 countries, 1984–2020 . 64 Figure 3.1 G l o b a l w e i g ht e d - a v e r a g e t o t a l installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for PV, 2010–2020 .