2019年 中国走向低碳未来（英文版）

1 CHINA HEADS TO LOW-CARBON FUTURE A Briefing by the Energy it is also the world’s largest producer of wind turbines and solar panels, lowering the cost of both technologies significantly in recent years. By 2020, China plans to install 200GW of wind energy capacity. It also plans 100GW of solar PV capacity by 2020 – almost as much as Japan and Germany between them expect to have installed by 2030. Recent analysis suggests this target will rise to 150GW 9 . Such rapid growth comes with considerable challenges, and insufficient grid infrastructure has tended to hamper the connection of clean power sources. To meet this challenge and get renewable energy on the grid, Ultra-High-Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission is being built across China. The State Grid Corporation has already invested 500 billion yuan (almost £52 billion) to extend the UHV grid and plans to invest a further 420 billion yuan (more than £43 billion) in 2015 10 . By 2020, UHV and other intra-regional transmission capacity will reach 400GW, enough to connect all planned coal, hydro, nuclear and wind power to areas with high demand. 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 2014201320122011201020092000 Source: IRENATotal installed renewable energy capacity (MW) 4 Furthermore, China’s National Energy Administration has recently announced it will invest 2 trillion yuan (around £207 billion) in the power distribution network 11 over the period 2015 to 2020. In the meantime, a renewable energy quota system 12 is being introduced in China’s electricity sector as part of recent power sector reforms, under which each province will be responsible for ensuring that a certain proportion (currently set between 2 and 10%) of electricity demand will be met from wind, solar and biomass. Other power sector reform plans include introducing more market-driven competition in the electricity sector and redesigning the pricing system. Analysts point to the likelihood of green electricity tariff schemes in the new pricing system. China has also resumed its nuclear expansion after a year’s pause for a safety review occasioned by the Fukushima disaster in 2011. As of June 2015, China had 27 operating nuclear power reactors (accounting for 2.4% of the total electricity production in China in 2014) with a further 24 reactors under construction. By 2020, nuclear power is due to provide 58GW of capacity, and some 150GW by 2030 13 . Despite the fast growth in renewables, the main energy source in China (accounting for around 75% of electricity production) is still coal. The country is the world’s largest coal producer, consumer and importer. Coal is responsible for most of China’s greenhouse gas emissions, as well as severe air and water pollution. However, even here there are signs of change. Coal is in structural decline: in 2014, demand fell for the first time in over a decade –by 2.9% compared with the previous year – even as the economy continued to grow. In the first four months of 2015, China consumed 8% less coal than in the same period last year (indicating a 5% year-on-year fall in CO2 emissions over the same period). Not only is the country importing less coal (imports were down nearly 34% in the first seven months in 2015 on the same period last year), but the government has also constrained coal production domestically (halting new mining in eastern China). In 2013, China introduced its first initiatives to cap the use of coal, aiming to restrict its share in the national energy mix to 65% by 2017 14 . Based on this and other factors, including China’s UN commitment to cut the carbon intensity of its economy by 60-65% by 2030 from 2005 levels (see below), analysts suggest China’s greenhouse gas emissions may peak by 2025, a full five years ahead of the date it has pledged to the UN. China has also introduced ambitious energy efficiency policies, such as the Top 10,000 Energy- Consuming Enterprises programme under the 12th FYP. It covers around 17,000 major firms – accounting for around two-thirds of total energy consumption – and aims to save energy equivalent to 250 million tonnes of coal over the course of the plan. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 USA Europe Japan China 20142013201220112010 Source: IRENA Annual solar capacity installed (MW) China: Coal vs. GDP Source: Greenpeace Indexed to the year 2000 (=100) GDP Coal consumption 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 5 1 Trina Solar China 2 Yingli Green Energy China 3 Canadian Solar Canada 4 Hanwha SolarOne South Korea 5 Jinko Solar China 6 JA Solar China 7 Sharp Japan 8 ReneSola USA 9 First Solar USA 10 Kyocera Japan At the same time, China is catching up fast in innovation, in all sectors including low-carbon energy. From 2008 to 2012 its research and development (R and in terms of supplying the essential infrastructure for a world decarbonising quickly, China’s companies in areas such as wind turbines and solar panels are well-placed to be mass-market providers. Already, among the world’s top 10 wind turbine manufactures, three are from China 17 ; China is also the largest producer of solar PV modules 18 , accounting for more than 60% of annual production in 2012 and 2013. Putting a price on carbon During his state visit to the United States in September 2015, President Xi Jinping announced that a national cap-and-trade programme for greenhouse gas emissions would be introduced in 2017. It marks the culmination of a concept first unveiled in the 12th FYP in 2010. Under the Emission Trading System (ETS), the government will set limits for greenhouse gas emissions and allow businesses to trade permits. (A similar mechanism, the EU ETS, has been in operation in Europe since 2005). Starting with Shenzhen in 2013, China has launched a total of seven ETS pilots in five municipalities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Chongqing) and two provinces (Hubei and Guangdong), representing a variety of economic, social and geographic contexts, and covering a total population of 199 million. These pilot schemes cover 30% of China’s annual GDP and 20% of its carbon emissions. China therefore already houses the world’s second largest carbon market after the EU ETS, and the national scheme will be the world’s biggest when it starts in 2017. After some fluctuations, the carbon price in mid-2015 ranges from 9 yuan (around 93 pence) per tonne (in Shanghai) to 42 yuan (around £4.32) per tonne (in Beijing); an average price expectation for the national ETS in 2017 is 39 yuan (around £4.01) per tonne. World’s top 10 solar panel manufacturers Source: IHS CHINA’S LOW-CARBON POLICY and under the high renewable energy penetration scenario, China will be able to peak fossil energy consumption and carbon emission by 2025” China 2050 High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario and Roadmap Source: Greenpeace 6 According to the Washington DC-based China Environment Forum, more than 38 million tonnes of carbon dioxide had been traded in the secondary carbon markets of the seven pilot regions 19 by July 2015. In addition, several cities (including Hangzhou and Qingdao) and provinces (Zhejiang, Gansu and Anhui) have begun to plan their own emissions trading systems, and pilots for low-carbon provinces and cities have been underway since 2010 in which local governments would introduce and explore multiple carbon control measures. China’s changing position in global negotiations At the Copenhagen climate summit in 2009, China was widely depicted as being one of the “laggards” that blocked a global treaty to control carbon emissions. Just six years on, its approach to the ongoing UN climate negotiations is very different. At the time of Copenhagen, China, like virtually every other country, outlined its plans for controlling its own emissions. It followed the norm for developing countries of a pledge to reduce “emissions intensity” – the amount of greenhouse gas emitted per unit of GDP. Its target of a 40-45% cut by 2020 placed it among the more ambitious nations in the developing world. Six years on, emissions intensity has been reduced by 33% 20 , and China is broadly on course to meet its 2020 target. Along with the announcement for a national cap- and-trade programme, China has pledged 20 billion yuan (more than £2 billion) to support developing countries to combat climate change, via the new China South-South Climate Cooperation Fund. This is a major development, as the assumption within the UN climate convention process has been that only developed nations would put such funding forward. The most significant recent moves have been two joint announcements from China and the United States. Not only are these nations the biggest two greenhouse gas emitters by far, accounting for around half of the global total, but mistrust between the two was also a significant factor behind the failure in Copenhagen, with relations on climate change remaining frosty in the few years afterwards. In the first of these bilateral announcements 21 , in November 2014, President Xi pledged that China would peak its carbon emissions by 2030, with efforts to peak earlier. It will also increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 20% by 2030. In June 2015, China officially submitted this plan to the UN climate convention (UNFCCC) 22 , becoming the first emerging economy to unveil its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). In doing so it clarified that this also entails an improvement of 60-65% in emissions intensity by 2030 (on a 2005 baseline). The second bilateral announcement 23 took place in September 2015. The official statement from Presidents Xi and Obama noted that they share a “personal commitment to a successful climate agreement in Paris” – scene of the 2015 UNFCCC summit, at which governments are likely to conclude a new global climate change agreement. The Presidents also outlined a number of unilateral and bilateral work streams, including China’s plan to ensure half of its new urban buildings are “green” by 2020 and to introduce new fuel efficiency standards for heavy goods vehicles by 2019. Taken together, these statements and pledges indicate that relations between the world’s two “emissions superpowers” have moved on hugely in the last six years. International diplomacy – in which the UK has played a leading role – has helped to advance China’s stance towards international negotiations. But far more important is the growing awareness that climate impacts and air pollution pose major threats to development, and the rapidly evolving market for low-carbon goods and services. In short, China’s new approach rests on the fact that its leaders see combatting climate change as being in the national interest. 7 To understand China’s plans to “green” its economy, it is important to identify the multiple challenges the country faces, and the priorities of its government. After three decades of wasteful and highly polluting growth, China now aims to develop a new growth model that addresses both economic and environmental pressures. The assumption that environmental protection entails an economic sacrifice has largely been discarded in China. Rather, the government increasingly considers low-carbon sectors as the drivers of future growth. As the state-owned China Daily puts it 26 : “Unlike the Western countries which only began to address environmental problems after they became rich and transferred their highly polluting manufacturing to developing countries, China has to blaze a new trail in order to achieve sustainable development.” In late 2014, President Xi first introduced the term “new normal” 27 to describe China’s transition to slower, more sustainable and efficient economic growth that avoids the “middle-income trap”, where a country attains a certain income but will get stuck at the level. Environmental concerns are also seen as improving energy security, for example by reducing gas import bills. In 2014, China’s GDP growth was officially 7.4%, in line with the government’s target of 7.5% for the year. In 2015, growth is expected to be 7.1%, and 6.9% 28 by 2017. This is a much slower pace than the annual average of 10% attained in the past three decades. But it is still a medium-to-high growth rate, and meeting it presents multiple challenges – for example, reconciling rapidly growing energy demand with the desire to curb imports and limit air pollution and climate change. The leadership aims to make this growth low-carbon. China 2050 High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario and Roadmap 29 , a report from the high- CHINA’S LOW-CARBON PRIORITIES AND THE ‘NEW NORMAL’ The process of drafting of the 13th FYP started in April 2014. An initial draft is expected in October 2015; the National People’s Congress is expected to endorse the final version in March 2016. The 13th FYP will be the first to start under President Xi’s leadership. Climate change is likely to be a core aspect of the plan. In 2014, Xu Lin, director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Development Planning Department, promised that energy efficiency and environmental protection would be central to the 13th FYP. His department is China’s top economic planning unit; it is responsible for drafting the 13th FYP, and introduced China’s first national climate change plan in 2007. China is also expected to introduce a climate change law this year or next, and future actions on low- carbon development are also likely to include new pollution controls. Throughout his administration, President Xi has called for “significant breakthroughs” in 10 specific areas, including what he calls “ecological civilisation” 24 . This phrase has been fleshed out in concrete policy initiatives aimed at changing the priorities and performance of China’s local officials away from solely achieving economic growth, towards a “lifelong accountability system” that includes environmental performance in political evaluation. Premier Li Keqiang has clarified 25 that an important part of ecological civilisation is the development of a green, low-carbon and recycling economy. THE 13TH FIVE-YEAR PLAN (2016-2020): GOING FOR GREEN “The state shall give priority to the development and utilization of renewable energy in energy development” Article 4, Renewable Energy Law, 2013 CHINA’S LOW-CARBON POLICY and President Xi has also called, in a major 2014 speech, for a “revolution in energy production and consumption” 30 . According to the Scenario and Roadmap, by 2050, renewables will account for over 60% of China’s total energy consumption and more than 85% of its total electricity consumption 31 . These targets are comparable with all but the most ambitious European countries. It also concluded that fossil fuel use and hence carbon emissions could peak by 2025. The Energy Research Institute works under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the study was jointly produced with a number of core en