国际能源现状及展望-单国瑞-CNREC.pdf

! INTERNATIONAL ENERGY STATUS AND OUTLOOK Presentation at the 2019 China New Energy Networking Meeting Kaare Sandholt, Chief Expert, China National Renewable Energy Centre ! INTERNATIONAL ENERGY TRENDS ! Global game changers Decarbonisation Power sector disruption RE cost reduction ! DECARBONISATION Global game changers ! Global warming – not theory but reality 2018 the fourth hottest year on record, 2017 the second hottest year, 2016 the hottest year A study projects that drastic combinations of heat and humidity may hit large areas of the world later this century. (Map: Ethan Coffel) ! Rapid decrease in CO2 emissions needed to comply with the Paris agreement Source: IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C. ! ! Source: IEA WEO 2018 ! CO2 emission in the IEA scenarios Source: IEA WEO 2018 ! Source: IEA WEO 2018 ! Source: IEA WEO 2018 ! RE COST REDUCTION Global game changers ! IEA: 2018 RE market report ! IEA: 2018 RE market report ! POWER SYSTEM DISRUPTION Global game changers ! Energy Policy Priorities Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection ! Paradigm shifts Before Flue gas cleaning One-way supply Monopoly and vertical integration Data monopoly and data shortage Now Decarbonisation Diversified supply and prosumers Markets and data transparency digital revolution and smart systems 17 Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection ! Paradigm shifts Before Flue gas cleaning One-way supply Monopoly and vertical integration Data monopoly and data shortage Now Decarbonisation Diversified supply and prosumers Markets and data transparency digital revolution and smart systems 18 Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection ! Paradigm shifts Before Flue gas cleaning One-way supply Monopoly and vertical integration Data monopoly and data shortage Now Decarbonisation Diversified supply and prosumers Markets and data transparency digital revolution and smart systems 19 Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection ! Paradigm shifts Before Flue gas cleaning One-way supply Monopoly and vertical integration Data monopoly and data shortage Now Decarbonisation Diversified supply and prosumers Markets and data transparency digital revolution and smart systems 20 Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection ! Paradigm shifts Before Flue gas cleaning One-way supply Monopoly and vertical integration Data monopoly and data shortage Now Decarbonisation Diversified supply and prosumers Markets and data transparency Digital revolution and smart systems 21 Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection ! Smart, data-centric system One-way power flows Predictability PAST FUTURE? PRESENT Variability 12:00 Coordination of interconnector capacities (flow based or available transmission capacity (ATC)) Coordinated available transmission capacity (ATC) Flow based approach (FB) Ca p a c i t y ca l cu l a t i o n ! Benefits Case #1: Promote Wholesale Markets • 1 B€ in social welfare • ~100 M€/yearof benefits from flow- based in CWE • 84%efficient use of capacity given to the market • 1500 TWh(~50%of consumption) traded on exchanges DAY-AHEAD MARKETS INTRADAY MARKETS DERIVATIVES MARKETS 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2008-2016 Spot-volume growth (TWh/yr). EPEX and NordPoolcombined 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2008-2016 Derivative-volumes picking up (TWh/yr). EEX and NasdaqOMXcombined Efficient day- ahead markets Market trust Efficient planning Liquid derivatives Efficient hedging IT IS ALL CONNECTED • 120 TWh traded on main power exchanges in 2016 • 3,6% average annual volume growth last 5 years STATES WITH INTRADAYMARKETS ü Continuous trading ü 15 minutes auctions ! Benefits Case #2: Integrate Balancing Markets Replacement reserves in the Nordics since 2003 Pilot on imbalance netting within and around Germany (IGCC) Pilot on replacement reserves across the Continent (TERRE) ~ 220 M€ ~ 80 M€ ~ 120 M€ Up to 3 Bn€ Theoretical benefits of full integration of balancing markets Annual benefits: Common reserves, netting and common merit order implemented across TSO- areas in Germany ~ 260 M€ ! POWER SECTOR RESPONSE ! • the sector association representing the common interests of the electricity industry at pan-European level • represents 3,500 companies in Europe with an aggregate turnover of €200 bln ! !