中国40年可再生能源经验报告：政策、成就与经验教训（英）-世界银行.pdf

China: 40-Year Experience in Renewable Energy Development Policies, Achievements, and Lessons Learned Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized b Photo credits. Front Cover: Christophe de Gouvello Policies, Achievements, and Lessons Learned China: 40-Year Experience in Renewable Energy Development © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed by World Bank Staff or external contributors in this work do not reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Ch. de Gouvello (co-ord.), N. Berrah, LI Jufeng, Y. Song, et al., 2021. China: 40-Year Experience in Renewable Energy Development. Policies, Achievements, and Lessons Learned. The World Bank, Washington, DC. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org I Abbreviations . III Preface . V Acknowledgments VII Chapter 1. Introduction .1 A. From Lagger to Leader .2 B. The Long Journey .6 C. Structure of the Report .7 Part 1: The Quest for Sustainability .13 Chapter 2. The Early Years (Stage 1: Up to 1994) 15 A. Modest RE Development 17 B. Establishment of the Renewable Energy Management System .20 C. Major RE Policies of Stage 1 21 D. Building a Study and Research Base .22 E. Lessons Learned .23 Chapter 3. The Takeoff (Stage 2: 1995–2005) 25 A. Achievements in Stage 2 27 B. Policies Paving the Way to RE Development .27 C. International Cooperation .29 D. Implementation of Major Nationwide Resources Assessments and Programs 31 E. Lessons Learned 33 Chapter 4. From Lagger to Leader (Stage 3: 2006–2017) . 35 A. RE Development Boom .37 B. Strengthening the Policy Framework .38 C. International Cooperation .45 D. Key Projects 46 E. Lessons Learned .47 Chapter 5. The Way Forward (Stage 4: 2018 to Present) 49 A. Rising Concerns about Sustainability of RE Development .51 B. Toward New Consumption and Supply Models .54 C. Increased Market Orientation .54 TABLE OF CONTENTS II D. Completing and Rationalizing the Legal Framework 57 E. Building the ‘Green, Low-carbon, Secure, and Efficient’ Energy System 58 F. Lessons Learned 59 G. The Way Forward: The Challenges Ahead to Implement the ‘Energy Revolution’ .60 Part 2: The development of the four main renewable energy industries . 63 Chapter 6. Wind Industry . 65 A. The Achievements of the Wind Industry .68 B. The Infancy 70 C. The Takeoff (1995–2005) .72 D. The Boom of the Wind Industry (2006–2017) .74 E. Commercialization Development Stage (2018 to Present) .77 F. Building the Implementation Capacity78 G. Lessons Learned 81 Chapter 7. Solar PV Industry . 83 A. Achievements of the Solar PV Industry .86 B. The Infancy (before 2000) 89 C. The Rise of Private Sector (2001 to 2010) .90 D. Massive Expansion (2011–2017) 92 E. Back to the Fundamentals (2018 to Present) 94 F. Building a Solar PV Implementation Capacity 94 G. Lessons Learned 97 Chapter 8. Hydropower 99 A. The Achievement of the Hydropower Industry 101 B. The Reconstruction (1949–1977) .102 C. Learning and Catching Up with Hydropower Leaders (1978–2000) 103 D. Access to Leadership Status (2001 to Present) .105 E. Lessons Learned 107 Chapter 9. The Biomass Energy Industry 109 A. The Achievements of the Biomass Energy Industry .112 B. The Early Years (up to 1994) .113 C. The Diversification Stage (1995–2005) 114 D. The Catch-Up Stage (2006 to Present) 117 E. Lessons Learned .121 III Abbreviations ABC Agricultural Bank of China APAC Asia-Pacific ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BOS Balance of System CCICED China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development CDM Clean Development Mechanism CFB Circulating Fluidized Bed CHP Combined Heat and Power CIGS Copper Indium Gallium Selenide CIWRHR China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research CMA China Meteorological Administration CNCA Certification and Accreditation Administration of the People’s Republic of China CNREC China National Renewable Energy Center COD Chemical Oxygen Demand CPC Communist Party of China CPIA China Photovoltaic Industry Association CRESP China Renewable Energy Scale-Up Program CSIC China Shipbuilding Industry Company CSP Concentrated Solar Power CWEA Chinese Wind Energy Association EMCA China Association of Energy Management Companies ESCO Energy Saving Services Company FiT Feed-In Tariff FYP Five-Year Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse Gas GIZ German Agency for International Cooperation (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit) HJT Heterojunction Technology HVDC High-Voltage Direct Current ICSHP International Small Hydropower Center IEC International Electrotechnical Commission IFC International Finance Corporation IPP Independent Power Producer MoA Ministry of Agriculture MoALF Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries IV MoARA Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs MoF Ministry of Finance MoIIT Ministry of Industry and Information Technology MoST Ministry of Science and Technology MoWRE Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity MSW Municipal Solid Waste NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NDRC National Development and Reform Commission NEA National Energy Administration NEC National Economic Commission NPB National Price Bureau NPC National People’s Congress NSTC National Science and Technology Commission PERC Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell PPA Power Purchase Agreement PV Photovoltaic R Mr. WANG Weiquan, Secretary General, Energy Ms. Li Dan, Executive Secretary General, Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association(CREIA); Mr. YUAN Xiaoyang, Project Specialist, Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association; Ms. WANG Qian, Project Specialist, Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association; Ms. MA Lifang, Policy Research Director, Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association; Mr. YU Yang, Project Specialist, Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association. The team would like to thank the whole World Bank-China Energy Team for the support provided, in particular Na Han, Team Assistant and Zijing Niu, World Bank consultant for knowledge management and coordination under CWPF. The task team would also like to express its thanks to the peer-reviewers Gabriela Elizondo Azuela, World Bank Global Lead Clean Energy, and Dejan R. Ostojic, World Bank Lead Energy Specialist. 1 Chapter 1. Introduction Key Messages China leapfrogged from a laggard to a leader in renewable energy (RE) development in less than four decades: (a) installed RE power generation capacity increased from about 20 GW in 1980 to nearly 795 GW in 2019, the largest capacity in the world, accounting for more than 31 percent of the global RE generation installed capacity and (b) total commercial renewable energy utilization increased from about 24 million tons of coal equivalent (tce) in 1980, about 4 percent of the total primary energy consumption, to 637 million tce in 2019, about 13.1 percent of the country’s primary energy consumption. Up to 2017, China’s RE development can be divided into three stages, marked by two major policies: • The first stage titled ‘The Early Years’ extends up to 1994, the year of the adoption of China’s ‘Agenda 21’, which identified RE as an independent energy subsector. This marked an uptick in hydropower development, reaching 49 GW, and during this stage, China initiated several international cooperation and pilot projects for wind and solar, reaching 29 MW of wind and 5 MW of solar photovoltaic (PV). The use of RE began to extend from rural areas to the entire energy system in China. The non-power RE utilization also increased significantly with the installation of 2.9 million m 2 of solar heaters and the 1.3 billion m 2 of biogas production per year. Main lessons from this period: balance top-down with decentralized approach, engage volunteers from the local population, establish strong research and development (R clear mid- and long-term ambitious goals are prerequisites to develop sustainable RE development; a sound bid evaluation methodology is essential to the success of competition; and continued international cooperation is important to improve knowledge and build capacity. 2 • The third stage titled ‘From Lagger to Leader’ covers 2006 to 2017. After the issuance of the Renewable Energy Law, China committed to ambitious RE development targets, which were always achieved or surpassed, except for biomass. During successive Five-Year Plans (FYPs) (2006 to 2020), the development was supported by several policies and fiscal and financial incentives, which included feed-in tariffs, state and provincial capital subsidies, and specific initiatives such as the ‘Top Runner’ and ‘Golden Sun’ PV programs. These propelled China to a leading position in RE development and reach by 2017 hydropower of 341 GW, wind power of 164 GW, and solar PV of 130 GW. Main lessons from this period: feed-in tariffs are effective in building capacity but could lead to inacceptable levels of subsidies in case of a dramatic drop of actual investment costs; aggressive RE development programs can lead to inefficiency, including curtailment; and fast development allowed China to quickly develop a globally competitive wind and PV industry. The period from 2018 to present is titled ‘The Way Forward’. Major changes have been undertaken by the government to address the ballooning subsidies stemming from the momentous increase in capacity and electricity production of wind at the beginning of the third stage followed by PV as the prices began to decrease in the late 2000s. It is expected that (a) the development of renewable energy will be more market oriented and the auction approach will be streamlined and regulated; (b) renewable energy would be deployed at a faster pace following the issuance of the Quota Policy in 2019, imposing RE obligations on distributors and large consumers (Chinese version of renewable portfolio standards [RPS]); (c) the emergence of battery and other means of power storage and their decreasing costs would make intermittent technologies, mainly PV, more prominent in China’s energy growth; and (d) the enactment of the new Energy Law, under consultation, would address the inconsistencies among the different laws governing the sector and adapt the legal framework for a future characterized by the increased dominance of RE. 1. China made impressive progress in developing renewable energy to provide access to clean energy and electricity to its predominantly rural population before the economic boom that followed the ‘open door policy’, 3 by improving energy supply to the economy as the country industrialized and urbanized at an extremely fast pace and finally by fighting debilitating local pollution and mitigating the impact of climate change. Through that journey, China has accumulated a considerable amount of experience and learned many lessons. Its evolution from a low-income to a middle-high income country and its wide geographical diversity brought about extensive challenges, many of which are similar to those facing a wide range of developing countries who are willing to further rely on renewable energy to address their own energy needs. This report attempts to present the Chinese rich and diversified experience and draw the lessons learned that might inform decision-making in these countries. A. From Lagger to Leader 2. The total commercial RE utilization increased from about 24 million tce in 1980, about 4 percent of the total primary energy consumption, mainly from small hydropower and biogas, to 637 million tce in 2019, about 13.1 percent of the country’s primary energy consumption (see Figure 1.1). This progress contributed to achieving the 15 percent of non-fossil fuel (nuclear and RE) share in the primary energy consumption target set for 2020 by the middle of the 13th FYP (2016–2020), more than one year ahead of schedule. 3 In China s modern economic history, the open door policy refers to the new policy announced by Deng Xiaoping in December 1978 to ‘open the door’ to foreign businesses that wanted to set up in China. Special economic zones (SEZs) were set up in 1980 to attract foreign direct investment, which was deemed necessary to modernize China s industry and boost its economy. 3 Figure 1.1: Commercial Renewable Energy Utilization and Share of Primary Energy Consumption 0 5 10 15 0 200 400 600 800 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 S ha re o f C o mm e r c i a l R E U t ili z a t i on i n T o t a l Pr i m a r y E ne r g y C on s u m p t i o n ( % ) C o mm e r c i a l U t ili z a t i o n ( m illi o n t c e ) Others Biogas Bio Fuel Other RE Power Solar PV Windpower Hydropower Source: Study team 4 . 3. The installed capacity of RE power generation increased from slightly more than 20 GW 5 in 1980 to nearly 795 GW in 2019, the largest capacity in the world, accounting for more than 31 percent of the global installed capacity. It surpassed the combined capacity installed in the United States, Brazil, and Germany by 44 percent. 6 4. Hydropower plants, large and small, amounted to 20 GW in 1980, about 30 percent of China’s installed power generation capacity. By 2019, installed hydropower capacity had reached more than 358 GW, followed by wind with 210 GW, solar with 204 GW, and others combining for 22 GW. The total accounted for 39.5 percent of China’s generation capacity, with hydro totaling 17.8 percent, wind 10.4 percent, solar 10.2 percent, and other technologies (mainly biomass) slightly more than 1.1 percent (see Figure 1.2). 4 Based on China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2018, China Renewable Energy Data Book 2012 and 2019. The 2019 data of biofuel and bio gas are not published yet. 5 This important number is indicative of the efforts deployed by China to develop RE to provide its huge rural population with modern energy. However, it remains modest compared to the size of the population, and the installed capacity per capita at the time was about 20.4 W. 6 Source: Renewable Energy Statistics 2019, IRENA. 4 Figure 1.2: RE Installed Capacity and Share in Total Installed Capacity in China 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 100 200 300 400 50