全球氢能回顾2023（英文版）--国际能源署.pdf

Global Hydrogen Review 2023 The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 13 association countries and beyond. This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States The European nullmmission also participates in the work of the IEA IEA association countries: Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Kenya Morocco Senegal Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Global Hydrogen Review 2023 Abstract PAGE | 3 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . Abstract The Global Hydrogen Review is an annual publication by the International Energy Agency that tracks hydrogen production and demand worldwide, as well as progress in critical areas such as infrastructure development, trade, policy, regulation, investments and innovation. The report is an output of the Clean Energy Ministerial Hydrogen Initiative and is intended to inform energy sector stakeholders on the status and future prospects of hydrogen, while also informing discussions at the Hydrogen Energy Ministerial Meeting organised by Japan. Focusing on hydrogen’s potentially major role in meeting international energy and climate goals, the Review aims to help decision makers fine-tune strategies to attract investment and facilitate deployment of hydrogen technologies at the same time as creating demand for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels. It compares real-world developments with the stated ambitions of government and industry. This year’s report includes a focus on demand creation for low-emission hydrogen. Global hydrogen use is increasing, but demand remains so far concentrated in traditional uses in refining and the chemical industry and mostly met by hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels. To meet climate ambitions, there is an urgent need to switch hydrogen use in existing applications to low-emission hydrogen and to expand use to new applications in heavy industry or long-distance transport. Global Hydrogen Review 2023 Acknowledgements, contributors and credits PAGE | 4 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . Acknowledgements, contributors and credits The Global Hydrogen Review was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy (ETP) Division of the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The study was designed and directed by Timur Gül, Chief Energy Technology Officer and Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division. Uwe Remme (Head of the Hydrogen and Alternative Fuels Unit) and Jose Miguel Bermudez Menendez co-ordinated the analysis and production of the report. Laura Cozzi, Dennis Hesseling, Paolo Frankl, Tim Gould, Keisuke Sadamori, Hiro Sakaguchi, and Araceli Fernandez Pales provided valuable, strategic guidance during the report’s development process. The principal IEA authors and contributors were (in alphabetical order): Praveen Bains (hydrogen-based fuels), Simon Bennett (investment), Leonardo Collina (industry), Elizabeth Connelly (transport), Chiara Delmastro (buildings), Stavroula Evangelopoulou (production and data management), Mathilde Fajardy (CCUS), Alexandre Gouy (industry), Megumi Kotani (policy), Jean-Baptiste Le Marois (innovation), Peter Levi (industry), Rafael Martinez Gordon (buildings), Shane McDonagh (transport), Francesco Pavan (production, trade and infrastructure), Amalia Pizarro (trade, infrastructure and innovation), Noah Sloots (buildings) and Christoph Winkler (production). The development of this report benefitted from contributions provided by the following IEA colleagues: Ana Alcalde Bascones, Carl Greenfield, Ilkka Hannula, Luca Lo Re, Jennifer Ortiz, and Nikoo Tajdolat. Lizzie Sayer edited the manuscript while Liselott Fredriksson, Anna Kalista and Per-Anders Widell provided essential support throughout the process. Thanks also to the IEA Communications and Digital Office for their help in producing the report, particularly to Curtis Brainard, Poeli Bojorquez, Jon Custer, Astrid Dumond, Merve Erdil, Grace Gordon, Jethro Mullen, Isabelle Nonain- Semelin, Julie Puech, Lucile Wall, Therese Walsh and Wonjik Yang. The work could not have been achieved without the financial support provided by the Governments of Australia, Canada, Germany, and Japan. The following governments have also contributed to the report through their voluntary contribution to the CEM Hydrogen Initiative: Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland, Germany, the European Commission, the Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States. Global Hydrogen Review 2023 Acknowledgements, contributors and credits PAGE | 5 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . Special thanks go to the following organisations and initiatives for their valuable contributions: Advanced Fuel Cells Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP), European Patent Office, Hydrogen Council, Hydrogen TCP and the International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy (IPHE). Peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report. They include: Nawal Al-Hanaee (Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, United Arab Emirates); Abdul Aziz Aliyu (GHG TCP); Laurent Antoni and Noé van Hulst (IPHE); Florian Ausfelder (Dechema); Ruta Baltause, Tudor Constantinescu, Ruud Kempener, Eirik V. W. Lønning and Matthijs Soede (European Commission); Frederic Bauer (Lund University); Prerna Bhargava (Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Australia); Herib Blanco; Joß Bracker (Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, Germany); Paula Brunetto (Enel); James Collins (ITM Power); Harriet Culver, Katherine Davis, Lara Hirschhausen and Oliviero Iurkovich (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, United Kingdom); Caroline Czach, Isabel Murray and Claudie Roy (Natural Resources Canada); Lucie Ducloue (Air Liquide); Alexandru Floristean (Hy24); Daniel Fraile (Hydrogen Europe); Marta Gandiglio (Politecnico di Torino); Dolf Gielen (World Bank); Celine Le Goazigo (WBCSD); Stefan Gossens (Schaeffler AG); Emile Herben (Yara); Marina Holgado (Hydrogen TCP); Marius Hörnschemeyer (DENA); Ruben Hortensius, Sanne van Santen and Anouk Zandbergen (Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, the Netherlands); Shunsuke Inui and Wataru Kaneko (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan); Leandro Janke (Agora Energiewende); Adam Karl (AECOM); Ilhan Kim (Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea); Marcos Kulka (Chile Hydrogen Association); Subhash Kumar (ACME); Leif Christian Kröger (thyssenkrupp nucera); Martin Lambert (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies); Wilco van der Lans (Port of Rotterdam Authority); Kirsten McNeill (Sunfire); Jonas Moberg (Green Hydrogen Organisation); Susana Moreira (H2Global); Pietro Moretto (JRC); Motohiko Nishimura, Taku Hasegawa, Aya Saito and Tomoki Tominaga (Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd.); Daria Nochevnik (Hydrogen Council); Maria Teresa Nonay Domingo (Enagás); Koichi Numata (Toyota); Cédric Philibert (Independent consultant); Mark Pickup (Ministry of Business, Innovation Nicolas Pocard (Ballard); Joris Proost (UCLouvain Belgium); Andrew Purvis (World Steel Association); Noma Qase (Department of Mineral Resources, South Africa); Agustín Rodriguez (Topsoe); Xavier Rousseau (Snam); Sunita Satyapal and Neha Rustagi (Department of Energy, United States); Julian Schorpp (Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe); Ángel Landa Ugarte (Iberdrola); Derek Wissmiller (GTI Energy); and Marcel Weeda (TNO). Global Hydrogen Review 2023 Table of contents PAGE | 6 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . Table of contents Executive summary 11 Recommendations 15 Chapter 1. Introduction 18 Overview . 18 The Hydrogen Initiative . 19 Chapter 2. Hydrogen use . 20 Overview and outlook . 20 Refining . 22 Industry 25 Transport . 29 Buildings 39 Electricity generation . 41 Creating demand for low-emission hydrogen . 45 Chapter 3. Hydrogen production 64 Overview and outlook . 64 Electrolysis 68 Fossil fuels with CCUS . 77 Comparison of different production routes . 80 Emerging production routes 91 Production of hydrogen-based fuels and feedstocks . 95 Chapter 4. Trade and infrastructure . 99 Status and outlook of hydrogen trade . 99 Status and outlook of hydrogen infrastructure 109 Chapter 5. Investment, finance and innovation 129 Investments in the hydrogen sector 129 Innovation in hydrogen technologies 140 Chapter 6. Policies . 148 Strategies and targets . 148 Demand creation . 150 Mitigating investment risks 152 Promotion of RD feedstock to produce ammonia, methanol and other chemicals; and as a reducing agent to produce direct reduced iron (DRI) using fossil-based synthetic gas. This category also includes the use of hydrogen in electronics, glassmaking or metal processing, but these sectors use very small quantities of hydrogen (around 1 Mt per year) and are not included in our tracking.  Potential new applications, such as the use of hydrogen as a reducing agent in 100%-hydrogen DRI, transport, production of hydrogen-based fuels (such as ammonia or synthetic hydrocarbons), biofuels upgrading, high-temperature heating in industry, and electricity storage and generation, as well as other applications in which hydrogen use is expected to be very small due to the existence of more efficient low-emission alternatives. Refining Hydrogen use in refining reached more than 41 Mt in 2022, surpassing its historical maximum from 2018. The largest increase in year-on-year demand came from North America and the Middle East, together accounting for more than 1 Mt, or around three-quarters of global growth in 2022 (Figure 2.2). China was the only major refining region that reduced its demand for hydrogen (around 0.5 Mt) due to a decrease in refinery throughput as a consequence of extensive pandemic-related mobility restrictions. About 80% of the hydrogen used in refineries was produced onsite at the refineries themselves, with around 55% resulting from dedicated hydrogen production and the rest being produced as a by-product from different operations, such as naphtha crackers. Less than 1% of the hydrogen used in refineries in 2022 was produced using low-emission technologies. The remaining 20% of hydrogen used was sourced as merchant hydrogen, 6 produced externally, and mostly from 6 Merchant hydrogen sourced by refineries is typically produced in plants very close to the refinery, and sometimes even in the same location, but in plants operated by another company, given that hydrogen is not a global commodity today. Global Hydrogen Review 2023 Chapter 2. Hydrogen use PAGE | 23 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . unabated fossil fuels. The production of hydrogen for use in refining resulted in 240-380 Mt CO 2 emitted to the atmosphere in 2022. 7 Hydrogen use by region and source of hydrogen for refining, historical and in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, 2019-2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Notes: NZE = Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Fossil w/o CCUS = fossil fuels without carbon capture, utilisation and storage; Fossil w CCUS = fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Onsite refers to the production of hydrogen inside refineries, including dedicated captive production and as a by-product of catalytic reformers. Hydrogen use in refining reached a new record in 2022, but the fall in demand for oil products required to align with the NZE 2050 Scenario would reverse this trend. Meeting the requirements of the NZE Scenario necessitates a reversal in the trend towards increasing demand for oil products, which will in turn result in lower hydrogen use in refining. Consequently, the use of hydrogen in refining is less than 35 Mt by 2030 in the NZE Scenario. In addition, a larger share of the hydrogen used in refining is met by low-emission hydrogen, which accounts for more than 15% of hydrogen use in 2030 in the NZE Scenario. The use of low-emission hydrogen in refining can offer an accessible route to create large demand for low-emission hydrogen and facilitate the scale-up of production, given that it involves a like-for-like substitution rather than a fuel switch. However, use of low-emission hydrogen in refineries has been limited to date, and is progressing slowly as a consequence of its higher production costs when compared with hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels (see Chapter 3 Hydrogen production) and the lack of policy action to promote its adoption (see Creating demand for low-emission hydrogen). In 2022, around 250 kt of low- emission hydrogen were used in refineries, practically the same amount as in 2021, given that only a couple of small electrolysis pilot projects (2.4 MW and 7 The range reflects different emission allocation of by-product hydrogen production. This excludes upstream and midstream emissions for fossil fuel supply. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2019 2020 2021 2022 2030 NZE M t hy dr og en Use by region North America China Middle East Europe India Other Asia Rest of world Global 2030 NZE 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2019 2020 2021 2022 2030 NZE Source of hydrogen Onsite - by-product Onsite - fossil w/o CCUS Onsite - fossil w CCUS Onsite - electricity Merchant Global Hydrogen Review 2023 Chapter 2. Hydrogen use PAGE | 24 I E A . CC B Y 4. 0 . 50 kW of installed capacity) started operating in the year (Figure 2.3). Almost all the low-emission hydrogen used in refining in 2022 was produced in four facilities using fossil fuels with CCUS that were already in operation in refineries in Canada and the United States 8 . An increase in the use of low-emission hydrogen in refining can be expected in 2023. In July, Sinopec put into operation the world’s largest electrolysis plant in Kuqa, China, (260 MW), which will produce 20 kt of low-emission hydrogen to supply Tahe refinery. However, there are only a limited number of announced projects aiming to produce low-emission hydrogen in refineries to replace hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels. If all the announced projects are realised on time, 1.3 Mt of low-emission hydrogen will be produced and used in refineries by 2030, with around 1.1 Mt being produced from fossil fuels with CCUS and 0.2 Mt from electrolysis. 9 This represents an increase of around 6% compared to the potential p