美国电力部门日间储能的经济潜力（英）--NREL.pdf

A. Will Frazier, Wesley Cole, Paul Denholm, Scott Machen, Nathaniel Gates, and Nate Blair Storage Futures Study Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector Suggested Citation: Frazier, A. Will , Wesley Cole, Paul Denholm, Scott Machen, Nathaniel Gates, and Nate Blair. 2021. Storage Futures Study: Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-77449. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77449.pdf. Storage Futures Study Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector A. Will Frazier, Wesley Cole, Paul Denholm, Scott Machen, Nathaniel Gates, and Nate Blair NOTICE This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided by U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office, U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office, U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Water Power Technologies Office and U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Strategic Analysis. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991 and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are available free via www.OSTI.gov. Cover Photos by Dennis Schroeder: (clockwise, left to right) NREL 51934, NREL 45897, NREL 42160, NREL 45891, NREL 48097, NREL 46526. NREL prints on paper that contains recycled content. iii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. Preface This report is one in a series of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. The research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of publications. The table on the next page lists the planned publications and specific research topics they will examine under the SFS. This report, the third in the SFS series, performs a set of cost-driven scenarios using the ReEDS model to examine both grid-scale storage deployment as well as relationships between this deployment and variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. This report assesses the economic potential for utility-scale diurnal storage and the effects that storage capacity additions could have on power system evolution and operations The SFS series provides data and analysis in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Storage Grand Challenge, a comprehensive program to accelerate the development, commercialization, and utilization of next-generation energy storage technologies and sustain American global leadership in energy storage. The Energy Storage Grand Challenge employs a use case framework to ensure storage technologies can cost-effectively meet specific needs, and it incorporates a broad range of technologies in several categories: electrochemical, electromechanical, thermal, flexible generation, flexible buildings, and power electronics. More information, any supporting data associated with this report, links to other reports in the series, and other information about the broader study are available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/storage-futures.html. iv This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. Title Description Relation to this Report The Four Phases of Storage Deployment: A Framework for the Expanding Role of Storage in the U.S. Power System Explores the roles and opportunities for new, cost-competitive stationary energy storage with a conceptual framework based on four phases of current and potential future storage deployment, and presents a value proposition for energy storage that could result in cost-effective deployments reaching hundreds of gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity Provides broader context on the implications of the cost and performance characteristics discussed in this report, including the specific grid services they may enable in various phases of storage deployment. This framework is supported by the results of scenarios in this report. Energy Storage Technology Modeling Input Data Report Reviews the current characteristics of a broad range of mechanical, thermal, and electrochemical storage technologies with application to the power sector. Provides current and future projections of cost, performance characteristics, and locational availability of specific commercial technologies already deployed, including lithium-ion battery systems and pumped storage hydropower. Provides detailed background around the battery and PSH cost and performance values used as inputs to the modeling performed in this report. Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector Assesses the economic potential for utility- scale diurnal storage and the effects that storage capacity additions could have on power system evolution and operations This report. Distributed Storage Customer Adoption Scenarios Assesses the customer adoption of distributed diurnal storage for several future scenarios and the implications for the deployment of distributed generation and power system evolution Analyzes distributed storage adoption scenarios to test the various cost trajectories and assumptions in parallel to the grid storage deployments modeled in this report. Grid Operational Implications of Widespread Storage Deployment Assesses the operation and associated value streams of energy storage for several power system evolution scenarios and explores the implications of seasonal storage on grid operations Considers the operational implications of storage deployment and grid evolution scenarios to examine and expand on the grid-scale scenario results found with ReEDS in this report Storage Futures Study: Executive Summary and Synthesis of Findings Synthesizes and summarizes findings from the entire series and related analyses and reports, and identifies topics for further research Includes a discussion of all other aspects of the study and provides context for the results of this report v This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. Acknowledgments We would like to acknowledge the contributions of the entire Storage Futures Study team as well as our U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Strategic Analysis colleagues as core contributors to this document. Those contributors include Chad Augustine, Ben Sigrin, Kevin McCabe, and Ashreeta Prasanna from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Kara Podkaminer from DOE. We would also acknowledge the feedback and contributions of other NREL staff, including Chad Hunter, Evan Reznicek, Michael Penev, Greg Stark, Vignesh Ramasamy, David Feldman, and Trieu Mai, We also would like to thank the technical review committee for input, including Doug Arent (NREL/Chair), Paul Albertus, Ines Azevedo, Ryan Wiser, Susan Babinec, Aaron Bloom, Chris Namovicz, Arvind Jaggi, Keith Parks, Kiran Kumaraswamy, Granger Morgan, Cara Marcy, Vincent Sprenkle, Oliver Schmidt, David Rosner, John Gavan, and Howard Gruenspecht. Finally, additional thoughts and suggestions came from various technical experts at DOE, including Paul Spitsen, Kathryn Jackson, Neha Rustagi, Marc Melaina, Andrew Dawson, Adria Brooks, Sam Baldwin, Sarah Garman. This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE- AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided by U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office, U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office, U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Water Power Technologies Office and U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Strategic Analysis. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes. vi This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. Executive Summary The Storage Futures Study (SFS) is a multiyear research project to explore the role and impact of energy storage in the evolving electricity sector of the United States. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. This report models the evolution of diurnal storage (12 hours) within the U.S. electricity sector from 2020 through 2050 using a least-cost optimization framework across multiple cost scenarios based upon existing policies. In this first comprehensive national U.S. analysis evaluating diurnal storage against other resources, we find that diurnal storage is extremely competitive on an economic basis. We find significant market potential for diurnal energy storage across a variety of scenarios using different cost and performance assumptions for storage, wind, solar photovoltaics (PV), and natural gas. Across all scenarios modelled deployment for energy storage exceeds 125 GW by 2050, more than a five-fold increase from the current installed storage capacity of 23 GW in 2020 (the majority of which is pumped-hydro). For battery storage, there is at least 3,000 times more battery capacity in 2050 than exists today (Figure ES-1). Depending on cost trajectories and other variables 2050 storage deployment ranges from 130 to 680 GW, indicating a rapidly expanding opportunity for diurnal storage in the power sector. These results, based upon technology cost reductions consistent with the 2020 NREL Standard Scenarios paired with updated battery cost projections (Augustine and Blair, 2021), highlight the fundamental drivers of diurnal storage deployment and the increasing competitiveness of storage resources. Across these cost-driven scenarios, variable renewable energy (VRE) reaches penetrations of 43-81%, but does not achieve the deployment needed to meet deep decarbonization goals. Future work will consider scenarios with an accelerated transition to a clean energy grid by 2035 and the resulting impact on storage deployment. We use expanded modelling capabilities that allow us to differentiate storage resources by duration. In most scenarios, the majority of this storage investments have 4-6 hours of duration, but this distribution varies with assumptions for future natural gas prices and renewable energy cost advancement. Within this economic deployment framework, these results indicate that diurnal storage can likely be sufficient to meet the integration needs of high renewable energy penetrations up to at least 80%. vii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. Figure ES-1. National storage capacity in the reference case separated by storage duration (left) and across all scenarios (right) See Table 1 (Methods: Scenarios and Model Inputs section) for a full list of resource scenarios included here. See Figure A-1 in the appendix for additional details on generation and capacity by technology in each scenario. While storage can provide many services to the grid, we find that economic storage deployment is driven primarily by the combination of capacity value and energy arbitrage (or time-shifting) value, and that the combination of these value streams is needed for optimal storage deployment to be realized. We also find a strong correlation between PV penetration and storage market potential. More generation from PV leads to narrow net-load peaks in the evenings which increases the market potential of storage capacity value. More generation from PV also creates more volatile energy price profiles which increases the market potential of storage energy time- shifting value. Collectively, these results demonstrate the phased deployment pathways laid out in the first Storage Futures Study report: The Four Phases of Storage Deployment: A Framework for the Expanding Role of Storage in the U.S. Power System (Denholm et al., 2021). Shorter duration storage is deployed initially and over time longer duration of storage assets deploy on a cost- effective basis. This analysis also highlights how far cost-effective diurnal storage alone can move the power sector towards cost-optimal deployment. Building upon this analysis of economic deployment of diurnal storage future work should examine the relationship between diurnal storage and longer-duration storage resources, especially under highly decarbonized grid conditions outside the scope of this work, such as those approaching 100% clean energy. In addition, more work is needed to understand the relationship between storage and demand-side flexibility at a national-scale. Finally, while the focus of this work is on Li-ion batteries because the technology has greater market maturity than other emerging technologies, the results from this study can be generalized to other storage technologies that can meet these cost and performance projections. Collectively, these results speak to the growing opportunity for diurnal storage to provide least-cost solutions in the power system. viii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. Table of Contents 1 Introduction . 1 2 Methods: Model Improvements . 3 3 Methods: Scenarios and Model Inputs . 5 4 Results: National Deployment . 8 5 Results: Drivers of Deployment 9 6 Results: Other Interactions and Impact of Storage 15 7 Discussion and Future Work . 17 8 References 18 Appendix 21 A.1 Scenario Results 21 A.2 Op