Global Market Outlook 2018-2022.pdf
lo l+k tutlook orolrow r/ 2018-2022 u**o+t y:pt#onto# ! . © www.africa-eu-renewables.org Finance Catalyst Events Funding Database Market Information CONNECTING AFRICAN AND EUROPEAN DEVELOPERS AND INVESTORS Africa-EU Renewable Energy Cooperation Programme (RECP) / 2018-2022 /3 u : “ u ’ u %*u$ % m #o!%u,ü *u*$#+“o%* *!yo # ty(Ü);t v %um ,m*t *!you #%;o *#!o op +u# n2016,w n v nw nss! s !s 52 GW Solar; 98 GW Large Hydro; 19 GW Other Res; 7 GW Coal; 35 GW Gas; 38 GW Nuclear; 11 GW 2017 © 2018 our :rnkfurt “ool- ntr n (2018)8 /ol+ow +u+o* / 2018-2022 1 2000-2017 / 2 ,2007-2017 © 2018 our :rnkfurt “ool- ntr n (2018) © 2018 3 8 300 0 1 2 3 4 US cents/kWh Masdar/EDF ACWA Marubeni Engie JGC/Trina Mitsui & Co. Total Cobra 1.79 2.34 2.66 2.77 2.78 2.86 2.86 3.37 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 % Renewable capacity change as a % of global capacity change (net) Renewable power as a % of global capacity Renewable power as a % of global power generation 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20% 27% 42% 32% 40% 49% 39% 41% 47% 57% 61% 7.5% 8.2% 9.2% 10.2% 11.4% 11.9% 13.0% 14.3% 15.7% 17.% 19% 5.2% 5.3% 5.9% 6.1% 6.9% 8.0% 8.6% 9.2% 10.0% 11.0% 12.1% he **st in s* r is t* rge extent resu t *f its spe t u r *st eve *pment(seeig.3).here *r *w s* rpri esth twere hieve in2016h ughtm ny energyexperts ysurprise.h tye r, i s w r e insever ten erswere e *wthe3 entperkh eve (2.95 entsf*r 800pr*je tinu i,2.91 entsf*r p*wer supp y *ntr tinhi e,2.42 entsf*rthe‘winter’supp y p rt*fthe1.18p ntin uh i).is ussi*ns *utsust in i ity*fsu h *wpri e eve s e mequi k y * s* ete s the pri e spir h s *ntinue its w y *wnw r s. ne ru ry2018, 300ten erin u i r i w sw*n y * *mp ny*wer t new w*r re *r *wpri e*f2.34 ents/kh,whi ethefirst sevensh*rt iste i swere e *w2.90 ents/kh. / 2018-2022 / 9 ! “ # 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 LCOE (USD/MWh) Cost of Capital: 6% CoD, 10% CoE Cost of Capital: 8% CoD, 14% CoE Residential PV Commercial PV Utility-scale PV CCGT Coal Nuclear s ! !y # ts t t s$! # t !$w 2 #ts # s t #w # “ k t t #s t$ “t t$ w # t# s # t ! st # $t $#s w t != $# t $#s ? t t s st! p$! y “w$ ks, + y t $# # t$p ## # #+ $#“#t. # “$st “ # “ kts w t *s #ss #+ $#“#t + ts $“ t ! stt, s$! p s w !! “ # $#s !y . $w+ , +!$p“#t ## # #st t*t $#s # !p s # #t!y t$ $+ sks $# t ## # s . $ ! #k $*p=s ! # $! $ ““ s #! s*-5 #ts p $ tw$ p $ ts # t 60 # ! t# , w # *t ! ty # ts #+st“#t p t# “ w$# $ 3.80 # 3.95 * $ #ts/k # p ! 2018. * t$ t # ! “p $+“#ts, s$! p$w $st # p w !! &* k!y $#t #* t$ s. $ tst ws ! y p $+ # t #t 300 * t# , w t !$wst $ 1.79 #ts/k , w ws !t s&*! , ws p$ t!y s $# ! “$*! t #$!$ y. * s$! “$*!s # # t p$w $# $t s s # $“ w t t p $“ s $ 10-30% y !s, p# # $# s$! !! t #$!$ y # !$t $#. “ kt s $ ! t #$!$ y s xpt t$ $w $“ !ss t # 5% # 2017 t$ # !y 40% y 2028, $ # t$ t #t #t $#! $“p $ $t$+$!t ( ). ! “$*!s # $t t #$!$ y “p $+“#ts $# t yst!! # s w !! * t “p $+ s$! =s $st +#t $+ $t # t $# t #$!$ s. t=s !s$ t * $ t t #- !“ s$! t #$!$ y s “#t, w st $! *st #t $* ts # y y ! #6 “$*! p $*t. # t +! z $st $ # y ( ) #!ys s ? s $# 11.0, !s # $+“ 2017 y #+st“#t #k z , *t ! ty s! s$! ws # p t # #*! # $!, # #w $“ # y! s t* #s () (s . 4). !$w t p t! $st, t s s$! =s $st +#t , w s t s$# w y t s$! p$w p* s “#ts (s) s # # st!= $*#t s ! k t # t “ ts !$w t # # “#y $t “ # s$! “ kts # $ s .
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