【洞见氢能】中国氢能投资、市场开发与发展动力前沿观点

Hydrogen Insights An updated perspective on hydrogen investment, market development and momentum in China July 2021 ERR能研微讯 微信公众号： Energy-report 欢迎申请加入 ERR 能研微讯开发的 能源研究 微信群，请提供单 位姓名（或学校姓名），申请添加智库掌门人（下面二维码）微信，智 库掌门人会进行进群审核，已在能源研究群的人员请勿申请 ；群组禁 止不通过智库掌门人拉人进群 。 ERR 能研微讯 聚焦世界能源行业热点资讯，发布最新能源研究 报告，提供能源行业咨询。 本订阅号原创内容包含能源行业最新动态、趋势、深度调查、科 技发现等内容，同时为读者带来国内外高端能源报告主要内容的提炼、 摘要、翻译、编辑和综述，内容版权遵循 Creative Commons协议。 Hydrogen Insights July 2021 Update Hydrogen Council, McKinsey and 2. It is not their intention that any such form of coordination will be adopted. Whilst the contents of the Report and its abstract implications for the industry generally can be discussed once they have been prepared, individual strategies remain proprietary, confidential and the responsibility of each participant. Participants are reminded that, as part of the invariable practice of the Hydrogen Council and the EU competition law obligations to which membership activities are subject, such strategic and confidential information must not be shared or coordi- nated – including as part of this Report. 3 Hydrogen Insights July 2021 Update Hydrogen Council, McKinsey however, almost half of the projects’ carriers are still undecided. 28 141 3896 56 Giga-scale production Renewable hydrogenprojects 1 GW andlow-carbon hydrogen projects200 ktpa Large-scale industrial usage Refinery, ammonia, methanol, steel, and industry feedstock Transport Trains, ships, trucks, cars, and other hydrogen mobility applications Integrated hydrogen economy Cross-industry and projects with different types of end uses 359 Announced large-scale projects ~USD 500 bn investment by 2030, of which USD 150 bn is associated with mature projects Exhibit 1: Global hydrogen projects and investment across the value chain Infrastructure projects Hydrogen distribution, transportation, conversion, and storage Exhibit 1: Global hydrogen projects and investment across the value chain 5 Hydrogen Insights July 2021 Update Hydrogen Council, McKinsey this would make coal-based low carbon hydrogen production more expensive than electrolysis in optimal production locations. Distribution: China will need to connect renewable-rich regions (West) to high hydrogen demand areas (coast) Looking at China’s key hydrogen markets, such as transportation and steel production, most demand will come from coastal areas in the East. However, China’s renewable hydrogen supply centers are mainly located in the West, where there is abundant solar and wind capacity that could be taken advantage of. This implies a supply and demand gap that needs to be closed via two possible solutions: 1) distribution of Chinese hydrogen from the West to coastal and Northern China or 2) import of hydrogen from other countries to coastal and Northern China. While production costs in potential export markets such as Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Chile are lower than in Western China, liquification and shipping costs make imported hydrogen less competitive (50% more expensive) compared to local production. As such, China is likely to supply its own hydrogen needs. However, given higher production costs, China is currently not competitively positioned to export hydrogen to other countries as compared to Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Chile. End application: the vast majority of China›s clean hydrogen production projects are for transport end use While the majority of projects have not announced an end use, out of those that have, 50% are focused on transport. This supports China’s decision to make hydrogen a focal point in its decarbonization strategy for the transportation sector. As of today, most Chinese commercial vehicle players already have some level of entry into the FCEV space, mainly in buses and light trucks; however, this is likely to increase in parallel with the growth of hydrogen and expand to other types of vehicles in the near future. 8 Hydrogen Insights July 2021 Update Hydrogen Council, McKinsey & Company *** As this executive summary illustrates, momentum has continued to build since our Hydrogen Insights publication in February. The Hydrogen Insights update is based on several sources of material: 1) project announcements tracked by the Hydrogen Insights team across major renewable energy fora, 2) project data survey and validation by Hydrogen Council members and sister hydrogen associations, and 3) expert interviews. All the individual projects included in the Hydrogen Insights project tracker can be traced back to concrete project announcements. For more information, please contact the Hydrogen Council Secretariat for the subscription service that provides more detailed insights and data about the hydrogen ecosystem and its development. 9 Hydrogen Insights July 2021 Update Hydrogen Council, McKinsey & Company