碳定价机制发展现状与未来趋势报告2022 执行摘要（英）.pdf

Executive summary State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2022Executive summary CARBON PRICING CAN PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND RECOVERY • More ambitious carbon prices can help close the gap between pledges and policy and “keep 1.5 alive.” • Along with lowering emissions, carbon pricing can improve energy and industrial efficiency, limit reliance on imported energy, promote cleaner air, protect and regenerate landscapes, and provide a valuable source of government revenue. • But adopting carbon prices remains politically challenging, particularly amid rising inflation and energy prices. There is a clear need to ensure policies are fair, effective, and embedded within integrated climate and social policies.Executive summary DIRECT CARBON PRICING CONTINUES TO BE ADOPTED BUT GLOBAL COVERAGE REMAINS LOW • Worldwide, 68 carbon pricing instruments (CPIs), including taxes and emissions trading systems (ETSs), are operating and three more are scheduled for implementation. • CPIs in operation cover approximately 23% of total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This represents a small increase in total global coverage as a result of four new systems commencing in the past year. • The International Maritime Organization is considering placing a price on emissions from international shipping activities. If adopted, this would represent a major step in tackling global GHG emissions.Executive summary MAP OF CARBON TAXES AND EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEMS ETS implemented or scheduled for implementation Carbon tax implemented or scheduled for implementation ETS and carbon tax implemented or scheduled ETS implemented or scheduled, carbon tax under consideration Carbon tax implemented or scheduled, ETS under consideration ETS or carbon tax under consideration Indonesia Singapore Brunei South Africa Botswana New Zealand Mexico Kazakhstan Pakistan Canada Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Turkey EU China Colombia Chile Senegal Brazil Côte d’Ivoire Morocco Israel Iceland Argentina Uruguay California Japan Republic of Korea Norway UK Sweden Spain Romania Portugal Poland Netherlands Ukraine Lithuania Latvia Italy Ireland Greece Germany France Finland Estonia Denmark Bulgaria Belgium Luxembourg Liechtenstein Catalonia Slovenia Austria Switzerland Hungary Serbia Montenegro Sakhalin Oregon Jalisco Hawaii Washington Taiwan, China Shenyang Tokyo Tianjin Shenzhen Shanghai Saitama Hubei Guangdong (except Shenzhen) Fujian Chongqing Beijing Zacatecas Tamaulipas Pennsylvania Massachusetts Baja California TCI RGGI Manitoba Saskatchewan Québec Ontario Nova Scotia Alberta Prince Edward Island Northwest Territories Newfoundland and Labrador New Brunswick British Columbia Carbon pricing initiatives are considered “scheduled for implementation” once they have been formally adopted through legislation and have an official, planned start date. Carbon pricing initiatives are considered “under consideration” if the government has announced its intention to work towards the implementation of a carbon pricing initiative and this has been formally confirmed by official government sources. TCI refers to Transportation and Climate Initiative. RGGI refers to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.Executive summary Spain Latvia Poland Uruguay* Netherlands Argentina* United Kingdom Colombia Chile Switzerland Denmark* France Portugal Finland* Sweden Ireland* Slovenia Iceland Norway* Luxembourg* Ukraine Singapore South Africa Liechtenstein Canada** Switzerland RGGI United Kingdom Germany EU ETS Kazakhstan New Zealand Rep. of Korea 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Carbon price USD/tCO2e Carbon tax ETS Share of GHG emissions covered in the jurisdiction Bubble size represents absolute covered total greenhouse gas emissions. *For CPIs that have multiple price levels, the price applying to the larger share of emissions is used. **This is a composite presentation representing total emissions covered by carbon pricing instruments under the Pan-Canadian Framework. It includes a combination of ETS-like and carbon tax-like instruments, implemented at both provincial and federal levels. Mexico* China National ETS Japan ABSOLUTE EMISSIONS COVERAGE, SHARE OF EMISSIONS COVERED, AND PRICES FOR CPIs ACROSS JURISDICTIONSExecutive summary CROSS-BORDER APPROACHES TO CARBON PRICING ARE INCREASINGLY GAINING TRACTION • The European Union (EU) moved closer to adopting its carbon border adjustment mechanism, and Canada and the United Kingdom are exploring options for similar mechanisms. • The International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization are advocating for an international carbon pricing floor. • Some countries have moved toward the adoption of international climate clubs, including the proposed United States (US)-EU Carbon- Based Sectoral Arrangement on Steel and Aluminum Trade. • These approaches can fortify domestic support, prevent carbon leakage, and encourage mitigation beyond national borders.Executive summary CARBON PRICES HAVE HIT RECORD HIGHS IN MANY JURISDICTIONS • Record ETS prices were observed in the European Union, California, New Zealand, and Republic of Korea, among other markets, while several carbon taxes also saw prices hit their highest levels yet. • A combination of policy reforms, anticipated changes, speculative investment interest, and broader economic trends, especially in global energy commodity markets, are driving these ETS price spikes. • Nonetheless, prices must rise considerably more to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, as less than 4% of global emissions are currently covered by a direct carbon price within the range needed by 2030.Executive summary CARBON REVENUES HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY • Global carbon pricing revenue increased by almost 60% in the past year, to around USD 84 billion. • With prices rising and reduced free allocation, ETS revenues surpassed carbon tax revenues for the first time. • Increasing carbon pricing revenues can support sustainable economic recovery, finance broader fiscal reforms, or help buffer countries from economic and international turbulence.Executive summary Carbon tax ETS ETS revenues surpass carbon tax revenues for the first time 74% 66% 53% 53% 51% 33% 26% 34% 47% 47% 49% 67% $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Billion USD GLOBAL CARBON PRICING REVENUES OVER TIMEExecutive summary MARKETS FOR CARBON CREDITS ARE GROWING RAPIDLY • Credits from independent crediting mechanisms clearly dominate the carbon market. • Annual voluntary carbon market value exceeded USD 1 billion for the first time, driven by corporate commitments. • Compliance demand for carbon credits remains limited, though new rules for international carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement provide clarity that may enable future growth.Executive summary GLOBAL VOLUME OF ISSUANCES BY CREDITING MECHANISM CATEGORY 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Million tCO2e Independent mechanisms International mechanisms Domestic mechanisms Verified Carbon Standard (62%) Taiwan Offset Program (2.6%) California Offset Program (3.6%) American Carbon Registry (2%) Gold Standard (9%) CDM (11%) Climate Action Reserve (1%) Australia Emission Reduction Fund (3.6%)Executive summary DIVERSE PURCHASER PREFERENCES MAKE MARKET GROWTH UNEVEN • Nature-based credits are in especially high demand: forestry and land use transactions more than doubled between 2020 and 2021. • Increasing demand for carbon removals has resulted in price increases for these credits. • The voluntary carbon market continues to be strongly diverse, with purchasers placing widely different values on characteristics such as sector, geography, and perceived co-benefits.Executive summary NEW FINANCIAL SERVICES, TECHNOLOGIES AND GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORKS ARE SHAPING CARBON MARKETS • Financial actors are becoming more active in the carbon market, while blockchain has enabled a new wave of decentralized financial innovations that show the technology’s potential but have reignited some long-standing concerns about transparency and quality. • Diverse governance frameworks are emerging from stakeholders and institutions that aim to address concerns regarding the integrity of carbon credits and how companies use them. • New rules on Article 6 increase certainty while also adding complexity to carbon credit markets and may lead to increasingly divergent approaches emerging across actors and geographies.