为能源转型重新组织电力系统（英）-IRENA.pdf

RE-organising power systems for the transition© IRENA 2022 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. ISBN 978-92-9260-450-9 Citation: IRENA (2022), RE-organising power systems for the transition, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The report was developed under the guidance of Rabia Ferroukhi (Director, IRENA Knowledge, Policy and Finance Centre) and Ute Collier and authored by Xavier García-Casals, Sara Pizzinato (consultant) and Emanuele Bianco. The report benefited also from the reviews and comments of experts, including Arina Anisie and Paul Komor (IRENA), Álvaro López-Peña and Pedro Linares (Comillas Pontifical University), Anna Skowron (World Future Council), Esnault Benoit (Commission de Régulation de l’Énergie, France), Lucio Scandizzo (University of Rome “Tor Vergata”), Mahmoud N’daw (ECREEE), Pancho Ndebele (Envelo) and Virginia Echinope (Dirección Nacional de Energía, Uruguay). IRENA is grateful for the inputs received from Antonella Battaglini and Antina Sander (Renewable Grid Initiative), Daniel Chávez and Lavinia Steinfort (Transnational Institute), Frauke Thies (smartEn), John Treat (Trade Unions for Energy Democracy), Jonathan Cannard, Kea Seipato and Sandra Van Niekerk (Alternative Information and Development Centre), Kristine Bianchi and Wilson Sierra (Dirección Nacional de Energía, Uruguay), Laura Izano (SEPSE), María Colom and José Donoso Unión Española Fotovoltaica (Unión Española Fotovoltaica), Miguel Rodrigo Gonzalo (IDAE, Spain), Natalia Fabra (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Sean Sweeney (CUNY School of Labor and Urban Studies) and Sven Teske (University of Technology, Sydney). DISCLAIMER This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. ABOUT IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that serves as the principal platform for co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge, and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org3 FOREWORD Together, we must embark upon a rapid and sustained energy transition to avoid the deeply disruptive impacts of the climate crisis. As outlined in IRENA’s flagship World Energy Transitions Outlook 2022, the power sector lies at the heart of this transition, which requires increased electrification of end uses and the adoption of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and solar PV as the main sources of electricity. In this context, it is essential to establish robust structures to guide the procurement of electricity and ensure the flexibility required for a just and sustainable renewable era. Today’s power systems, structured around large centralised and dispatchable power plants, require more than ‘quick fixes’; rather, a holistic approach is required to address all key aspects – from technology and economy to society and the environment. Otherwise, misalignments between electricity procurement mechanisms, regulations and policies will continue to hinder a successful energy transition. These misalignments have drawn considerable political and media attention in recent years, particularly in response to the sharp decrease in energy demand amid the national lockdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic. While this paved the way for a higher share of variable renewable energy in the power mix, electricity prices fell to such levels as to create barriers to merchant renewable plants. Conversely, during the more recent natural gas supply crisis, marginal fossil fuel generators in liberalised contexts have raised electricity prices to unforeseen levels, diverting the focus of policy actions away from the barriers to the energy transition posed by low-price events. Against this background, RE-organising power systems for the transition aims to inform discussions on the role of power system organisational structures in facilitating and accelerating the energy transition. It discusses enablers and barriers to the transition, including misalignments inside and outside power systems, as well as the role of competition and its balance with regulatory and collaborative components. The report also outlines a power system organisational structure fit for the renewable era that can support low-cost renewable generation and long-term investments in system adequacy, complemented by diverse flexibility options to ensure a reliable power system. I am confident that the insights offered by this report will prove useful in informing much-needed discussions on this essential aspect of the energy transition. Francesco La Camera Director-General, IRENACONTENTS FOREWORD 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 PART 1 A HOLISTIC VISION OF POWER SYSTEM ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURES IN A TRANSITION CONTEXT 23 0 1 THE NEED AND URGENCY FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION: ADDRESSING CLIMATE BREAKDOWN 24 1.1. The need to reshape the energy mix 27 1.2. The power system and the wider picture 31 1.3. Power system organisational structures 33 1.4. Misalignments during the transition 35 02 THE TRANSITION’S IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POWER SYSTEM 36 2.1. The cross-cutting dimensions 36 2.2. Key elements of the energy transition 42 03 CONTEXTUALISING POWER SYSTEM STRUCTURES 54 3.1. Power system goals 55 3.2. Different ways to organise the power system 56 3.3. Elements of power system structures 65 3.4. Supporting the transition 75 4PART 2 ENABLING THE TRANSITION OF POWER SYSTEM ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURES 79 04 MISALIGNMENTS 80 4.1. Misalignments within the power system 81 4.2. Misalignments beyond the power system 97 IN FOCUS 109 Higher volatility in wholesale market prices as the energy transition unfolds. The Spanish case 109 05 THE ROLE OF MARKETS: ENABLERS OR BARRIERS? 116 5.1. Pre-transition learnings about markets in power systems 118 5.2. Could competition constrain transition goals? 121 5.3. Transcending competition through collaborative approaches 132 06 A VISION FOR RETHINKING POWER SYSTEM ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURES: THE DUAL PROCUREMENT MECHANISM 140 6.1. Overall view 140 6.2. Dual procurement 143 6.3. Transitioning to dual procurement 168 REFERENCES 172 56 FIGURES FIGURE S-1. Cross-cutting transformations for a fair and just energy transition from the power, energy, social, economic and Earth systems 12 FIGURE S-2. Unequal advance in different layers of the energy transition, with organisational structures lagging 14 FIGURE S-3. The dual procurement concept 19 FIGURE S-4. Convergence of organisational structures following the liberalised and public ownership pathways 22 FIGURE 1. Linear mitigation pathways for complying with the available carbon budgets 26 FIGURE 2. Global total primary energy supply, 2009 and 2019 27 FIGURE 3. Final energy consumption by sector in 2019 28 FIGURE 4. Sector coupling 29 FIGURE 5. Global net added power generation capacity, 2001 to 2021 30 FIGURE 6. The embedded nature of power systems 31 FIGURE 7. Elements and evolution of the power system 33 FIGURE 8. Cross-cutting transformations for a fair and just energy transition from the power, energy, social, economic and Earth systems 37 FIGURE 9. Shares of renewable energy in final electricity consumption, selected countries, 2019. 55 FIGURE 10. Power system goals 56 FIGURE 11. Regulated power system – illustrative 59 FIGURE 12. Liberalised power system structures – illustrative 61 FIGURE 13. Vertical unbundling of the power system – illustrative 62 FIGURE 14. Horizontal unbundling of the generation and distribution/retail power system layers – illustrative 63 FIGURE 15. Main elements of power system procurement mechanism 66 FIGURE 16. Marginal pricing 69 FIGURE 17. Scarcity event 70 FIGURE 18. Average household (top) and industrial (bottom) electricity prices in selected European countries, 2020 74 FIGURE 19. Regulated payments for renewable power generation 76 FIGURE 20. Global weighted average prices resulting from auctions, 2010 to 2018, and capacity awarded each year 77 FIGURE 21. Renewables penetration reduces wholesale prices under current marginal pricing allocation mechanisms 82 FIGURE 22. The capacity payments feedback loop 84 FIGURE 23. Grid services and technologies 85 FIGURE 24. Average household electricity bills by component in selected European countries, 2020 87 FIGURE 25. The grid death spiral 88 FIGURE 26. Cost, price and value of electricity (illustrative annual averages) 97 FIGURE 27. IRENA’s welfare index: Structure with its three dimensions and six indicators and results of its global improvement by 2030 and 2050 during the REmap transition roadmap 99 FIGURE 28. Difference in jobs in renewable energy, energy sector and economy wide from 2017 to 2050 for the transition scenario (TES) (left panel) and between the planned (PES) and transition (TES) scenarios in 2050 (right panel). Results for Southern Europe and the Gulf Cooperation Council. 1017 FIGURE 29. GDP growth rate as a function of the CO 2 emission mitigation rate for different transition pathways characterised by the compound annual growth rate of energy intensity (EI) and the emissions intensity of energy (EmIE) 105 FIGURE 30. Proportion of women in senior and middle management positions in selected countries, 2017 108 FIGURE 31. Monthly average cleared prices in day-ahead market, electricity demand, renewabe energy share, and share of hours when VRE set the price in Iberia’s wholesale market, 2020-2022 110 FIGURE 32. Variable renewable energy average and hourly peak shares by month, 2019 versus 2020 111 FIGURE 34. Supply and demand curves in the wholesale power market in Spain, 12 p.m. on 16 April 2020 112 FIGURE 35. Supply and demand curves in the wholesale power market in Spain, 12 p.m. on 18 November 2021 113 FIGURE 36. Competitive components in power system organisational structures 118 FIGURE 37. Evolution of competition elements in developing countries’ power sectors 119 FIGURE 38. Adoption of power sector liberalisation reform at the global level: Comparison between OECD and Global South countries on average 120 FIGURE 39. Cases of de-privatised public services mapped at the global level 122 FIGURE 40. Impact on the energy transition of how the required power system structure updates are addressed (fixes versus re-design to be fit) 143 FIGURE 41. Unequal advance in the different transition layers 144 FIGURE 42. The dual procurement proposal 146 FIGURE 43. Energy auctions and public ownership: Two LT-RE procurement pathways 152 FIGURE 44. ST-Flex procurement to address deviations between generation from LT-RE procurement and actual demand 157 FIGURE 45. Difference between administrative price caps and estimated VOLL in selected EU countries 160 FIGURE 46. The two pillars of dual procurement (LT-RE and ST-Flex) as an evolution from current experiences within a holistic framework 169 FIGURE 47. Convergence of organisational structures following the liberalised and public ownership pathways 171BOXES BOX 1. Energy access and affordability 32 BOX 2. Systemic changes introduced by deployment of variable renewable energy 43 BOX 3. Demand, system flexibility and electrification paradigm changes 45 BOX 4. Digitalisation and the power system changes it can trigger 47 BOX 5. Distribution of generation and other services: Systemic implications 48 BOX 6. Evolution of the actor landscape: New, active and connected participants 51 BOX 7. The “regulation versus liberalisation” dichotomy 57 BOX 8. Power purchase agreements 60 BOX 9. Unbundling the power system 62 BOX 10. Transmission system operator and independent system operator systems 64 BOX 11. The Brazilian case 68 BOX 12. Marginal pricing and scarcity events 69 BOX 13. Aligning price and value for distributed generation 89 BOX 14. The cost, price and value dimensions of electricity 91 BOX 15. A RE-alignment: Incorporating cost-benefit evaluations into the selection process, Brazil 93 BOX 16. Lack of recognition of the social and environmental value of energy 94 BOX 17. Fossil fuel subsidies 96 BOX 18. Pre-transition misalignments that can be mitigated by transitioning towards renewables: The case of climate change and air pollution 99 BOX 19. Decoupling energy and CO 2 emissions from GDP growth 103 BOX 20. Adoption of power system liberalisation reform at the global level 120 BOX 21. Paris: Reverting more than 30 years of water management privatisation 123 BOX 22. State ownership and renewable energy technology adoption: The case of the EU 124 BOX 23. Keys and challenges for social value creation with renewable power plant deployment 128 BOX 24. Surplus renewable electricity exchange and collaborative approaches to alleviate energy poverty 135 BOX 25. Co-operation with community-led initiatives in regulated frameworks 136 BOX 26. Requirements for evolving from current organisational structures towards dual procurement 148 BOX 27. Summary of the long-term renewable energy procurement mechanism 149 BOX 28. LT-RE procurement options go beyond auctions 151 BOX 29. Summary of the short-term flexibility procurement mechanism 155 BOX 30. The end of additional regulated payments and subsidies? 161 BOX 31. Demand-side participation in the ancillary market 164 BOX 32. EFR auction in the United Kingdom 165 BOX 33. Ramping products in CAISO 165 BOX 34. Australia’s embedded netw