《2022年排放差距报告：正在关闭的窗口期——气候危机急需社会快速转型》EGR2022.pdf

Emissions Gap Report 2022 The Closing Window Climate crisis calls for rapid transformation of societies 2022 United Nations Environment Programme ISBN 978-92-807-3979-4 Job number DEW/2477/NA This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The United Nations Environment Programme would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the United Nations Environment Programme. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Communication Division, United Nations Environment Programme, P.O. Box 30552, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. 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Supported by UNEP promotes environmentally sound practices globally and in its own activities. Our distribution policy aims to reduce UNEPs carbon footprint.The Closing Window Climate crisis calls for rapid transformation of societies Emissions Gap Report 2022V Emissions Gap Report 2022 The Closing Window Acknowledgements Acknowledgements The United Nations Environment Programme UNEP would like to thank the members of the steering committee, the lead and contributing authors, the reviewers, and the Secretariat for their contribution to the preparation of this assessment report. Authors and reviewers have contributed to the report in their individual capacities. Their affiliations are only mentioned for identification purposes. Steering committee Juliane Berger German Environment Agency, John Christensen CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank, Navroz K. Dubash Centre for Policy Research, India, Samuel Karslake Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, United Kingdom, Wael Farag Basyouny Keshk Ministry of Environment, Egypt, Jian Liu UNEP, Gerd Leipold Climate Transparency, Simon Maxwell independent, Surabi Menon ClimateWorks Foundation, Dirk Nemitz United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], Henry Neufeldt UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre [UNEP-CCC], Katia Simeonova independent, Youba Sokona Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], Oksana Tarasova World Meteorological Organization Authors Chapter 1 Authors Anne Olhoff CONCITO – Denmarks green think tank, John Christensen CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank Chapter 2 Lead authors William F. Lamb Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change and Priestley International Centre for Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, United Kingdom, Giacomo Grassi European Commission, Joint Research Centre [JRC], Italy Contributing authors Lucas Chancel World Inequality Lab, Paris School of Economics, France, Monica Crippa European Commission, JRC, Italy, Diego Guizzardi European Commission, JRC, Italy, Marilena Muntean European Commission, JRC, Italy, Jos Olivier PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands, Glen Peters CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Norway, Julia Pongratz Ludwig- Maximilians University Munich, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany Chapter 3 Lead authors Takeshi Kuramochi NewClimate Institute, Germany, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Taryn Fransen World Resources Institute, United States of America Contributing authors Caitling Bergh Energy Systems Research Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa, Anna Chapman Climate Analytics, Australia, Nandini Das Climate Analytics, Australia, Kim Coetzee Climate Transparency, Germany, Neil Grant Climate Analytics, Germany, Mariana Gutirrez HUMBOLDT-VIADRINA Governance Platform, Mexico, Gahee Han Solutions for Our Climate, Republic of Korea, Frederic Hans NewClimate Institute, Germany, Camilla Hyslop Net Zero Tracker and University of Oxford, United Kingdom, Jiang Kejun Energy Research Institute, China, Joojin Kim Solutions for Our Climate, Republic of Korea, Ben King Rhodium Group, United States of America, Aman Majid Climate Analytics, Germany, Andrew Marquard Energy Systems Research Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa, Bryce McCall Energy Systems Research Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa, Malte Meinshausen University of Melbourne, Australia, Mia Moisio NewClimate Institute, Germany, Silke Mooldijk NewClimate Institute, Germany, Leonardo Nascimento NewClimate Institute, Germany, Natalie Pelekh NewClimate Institute, Germany, Anne Olhoff CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank Jazmn Rocco Predassi Fundacin Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Argentina, Analuz Presbtero Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico, Mexico, Martin Birk Rasmussen CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank, Carley Reynolds Climate Analytics, Germany, Joeri Rogelj Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA], Austria, mit Şahin Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University and Stiftung Mercator, Trkiye, Clea Schumer World Resources Institute, United States of America, Kentaro Tamura Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan, Fabby Tumiwa Institute for Essential Services Reform, Indonesia, Farah Vianda Institute for Essential Services Reform, Indonesia, Jorge Villarreal Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico, Mexico, Claire Stokwell Climate Analytics, Germany, Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad [IIMA], India, Lisa Wijayani Institute for Essential Services Reform, Indonesia, William Wills Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Chapter 4 Lead authors Joeri Rogelj Imperial College London, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA], Austria, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands, Joana Portugal-Pereira Graduate School of Engineering [COPPE], Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Contributing authors Taryn Fransen World Resources Institute, United States of America, Gaurav Ganti Climate VI Emissions Gap Report 2022 The Closing Window Analytics, Germany, Jarmo Kikstra Imperial College London, United Kingdom, Alex Kberle Imperial College London, United Kingdom, Robin Lamboll Imperial College London, United Kingdom, Shivika Mittal Imperial College London, United Kingdom, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Climate Analytics, Germany, Clea Schumer World Resources Institute, United States of America Chapter 5 Lead authors Niklas Hhne NewClimate Institute, Germany, Kelly Levin Bezos Earth Fund, United States of America, Joyashree Roy Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand, and Jadavpur University, India Contributing authors Stephen Naimoli World Resources Institute, United States of America, Louise Jeffery NewClimate Institute, Germany, Judit Hecke NewClimate Institute, Germany, Joshua Miller International Council on Clean Transportation, United States of America Chapter 6 Lead authors Aline Mosnier Sustainable Development Solutions Network, France, Marco Springmann University of Oxford, United Kingdom, Shenggen Fan China Agricultural University, China Contributing authors Bruce Campbell Clim-EAT and University of Copenhagen, Denmark, Helen Harwatt Chatham House, United Kingdom, Julia Rocha Romero UNEP-CCC, Denmark, Wei Zhang CGIAR and International Food Policy Research Institute [IFPRI], United States of America Chapter 7 Lead authors Pieter Pauw Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands, Dipak Dasgupta The Energy and Resources Institute – TERI, India, Heleen de Coninck Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands Contributing authors Lilia Couto University College London Institute for Sustainable Resources and Chatham House, United Kingdom, Michael Knig the Frankfurt School – UNEP Centre for Climate and Sustainable Energy Finance, Germany, George Marbuah Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, Luis Zamarioli the Frankfurt School – UNEP Centre for Climate and Sustainable Energy Finance, Germany Reviewers Nadia Ameli University College London Jesica Andrews UNEP Finance Initiative, Marci Rose Baranski UNEP, Stefano Battiston University of Zurich, Juliane Berger German Environment Agency, Marina Bortoletti UNEP, Ruci Mafi Botei UNEP, David Carlin UNEP Finance Initiative, Piero Carlo dos Reis Directorate-General for Climate Action DG-CLIMA], Hugues Chenet University College London, John Christensen CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank, Ian Cochran University of Edinburgh Business School, Rene Colditz DG-CLIMA, Peter Cooleman Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Annette Cowie University of New England, Monica Crippa JRC, Krystal Crumpler Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO], Rob Dellink OECD, Paul Dowling DG-CLIMA, Navroz Dubash Centre for Policy Research, Florian Egli Energy and Technology Policy Group, James Foster Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Chad Frischmann Project Drawdown, Oliver Geden German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Bernat Goni-Ros DG- CLIMA, Niklas Hagelberg UNEP, Thomas Hale University of Oxford, Andrea Hinwood UNEP, Claire Hoolohan University of Manchester, Jason Jabbour UNEP, Narcis Jeler DG-CLIMA, Yasuko Kameyama National Institute for Environmental Studies, Maarten Kappelle UNEP, Samuel Karslake Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Wael Farag Basyouny Keshk Ministry of Environment, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, Thaddeus Idi Kiplimo UNEP, Johannes Klumpers DG- CLIMA, Boris Le Montagner UNEP Economy Division, Gerd Leipold Climate Transparency, Kai Lesmann Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Jian Liu UNEP, James Lomax UNEP, Phillip Lugmayr DG-CLIMA, Mark Lundy Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research, Dominic MacCormack UNEP, Maria Socorro Manguiat UNEP, Jade Maron UNEP, Simon Maxwell independent, Surabi Menon ClimateWorks Foundation, Bert Metz independent, Irene Monasterolo cole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales du Nord, Jongwoon Moon Yonsei University, Kanako Morita Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Susan Mutebi-Richards UNEP, Dirk Nemitz UNFCCC, Henry Neufeldt UNEP- CCC Clementine O’Connor UNEP, Rowan Palmer UNEP, Frederik Pischke German Environment Agency, Vicky Pollard DG-CLIMA, Friedemann Polzin Utrecht University, Kate Power Hot or Cool Coalition, Clara Rabelo Caiafa Pereira Eindhoven University of Technology, Raoni Rajo Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Elisabeth Resch UNEP-CCC, Cornelius Rhein DG-CLIMA, Yann Robiou du Pont Robiou du Pont Climate Energy College, Johanna Schiele DG-CLIMA, Laure-Sophie Schiettecatte FAO, Johannes Schuler DG-CLIMA, Xavier Seront DG-CLIMA, Himanshu Sharma UNEP, Katia Simeonova independent, Paul Smith UNEP Finance Initiative, Youba Sokona IPCC, Shreya Some Asian Institute of Technology, Sandhya Srinivasan World Bank, Jamal Srouji World Resources Institute, Richard Swannell WRAP, Kentaro Tamura Institute for Global Environmental Studies, Oksana Tarasova World Meteorological Organization, Sven Teske Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, Simone Westi Hjte CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank, Francesco Tubiello FAO, Jens van ‘t Klooster University of Amsterdam, Melvin van Velthoven DG- CLIMA, Louis Verchot Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research, Cleo Verkujl Stockholm Environment Institute, Daniel Wetzel International Energy Agency, Charlie Wilson University of Oxford, Zhao Xiusheng Tshingua University, Maja Z. Ulezic DG-CLIMA, Edoardo Zandri UNEP, Caroline Zimm IIASAVII Emissions Gap Report 2022 The Closing Window Chief scientific editors Anne Olhoff CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank, John Christensen CONCITO – Denmark’s green think tank, Simon Maxwell independent Editorial support Julia Rocha Romero UNEP-CCC Secretariat, production and coordination Anne Olhoff CONCITO – Denmarks green think tank, Julia Rocha Romero UNEP-CCC, Kaisa Uusimaa UNEP, Maarten Kappelle UNEP, Edoardo Zandri UNEP Media and launch support UNEP Daniel Cooney, Katie Elles, Maria Vittoria Galassi, Miranda Grant, Nancy Groves, Rune Kier, Michael Logan, Beverley McDonald, Duncan Moore, Pooja Munshi, Keishamaza Rukikaire, Nicolien Schoneveld-de Lange, Joyce Sang, Reagan Sirengo, Neha Sud and several other members of the UNEP Communication Division UNEP-CCC Mette Annelie Rasmussen, Lasse Hemmingsen, Monna Hammershy Blegvad Design and layout Caren Weeks Concept Design figures and tables, Strateg