2023年全球采矿和金属行业展望（英文版）--毕马威.pdf

KPMG International 2023 Global Mining and Metals Outlook Executive insights on decarbonization KPMG.com/mining KPMG.com/metals Foreword For the mining and metals industry, the challenge is unique. It must quickly increase production to supply global business with the materials it needs to shift to a carbon-free future. Yet it must do so without harming the environment, while restructuring its own operations so that they consume less carbon. This transformation will depend partly on the mining and metals executives we contacted to compile this report and on the readers of it – plus thousands of others like them. As leaders of their companies, their responsibility is to guide the industry onto a more sustainable path and to convince a skeptical audience that they are doing so in a sustainable fashion. As one industry leader explains in this report, there has never been greater demand for metals and minerals, but it’s never been harder to develop new mines. The same challenge can be said for makers of steel and other materials that need to invest rapidly in new processes that will cut carbon emissions. KPMG International compiled this report to provide insights on these challenges and the opportunities it presents. We would like to extend special thanks to our external contributors of the report, Tom O’Leary, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Iluka Resources, Dale Henderson, Chief Executive Officer of Pilbara Minerals and Rohitesh Dhawan, President and Chief Executive Officer of the International Council on Mining wireless sensor technologies to track processes and mine safety; and private 5G networks to help conduct preventative maintenance.² For metals companies, AI and data analytics are likely to have the biggest impact, the survey says. “We need to demystify the technology by breaking it down into four types,” says KPMG in India’s Bhargava: 1. Digital technologies to ensure production processes achieve the best possible outcome. 2. Circular technologies to extract metals from waste (Bhargava is advising a large metals company which is collaborating with up to 25 technology partners around the world). 3. Carbon-capture technologies. 4. Disruptive technologies such as hydrogen that either reduce or obviate the need for carbon. Bhatnagar adds a fifth: applying technology to use the energy in off-gases more efficiently, which is especially important in India. Bhatnagar says, “It is almost impossible to open a new steel factory making metals using traditional technologies. The only way to obtain a license to operate is if a company can prove that the factory will have a significantly smaller carbon footprint or it is producing materials that are critical to national security, such as rare earths and lithium.” 2023 Global Mining and Metals Outlook 22 ©2023 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. European metals companies face a different challenge. In December 2022, EU ministers finalized a carbon border adjustment mechanism. This took the form of a tax designed to ensure that carbon-intensive industries such as steel, which must comply with strict emissions standards, are not undermined by competitors from outside the EU that have weaker emissions rules.³ “The EU aims to create a level playing field for metal manufacturers, particularly concerning their environmental footprint, which will likely influence the competitive market dynamics in Europe. As market participants worldwide progress toward their net-zero goals, they must individually and collectively consider these shifting dynamics and adapt accordingly,” says Ugo Platania, Global Metals Leader, KPMG International. Markus Zeimes, Head of Metals, KPMG in Germany, says there will be massive technological changes among the European steel companies over the next few years as they reduce their carbon emissions. The largest such firm in Germany is aiming to use hydrogen-based direct reduction to remove the oxygen from iron ore. “The German steel industry is heavily investing in new technologies to become greener. Producing steel based on the use of hydrogen is one way to do so,” Zeimes says. “The energy requirements of new technologies are immense. Cost and availability of renewable energy, therefore, are crucial for a successful conversion of the steel industry to approach zero carbon emissions. We currently see that strategic partnerships securing future hydrogen and energy demand are gaining more importance.” Which two technologies are likely to have the most impact on increasing mineral supplies over the next five years? 5G networks 26% Internet of Things 24% Advances in exploration techniques and technology 24% New extraction technologies 24% Artificial intelligence 23% Data analytics 22% Advances in exploration technology 19% Autonomous mining 16% Technologies that enhance recovery from mine waste and low-grade ores 8% Better ore pre-treatment 7% Source: KPMG International 2023 Global Mining & Metals Outlook - Survey Results 2023 Global Mining and Metals Outlook 23 ©2023 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. Which two technologies are likely to have the most impact on increasing metal supplies over the next five years? Artificial intelligence 48% Data analytics 42% 5G networks 31% Technologies that enhance recovery from recycled materials 21% Internet of Things 18% Autonomous steel production (such as autonomous vehicles) 17% Satellite imaging 15% Source: KPMG International 2023 Global Mining & Metals Outlook - Survey Results What are the most important factors affecting your company’s range of supply projections over the next five years? Government policies 55% Customer preferences 44% Technological changes 42% Recycling practices 31% Geopolitical challenges 18% Source: KPMG International 2023 Global Mining & Metals Outlook - Survey Results 2023 Global Mining and Metals Outlook 24 ©2023 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. Raising the ©2023 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. Raising the bar Tougher government scrutiny of ESG and net-zero performance is regarded by executives in the survey as the biggest risk to operations in the next five years. Almost half (48 percent) say so. By contrast, only a quarter say climate risk is very significant. The carbon border adjustment mechanism highlights the important role played by governments in moving toward a carbon-free future. What are the most significant risks you expect for your company’s operations in the next five years? Tougher government regulatory scrutiny or compliance burden of ESG and net-zero performance 48% Declining resource quality 35% Rising operating costs 29% High geographical concentration of production 29% Long project development lead times 29% Tougher investor scrutiny of ESG and net-zero performance 25% Higher exposure to climate risks, such as water stress or extreme weather events 24% Political instability/nationalization in a host country 19% Trade war 8% Inability to raise capital funds 3% Source: KPMG International 2023 Global Mining & Metals Outlook - Survey Results 2023 Global Mining and Metals Outlook 26 ©2023 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. Bhatnagar of KPMG in India points out though, that as of now, there are long- term net-zero goals, not compliance requirements. “In the next five years, governments in key countries will seek to understand and observe the visible steps being taken by mining and metals companies to show their commitment to net-zero goals by 2050 in Europe and by 2070 in India.” In response, says Bhargava, “This is a perfect time for companies to start to work on measuring and verifying emissions as accurately as possible. To prepare for the carbon border adjustment mechanism, they should start carrying documents showing the carbon content of their metals.” The survey shows that government policies are the biggest factor affecting supply projections and that the improved quality and availability of national geological surveys and data is seen as the most important government measure for ensuring a smooth minerals supply over the next few years. In the case of Iluka, the company received a A$1.25 billion non-recourse loan from the Australian Federal Government for the development of the country’s first integrated rare-earth metals refinery in Western Australia. “The objective of the government was not merely to enable Iluka to process our own deposits of rare earths, it was really to enable the development of a rare earths industry in Australia and that objective is being achieved. The government was facilitating the diversification of the supply chain for rare earths from the current concentration in China,” says O’Leary. Which is the most important of the following government measures for ensuring smooth minerals supply? Improved quality and availability of national geological surveys and data 62% Streamlined permitting procedures 44% Clear, stable policies (including taxes) to promote responsible mining and metal manufacture 41% Financing support to de-risk projects 31% Raise public awareness of the contributions such projects play in the energy transition 10% Source: KPMG International 2023 Global Mining & Metals Outlook - Survey Results 2023 Global Mining and Metals Outlook 27 ©2023 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. Geographical ©2023 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. Geographical jigsaw “The cost of carbon intensity will, in future, be baked into investment decisions and will change the cost dynamics,” observes Bhatnagar. “To be future-ready, some steel producers will try to diversify to the Middle East where there are plentiful supplies of natural gas and then move to hydrogen-based direct-reduction steel furnaces.” These sentiments are borne out by the survey. Almost a quarter (24 percent) are planning to increase their geographical footprint significantly and a further 41 percent plan to do so by a small amount. The drive to decarbonize is redrawing the map of the mining and metals industry. There is also the question of the impact of US–China rivalry on supply chains, particularly of critical minerals. “The geopolitical piece is definitely on the radar,” says Pilbara Minerals’ Henderson. “At the business-to- business level, we don’t have any cause for concern. It’s always been a healthy relationship, but of course we watch the geopolitical utterings between the US and China. I don’t foresee China making any detrimental move to increase the distance between Australia and China, in respective of raw materials, particularly within the lithium supply chain, because it would hurt them massively. Their industries are very dependent on Australia, and we have a very co- dependent relationship.” Henderson adds, “We are thinking about strategies to manage the geopolitical dimension. From the inception of the business, we have a strategy of being diversified, because it makes business sense.” Pilbara has made one diversification move by forming a joint venture with Korean steelmaker POSCO to develop a lithium hydroxide conversion facility in South Korea. “We’re balancing the fact that the whole lithium industry pretty much looks to China for the processing of raw materials, so we can’t sever that tie, nor do we want to. We continue to diversify into other markets, although we can’t pivot elsewhere too quickly,” says Henderson. Henderson adds, “The expansions we are executing will deliver a considerable step-up from current production levels and enable us to further integrate down the supply chain. The combination of our scale, downstream integration and innovation efforts will further support our objective to be a leader in sustainable battery materials.” Over the next five years are you planning to increase the number of countries in which you operate or explore in or, in the case of metals companies, buy the minerals from? Yes, by a small amount 41% Yes, by a significant amount 24% We do not plan any increase 26% No, we plan to decrease the number of countries 9% Source: KPMG International 2023 Global Mining & Metals Outlook - Survey Results 2023 Global Mining and Metals Outlook 29 ©2023 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. Conclusion All stakeholders want to build a global economy that is more sustainable, but the question remains: Are they willing to make the sacrifices needed to achieve a net-zero future? The survey and interviews show executives are tremendously confident of the future, but many outside the industry are skeptical. Factual evidence and rigorous research are essential for success. Ultimately, this optimal blend must lead to more effective decision- making. Executives face the difficult task of aligning the interests of governments, the public, their workers and investors to take the mining and metals industry where it needs to go, while ensuring the business is financially sustainable. The world will not achieve a net-zero carbon state unless companies can make a return in doing so. This survey and report analyze one of the greatest conundrums facing global business: how to pivot rapidly toward carbon-free solutions without harming the environment, while, at the same time, developing a strategy that aligns the interests of shareholders, workers, communities, consumers and governments. ©2023 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 30 2023 Global Mining and Metals Outlook