2022年清洁能源转型安全报告(英)-IEA.pdf

Security of Clean Energy TransitionsThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t the largest collective actions in the history of the IEA. IEA members underscored their strong and unified commitment to stabilising global energy markets, which was welcome by many G20 members. As these collective actions show, international collaboration and concrete actions are critical in ensuring the stable supply of energy, notably for developing economies. As underlined by the IEA report, Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, energy security becomes even more important on the way to net zero. Governments and industry must boost preparedness and resilience in the face of new and more frequent threats beyond traditional energy infrastructure disruption, such as cyberattacks and extreme weather events, particularly with regard to electricity infrastructure. The establishment of reliable and cost-effective supply chains for clean hydrogen and ensuring the adquacy of the global supply of critical minerals to meet the demand from ramping up clean energy technologies is part and parcel of achieving secure clean energy transitions. This report analyses the importance of energy efficiency in emerging economies in light of the cost of living crisis. It then discusses the importance of enhancing access to affordable and reliable electricity, touching on elements including faster deployment of a broad portfolio of renewable energy and ways to secure the integration of higher shares of variable renewables while boosting electricity security. Chapter 3 deals with how to strengthen preparedness, focusing on oil and gas security, the importance of which has been even more widely recognised amid the current crisis and high energy prices. The next chapter touches on the role of low-carbon fuels with a special focus on hydrogen, bioenergy and ammonia, which are the driving force behind accelerated clean energy transitions. Chapter 5 discusses the issue of existing fossil fuel infrastructure and the role of repurposing today’s sites to maintain dispatchable generation. Efficient and economic clean energy transitions entail not only optimising the usage of fossil fuel infrastructure, but also addressing the possibility of transforming existing assets for other uses. The final chapter evaluates the role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions. The security of their supply, production and availability will be fundamental for accelerating clean energy transitions. G20 economies are the drivers of global economic recovery as well as finance and investment. In the current high fuel price environment, governments need to rely on what worked well, quickly scale up such best practice policies, and avoid locking in new high-carbon infrastructure. Security of Clean Energy Transitions Introduction PAGE | 8 IEA. All rights reserved. The focus of this year’s Indonesia G20 Presidency is on the near-term actions up to 2030, with three core priorities. Indonesia looks to make progress in reaching universal energy access by 2030, scaling the deployment of clean energy technologies and increasing finance and investment, while employing an inclusive approach for the society at large and developing economies in particular. The elements discussed in this report address a number of the issues created by the global energy crisis, but cannot address all of them. More will emerge and need to be solved as clean energy transitions accelerate, and the international community, including the G20, will continue to tackle them to achieve the goal of a net zero energy system. Enhanced international collaboration on energy security as part of clean energy transitions is, and continues to be, at the heart of the G20.Security of Clean Energy Transitions 1. Prioritising energy efficiency in emerging economies PAGE | 9 IEA. All rights reserved. 1. Prioritising energy efficiency in emerging economies Energy efficiency is central to achieving affordable clean energy transitions that ensure equitable social development and economic growth. Decisive, ambitious and transformative action on energy efficiency is needed to improve the resilience, security and reliability of our energy systems, and improve access to sustainable and affordable energy services. Without the efficiency improvements made since 2000, the world would be using 13% more energy today and energy-related carbon emissions would be 14% higher. Over half of the energy savings achieved can be attributed to efficiency measures in the industrial sector, about a third to efficiency in buildings and appliances, and a tenth to transport efficiency. These efficiency improvements have lowered energy bills for households and businesses, enhanced competitiveness and supported job creation. Efficiency progress is also enhancing energy security and access to affordable, reliable energy. By cutting down overall energy demand, efficiency can significantly reduce overall reliance on fossil fuel imports, improve the balance of payments and reduce the likelihood of supply disruption. Efficiency gains since 2000 avoided the need for over 11 EJ of fossil fuel imports into IEA countries and other major economies 1 in 2017, equivalent to 20% more. Avoided oil imports into IEA countries alone were worth more than USD 30 billion. Looking towards a net zero emissions future by 2050, there is still significant untapped potential: doubling the current rate of energy intensity improvement from 2% to 4% per year until 2030 has the potential to avoid 95 EJ per year of final energy consumption – equivalent to the People’s Republic of China’s (hereafter, “China”) current final energy demand. Achieving 95 EJ of annual energy savings by 2030 would also translate into significantly strengthened energy security, avoiding the demand for almost 30 million barrels of oil per day, about triple Russia’s average production in 2021, and 650 bcm of natural gas per year, around four times EU imports from Russia in 2021. The actions outlined in the IEA 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas, the 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use and Playing my part: How to save money, reduce reliance on Russian energy, support Ukraine and help the planet show the power of energy efficiency to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports through behaviour changes. If all EU citizens were 1 IEA countries plus China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russian Federation, South Africa and Argentina. Security of Clean Energy Transitions 1. Prioritising energy efficiency in emerging economies PAGE | 10 IEA. All rights reserved. to follow the recommendations at home and in their workplace, it would save 220 million barrels of oil a year and around 17 bcm of natural gas. Reductions in electricity demand can also avoid the need for investment in new generating capacity, as well as in the required transmission and distribution infrastructure and storage facilities. In emerging economies, efficiency gains are particularly important to ensure the reliability and quality of energy supply services, to allow currently suppressed demand to come online without overstraining existing electricity networks, and to allow economic development. Achieving multiple benefits from action on energy efficiency is particularly important in the context of rising and fluctuating energy prices, which disproportionally hurt the most vulnerable segments of the population, and the economies of developing and emerging economies. People-centred and inclusive approaches and the prioritisation of energy efficiency are means to boost affordability and ensure that we are not reversing progress towards universal access to electricity (see also IEA (2021), Recommendations of the Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions). The Covid-19 crisis put an end to several years of continued progress and worsened the already low energy purchasing power of households in developing countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of people without access increased in 2020 for the first time since 2013. The region’s share of the global population without access to electricity rose to 77%, from 74% before the pandemic. Following the pathway set out in the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (Net Zero Scenario), the global economy could grow by 40% by 2030 and support around 800 million more people with access to electricity, all with a 5% lower final energy demand. Compared to the IEA Stated Policies Scenario, energy efficiency and related measures in the Net Zero Scenario would reduce annual CO2 emissions by 5 Gt in 2030. Over 80% of these additional efficiency gains result in overall net cost savings to consumers, helping to lower energy bills and cushion the effects of price volatility. Achieving 95 EJ of annual energy savings could contribute to lowering household energy bills by at least USD 650 billion per year by 2030. This calls for strong and early action on energy efficiency by 2030. Governments play an essential role in ensuring the necessary front-loading and prioritisation of energy efficiency action. Recognising the value of early action on energy efficiency as a means of cost-effectively accelerating progress towards net zero energy targets, and increasing energy security and resilience, over 20 governments at the 7th IEA Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency signed a joint statement calling on all governments and other actors to strengthen their action.