碳经济学：重新设想欧洲能源系统（英）-高盛.pdf

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. EQUITY RESEARCH | July 20, 2022 | 5:16 PM BST Michele Della Vigna, CFA +44 20 7552-9383 michele.dellavigna@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Zoe Clarke +44 20 7051-2816 zoe.clarke@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Re-Imagining Europe s Energy System Can Europe strengthen its energy independence in the face of the Russia-Ukraine crisis without compromising its climate change goals? We use our Carbonomics framework to model the evolution of Europe’s energy system towards a lower cost, lower imports, lower carbon system. Our analysis leads to five main conclusions: 1) Cumulative infrastructure investments of €10 trn will be needed by 2050 for Europe s energy transformation, reaching the equivalent of 2% of GDP by 2030. This incremental investment is fully offset by a €10 trn reduction in net energy imports, reducing the net energy import dependency rate of the region from 58% to 15% by 2050. Efficient financing and a reliable regulatory environment are key to bridge the 10-year time gap between the two flows. 2) Europe s new energy system would improve affordability. We estimate the direct energy cost to the average European consumer could be reduced by c.40% vs 2021 and c.60% from the peak (2022) owing to improved energy efficiency, lower cost LNG, cheaper renewables and better regional connectivity. 3) Natural gas remains key to Europe’s energy supply for the next two decades and we believe it is in Europe’s interest to sign up to an additional 40 mtpa of 15-yr LNG contracts, and potentially up to another 50 mtpa of 10-yr LNG contracts, to improve security of supply and drive a new cycle of LNG construction. We identify 15 new LNG projects for a total of 155 mtpa that can deliver gas to Europe at 2% of GDP by 2030 and peaking by mid-2030s. Annual infrastructure investments for EU27+UK by 2050 (€bn) 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.01 10.1 - 2 4 6 8 10 12 RES power Power networks Energy storage (batteries) Transp. charging and refueling infra Bioenergy plants H2 prod plants H2 strorage, transport, imports infra Buildings heat pumps Buildings efficiency upgrades Industrial processes incl. CCUS Nat. sinks Cum. investments to 2050 Cumulativ e inv estme nts for Europe on the path t o net z e ro b y 2050 ( €tn) Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% - 100 200 300 400 500 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 25 20 26 20 27 20 28 20 29 20 30 20 31 20 32 20 33 20 34 20 35 20 36 20 37 20 38 20 39 20 40 20 41 20 42 20 43 20 44 20 45 20 46 20 47 20 48 20 49 20 50 A nnual infrastructure inv estments for Europe s p ath to net z ero (€bn) Industrial plant upgrades (incl. CCUS) Hydrogen production, storage, transport Natural sinks Bioenergy plants Transport charging and refueling stations Insulation retrofits and other efficiency Heat pumps Power generation Energy storage (batteries) Power networks Annual investments as a % of GDP (RHS) Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 5: The infrastructure investment can be largely recouped through lower net energy imports, yet with a decade lag. EU27+UK annual required infrastructure investments vs net annual energy import savings (€bn) Exhibit 6: .contributing to a material improvement in the balance of payments for the region. EU27+UK net energy product imports value (€bn) - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 25 20 26 20 27 20 28 20 29 20 30 20 31 20 32 20 33 20 34 20 35 20 36 20 37 20 38 20 39 20 40 20 41 20 42 20 43 20 44 20 45 20 46 20 47 20 48 20 49 20 50 EU27+UK Infrastructure inv estments r equired v s n et e nergy imports sav ings (€bn) Savings from energy imports reduction Required infrastructure investments Net energy imports savings: €9.8 tn Required infrastructure investments: € 10 tn -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 20 17 20 19 20 21 20 23 20 25 20 27 20 29 20 31 20 33 20 35 20 37 20 39 20 41 20 43 20 45 20 47 20 49 EU27+UK Net energy p roducts imports v alue ( € bn) Petroleum oil Natural gas Solid fossil fuels Clean hydrogen Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Eurostat (historical), Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 20 July 2022 3 Goldman Sachs Carbonomics Exhibit 7: Renewable energy (renewable power, hydrogen and bioenergy) becomes 75% of the total gross available energy mix for Europe by 2050. EU27+UK Gross available energy mix (PJ) Exhibit 8: . with power sitting at the heart of Europe’s energy evolution, more than doubling to 2050. EU27+UK power generation and mix over time (TWh) 0% 20% 40% 60% 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 20 19 20 21 20 23 20 25 20 27 20 29 20 31 20 33 20 35 20 37 20 39 20 41 20 43 20 45 20 47 20 49 EU 27+UK G r oss av ailable energy mix (% ) Solid fossil fuels Natural gas Oil and petroleum products Nuclear heat RES power RES power for green hydrogen and hydrogen imports Bioenergy - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20 20 22 20 24 20 26 20 28 20 30 20 32 20 34 20 36 20 38 20 40 20 42 20 44 20 46 20 48 20 50EU27+UK pow er generation (TWh) Natural gas (incl.other gases) Solid fossil fuels Oil and other products Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Bioenergy Other RES Other Source: Eurostat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Eurostat (historical), Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 9: .as electrification and renewables contribute to improved energy efficiency and more affordable energy for the average European energy consumer. Average European direct energy cost for the consumer (€/capita) Exhibit 10: Power generation in Europe has already started to transform over the past two decades EU27+UK power generation mix over time (%) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 20 19 20 21 20 23 20 25 20 27 20 29 20 31 20 33 20 35 20 37 20 39 20 41 20 43 20 45 20 47 20 49 A v erage European direct energy cost per capita associated w ith final ener gy consumption (€/capit a) Gasoline/diesel fuel cost Natural gas cost Power cost c.60% reduction from the 2022 peak c40% reduction vs 2021 c.36% reduction from the 2022 peak c.6% reduction vs 2021 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20 20 22 20 24 20 26 20 28 20 30 20 32 20 34 20 36 20 38 20 40 20 42 20 44 20 46 20 48 20 50 EU27+UK pow er generation mix (% ) Solid fossil fuels Natural gas (incl. CCUS long term) Oil and other products Hydro Solar Wind (onshore and offshore) Bioenergy Other RES Nuclear Other Source: Eurostat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Eurostat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 11: owing to its more favourable position on Europe’s de-carbonization cost curve, mostly occupying the spectrum requiring 2% of GDP by 2030 We estimate a total infrastructure investment opportunity of €10 trn by 2050 for the transformation of Europe’s energy system (EU27+UK) on the path to net zero carbon, implying an average annual green infrastructure investment opportunity of €350bn pa. We note that this figure focuses solely on incremental infrastructure investments and does not include maintenance and other end-use capex. We estimate that this infrastructure investment can be entirely recouped from the savings of net energy imports. Our model sees a material reduction in the energy dependency rate of the region, from c.58% currently to 80% of its natural gas needs and with that supply largely dominated by a handful of regions: Russia, Norway, Algeria, Nigeria, the US, and Qatar. This is no longer sustainable, in light of the current geopolitical landscape. We incorporate the EU’s ambition for 2/3 reduction in Russian gas imports by the end of this year and zero gas imports by the end of this decade (2030) into our modelling, concluding that the shortfall between gross natural gas demand and available domestic supply plus other ex-Russian pipelines imports has to be met with incremental LNG imported volumes. This analysis suggests it is in Europe’s interest to sign up to an additional 40 mtpa of 15-yr LNG contracts, and potentially up to another 50 mtpa of 10-yr LNG contracts, to improve security and diversification of supply – and allow a new generation of LNG projects to be developed for Europe. We leverage our Top projects database to identify 15 projects that could supply up to a total of 155 mtpa pa to Europe with a long-term LNG price of $8-12/mcf. On the oil side, our European energy system evolution model shows oil demand increasing to the middle of this decade, largely driven by the ongoing recovery of aviation, before starting a gradual decline which accelerates post 2030, driven by the higher penetration of EVs and better charging infrastructure. We estimate that the next major cycle of refinery closures in Europe will only be needed by 2027, when the refining utilisation rate falls below the historical average for the region. 20 July 2022 8 Goldman Sachs Carbonomics Renewable power is at the heart of Europe’s energy system re-invention, with power demand more than doubling by 2050, and green hydrogen accounting for c.15% of Europe’s energy mix long term. Electrification is the most important driver of lower emissions and lower energy import dependence in our modelling, with a more than doubling of European power demand by 2050. However renewable power intermittency and seasonality create the need for large-scale energy storage solutions, of which green hydrogen will be the most important, in our view. Hydrogen currently has a niche role, mostly in chems and refining. However, we see hydrogen emerging as a critical technology in the long term, addressing the seasonal discrepancy between renewable power supply and power demand and aiding the de-carbonization of heavy industry and transport. Accelerated electrification of heating is likely to result in large power demand and supply imbalances, making the role of a molecular seasonal energy storage solution vital. We identify three key roles of clean hydrogen in the power generation industry that can enhance system resilience and enable higher uptake of renewable power, while on the industrial side, hydrogen is the natural successor of natural gas and coal for diversification of energy supply in energy-intense industrial processes. Overall, we believe hydrogen demand for Europe will surpass 60 Mtpa long term, in a scenario consistent with ‘Fit for 55’, reaching c.15% of the region’s final energy consumption and creating a c.€0.74 tn cumulative investment opportunity in the direct hydrogen supply chain in Europe. The map of energy flows is transformed by emerging low cost renewables and green hydrogen exporters including Iberia, parts of Southern Europe and the UK The energy import dependency of Europe can be reduced materially, with inter-regional hydrocarbon flows between Europe and the rest of the world being substituted by clean energy intra-regional flows between European countries – in a more inter-connected European system of power networks and hydrogen pipelines. We conduct an analysis to address the competitive positioning of key European countries across the most critical energy technologies of the future: solar, onshore wind, offshore wind, green hydrogen. We also note the inclusion of the population density measure for context regarding the potential space constrains associated with the scale-up of these technologies onshore. The map of European energy flows can be transformed by emerging low cost renewables and green hydrogen exporters including Iberia, parts of Southern Europe (Southeastern France, Italy, Greece) and the UK (offshore wind). Iberia in particular screens very attractively on the potential of solar energy and low cost production of green hydrogen (both in terms of the implied solar PV LCOE and with regards to space availability and population density) whilst the UK screens attractively in terms of its cost positioning in offshore wind. 20 July 2022 9 Goldman Sachs Carbonomics Re-Inventing Europe’s energy system: A sectoral modeling approach consistent with the de-carbonization ambitions of the region Laying out the path for Europe’s energy evolution: A sectoral modeling approach leveraging our Carbonomics framework In this report, we introduce our model for the evolution of the European energy system over the coming decades towards a more secure, more affordable and more sustainable system, consistent with achieving net zero by 2050 and the key ambitions laid out by the European Commission as part of the ‘Fit for 55’ package (at least 55% net emissions reduction by 2030 vs 1990 level, at least 40% renewable energy sources in the overall energy mix by 2030). For the purpose of this modeling and analysis, reference to the Europe region throughout this report refers to the EU27 countries plus the UK (formerly referred to as EU28), unless otherwise indicated. The methodology we adopted with regards to our energy modeling is summarized in Exhibit 20 below, and explained in detail in the section following this exhibit. The key terminology and definitions of the terms outlined in the exhibit and throughout this report are consistent with the energy balances terminology adopted by Eurostat (the European Statistical Office, a directorate-general of the European Commission). Exhibit 20: A method overview for the GS European energy system models and analysis Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 20 July 2022 10 Goldman Sachs Carbonomics Step 1: As a first step, we leverage our Carbonomics framework and adopt a sectoral approach to model the final energy consumption evolution of each key energy consuming sector in Europe (denoted as Step 1 in Exhibit 20): buildings (residential, commercial/services and public), transport (light and heavy-duty road transport, aviation, shipping, rail), industry (including industrial combustion, industrial processes, fuel extraction, other fugitive and waste) and agriculture. The final energy consumption is defined as the total energy consumed by the end users in each of these sectors, the energy which reaches the final consumer’s door and excludes that which is used by the energy sector itself. As mentioned, overall, for the modeling of the final energy consumption, we leverage our Carbonomics framework to construct this model, and we adopt a sect