2023年中国氢能产业路线图（英文版）-世界经济论坛.pdf

Green Hydrogen in China: A Roadmap for Progress WHITE PAPER JUNE 2023 In collaboration with Accenture and China Hydrogen AllianceImages: Getty Images © 2023 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.Contents Foreword Executive summary Introduction: A great mission and a long way to go Goal 1 Cost 1.1 Production cost is a core constraint in scaling up green hydrogen 1.2 Enabling measures for reducing cost Goal 2 Infrastructure 2.1 Underdeveloped infrastructure restricts availability of green hydrogen 2.2 Enabling measures for infrastructure Goal 3 Market demand 3.1 China’s new markets for green hydrogen need policy support to reach their potential 3.2 Enabling measures to create market demand Goal 4 Industry standards and certification 4.1 Standard-setting is too slow to support the fast-growing hydrogen industry 4.2 Enabling measures for standards and certification Goal 5 Technology 5.1 China has mature alkaline electrolysis technology and is now exploring the new generation of hydrogen production processes 5.2 Enabling measures for technology Goal 6 Evolution and cooperation 6.1 Top-level planning has not yet defined the development path for the hydrogen supply chain 6.2 Enabling measures for evolution and cooperation Blueprint for the evolution of green hydrogen in China Conclusion Contributors Endnotes 4 5 9 14 14 17 19 19 21 24 24 26 30 30 32 33 33 35 36 36 38 39 44 45 47 Green Hydrogen in China: A Roadmap for Progress 3Foreword Hydrogen can play an important role in accelerating the transition of the energy sector towards net-zero emissions. But it needs to be clean and at scale. The rapid development of hydrogen has become a global priority, and China has incorporated it in its latest national development strategy. Green hydrogen has a vital role to play in helping China peak and then neutralize its carbon emissions. It is central to the government’s ambition to build a green, low-carbon industrial system. And it can contribute towards China’s strategic goal of reducing its reliance on fossil fuels. Yet, although China is the world’s largest hydrogen producer and consumer, less than 0.1% of the hydrogen it produces is from renewable sources of energy. China Hydrogen Alliance has launched the Renewable Hydrogen 100 initiative that aims to increase the installed capacity of electrolysers to 100 gigawatts by 2030, resulting in a green hydrogen production capacity of roughly 7.7 million tonnes per year. 1 This paper aims to understand and map out China’s pathway towards its 2030 objectives for green hydrogen. It builds on the work of the Accelerating Clean Hydrogen Initiative of the World Economic Forum, which published the Enabling Measures Roadmaps for Green Hydrogen for Europe and Japan at the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in Glasgow in November 2021.These roadmaps have since been updated with the latest policy developments in both regions. The roadmap presented in this document for China’s green hydrogen industry is the third in the series. It was created by the World Economic Forum and Accenture, in partnership with China Hydrogen Alliance. Similar to our other roadmaps, we have identified six key barriers, principal among which are cost, demand, infrastructure and standards. Positively, China’s abundant sources of renewable energy can amply power its green hydrogen development, and the country’s existing 34 million tonnes grey and blue hydrogen industry has created a market that could enable an accelerated expansion of greener alternatives. China has the potential to commercialize new, clean energy technologies to transform its industrial system and the wider economy. It is our hope that the suite of solutions presented in this paper can, when implemented together, enable China to fully realize its green hydrogen future. Roberto Bocca Head of Centre for Energy and Materials; Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum Green Hydrogen in China: A Roadmap for Progress June 2023 Samantha Zhu Chairperson; Market Unit Lead, Greater China, Accenture Wei Liu Secretary-General, China Hydrogen Alliance Green Hydrogen in China: A Roadmap for Progress 4Executive summary As the world shifts to a trajectory of net-zero emissions, green hydrogen will play an increasingly important role as a low-carbon and flexible form of energy. The global energy crisis provides a strategic opportunity to utilize hydrogen to start reshaping the global energy architecture. To date, 30 jurisdictions accounting for 70% of global gross domestic product (GDP) have issued state-level hydrogen strategies. In March 2022, China joined the list, publishing its Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035). Green hydrogen can play an important role in helping China peak, and then neutralize, its carbon emissions. It is vital to China’s strategic ambition to build a green, low-carbon industrial system. As the world’s largest hydrogen producer and consumer, China’s current hydrogen production is largely grey. Of the 34 million tons of hydrogen that China produced in 2021, 80.3% was produced from fossil fuels, 18.5% from industrial by- production and 1.2% from electrolysis (of this, less than 0.1% from electrolysis powered by renewable energy sources). Demand for green hydrogen is greatly constrained by cost and availability, as its applications are currently limited to a few small pilot projects in the transport sector that account for less than 0.1% of total hydrogen consumption. China’s abundant sources of renewable energy are well placed to power green hydrogen’s development. But the industry is nascent and no clear green hydrogen development pathway has been established. The main constraints for the expansion of green hydrogen in China are cost, market demand, infrastructure and industry standards and certification. Backed by in-depth analysis of China’s green hydrogen market, this publication proposes six development goals for China’s green hydrogen market, accompanied by key objectives for each goal and 35 enabling measures and recommendations. These centre on building a new energy system and a full supply chain of hydrogen through industrial, regional and global collaborations. The publication draws on the green hydrogen roadmaps for the European Union (EU) and Japan, and, with reference to China’s industrial and domestic context, outlines a blueprint to help China deliver on its ambitious green hydrogen vision, with 2030 as the key milestone. Goal 1: Cost Key objectives: – Reduce the cost of electricity in green hydrogen production – Reduce the cost of electrolysers The major costs associated with green hydrogen centre on production, transportation and refuelling stations, with production costs the core constraint in scaling the industry. Green hydrogen in China costs 3-5 times more to produce per kg than coal- produced hydrogen. Meanwhile, blue hydrogen, which uses coal or natural gas in conjunction with carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), is cheaper to produce per unit (currently) and has the potential to produce hydrogen at a low carbon emissions intensity. However, CCUS is not well-established in China and is limited to a few demonstration projects. Goal 2: Infrastructure Key objectives: – Establish unified regulatory standards and procedures – Reduce the cost of infrastructure investment and expand financing channels Underdeveloped infrastructure restricts the availability of green hydrogen. Under the Chinese regulatory framework, hydrogen is classified as an energy source as well as a hazardous chemical, which makes developing the industry more complex – hydrogen infrastructure must legally be sited in a chemicals industry park and secure a range of licences. However, regulations differ between jurisdictions. For example, in October 2022, Guangdong province passed interim measures that allow the construction of stations that integrate hydrogen production and refuelling facilities in non- chemical industry parks. Another obstacle is the high cost of investing in hydrogen infrastructure, along with limited channels to raise finance. In 2021, the hydrogen sector generated just $578 million in investment, compared to $489 billion invested in electric vehicles, which comprise the great majority of capital raised by the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector (that excludes hydrogen-powered vehicles). Green Hydrogen in China: A Roadmap for Progress 5Goal 3: Market demand Key objectives: – Boost short-term market demand for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) – Create multiple end-use application scenarios to drive the large-scale adoption of hydrogen technology To develop green hydrogen at scale, a breakthrough on supply is not enough – China’s markets need policy support to develop more demand-side opportunities. Hydrogen has a wide range of applications – in transport, manufacturing, utilities and construction. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) offer an ideal solution for long-haul, heavy-duty trucking. By 2021, there were 9,000 HFCVs on the road – not enough to support a large-scale industry, but this is expected to change as fuel cell costs fall. Hydrogen is also being piloted in aviation and shipping, though commercialization remains a long-term goal. Hydrogen also offers significant decarbonization opportunities for iron and steel production, which emits 1-3 tons of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) per ton of metal produced. Hydrogen can replace coking coal as a combustion fuel in the smelting process, resulting in water (H 2 O) as a by-product instead of CO 2 . Other applications include hydrogen energy storage (HES), which entails hydrogen being produced using fuel cells and stored when electrical supply is abundant, to be converted back into electricity when needed. Goal 4: Industry standards and certification Key objectives: – Improve the regulatory system for hydrogen by providing better-structured standards – Engage multiple stakeholders to develop innovative, high-quality standards Standards play a pivotal role in the development of hydrogen technology, but standard-setting is too slow to support this fast-growing industry. Despite the publication of Chinese standards that cover the whole supply chain, gaps remain, especially in technical standards for storage, transport and refuelling. Here, China compares poorly to other jurisdictions such as the United States (US) or Japan. Because of the complexity of the hydrogen value chain, the administrative structure that is responsible for standard setting spans many different ministries and is consequently not best suited for the rapid certification of an emerging industry such as green hydrogen. In practice this means that for certain technology applications, no single administrative body is clearly responsible as of now. Goal 5: Technology Key objective: – Step up proprietary research and development (R&D) across the supply chain to further adapt electrolysis technology to renewable energy sources Electrolysis is considered the leading green hydrogen-producing technology today. It produces highly purified hydrogen and works well in combination with renewable energy. It therefore enjoys brighter prospects than other types of hydrogen technology, such as those using nuclear energy or photocatalysis (technologies still at the laboratory stage). The electrolysis process relies on electrolysers, of which three types are currently in use: alkaline (ALK), proton exchange membrane (PEM) and solid oxide electrolyser cell (SOEC). PEM’s higher reaction efficiency is well suited to the volatility of wind and solar power. Globally, PEM technology is expected to commercialize rapidly. But China is way behind in this technology. To secure PEM’s future, China needs to replace imported components with domestic alternatives. SOEC recovers waste heat from high-temperature industrial processes, working well in conjunction with photothermal power systems. In China, the experience with SOEC electrolysers is currently limited to laboratory-scale demonstrations. Goal 6: Evolution and cooperation Key objective: – Speed up the development of a national strategy for hydrogen – Lay the foundation for international cooperation National-level hydrogen planning is in place, but the development pathway and goals for the hydrogen supply chain are yet to be defined. Other countries have already formulated explicit roadmaps to propel their hydrogen industries, and China risks being left behind. Japan and South Korea are taking the lead in building overseas hydrogen supply systems and sales markets. Japan leads on international cooperation, having recently hosted the Group of Twenty (G20) Clean Energy Ministerial and a special forum on hydrogen. China started late in this sector, but is now expanding rapidly. Currently, China has the largest hydrogen production capacity worldwide. The blueprint for China’s future hydrogen sector development is focused primarily on domestic energy restructuring and carbon neutrality objectives. Additionally, China has witnessed a steady increase in the number of international cooperation projects, more wide-ranging collaborations, diverse partnership models, greater commitment to green hydrogen and more engagement from companies. Green Hydrogen in China: A Roadmap for Progress 6Blueprint for the evolution of green hydrogen in China Given China’s ambition to peak carbon emissions by 2030, green hydrogen is destined to play a pivotal role in the country’s carbon neutralization. To deliver this new technology at the scale required, China will need to focus on developing the sector through industrial, regional and global collaborations. The key priorities should be: – Deployment of government policy for balancing supply and demand. – Improved coordination between provinces to maximize relative strengths and synergies. – Support for a multilateral approach built on global cooperation in cost, infrastructure and markets. – Adoption of a China-specific approach to standards and certification. This publication proposes a roadmap with six goals that China should execute in a series of coordinated actions spread over three phases that accomplish key goals: Phase 1 - 2023-2024: Supportive policies, demonstration projects, technological breakthroughs, coordination with existing energy supply, application to industry sectors. Phase 2 -