国际能源现状及展望-单国瑞-CNREC.pdf

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY STATUS AND OUTLOOK Presentation at the 2019 China New Energy Networking Meeting Kaare Sandholt, Chief Expert, China National Renewable Energy Centre INTERNATIONAL ENERGY TRENDS Global game changers Decarbonisation Power sector disruption RE cost reduction DECARBONISATION Global game changers Global warming – not theory but reality 2018 the fourth hottest year on record, 2017 the second hottest year, 2016 the hottest year A study projects that drastic combinations of heat and humidity may hit large areas of the world later this century. Map Ethan Coffel Rapid decrease in CO2 emissions needed to comply with the Paris agreement Source IPCC, 2018 Global Warming of 1.5C. Source IEA WEO 2018 CO2 emission in the IEA scenarios Source IEA WEO 2018 Source IEA WEO 2018 Source IEA WEO 2018 RE COST REDUCTION Global game changers IEA 2018 RE market report IEA 2018 RE market report POWER SYSTEM DISRUPTION Global game changers Energy Policy Priorities Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection Paradigm shifts Before Flue gas cleaning One-way supply Monopoly and vertical integration Data monopoly and data shortage Now Decarbonisation Diversified supply and prosumers Markets and data transparency digital revolution and smart systems 17 Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection Paradigm shifts Before Flue gas cleaning One-way supply Monopoly and vertical integration Data monopoly and data shortage Now Decarbonisation Diversified supply and prosumers Markets and data transparency digital revolution and smart systems 18 Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection Paradigm shifts Before Flue gas cleaning One-way supply Monopoly and vertical integration Data monopoly and data shortage Now Decarbonisation Diversified supply and prosumers Markets and data transparency digital revolution and smart systems 19 Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection Paradigm shifts Before Flue gas cleaning One-way supply Monopoly and vertical integration Data monopoly and data shortage Now Decarbonisation Diversified supply and prosumers Markets and data transparency digital revolution and smart systems 20 Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection Paradigm shifts Before Flue gas cleaning One-way supply Monopoly and vertical integration Data monopoly and data shortage Now Decarbonisation Diversified supply and prosumers Markets and data transparency Digital revolution and smart systems 21 Security of supply/ Energy Access Cost of energy Environmental protection Smart, data-centric system One-way power flows Predictability PAST FUTURE PRESENT Variability 1200 Coordination of interconnector capacities flow based or available transmission capacity ATC Coordinated available transmission capacity ATC Flow based approach FB Ca p a c i t y ca l cu l a t i o n Benefits Case 1 Promote Wholesale Markets 1 B€ in social welfare 100 M€/yearof benefits from flow- based in CWE 84efficient use of capacity given to the market 1500 TWh50of consumption traded on exchanges DAY-AHEAD MARKETS INTRADAY MARKETS DERIVATIVES MARKETS 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2008-2016 Spot-volume growth TWh/yr. EPEX and NordPoolcombined 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2008-2016 Derivative-volumes picking up TWh/yr. EEX and NasdaqOMXcombined Efficient day- ahead markets Market trust Efficient planning Liquid derivatives Efficient hedging IT IS ALL CONNECTED 120 TWh traded on main power exchanges in 2016 3,6 average annual volume growth last 5 years STATES WITH INTRADAYMARKETS Continuous trading 15 minutes auctions Benefits Case 2 Integrate Balancing Markets Replacement reserves in the Nordics since 2003 Pilot on imbalance netting within and around Germany IGCC Pilot on replacement reserves across the Continent TERRE 220 M€ 80 M€ 120 M€ Up to 3 Bn€ Theoretical benefits of full integration of balancing markets Annual benefits Common reserves, netting and common merit order implemented across TSO- areas in Germany 260 M€ POWER SECTOR RESPONSE the sector association representing the common interests of the electricity industry at pan-European level represents 3,500 companies in Europe with an aggregate turnover of €200 bln