《2022年排放差距报告：正在关闭的窗口期——气候危机急需社会快速转型》EGR2022.pdf

Emissions Gap Report 2022 The Closing Window Climate crisis calls for rapid transformation of societies© 2022 United Nations Environment Programme ISBN: 978-92-807-3979-4 Job number: DEW/2477/NA This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The United Nations Environment Programme would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the United Nations Environment Programme. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Communication Division, United Nations Environment Programme, P.O. Box 30552, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. 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Supported by: UNEP promotes environmentally sound practices globally and in its own activities. Our distribution policy aims to reduce UNEP s carbon footprint.The Closing Window Climate crisis calls for rapid transformation of societies Emissions Gap Report 2022V Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window Acknowledgements Acknowledgements The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) would like to thank the members of the steering committee, the lead and contributing authors, the reviewers, and the Secretariat for their contribution to the preparation of this assessment report. Authors and reviewers have contributed to the report in their individual capacities. Their affiliations are only mentioned for identification purposes. Steering committee Juliane Berger (German Environment Agency), John Christensen (CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank), Navroz K. Dubash (Centre for Policy Research, India), Samuel Karslake (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, United Kingdom), Wael Farag Basyouny Keshk (Ministry of Environment, Egypt), Jian Liu (UNEP), Gerd Leipold (Climate Transparency), Simon Maxwell (independent), Surabi Menon (ClimateWorks Foundation), Dirk Nemitz (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC]), Henry Neufeldt (UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre [UNEP-CCC]), Katia Simeonova (independent), Youba Sokona (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]), Oksana Tarasova (World Meteorological Organization) Authors Chapter 1 Authors: Anne Olhoff (CONCITO – Denmark s green think tank), John Christensen (CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank) Chapter 2 Lead authors: William F. Lamb (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change and Priestley International Centre for Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, United Kingdom), Giacomo Grassi (European Commission, Joint Research Centre [JRC], Italy) Contributing authors: Lucas Chancel (World Inequality Lab, Paris School of Economics, France), Monica Crippa (European Commission, JRC, Italy), Diego Guizzardi (European Commission, JRC, Italy), Marilena Muntean (European Commission, JRC, Italy), Jos Olivier (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands), Glen Peters (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Norway), Julia Pongratz (Ludwig- Maximilians University Munich, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany) Chapter 3 Lead authors: Takeshi Kuramochi (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Michel den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands), Taryn Fransen (World Resources Institute, United States of America) Contributing authors: Caitling Bergh (Energy Systems Research Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa), Anna Chapman (Climate Analytics, Australia), Nandini Das (Climate Analytics, Australia), Kim Coetzee (Climate Transparency, Germany), Neil Grant (Climate Analytics, Germany), Mariana Gutiérrez (HUMBOLDT-VIADRINA Governance Platform, Mexico), Gahee Han (Solutions for Our Climate, Republic of Korea), Frederic Hans (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Camilla Hyslop (Net Zero Tracker and University of Oxford, United Kingdom), Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China), Joojin Kim (Solutions for Our Climate, Republic of Korea), Ben King (Rhodium Group, United States of America), Aman Majid (Climate Analytics, Germany), Andrew Marquard (Energy Systems Research Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa), Bryce McCall (Energy Systems Research Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa), Malte Meinshausen (University of Melbourne, Australia), Mia Moisio (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Silke Mooldijk (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Leonardo Nascimento (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Natalie Pelekh (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Anne Olhoff (CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank) Jazmín Rocco Predassi (Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Argentina), Analuz Presbítero (Iniciativa Climática de México, Mexico), Martin Birk Rasmussen (CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank), Carley Reynolds (Climate Analytics, Germany), Joeri Rogelj (Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA], Austria), Ümit Şahin (Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University and Stiftung Mercator, Türkiye), Clea Schumer (World Resources Institute, United States of America), Kentaro Tamura (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan), Fabby Tumiwa (Institute for Essential Services Reform, Indonesia), Farah Vianda (Institute for Essential Services Reform, Indonesia), Jorge Villarreal (Iniciativa Climática de México, Mexico), Claire Stokwell (Climate Analytics, Germany), Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan (Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad [IIMA], India), Lisa Wijayani (Institute for Essential Services Reform, Indonesia), William Wills (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) Chapter 4 Lead authors: Joeri Rogelj (Imperial College London, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA], Austria), Michel den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands), Joana Portugal-Pereira (Graduate School of Engineering [COPPE], Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) Contributing authors: Taryn Fransen (World Resources Institute, United States of America), Gaurav Ganti (Climate VI Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window Analytics, Germany), Jarmo Kikstra (Imperial College London, United Kingdom), Alex Köberle (Imperial College London, United Kingdom), Robin Lamboll (Imperial College London, United Kingdom), Shivika Mittal (Imperial College London, United Kingdom), Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (Climate Analytics, Germany), Clea Schumer (World Resources Institute, United States of America) Chapter 5 Lead authors: Niklas Höhne (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Kelly Levin (Bezos Earth Fund, United States of America), Joyashree Roy (Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand, and Jadavpur University, India) Contributing authors: Stephen Naimoli (World Resources Institute, United States of America), Louise Jeffery (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Judit Hecke (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Joshua Miller (International Council on Clean Transportation, United States of America) Chapter 6 Lead authors: Aline Mosnier (Sustainable Development Solutions Network, France), Marco Springmann (University of Oxford, United Kingdom), Shenggen Fan (China Agricultural University, China) Contributing authors: Bruce Campbell (Clim-EAT and University of Copenhagen, Denmark), Helen Harwatt (Chatham House, United Kingdom), Julia Rocha Romero (UNEP-CCC, Denmark), Wei Zhang (CGIAR and International Food Policy Research Institute [IFPRI], United States of America) Chapter 7 Lead authors: Pieter Pauw (Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands), Dipak Dasgupta (The Energy and Resources Institute – TERI, India), Heleen de Coninck (Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands) Contributing authors: Lilia Couto (University College London Institute for Sustainable Resources and Chatham House, United Kingdom), Michael König (the Frankfurt School – UNEP Centre for Climate and Sustainable Energy Finance, Germany), George Marbuah (Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden), Luis Zamarioli (the Frankfurt School – UNEP Centre for Climate and Sustainable Energy Finance, Germany) Reviewers Nadia Ameli (University College London) Jesica Andrews (UNEP Finance Initiative), Marci Rose Baranski (UNEP), Stefano Battiston (University of Zurich), Juliane Berger (German Environment Agency), Marina Bortoletti (UNEP), Ruci Mafi Botei (UNEP), David Carlin (UNEP Finance Initiative), Piero Carlo dos Reis (Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG-CLIMA]), Hugues Chenet (University College London), John Christensen (CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank), Ian Cochran (University of Edinburgh Business School), Rene Colditz (DG-CLIMA), Peter Cooleman (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Annette Cowie (University of New England), Monica Crippa (JRC), Krystal Crumpler (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO]), Rob Dellink (OECD), Paul Dowling (DG-CLIMA), Navroz Dubash (Centre for Policy Research), Florian Egli (Energy and Technology Policy Group), James Foster (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Chad Frischmann (Project Drawdown), Oliver Geden (German Institute for International and Security Affairs), Bernat Goni-Ros (DG- CLIMA), Niklas Hagelberg (UNEP), Thomas Hale (University of Oxford), Andrea Hinwood (UNEP), Claire Hoolohan (University of Manchester), Jason Jabbour (UNEP), Narcis Jeler (DG-CLIMA), Yasuko Kameyama (National Institute for Environmental Studies), Maarten Kappelle (UNEP), Samuel Karslake (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Wael Farag Basyouny Keshk (Ministry of Environment, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency), Thaddeus Idi Kiplimo (UNEP), Johannes Klumpers (DG- CLIMA), Boris Le Montagner (UNEP Economy Division), Gerd Leipold (Climate Transparency), Kai Lesmann (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), Jian Liu (UNEP), James Lomax (UNEP), Phillip Lugmayr (DG-CLIMA), Mark Lundy (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research), Dominic MacCormack (UNEP), Maria Socorro Manguiat (UNEP), Jade Maron (UNEP), Simon Maxwell (independent), Surabi Menon (ClimateWorks Foundation), Bert Metz (independent), Irene Monasterolo (École des Hautes Etudes Commerciales du Nord), Jongwoon Moon (Yonsei University), Kanako Morita (Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute), Susan Mutebi-Richards (UNEP), Dirk Nemitz (UNFCCC), Henry Neufeldt (UNEP- CCC) Clementine O’Connor (UNEP), Rowan Palmer (UNEP), Frederik Pischke (German Environment Agency), Vicky Pollard (DG-CLIMA), Friedemann Polzin (Utrecht University), Kate Power (Hot or Cool Coalition), Clara Rabelo Caiafa Pereira (Eindhoven University of Technology), Raoni Rajão (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais), Elisabeth Resch (UNEP-CCC), Cornelius Rhein (DG-CLIMA), Yann Robiou du Pont Robiou du Pont (Climate Energy College), Johanna Schiele (DG-CLIMA), Laure-Sophie Schiettecatte (FAO), Johannes Schuler (DG-CLIMA), Xavier Seront (DG-CLIMA), Himanshu Sharma (UNEP), Katia Simeonova (independent), Paul Smith (UNEP Finance Initiative), Youba Sokona (IPCC), Shreya Some (Asian Institute of Technology), Sandhya Srinivasan (World Bank), Jamal Srouji (World Resources Institute), Richard Swannell (WRAP), Kentaro Tamura (Institute for Global Environmental Studies), Oksana Tarasova (World Meteorological Organization), Sven Teske (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney), Simone Westi Højte (CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank), Francesco Tubiello (FAO), Jens van ‘t Klooster (University of Amsterdam), Melvin van Velthoven (DG- CLIMA), Louis Verchot (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research), Cleo Verkujl (Stockholm Environment Institute), Daniel Wetzel (International Energy Agency), Charlie Wilson (University of Oxford), Zhao Xiusheng (Tshingua University), Maja Z. Ulezic (DG-CLIMA), Edoardo Zandri (UNEP), Caroline Zimm (IIASA)VII Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window Chief scientific editors Anne Olhoff (CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank), John Christensen (CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank), Simon Maxwell (independent) Editorial support Julia Rocha Romero (UNEP-CCC) Secretariat, production and coordination Anne Olhoff (CONCITO – Denmark s green think tank), Julia Rocha Romero (UNEP-CCC), Kaisa Uusimaa (UNEP), Maarten Kappelle (UNEP), Edoardo Zandri (UNEP) Media and launch support UNEP: Daniel Cooney, Katie Elles, Maria Vittoria Galassi, Miranda Grant, Nancy Groves, Rune Kier, Michael Logan, Beverley McDonald, Duncan Moore, Pooja Munshi, Keishamaza Rukikaire, Nicolien Schoneveld-de Lange, Joyce Sang, Reagan Sirengo, Neha Sud and several other members of the UNEP Communication Division UNEP-CCC: Mette Annelie Rasmussen, Lasse Hemmingsen, Monna Hammershøy Blegvad Design and layout Caren Weeks Concept & Design (figures and tables), Strateg