2022年全球电动汽车电池供应链报告（英）-IEA.pdf

Global Supply Chains of EV Batteries The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 10 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t Ni = nickel; Co = cobalt; Gr = graphite; DRC = Democratic Republic of Congo. Geographical breakdown refers to the country where the production occurs. Mining is based on production data. Material processing is based on refining production capacity data. Cell component production is based on cathode and anode material production capacity data. Battery cell production is based on battery cell production capacity data. EV production is based on EV production data. Although Indonesia produces around 40% of total nickel, little of this is currently used in the EV battery supply chain. The largest Class 1 battery- grade nickel producers are Russia, Canada and Australia. Sources: IEA analysis based on: EV Volumes; US Geological Survey (2022); Benchmark Mineral Intelligence; Bloomberg NEF. China Europe United States Japan Korea DRC Australia Indonesia Russia Other Battery production Battery cells Cathode Anode Cell components 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Li Ni Co Gr Mining Li Ni Co Gr Material processing EV production EVs Global supply chains of EV batteries PAGE | 6 EV batteries and supply chains Battery metal prices increased dramatically in early 2022, posing a significant challenge to the EV industry Battery metals prices, 2015 – July 2022 IEA. All rights reserved. Sources: IEA analysis based on S PLDVs = passenger light-duty vehicles; other includes medium- and heavy-duty trucks and two/three-wheelers. This analysis does not include conventional hybrid vehicles. Sources: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 G W h per y ear PLDVs Bus Other 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 G W h per y ear China Europe United States Other Global supply chains of EV batteries PAGE | 10 EV batteries and supply chains High-nickel cathode battery chemistries remain dominant though lithium iron phosphate is making a comeback Mineral composition of different battery cathodes LDV EV cathode sales share, 2017-2021 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: LDV = light-duty vehicle; LFP = lithium iron phosphate; NMC = lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide; NCA = lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide. Low-nickel includes: NMC333. High-nickel includes: NMC532, NMC622, NMC721, NMC811, NCA and NMCA. Cathode sales share is based on capacity. Sources: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% NMC333 NMC811 NCA85 LFP M i ner al c ont ent ( % ) Lithium Nickel Cobalt Manganese Aluminium Iron and phosphorous 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 B at t er y c apac i t y s har e ( % ) Low-nickel High-nickel LFP Other Global supply chains of EV batteries PAGE | 11 EV batteries and supply chains Battery demand for EVs doubled in 2021 Automotive lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery demand was 340 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2021, more than twice the level of 2020. This increase is driven by the increase in electric passenger cars (registrations increased by 120%). The average battery capacity of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) was 55 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2021, down from 56 kWh in 2020, whereas the average capacity increased for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to 14 kWh in 2021, up from 13 kWh in 2020. Battery demand for other transport modes, including medium- and heavy-duty trucks and two/three-wheelers, increased by 65%. Average battery capacities for BEV light-duty vehicles changed regionally, with increases of more than 10% occurring in Korea and several European countries. 1 China experienced unprecedented growth and accounted for the largest share of automotive battery demand, with almost 200 GWh of battery demand in 2021, up 140% from 2020. Growth was also impressive in the United States where demand more than doubled in 2021, albeit from a lower base. Europe’s demand growth was slightly lower than last year, yet it still increased more than 70%. The surge in battery demand was met in 2021 due to sufficient battery factory capacity. The nameplate capacity of a factory is the intended full-load sustained output of a facility. Calculated as total demand of 1 This report is an excerpt from the Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022 EVs, consumer electronics, and stationary storage batteries over the nameplate capacities of all battery plants, the global average utilisation rate for battery factories was 43% of nameplate capacity in 2021, up from 33% in 2020. The low global average utilisation rate is explained by two primary factors. First, there was strategic early investment in battery plant capacity to prepare for projected demand growth. Second, some factories are still ramping up production capacity to reach nameplate capacity, a process that can take from three to six years. Nickel-based battery chemistries remain dominant A key defining feature of batteries is their cathode chemistry, which determines both the battery performance and its material demand. For the automotive sector, three broad categories of cathode chemistry are most relevant today: lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC); lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide (NCA); and lithium iron phosphate (LFP). NMC and NCA cathodes have become increasingly dominant as they offer high energy density based on higher nickel content in the cathode. Higher nickel content, however, requires more complex and controlled production processes. LFP is a lower cost and more stable chemistry, with lower risk of catching fire and a longer cycle life. It typically only has 65 - 75% of the energy Global supply chains of EV batteries PAGE | 12 EV batteries and supply chains density compared with a high-nickel NMC such as NMC811, although recent technology innovations have significantly improved their energy density. NCA is used exclusively by Tesla. Nickel-based chemistries, such as NMC and NCA, were dominant in the electric car battery market in 2021 with 75% of cathode material demand share due to their advantages for driving range. However, there has been a major resurgence of LFP over the last two years, reaching an EV cathode material demand share of 25%, mainly driven by the increased uptake of electric cars in China. LFP is still used for most medium- and heavy-duty vehicle applications due to its superior cycle life, which suits intensive usage and frequent charging, and the fact that most electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are in China, where LFP is mainly used. The cost advantages for LFP in China became more apparent recently as subsidies that favoured high-nickel chemistries were phased out. Cathode and anode demand surged alongside battery demand in 2021. Demand for cathode material reached 520 kilotonnes (kt), more than doubling from 2020. Demand for anode material also doubled to reach 300 kt. The significantly higher material requirement for cathode material is due to the much higher energy densities of the graphite anodes in comparison to leading cathodes, thus requiring less anode material per cell. Battery cathode and anode material demand IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: kt = kilotonnes; LFP = lithium iron phosphate. Nickel-based cathode includes: lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide NMC333, NMC532, NMC622, NMC721, NMC811; lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide (NCA) and lithium nickel manganese cobalt aluminium oxide (NMCA). Sources: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes. 0 250 500 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 k t Anode Other cathode Nickel-based cathode LFP cathode Global supply chains of EV batteries PAGE | 13 EV batteries and supply chains Resurgence of LFP Nickel-based chemistries retained dominance of the market in 2021 with 85% of EV battery demand. However, there has been a major resurgence of LFP battery chemistries over the last two years with 15% of EV battery demand in 2021, doubling from 7% in 2020, primarily driven by increasing uptake of LFP in electric cars in China. LFP demand share in LDVs in China more than doubled from 11% in 2020 to 25% in 2021, despite the lower energy density of LFP than high-nickel chemistries. Given high battery metal prices, LFP has become more attractive as it contains no cobalt or nickel, instead using low cost iron and phosphorous (though remaining exposed to rising lithium prices). LFP relies on lithium carbonate rather than hydroxide used for nickel-rich chemistries. The cost advantages of LFP in a high commodity price market are one reason for the resurgence. Another is the recent innovation of cell-to-pack (CTP) technology, eliminating the need for modules to house cells in the battery pack, thereby reducing the dead weight in the pack and improving the energy density of LFP batteries. CTP technology was pioneered by BYD with the Blade battery and it continues to be improved. CATL released their third-generation CTP battery increasing the LFP pack energy density to around 85% of a conventional NMC811 battery. CTP is also being applied to high-nickel chemistries to further improve their energy density. LFP production is mostly limited to China – the traditional main hub for the LFP battery chemistry. One reason for this is LFP patents; the research consortium owning the patents formed an agreement with battery makers in China in which they would not be charged a licence fee for using LFP if only used in China. These patents and licence fees are set to expire in 2022 making production and sales abroad more attractive. Another key reason is the early subsidies in the LFP supply chain in China. LFP is now set to surge globally. Recently, major non-Chinese EV manufacturers, such as Tesla and Volkswagen, announced moves to LFP chemistries for entry-level high volume EV models. Almost half of all Tesla EVs produced in the first-quarter of 2022 used LFP. LFP battery production is now planned in Europe and the United States to meet anticipated LFP demand for EVs in these regions. A surge in LFP poses a challenge for battery recycling as it is difficult to make a profit recovering iron and phosphorous. Without valuable metals such as nickel and cobalt, the value that can be recovered from LFP batteries drops considerably from conventional recycling methods and its economic viability is a concern. LFP appears to require direct recycling to be profitable or will require regulatory intervention, frameworks or alternative business models. – Global supply chains of EV batteries PAGE | 14 EV batteries and supply chains Battery metal prices increased dramatically in early 2022, posing a significant challenge to the EV industry Battery metals prices, 2015 – July 2022 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: Lithium prices are from June 2022. Cobalt and Nickel from July 2022 Sources: IEA analysis based on S second, concerns around Class 1 nickel supply from Russia; and third, structural underinvestment in new supply capacity during the three years preceding 2021 when metal prices were low. Some producers delayed or even curtailed planned projects and expansions due to low lithium prices. For example, the Australian mining company Galaxy Resources reduced lithium mine production at its most important mine by about 40% in 2019 as did other Australian lithium mining companies. The last time there was a price surge in battery metal prices was for lithium and cobalt in 2017 due to optimistic expectations for growth in battery demand, before prices collapsed in 2018. Lithium has reached unprecedented price levels today being almost 200% higher than its previous peak. Cobalt prices are also up sharply in recent months, although they are not yet at at the level experienced at its peak. This likely reflects lower demand expectations due to low cobalt chemistries gaining battery market share. Supply issues, such as disruptions in port operations in South Africa caused by the pandemic and civil unrest also contributed to the cobalt price increases. Quarterly drilling activity by commodity type, 2020-2021 IEA. All rights reserved. Sources: IEA analysis based on S battery production by MWh produced; cathode and anode by production capacity; mining by production capacity. Top-three companies by production (country where headquartered): lithium - Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (Chile); Pilbara Minerals (Australia); Allkem (Australia); nickel - Jinchuan Group (China); BHP Group (Australia); Vale SA (Brazil); cathode - Sumitomo (Japan); Tianjin B Shenzhen Dynanonic (China); anode - Ningbo Shanshan (China); BTR New Energy Materials (China); Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology (China); battery production - CATL (China); LG Energy Solution (Korea); Panasonic (Japan); EV production - Tesla (United States); VW Group (Germany); and BYD (China). Sources: IEA analysis based on Benchmark Mineral Intelligence; Bloomberg NEF; S Pilbara Minerals (Australia); Allkem (Australia); Livent Corporation (United States); and Ganfeng Lithium Co. (China). Unlike for other battery metals, lithium extraction companies tend to be specialised in lithium mining and chemical companies. Nickel is found primarily in two types of deposit – sulphide and laterite. Sulphide deposits are mainly located in Russia, Canada and Australia and tend to contain higher grade nickel. It is more easily processed into Class 1 battery-grade nickel. Laterite, however, tends to contain lower grade nickel and is mainly found in Indonesia, Philippines and New Caledonia. Laterite requires additional energy intensive processing to become battery-grade nickel. Nickel production is less concentrated than lithium with about nine companies supplying half of global nickel production. Key nickel Global supply chains of EV batteries PAGE | 22 EV batteries and supply chains suppliers include: Jinchuan Group (China); BHP Group (Australia); Vale SA (Brazil); Tsingshan (China); Nickel Asia Corporation (Philippines); and Glencore (Switzerland). Cobalt is predominantly mined as a by-product of copper or nickel mining. Over 70% of cobalt is produced in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Glencore (Switzerland) is the largest global producer. Other key cobalt suppliers include: Jinchuan Group (China); CN Molybdenum (China); and Chemaf (DRC). Artisanal and small-scale mining is responsible for 10 – 20% of cobalt production in the DRC. Graphite is the dominant anode material and can be found naturally or produced synthetically. Natural graphite mining is domi