2021年全球光伏市场展望-IHS 胡丹

Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Holly HU, Senior Analyst 胡丹 高级分析师 Solar & Energy Storage Research 光伏储能研究 March 29th 2018 Beijing 北京 Mar 2021 3月 2021 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Contents ⚫ 2020: A momentous year for net-zero GHG targets ⚫ Post-COVID-19, how is the solar market in 2021 ⚫ Key solar markets overview 2 ⚫ 2020年开启碳中和元年 ⚫ 后疫情下的全球 2021光伏市场 ⚫ 主要光伏市场展望 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. 2020: A momentous year for net-zero GHG targets 2020年开启碳中和元年 3 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. 2020: A momentous year for net-zero GHG targets 2020年开启碳中和元年 4 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Post-COVID-19, how is the solar market in 2021 后疫情下的全球 2021光伏市场 5 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Post COVID-19, the 2021 global PV market rebound 后疫情下的全球 2021光伏市场 6 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% - 50 100 150 200 250 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Asia Pacific Europe North Americas Latin America and the Caribbean Africa Middle East Y-o-Y market growth Global PV installations by major region Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit GW dc ITRI briefing | March 2021 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Key solar markets overview 主要光伏市场展望 7 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. China 中国 8 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Mainland China’s cumulative installed distributed PV capacity (until H1 2020) 各省分布式累计并网 9 Mainland China’s cumulative installed utility- scale PV capacity (until H1 2020) 各省大型项目累计并网 67.1 GW 148.8 GW Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Residential demand skyrocket in November 2020, with 3.5GW capacity added 2020户用市场超预期 10 2,227 4,294 259 2,039 5,274 10,123 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 Jan-Jun, 2019 Jan-Sep, 2019 Jan-March, 2020 Jan-Jun, 2020 Jan-Sep, 2020 Jan-Nov, 2020 Shandong Hebei Henan Zhejiang Shanxi Others Mainland China: January 2019 - November 2020 top five residential market installation tracker Source: IHS Markit, NEA © 2021 IHS Markit MW Shandong, 4,575 , 45% Hebei, 2,154 , 21% Henan, 1,053 , 10% Shanxi, 458 , 5% Anhui, 349 , 4% Others, 1,532 , 15% Mainland China: First eleven months in 2020 residential market by top provinces Source: IHS Markit, NEA © 2021 IHS Markit Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Europe 欧洲 11 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Europe – PV markets by country 欧洲的光伏市场分布 12 PPA deals Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. United States 美国 13 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. US tax credit extensions 美国税收抵减政策延期 14 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. India 印度 15 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. India’s near-term PV installations forecast severely impacted by COVID-19 疫情严重影响印度市场短期的需求 16 India PV market summary COVID-19 update As of 31 December 2020, India continues to struggle with Covid-19 outbreak in the country. However, all businesses including PV industry have been allowed to operate with standard operating procedures in place. 83 GWdc of PV generation capacity to be added 2020–24, mainly utility-scale All PV projects have received 6 months blanket extension on their completion deadline. Developers have requested for another 6 months extension citing issues related to PV module shortage and price increase. 2020 forecast change The PV installation forecast for 2020 has been reduced further to 4.6 GWdc. Shortage of PV modules and module price increase added more reasons to the decline in installation numbers in Q4 2020. PV connections in the first three quarters 2020 was reported as 2.3 GWac, down by 70% compared to the first three quarters 2019. PV tenders 2020 SECI awarded 1.07 GW to Al Jomaih Energy, NTPC and Sembcorp Energy with 200 MW, 470 MW and 400 MW respectively. GUVNL awarded 500 MW to NTPC, Torrent Power, Al Jomaih Energy, and Aditya Birla with 200 MW, 100 MW, 80 MW and 120 MW respectively. Tariffs Awarded tender tariffs in 2020 range from 31 to 45 USD/MWh, with the higher tariff for projects linked to local manufacturing. Local content Specific domestic content requirement in government rooftop tenders (DCR). Recent SECI tender linked to local manufacturing. • Net-metering • Self-consumption • Subsidy • Tariff-based bidding (national and state level) • Central Public Sector Undertaking • REC • Viability-gap funding • Solar ParksUtility-scale Commercial Residential Off-grid 83 GW 2020-24 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Japan 日本 17 Confidential. © 2020 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Cumulative PV projects structure in the past eight years 日本的 FiT项目历史及目前运行情况 18 0 20 40 60 80 100 Cu mu lat ive ap pro ve d pro ject s Cu mu lat ive op era tin g pro ject s GWac Chart Title 2 MW 1-2 MW 500 kW -1 MW 50 kW-500 kW 10-50 kW 10 kW before FIT program Japan - Cumulative PV projects structure in eight fiscal years Notes: The number of cumulative operated projects and approved projects is till end of Jun 2020 Source: IHS Markit, JPEA, METI © 2020 IHS Markit Before FiT + built FiT plants: 51.9 + 5.6 GWac = 57.53 GWac Non-operating:15.1GWac Before FiT + approved FiT projects 67.1 + 5.6 = 72.7 GWac IHS Markit Customer Care CustomerCare@ihsmarkit.com Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273) Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300 Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600 Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is confidential. 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All rights reserved and all intellectual property rights are retained by IHS Markit. Presentation Name / Month 2019 Holly HU Senior analyst, Solar & Energy Storage holly.hu@ihsmarkit.com 185 2179 1608 Thank you ! 谢谢大家