2023年BP世界能源展望-机翻中英对照-109页.pdf

bp Energy Outlook Bp 能源展望 2023 edition 2023年版 2 | 2 | Energy Outlook 2023 explores the key trends and uncertainties surrounding the energy transition. 《能源展望 2023》 探讨了围绕能源 转型的主要趋势 和不确定性。 Energy Outlook 2023 is focused on three main scenarios: Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum. These scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what bp would like to happen. Rather they explore the possible implications of different judgements and assumptions concerning the nature of the energy transition and the uncertainties around those judgements. The scenarios are based 《能源展望 2023》主要关注三种情景 : 加速、净零和新动力。这些情景并 不是对可能发生的事情或者 bp 希望发生的事情的预测。相反，它们探索 了不同判断和假设对能量转换本质的可能影响，以及围绕这些判断的 不确 定性。这些情景是基于 on existing technologies and do not consider the possible impact of entirely new or unknown technologies. 基于现有技术，不考虑全新或未知技术可能带来的影响。 The many uncertainties surrounding the transition of the global energy system mean that the probability of any one of these scenarios materializing exactly as described is negligible. Moreover, the three scenarios do not provide a comprehensive range of possible paths for the transition ahead. They do, however, span a wide range of possible outcomes and so help to illustrate the key uncertainties surrounding energy markets out to 2050. 围绕全球能源系统转型的许多不确定因素意味着，这些情景中任何一种 正如所描述的那样成为现实的可能性微乎其微。此外，这三种情况并没 有为未来的转型提供一个全面的可能路径范围。然而，它们确实涵盖了 广泛的可能结果，因此有助于说明直到 2050年能源市场的关键不确定 性。 The scenarios in this year’s Outlook have been updated to take account of two major developments over the past year: the Russia-Ukraine war and the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the US. Aside from updating for those two developments, the scenarios are based largely on the analysis and scenarios in Energy Outlook 2022. They 今年《展望》中的情景已经更新，以考虑到过去一年的两大事态发展 : 俄乌 战争和美国通过的《通胀削减法案》 (Inflation Reduction Act)。除了对这两 种情况的更新，这些情景主要基于《能源展望 2022》中的分析和情景。他 们 do not include a comprehensive assessment of all the changes and developments since Outlook 2022. 不包括对自 outlook2022以来所有变化和发展的全面评估。 The Energy Outlook is produced to inform bp’s strategy and is published as a contribution to the wider debate about the factors shaping the energy transition. But the Outlook is only one source among many when considering the future of global energy markets and bp considers a wide range of other external scenarios, analysis and information when forming its long-term strategy. 《能源展望》是为英国石油公司的战略提供信息的，它的出版是对影响 能源转型因素的更广泛辩论的贡献。但在考虑 全球能源市场的未来时， Outlook 只是众多来源中的一个，而英国石油在制定长期战略时，考虑 了大量其它外部情景、分析和信息。 3 | bp Energy Outlook: 2023 edition 英国石油公司能源展望 : 2023版 4 | 4 | Welcome to the 2023 edition of bp’s Energy Outlook. 欢迎来到英国石油 公司 2023年版的能 源展望。 The past year has been dominated by the terrible consequences of the Russia- Ukraine war and its awful toll on lives and communities. Our thoughts and hopes are with all those affected. 过去的一年里，俄乌战争的可 怕后果及其对生命和社区造成 的可怕损失占据了主导地位。 我们的想法和希望与所有受影 响的人们同在。 Most importantly, the desire of countries to bolster their energy security by reducing their dependency on imported energy 最重要的是，各国希望通过减少 对进口能源的依赖来加强其能源 安全 – dominated by fossil fuels – and instead have access to more domestically produced energy – much of which is likely to come from renewables and other non- fossil energy sources – suggests that the war is likely to accelerate the pace of the energy transition. - 以化石燃料为主，而且可以获得更 多的国内生产的能源 -其中大部分可 能来自可再生能源和其他非化石能 源 -这表明战争可能会加快能源转型 的步伐。 The scale of the economic and social disruptions over the past year associated with the loss of just a fraction of the world’s fossil fuels has also highlighted the need for the transition away from hydrocarbons to be orderly, such that the demand for hydrocarbons falls in line with available supplies, avoiding future periods of energy shortages and higher prices. 过去一年中经济和社会动荡的规模 与世界化石燃料损失的一小部分有 关，这也突出表明，需要有秩序地 从碳氢化合物过渡，使对碳氢化合 物的需求与现有供应保 持一致，避 免今后出现能源短缺和价格上涨的 时期。 From an energy perspective, the disruptions to Russian energy supplies and the resulting global energy shortages seem likely to have a material and lasting impact on the energy system. 从能源的角度来看，俄罗斯能源 供应的中断以及由此造成的全球 能源短缺似乎可能对能源系统产 生重大而持久的影响。 Global energy policies and discussions in recent years have been focused on the importance of decarbonizing the energy system and the transition to net zero. The events of the past year have served as a reminder to us all that this transition also needs to take account of the security and affordability of energy. Together these three dimensions of the energy system – security, affordability, and sustainability – make up the energy trilemma. Any successful and enduring energy transition needs to address all three elements of the trilemma. 近年来，全球能源政策和讨论的 重点是能源系统脱碳和向净零过 渡的重要性。过去一年的事件提 醒我们所有人，这种转变也需要 考虑到能源的安全性和可负担性。 能源系统的三个维度 ——安全性、 可负担性和可持续性 ——共同构 成了能源三难困境。任何成功和 持久的能源转型都需要解决三难 困境的所有三个要素。 These issues, together with the broader implications of the energy transition, are explored in this year’s Energy Outlook using three main scenarios: Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum. Together these scenarios span 这些问题以及能源转型的更广泛 影响在今年的《能源展望》中进 行了探讨，使用了三种主要情景 : 加速、净零和新动力。这些情景 一起跨越 a wide range of the possible outcomes for the global energy system over the next 30 years. Understanding this range of uncertainty helps bp to shape a strategy which is resilient to the different speeds and ways in which the energy system may transition. 全球能源系统在未来 30年可能 出现的各种结果。了解这些不确 定性有助于英国石油公司制定一 项战略，以适应能源系统可能转 变的不同速度和方式。 The continuing rise in carbon emissions and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events in recent years highlight more clearly than ever the importance of a decisive shift towards a net- zero future. The events of the past year have highlighted the complexity and 近年来，碳排放量持续增加， 极端天气事件日益频繁，这比 以往任何时候都更清楚地突出 表明，必须决定性地转向零排 放的未来。过去一年发生的事 件突出了这种复杂性和 Last year’s Energy Outlook did not include any analysis of the possible implications of the war in Ukraine. The scenarios in Outlook 2023 have been updated to take account of the war, as well as 去年的《能源展望》没有对乌克兰 战争可能产生的影响进行任何分析。 《瞭望 2023》中的场景已经更新， 以考虑到战争，以及 of the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the US. 美国通过《减少通胀法案》 (Inflation Reduction Act)的情 况。 At the time of writing, the war is continuing with no end in sight. As such, any analysis of its possible implications must be treated as preliminary. However, the experience from the major energy supply shocks of the 1970s suggests that events that heightened energy security concerns can have significant and persistent impacts on energy markets. 在撰写本文时，战争仍在继续， 看不到结束的迹象。因此，任何 对其可能影响的分析都必须被视 为初步分析。然而， 1970年代主 要能源供应冲击的经验表明，加 剧能源安全关切的事件可对能源 市场产生重 大和持续的影响。 interconnectedness of the global energy system and the need to address all three dimensions of the energy trilemma. I hope this year’s Energy Outlook is useful to everyone trying to navigate this uncertain future and accelerate the transition to global net zero. 全球能源系统的相互关联性以及解 决能源三难困境的所有三个方面的 需求。我希望今年的《能源展望》 对每一个试图驾驭这个不确定的未 来，加速向全球净零过渡的人来说 都是有用的。 As always, any feedback on the Outlook and how it can be improved would be most welcome. 一如既往，对 Outlook 的任 何反馈以及如何改进都是非 常受欢迎的。 Spencer Dale 斯宾塞 · 戴尔 Chief economist 首席经济学家 5 | bp Energy Outlook: 2023 edition 5 | bp 能源展望 : 2023年版 6 | 6 | Core Beliefs 核心信念 This year’s Outlook can be used to identify aspects of the energy transition that are common across the main scenarios. These trends help shape core beliefs about how the energy system may evolve over the next 30 years. 今年的 Outlook 可以用来确定各种 主要情景中常见的能源转型的各个 方面。这些趋势有助于形成关于未 来 30年能 源系统如何演变的核心信 念。 The carbon budget is running out. Despite the marked increase in government ambitions, CO2 emissions have increased every year since the Paris COP in 2015 (bar 2020). The longer the delay in taking decisive action to reduce emissions on a sustained basis, the greater are the likely resulting economic and social costs. 碳预算正在耗尽。尽管政府野心显著增加，但自 2015年巴黎缔约方会议 ( 2020年除外 )以来，二氧化碳排放量每年都在增加。采取果断行动持续减少排放的时间拖得越久，可能造成的经济和社会成本就越高。 Government support for the energy transition has increased in a number of countries, including the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the US. But the scale of 在一些国家，政府对能源转型的支持有所增加，包括美国通过了《通货膨胀减少法案》 (In flation Reduction Act )。但是 The prospects for natural gas depend on the speed of the energy transition, with increasing demand in emerging economies as they grow and industrialize offset by the transition to lower carbon energy sources, led by the developed world. 天然气的前景取决于 能源转型的速度，随着新兴经济体的增长和工业化，它们对天然气的需求日益增加，而发达国家领导的向低碳能源的转型抵消了这种需求。 The recent energy shortages and price spikes highlight the importance of the transition away from hydrocarbons being orderly, such that the demand for hydrocarbons falls in line with available supplies. Natural declines in existing production sources mean there needs to be continuing upstream investment in oil and natural gas over the next 30 years. 最近的能源短缺和价格飙升突出表明，必须有序地摆脱对碳氢化合物的依赖，从而使对碳氢化合物的需求与现有供应保持一致。现有生产资源的自然下降意味着在未来 30年内需要继续在石油和天然气领域进行上游投 资。 the decarbonization challenge suggests greater support is required globally, including policies to facilitate quicker permitting and approval of low- carbon energy and infrastructure. 脱碳挑战表明，全球需要更大的支 持，包括促进低碳能源和基础设施 更快获得批准的政策。 The disruption to global energy supplies and associated energy shortages caused by the Russia- Ukraine war increases the importance attached to addressing all three elements of the energy trilemma: security, affordability, and sustainability. 俄乌战争造成的全球能源供应中断和相关的能源短缺更加重视解决能源三难局面的所有三个要素 : 安全、可负担性和可持续性。 The war has long-lasting effects on the global energy system. The heightened focus on energy security increases demand for domestically produced renewables and other non-fossil fuels, helping to accelerate the energy transition. 这场战争对全球能源系统产生了长期的影响。对能源安全的高度关注增加了对国内生产的可再生能源和其他非化石燃料的需求，有助于加速能源转型。 The global power system decarbonizes, led by the increasing dominance of wind and solar power. Wind and solar account for all or most of the growth in power generation, aided by continuing cost competitiveness and an increasing ability to integrate high proportions of these variable power sources into power systems. The growth in wind and solar requires a significant acceleration in the financing and building of new capacity. 由于风能和太阳能的主导地位日益增强，全球电力系统开始脱碳。风能和太阳能发电占发电增长的全部或大部分，这得益于持续的成本竞争力，以及将这些可变动能源的高比例整合到电 力系统中的能力日益提高。风能和太阳能的发展需要在新能力的融资和建设方面有显著的加速。 The use of modern bioenergy – modern solid biomass, biofuels and biomethane – grows rapidly, helping to decarbonize hard-to- abate sectors and processes. 现代生物能源 ——现代固体生物质、生物燃料和生物甲烷 ——的使用迅速增长，帮助难以削减的部门和过程脱碳。 Low-carbon hydrogen plays a critical role in decarbonizing the energy system, especially in hard - to-abate processes and activities in industry and transport. Low-carbon 低碳氢在能源系统脱碳方面发挥着关键作用，特别是在工业和运输中难以减少的过程和活动中。低碳 The structure of energy demand changes, with the importance of fossil fuels declining, replaced by a growing share of renewable energy and by increasing electrification. The transition to a low- carbon world requires a range of other energy sources and technologies, including low-carbon hydrogen, modern bioenergy, and carbon capture, use and storage. 随着化石燃料的重要性下降，能源需求结构发生了变化，取而代之的是可再生能源的份额越来越大，电气化程度越来越高。向低碳世界的过渡需要一系列其他能源和技术，包括低碳氢、现代生物能源以及碳捕获、使用和储存。 Oil demand declines over the outlook, driven by falling use in road transport as the efficiency of the vehicle fleet improves and the electrification of road vehicles accelerates. Even so, oil continues to play a major role in the global energy system for the next 15-20 years. 由于车队效率提高和公路车辆电气化加速，公路运输使用减少，石油需求在前景方面有所下降。即便如此，在未来 15-20年内，石油仍将在全球能源 系统中扮演重要角色。 hydrogen is dominated by green and blue hydrogen, with green hydrogen growing in importance over time. Hydrogen trade is a mix of regional pipelines transporting pure hydrogen and global seaborne trade in hydrogen derivatives. 氢气主要由绿色和蓝色氢气构成，随 着时间的推移，绿色氢气的重要性越 来越大。氢交易是区域管道运输纯氢 和全球海运氢衍生物贸易的混合体。 Carbon capture, use and storage plays a central role in enabling rapid decarbonization trajectories: capturing industrial process emissions, acting as a source of carbon dioxide removal, and abating emissions from the use of fossil fuels. 碳捕获、使用和储存在实现快速脱碳轨迹方面发挥着核心作用 : 捕获工业过程排放，作为二氧化碳清除的来源，并减少使用矿物燃料产生的排放。 A range of methods for carbon dioxide removal – including bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage, natural climate solutions, and direct air carbon capture with storage – will be needed for the world to achieve a deep and rapid decarbonization. 世界需要一系列去除二氧化碳的方法 ——包括生物能源与碳捕获和储存相结合、自然气候解决办法以及直接空气碳捕获与储存 ——以实现深入和迅速的脱碳。 7 | bp Energy Outlook: 2023 edition 英国石油公司能源展望 : 2023年版 8 | 8 | Overview 概述 10 Three scenarios: Net Zero, Accelerated 三个场景 : 净零，加速 and New Momentum 和新的动力 12 Comparison with IPCC pathways 与政府间气候变化专门委员会途径的比 较 14 Final energy demand 最终能源需求 16 Trends in energy demand 能源需求趋势 18 Changes since Energy Outlook 2022 能源展望 2022以来的变化 20 Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war 俄乌战争的影响 22 The effects of the war on economic growth 战争对经济增长的影响 24 A shifting energy mix 能源结构的转变 26 Oil and natural gas trade 石油和天然气贸易 28 Change in carbon emissions 二氧化碳排放量的变化 30 Russian production of oil and gas 俄罗斯的石油和天然气生产 32 EU natural gas demand and sources of supply 欧盟天然气需求和供应来源 34 Inflation Reduction Act 减少通货膨胀法案 36 Electricity 电力 60 Electricity demand 电力需求 62 Electricity generation by fuel 燃料发电 64 Electricity generation by region 按地区分列的发电量 66 Low-carbon hydrogen 低碳氢气 68 Low-carbon hydrogen demand 低碳氢需求量 70 Low-carbon hydrogen supply 低碳氢供应 72 Carbon mitigation and removals 碳减缓和清除 74 Carbon capture use and storage 碳捕获的使用和储存 76 Carbon dioxide removals 二氧化碳清除 78 Contents 目录 Oil 石油 38 Oil demand 石油需求 40 Oil in transport 运输中的石油 42 Oil supply 石油供应 44 Natural gas 天然气 46 Natural gas demand 天然气需求 48 LNG trade 液化天然气贸易 50 LNG exports 液化天然气出口 52 Renewable energy 可再生能源 54 Wind and solar 风能和太阳能 56 Bioenergy 生物能源 58 Investment and critical minerals 投资和关键矿产 80 Levels of implied investment 隐含投资水平 82 Demand for critical minerals 对关键矿物的需求 84 Annex 附件 86 Data tables 数据表 88 Modelling the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war 模拟俄罗斯 -乌克兰战争的影响 90 Economic impact of climate change 气候变化的经济影响 92 Investment methodology 投资方法 94 Carbon emissions definitions and sources 碳排放定义和来源 96 Other data definitions and sources 其他资料定义及来源 98 9 | bp Energy Outlook: 2023 edition 9 | bp 能源展望 : 2023版 10 | 10 | Overview 概述 Three scenarios to explore the uncertainties surrounding the speed and shape of the energy transition to 2050 三种情景探讨的不确定性周围的速度和形状的能源过渡到 2050年 Accelerated and Net Zero are broadly in line with ‘Paris consistent’ IPCC scenarios 加速和净零基本上符合 ”巴黎一致 ”气专委的 设想 Final energy demand peaks in all three scenarios as gains in energy efficiency accelerate 随着能源效率的提高，最终的能源需求在以上三种 情况下都会达到峰值 The future of global energy is dominated by four trends: declining role for hydrocarbons, rapid expansion in renewables, increasing electrification, and growing use of low-carbon hydrogen 全球能源的未来主要有四个趋势 : 碳氢化合物的作用下降、可再生能 源的迅速扩张、电气化程度的提高以及低碳氢的使用量的增加 11 | bp Energy Outlook: 2023 edition 11 | bp 能源展望 : 2023年版 12 | Overview 12 | 概述 Three scenarios to explore the uncertainties surr